Cincinatti Reds Playoff Chances 2018

Beat Cubs 382.5-327, playoff odds up 18 to 51.4%

1-0-0 1.000

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Reds finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

18.5	-20						In		100												1,214	*
18		17	-	2	-	0	In		100	0											2,922	*
17	.5	16	-	2	-	1	In		100	0											1,791	*
17		16	-	3	-	0	In		99	1		0									14,668	*
16	.5	15	-	3	-	1	In		99	1		0									8,808	*
16		15	-	4	-	0	In		97	2	0	0									49,329
		14	-	3	-	2	In		98	2		0									2,470	*
15	.5	14	-	4	-	1	In		95	4	0	1									28,916	*
15		14	-	5	-	0	100.0	%	89	9	0	2	0								131,260
		13	-	4	-	2	In		89	9	0	2									7,868	*
14	.5	13	-	5	-	1	100.0		81	15	0	4	0								71,122	*
14		13	-	6	-	0	100.0		67	24	2	7	0								268,625
		12	-	5	-	2	99.9		69	23	1	7	0								17,797	*
13	.5	12	-	6	-	1	99.8		51	33	4	12	0								134,160
		11	-	5	-	3	99.9		54	32	4	10	0								2,605	*
13		12	-	7	-	0	98.8		32	39	9	19	1	0							438,640
		11	-	6	-	2	99.1		32	40	8	19	1	0							30,903	*
12	.5	11	-	7	-	1	96.4		16	38	15	26	4	0	0						201,875
		10	-	6	-	3	96.3		17	38	15	27	4	0							4,392	*
12		11	-	8	-	0	87.4		6	28	23	31	11	1	0	0					578,410
		10	-	7	-	2	88.2		6	28	23	30	11	1	0						42,925	*
11	.5	10	-	8	-	1	72.1		1	15	27	29	22	5	0	0	0				243,220
		9	-	7	-	3	72.7		1	15	28	28	22	5	0						5,382	*
11		10	-	9	-	0	47.5		0	6	24	18	30	17	4	0	0	0			620,114
		9	-	8	-	2	48.2		0	6	24	19	31	17	4	0	0				47,214	*
10	.5	9	-	9	-	1	24.5		0	1	16	7	27	31	15	3	0	0			238,076
		8	-	8	-	3	25.1			1	17	7	26	31	14	3	0	0			5,521	*
10		9	-	10	-	0	11.1		0	0	9	2	12	28	30	15	3	0	0		544,179
		8	-	9	-	2	10.9			0	9	2	12	29	30	15	3	0	0		41,125	*
9	.5	8	-	10	-	1	4.0			0	4	0	2	14	32	31	14	3	0	0	187,625
		7	-	9	-	3	4.0			0	4	0	2	15	32	31	14	2	0	0	4,240	*
9		8	-	11	-	0	1.6			0	2	0	0	4	16	32	30	14	3	0	390,395
		7	-	10	-	2	1.5				1	0	0	4	16	32	31	13	3	0	28,822	*
8	.5	7	-	11	-	1	0.4				0		0	0	4	18	36	30	10	1	119,518
		6	-	10	-	3	0.2				0			0	4	17	36	30	11	1	2,501	*
8		7	-	12	-	0	0.1				0		0	0	1	7	23	38	26	6	228,455
		6	-	11	-	2	0.1				0			0	1	6	23	38	26	6	16,051	*
7	.5	6	-	12	-	1	0.0				0				0	1	10	32	40	16	62,555	*
7		6	-	13	-	0	0.0				0				0	0	3	20	44	32	107,796
		5	-	12	-	2	Out									0	3	19	45	33	7,117	*
6	.5	5	-	13	-	1	Out									0	1	8	39	52	25,393	*
6		5	-	14	-	0	Out									0	0	3	28	68	40,452
		4	-	13	-	2	Out										0	3	27	69	2,434	*
5	.5	4	-	14	-	1	Out										0	1	17	82	7,843	*
5		4	-	15	-	0	Out											0	10	90	12,378	*
4	.5	3	-	15	-	1	Out												5	95	1,793	*
4		3	-	16	-	0	Out												2	98	2,734	*
3	.5	2	-	16	-	1	Out													100	298	*
3		2	-	17	-	0	Out												0	100	401	*
1	-2.5						Out													100	580	*

Total:							51.4	%	15	13	11	12	10	8	7	7	6	5	4	3	5,034,912

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24

19	-20						100
18	.5	17	-	1	-	1	100	0
18		17	-	2	-	0	100	0
17	.5	16	-	2	-	1	98	2
17		16	-	3	-	0	98	2	0
16	.5	15	-	3	-	1	93	7	0
16		15	-	4	-	0	92	7	0	0
		14	-	3	-	2	76	22	2		0
15	.5	14	-	4	-	1	75	22	2	0	0
15		14	-	5	-	0	75	22	3	0	0				0
		13	-	4	-	2	43	38	15	3	0	0
14	.5	13	-	5	-	1	42	39	15	3	0	0	0		0
14		13	-	6	-	0	42	39	15	3	0	0	0		0
		12	-	5	-	2	12	30	32	18	7	1	0	0	0
13	.5	12	-	6	-	1	11	29	32	19	7	1	0	0	0	0
		11	-	5	-	3	1	7	16	27	27	15	6	1	0
13		12	-	7	-	0	11	28	32	19	7	2	0	0	1	0	0
		11	-	6	-	2	1	6	16	26	27	16	6	1	1	0	0
12	.5	11	-	7	-	1	1	5	15	25	26	17	6	1	3	0	0	0
		10	-	6	-	3		0	1	5	15	27	32	16	2	1	0	0
12		11	-	8	-	0	1	4	13	23	24	16	6	1	11	1	0	0
		10	-	7	-	2	0	0	1	4	13	25	29	16	6	4	2	0	0	0
11	.5	10	-	8	-	1	0	0	1	3	10	21	25	13	13	10	4	1	0	0	0
		9	-	7	-	3				0	0	4	20	48	2	5	7	7	4	2	1	0	0
11		10	-	9	-	0	0	0	0	2	6	13	16	9	25	18	7	2	0	0	0
		9	-	8	-	2				0	0	2	13	33	3	9	14	13	8	4	1	0	0	0	0
10	.5	9	-	9	-	1				0	0	1	6	17	4	13	19	18	12	6	2	1	0	0	0
		8	-	8	-	3							1	24		0	2	6	12	17	16	12	6	3	1	0
10		9	-	10	-	0				0	0	0	3	8	4	14	22	22	15	8	3	1	0	0	0
		8	-	9	-	2						0	0	11	0	0	1	5	13	19	20	16	9	4	1	0	0	0	0
9	.5	8	-	10	-	1						0	0	4	0	0	1	5	12	20	22	18	11	5	1	0	0	0
		7	-	9	-	3								4				0	0	1	4	11	20	24	20	11	5	1	0	0
9		8	-	11	-	0							0	2	0	0	1	4	11	20	23	19	12	6	2	0	0	0
		7	-	10	-	2								1				0	0	1	3	10	19	24	21	13	6	2	0	0
8	.5	7	-	11	-	1								0				0	0	1	3	9	18	24	22	14	6	2	0	0
		6	-	10	-	3								0								0	1	4	12	24	28	20	9	1
8		7	-	12	-	0								0			0	0	0	0	2	8	17	24	23	16	7	2	0	0
		6	-	11	-	2								0							0	0	1	4	12	23	29	22	9	2
7	.5	6	-	12	-	1								0							0	0	1	3	10	22	29	23	10	2
7		6	-	13	-	0								0							0	0	0	3	9	21	29	24	11	2
		5	-	12	-	2																		0	0	3	12	28	38	20
6	.5	5	-	13	-	1																		0	0	2	11	27	38	21
6		5	-	14	-	0																		0	0	2	10	26	38	24
5	.5	4	-	14	-	1																				0	1	7	34	58
5		4	-	15	-	0																				0	1	7	32	61
4	.5	3	-	15	-	1																					0	1	14	86
4		3	-	16	-	0																						1	13	87
3	.5	2	-	16	-	1																							3	97
3		2	-	17	-	0																							2	98
1	-2.5																													100

Total:							8	8	7	7	6	6	5	5	6	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1