Pittsburgh Pirates Playoff Chances 2018

Beat Brewers 431-271.5, playoff odds up 20 to 53.4%

1-0-0 1.000

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Pirates finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

18.5	-20						In		100												1,252	*
18		17	-	2	-	0	In		100	0											3,445	*
17	.5	16	-	2	-	1	In		100	0											2,125	*
17		16	-	3	-	0	In		100	0		0									16,599	*
16	.5	15	-	3	-	1	In		99	1	0	0									9,768	*
16		15	-	4	-	0	In		97	2	0	0									55,005
		14	-	3	-	2	In		98	1		0									2,782	*
15	.5	14	-	4	-	1	In		95	4	0	1									31,836	*
15		14	-	5	-	0	100.0	%	89	9	0	2	0								141,840
		13	-	4	-	2	In		90	8	0	2									8,582	*
14	.5	13	-	5	-	1	100.0		82	15	0	3	0								76,961	*
14		13	-	6	-	0	100.0		67	24	2	7	0								284,986
		12	-	5	-	2	100.0		68	24	1	6	0								18,671	*
13	.5	12	-	6	-	1	99.8		52	33	4	11	0	0							139,960
		11	-	5	-	3	100.0		53	32	4	11	0								2,817	*
13		12	-	7	-	0	98.9		32	39	9	18	1	0							455,703
		11	-	6	-	2	98.9		33	39	9	18	1	0							32,204	*
12	.5	11	-	7	-	1	96.4		17	39	16	26	3	0	0						208,010
		10	-	6	-	3	96.3		17	39	16	24	4	0							4,360	*
12		11	-	8	-	0	87.9		6	28	24	30	11	1	0	0					588,028
		10	-	7	-	2	88.4		6	29	24	30	10	1	0						43,650	*
11	.5	10	-	8	-	1	72.7		1	15	27	28	22	5	0	0	0				245,561
		9	-	7	-	3	72.1		1	15	28	28	22	5	0	0					5,561	*
11		10	-	9	-	0	48.4		0	6	24	18	30	17	4	0	0	0			618,834
		9	-	8	-	2	49.1		0	6	24	19	30	17	4	0	0				47,085	*
10	.5	9	-	9	-	1	25.3		0	1	17	7	26	31	14	3	0	0			234,046
		8	-	8	-	3	26.3		0	1	18	7	25	30	15	3	0				5,391	*
10		9	-	10	-	0	11.6			0	10	2	12	28	30	15	3	0	0		531,904
		8	-	9	-	2	11.5			0	10	2	12	29	30	14	3	0	0		40,217	*
9	.5	8	-	10	-	1	4.2			0	4	0	2	14	32	31	14	3	0	0	181,285
		7	-	9	-	3	4.2				4	0	3	14	30	32	14	3	0		4,058	*
9		8	-	11	-	0	1.7			0	2	0	0	4	16	32	30	13	3	0	373,444
		7	-	10	-	2	1.4				1		0	4	16	32	30	14	3	0	27,609	*
8	.5	7	-	11	-	1	0.4				0	0	0	0	4	18	35	30	10	1	113,239
		6	-	10	-	3	0.5				0			0	4	18	36	32	9	1	2,446	*
8		7	-	12	-	0	0.1				0		0	0	1	7	23	37	25	6	213,743
		6	-	11	-	2	0.1				0		0	0	1	6	23	37	26	6	15,230	*
7	.5	6	-	12	-	1	0.0				0			0	0	1	10	32	41	16	58,172	*
7		6	-	13	-	0	Out								0	0	3	20	45	32	98,349
		5	-	12	-	2	Out									0	3	18	45	33	6,388	*
6	.5	5	-	13	-	1	Out									0	1	8	39	52	22,613	*
6		5	-	14	-	0	Out										0	4	29	68	35,986
		4	-	13	-	2	Out										0	3	29	69	2,101	*
5	.5	4	-	14	-	1	Out											1	17	82	7,131	*
5		4	-	15	-	0	Out										0	0	10	90	10,837	*
4	.5	3	-	15	-	1	Out												4	96	1,619	*
4		3	-	16	-	0	Out											0	2	98	2,313	*
3	.5	2	-	16	-	1	Out												1	99	242	*
3		2	-	17	-	0	Out												1	99	328	*
1	-2.5						Out													100	596	*

Total:							53.4	%	17	14	12	12	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	2	5,034,912

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24

18.5	-20						100
18		17	-	2	-	0	100	0
17	.5	16	-	2	-	1	98	2
17		16	-	3	-	0	98	2	0
16	.5	15	-	3	-	1	93	7	0
16		15	-	4	-	0	93	7	0	0
		14	-	3	-	2	79	19	2	0
15	.5	14	-	4	-	1	76	21	2	0	0
15		14	-	5	-	0	76	21	2	0	0				0
		13	-	4	-	2	46	39	13	2	0	0
14	.5	13	-	5	-	1	44	39	14	3	0	0	0		0
14		13	-	6	-	0	43	39	14	3	0	0			0
		12	-	5	-	2	13	31	31	17	6	1	0	0	0
13	.5	12	-	6	-	1	12	30	32	18	6	1	0	0	0	0
		11	-	5	-	3	1	7	18	28	25	15	6	1	0
13		12	-	7	-	0	11	29	32	19	7	1	0	0	1	0
		11	-	6	-	2	1	6	17	27	26	16	6	1	1	0	0	0
12	.5	11	-	7	-	1	1	5	16	26	26	16	6	1	3	0	0	0
		10	-	6	-	3		0	1	5	16	28	31	15	2	2	0	0	0
12		11	-	8	-	0	1	4	14	23	24	15	6	1	11	1	0	0	0
		10	-	7	-	2	0	0	1	4	13	26	29	15	5	4	2	0	0	0	0
11	.5	10	-	8	-	1	0	0	1	3	10	21	24	13	13	10	4	1	0	0	0
		9	-	7	-	3				0	0	4	21	47	2	5	8	7	4	2	1	0	0	0
11		10	-	9	-	0	0	0	0	2	7	14	17	9	25	18	7	2	0	0	0
		9	-	8	-	2				0	0	2	13	34	3	9	13	12	8	4	1	0	0	0	0
10	.5	9	-	9	-	1			0	0	0	1	7	18	4	13	19	18	12	6	2	0	0	0	0
		8	-	8	-	3						0	1	25	0	0	2	6	11	17	17	12	6	3	1	0	0
10		9	-	10	-	0				0	0	0	3	8	4	14	22	22	15	7	3	1	0	0	0
		8	-	9	-	2						0	0	11	0	0	1	5	13	19	20	15	9	4	1	0	0	0
9	.5	8	-	10	-	1						0	0	4	0	0	1	5	13	21	22	18	10	4	1	0	0	0
		7	-	9	-	3								4				0	0	1	4	11	19	24	19	11	4	1	0	0
9		8	-	11	-	0						0	0	2	0	0	1	4	12	20	23	19	12	5	2	0	0	0
		7	-	10	-	2							0	1				0	0	1	4	10	19	24	21	13	5	2	0	0
8	.5	7	-	11	-	1							0	0				0	0	1	3	9	18	24	22	14	6	2	0	0
		6	-	10	-	3								0							0	0	1	4	13	24	30	19	7	2
8		7	-	12	-	0								0				0	0	1	3	8	17	24	23	15	7	2	0	0
		6	-	11	-	2								0							0	0	1	4	12	22	28	21	9	2
7	.5	6	-	12	-	1								0							0	0	1	3	11	22	28	22	10	2
7		6	-	13	-	0															0	0	1	3	10	21	29	23	11	2
		5	-	12	-	2																		0	0	3	12	30	35	20
6	.5	5	-	13	-	1																	0	0	0	2	11	29	37	20
6		5	-	14	-	0																		0	0	2	11	28	38	21
		4	-	13	-	2																				0	1	8	35	55
5	.5	4	-	14	-	1																				0	1	8	34	57
5		4	-	15	-	0																				0	1	7	33	59
4	.5	3	-	15	-	1																						0	14	85
4		3	-	16	-	0																						0	13	87
3	.5	2	-	16	-	1																							5	95
3		2	-	17	-	0																							4	96
1	-2.5																													100

Total:							9	8	7	7	6	6	5	5	6	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1