Washington Nationals Playoff Chances 2018 50/50

Lost to Mets 470-471.5, playoff odds down 8.6 to 24.7%

0-1-0 .000

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Nationals finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

17.5	-19						In		100												261	*
17		17	-	2	-	0	In		100	0											377	*
16	.5	16	-	2	-	1	In		100												255	*
16		16	-	3	-	0	In		98	1		0									2,242	*
15	.5	15	-	3	-	1	In		97	3		0									1,357	*
15		15	-	4	-	0	In		92	6	0	2									8,875	*
14	.5	14	-	4	-	1	In		87	11	0	3									5,366	*
14		14	-	5	-	0	99.9	%	73	19	1	7	0								25,129
		13	-	4	-	2	99.9		75	19	1	6	0								1,414	*
13	.5	13	-	5	-	1	99.8		59	27	2	11	0								14,649	*
13		13	-	6	-	0	98.9		38	35	6	19	1	0							59,326
		12	-	5	-	2	98.9		41	35	6	18	1								3,866	*
12	.5	12	-	6	-	1	96.6		21	37	12	27	3	0							31,204
		11	-	5	-	3	96.1		21	37	11	27	4	0							616	*
12		12	-	7	-	0	87.4		8	28	18	33	11	1	0						109,521
		11	-	6	-	2	88.4		8	29	19	32	10	1							7,786	*
11	.5	11	-	7	-	1	71.8		2	16	23	31	23	5	0	0					53,398
		10	-	6	-	3	72.0		2	16	24	30	22	6	0						1,175	*
11		11	-	8	-	0	45.2		0	6	19	19	32	18	4	0	0				165,491
		10	-	7	-	2	46.2		0	7	20	20	32	18	4	0	0				12,041	*
10	.5	10	-	8	-	1	22.3		0	1	14	7	27	32	15	3	0	0			73,911
		9	-	7	-	3	21.6		0	1	13	7	26	33	17	3	0				1,673	*
10		10	-	9	-	0	8.6			0	7	2	12	29	30	16	4	0	0		202,124
		9	-	8	-	2	8.5			0	7	2	12	28	31	16	4	0	0		15,109	*
9	.5	9	-	9	-	1	2.9			0	3	0	2	13	30	33	16	3	0	0	82,305
		8	-	8	-	3	2.3				2	0	2	12	30	34	16	4	0		1,810	*
9		9	-	10	-	0	0.9			0	1	0	0	3	14	30	31	16	4	0	201,572
		8	-	9	-	2	0.9				1	0	0	3	14	30	32	16	3	0	15,211	*
8	.5	8	-	10	-	1	0.2				0		0	0	3	15	33	33	13	2	74,093
		7	-	9	-	3	0.1				0			0	3	16	34	33	13	2	1,636	*
8		8	-	11	-	0	0.0				0			0	1	5	20	37	29	8	164,306
		7	-	10	-	2	0.0				0			0	0	5	20	36	30	8	12,319	*
7	.5	7	-	11	-	1	0.0				0			0	0	1	7	28	43	21	53,855
		6	-	10	-	3	Out								0	1	5	29	45	20	1,203	*
7		7	-	12	-	0	Out								0	0	2	16	43	38	109,868
		6	-	11	-	2	Out									0	2	16	44	38	7,790	*
6	.5	6	-	12	-	1	Out									0	0	6	35	59	31,349
		5	-	11	-	3	Out										0	7	32	61	603	*
6		6	-	13	-	0	Out										0	2	25	73	59,310
		5	-	12	-	2	Out										0	2	25	73	3,852	*
5	.5	5	-	13	-	1	Out										0	1	14	86	14,555	*
5		5	-	14	-	0	Out										0	0	8	92	25,488
		4	-	13	-	2	Out											0	7	93	1,491	*
4	.5	4	-	14	-	1	Out												3	97	5,238	*
4		4	-	15	-	0	Out											0	2	98	8,771	*
3	.5	3	-	15	-	1	Out												1	99	1,396	*
3		3	-	16	-	0	Out												0	100	2,197	*
2	.5	2	-	16	-	1	Out													100	265	*
2		2	-	17	-	0	Out												0	100	414	*
0	-1.5						Out													100	241	*

Total:							24.7	%	5	6	6	7	8	8	9	9	9	10	10	11	1,678,304

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24

17.5	-19						100
17		17	-	2	-	0	99	1
16	.5	16	-	2	-	1	98	2
16		16	-	3	-	0	94	6	0
15	.5	15	-	3	-	1	81	18	1	0
15		15	-	4	-	0	78	20	2	0
14	.5	14	-	4	-	1	48	38	11	2	0
14		14	-	5	-	0	47	38	13	2	0				0
		13	-	4	-	2	12	32	32	17	6	1		0	0
13	.5	13	-	5	-	1	13	31	31	17	6	1	0	0	0
13		13	-	6	-	0	12	30	31	18	6	1	0	0	1	0
		12	-	5	-	2	1	6	17	25	26	17	6	1	1	0
12	.5	12	-	6	-	1	1	5	15	25	27	17	6	1	3	0	0
		11	-	5	-	3		0	1	4	14	27	34	16	2	1	1	0
12		12	-	7	-	0	1	4	13	22	24	17	6	1	11	2	0	0
		11	-	6	-	2		0	1	3	12	24	31	18	4	5	2	1	0	0
11	.5	11	-	7	-	1	0	0	1	3	9	19	26	16	10	10	6	2	0	0	0
		10	-	6	-	3					0	3	17	51	2	3	5	7	6	3	1	0
11		11	-	8	-	0		0	0	2	5	12	16	11	20	20	11	4	1	0	0
		10	-	7	-	2					0	2	11	33	1	6	11	13	11	7	3	1	0	0	0
10	.5	10	-	8	-	1				0	0	1	5	16	2	7	14	18	17	12	5	2	0	0	0
		9	-	7	-	3							1	21		0	1	2	6	12	16	17	13	8	3	1	0	0
10		10	-	9	-	0				0	0	0	2	7	2	8	16	21	20	15	7	3	1	0	0	0
		9	-	8	-	2						0	0	8		0	0	2	6	12	18	19	17	10	5	1	0	0	0
9	.5	9	-	9	-	1							0	3	0	0	0	2	6	12	18	21	19	12	6	2	0	0	0
		8	-	8	-	3								2					0	0	1	4	11	18	24	21	12	6	1	0
9		9	-	10	-	0							0	1	0	0	0	2	5	11	17	21	20	14	7	2	0	0	0
		8	-	9	-	2								1				0	0	0	1	4	9	17	23	22	15	7	2	0
8	.5	8	-	10	-	1								0				0	0	0	1	3	8	16	23	23	16	7	2	0
		7	-	9	-	3								0									0	1	5	13	26	28	20	6
8		8	-	11	-	0								0				0	0	0	1	3	8	15	22	24	17	8	2	0
		7	-	10	-	2								0								0	0	1	4	13	24	30	21	7
7	.5	7	-	11	-	1								0							0	0	0	1	4	12	24	30	23	7
		6	-	10	-	3																				1	5	21	40	34
7		7	-	12	-	0																0	0	1	3	10	23	31	24	8
		6	-	11	-	2																			0	1	5	19	39	37
6	.5	6	-	12	-	1																		0	0	1	4	17	40	38
		5	-	11	-	3																						3	26	71
6		6	-	13	-	0																		0	0	1	4	17	40	39
		5	-	12	-	2																					0	3	23	74
5	.5	5	-	13	-	1																				0	0	3	22	75
5		5	-	14	-	0																					0	3	22	75
		4	-	13	-	2																						0	7	93
4	.5	4	-	14	-	1																						0	7	93
4		4	-	15	-	0																						0	6	94
3	.5	3	-	15	-	1																							1	99
3		3	-	16	-	0																							2	98
2	.5	2	-	16	-	1																								100
2		2	-	17	-	0																							0	100
0	-1.5																													100

Total:							2	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6