How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Blue Jackets 4 Blackhawks 7 -5.8
-0.6
Blue Jackets 3 Avalanche 5 -5.7
-0.6
Blue Jackets 3 Rangers 5 -5.5
-0.6
Blue Jackets 4 Capitals 5 -5.4
-0.6
Blue Jackets 1 Sabres 3 -5.3
-0.5
Blue Jackets 5 Flyers 6 -5.2
-0.5
Bruins 3 Blue Jackets 0 -5.1
-0.5
Ducks 7 Blue Jackets 4 -5.0
-0.5
Red Wings 4 Blue Jackets 3 -4.9
-0.5
Blue Jackets 3 Thrashers 5 -4.8
-0.5
Kings 6 Blue Jackets 3 -4.7
-0.5
Senators 2 Blue Jackets 5 +4.7
+0.5
Sabres 3 Blue Jackets 2 -4.7
-0.5
Wild 7 Blue Jackets 3 -4.7
-0.5
Flyers 4 Blue Jackets 3 -4.6
-0.5
Oilers 2 Blue Jackets 5 +4.5
+0.5
Rangers 6 Blue Jackets 0 -4.5
-0.5
Ducks 2 Blue Jackets 3 +4.5
+0.4
Panthers 2 Blue Jackets 1 -4.3
-0.5
Blue Jackets 5 Predators 2 +3.9
+0.4
Canucks 4 Blue Jackets 5 (ot)+3.9
+0.4
Hurricanes 3 Blue Jackets 4 +3.9
+0.4
Blue Jackets 5 Avalanche 3 +3.7
+0.4
Thrashers 1 Blue Jackets 2 +3.6
+0.4
Blue Jackets 6 Blues 4 +3.6
+0.4
Blue Jackets 3 Maple Leafs 0 +3.5
+0.4
Blue Jackets 5 Bruins 2 +3.5
+0.4
Blue Jackets 3 Panthers 1 +3.5
+0.4
Blue Jackets 3 Blackhawks 2 +3.3
+0.4
Blue Jackets 6 Hurricanes 3 +3.2
+0.4
Blue Jackets 5 Islanders 4 (so)+3.2
+0.4
Blue Jackets 3 Ducks 2 (ot)+2.6
+0.3
Avalanche 3 Blue Jackets 4 (so)*+1.9
+0.2
Bruins 3 Predators 4 (so)*-1.6
Avalanche 3 Bruins 2 (so)*+1.4
Blue Jackets 3 Lightning 4 (ot)*-1.4
*-0.2
Blue Jackets 1 Canucks 2 (ot)*-1.3
*-0.1
Blackhawks 2 Rangers 3 +0.8
Sharks 1 Thrashers 2 +0.8
Blue Jackets 3 Devils 4 (ot)*-0.8
-0.1
Ducks 4 Rangers 3 (ot)*-0.7
Sharks 2 Lightning 1 (so)*+0.7
Rangers 4 Maple Leafs 0 *-0.6
Avalanche 2 Blues 1 *+0.5
Stars 4 Flyers 3 (ot)*-0.5
Wild 4 Coyotes 5 *+0.5
Oilers 4 Thrashers 3 *-0.4
Capitals 2 Blue Jackets 1 (ot)*-0.4
*-0.0
Canucks 4 Sabres 1 *-0.4
Flyers 4 Wild 5 (ot)*-0.4
Kings 4 Canadiens 3 *-0.3
Sharks 6 Flames 3 *+0.3
Oilers 3 Stars 1 *+0.3
Thrashers 4 Lightning 3 *+0.2
Avalanche 1 Rangers 2 (so)*+0.1
Maple Leafs 4 Blue Jackets 3 (so)*+0.1
+0.0
Maple Leafs 5 Blues 6 (so)*-0.2
Canucks 2 Devils 3 (so)-0.2
Canucks 5 Blues 4 (so)*-0.1
Devils 1 Blackhawks 2 -0.1
Blackhawks 2 Hurricanes 4 +0.1
Blackhawks 3 Maple Leafs 4 +0.1
Penguins 3 Blues 4 *-0.1
Blues 1 Oilers 2 +0.1
Stars 4 Blues 6 -0.1
Blues 0 Sharks 2 +0.0
Flyers 5 Bruins 6 (so)-0.0
Blackhawks 1 Penguins 0 -0.0
Flyers 4 Red Wings 3 (ot)*-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Red Wings vs Blue Jackets-5.9-1.1*-1.3+4.4+4.0+6.9
-0.3*-0.0*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.3
Blue Jackets vs Red Wings+5.7+2.6+4.0-2.3-2.7-6.6
+0.3+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.3
Blue Jackets vs Red Wings+5.0+4.0+3.6-2.3-2.5-6.2
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.1-0.1-0.3
Blue Jackets vs Stars+4.1+4.0+5.5*-0.6*-0.5-4.9
+0.2+0.3+0.3*-0.0*-0.0-0.3
Sharks vs Blue Jackets-4.3*-0.5*+0.7+4.1+4.1+5.7
-0.3+0.0*+0.1+0.2+0.3+0.3
Blackhawks vs Blue Jackets-5.3*-0.8*+0.1+3.7+3.2+4.7
-0.3*-0.0-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.3
Blue Jackets vs Sharks+5.1+3.8+4.2*-0.6-1.5-4.9
+0.3+0.2+0.2*-0.0*-0.0-0.3
Blue Jackets vs Ducks+3.9+4.0+5.6*-0.4*-0.0-4.3
+0.2+0.3+0.3*-0.0*+0.0-0.3
Kings vs Blue Jackets-3.4*+0.4*-0.9+6.3+4.4+4.1
-0.2*+0.0*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Blue Jackets vs Stars+4.4+4.8+2.7*-1.6*-0.7-4.8
+0.3+0.3+0.2*-0.1*-0.0-0.3
Flames vs Blue Jackets-4.9*-0.9*-1.4+4.6+3.5+3.9
-0.3*-0.1*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.3
Sharks vs Blue Jackets-4.0*-0.1*-0.6+3.4+4.2+5.4
-0.2*+0.0*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Islanders vs Blue Jackets-5.3-1.3*-1.3+4.1+3.2+2.8
-0.3*-0.1*-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Blues vs Blue Jackets-4.1*-0.5*-0.8+4.6+4.1+5.2
-0.3-0.0*-0.0+0.3+0.2+0.3
Blackhawks vs Blue Jackets-5.0*-1.0*-0.8+3.6+4.3+4.3
-0.3*-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.3+0.3
Blue Jackets vs Sharks+4.5+3.8+3.6*-0.5*-0.7-4.7
+0.3+0.2+0.2-0.0*-0.0-0.3
Blue Jackets vs Blues+4.5+3.6+3.2*-1.7*-0.9-4.7
+0.3+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.3
Blue Jackets vs Kings+4.3+3.8+4.8*-0.3*-0.4-4.3
+0.3+0.2+0.3*-0.0*-0.0-0.3
Blue Jackets vs Wild+4.4+3.9+4.8*-1.0*+0.0-4.2
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.0*+0.0-0.3
Blues vs Blue Jackets-4.0*-0.5*-1.5+4.2+5.0+4.8
-0.3-0.0*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Predators vs Blue Jackets-5.1*-1.0*-1.8+3.7+3.9+2.9
-0.3*-0.1*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Blue Jackets vs Oilers+4.0+4.2+4.2*+0.2*-0.3-4.8
+0.2+0.3+0.3*-0.0*-0.0-0.3
Stars vs Blue Jackets-4.2*+0.7*-0.7+4.6+4.5+4.7
-0.3*+0.0*-0.0+0.3+0.2+0.3
Coyotes vs Blue Jackets-4.8*+0.3*-0.6+4.1+3.4+3.6
-0.3*-0.0*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Blue Jackets vs Oilers+4.2+4.0+4.1*+0.3*-1.0-4.6
+0.3+0.2+0.2*-0.0*-0.0-0.3
Oilers vs Blue Jackets-4.0*-0.5*+0.8+4.0+4.9+4.7
-0.2*-0.0*+0.1+0.2+0.3+0.3
Blue Jackets vs Penguins+3.5+4.2+3.4*-0.9*-0.8-4.6
+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.1*-0.0-0.3
Blue Jackets vs Flames+3.3+2.7+3.1-2.4-1.5-5.5
+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.4
Wild vs Blue Jackets-3.7*+0.1*+0.4+4.4+4.6+5.0
-0.2+0.0*+0.0+0.2+0.3+0.3
Blue Jackets vs Wild+4.4+4.2+4.4*+0.1*-0.2-4.4
+0.3+0.2+0.2*+0.0*-0.0-0.3
Lightning vs Blue Jackets-4.5*-0.5*-0.3+3.6+3.6+4.2
-0.3*+0.0*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.3
Flames vs Blue Jackets-4.7*-1.0*-0.8+2.4+3.1+4.1
-0.3*-0.1*-0.1+0.2+0.3+0.3
Blue Jackets vs Predators+2.2+2.5+3.4-2.3*-1.1-5.3
+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.2-0.1-0.3
Canadiens vs Blue Jackets-3.3+2.1*+0.3+4.7+5.4+5.1
-0.2+0.1*+0.0+0.4+0.3+0.3
Blue Jackets vs Coyotes+3.0+3.1+3.4-2.0-1.5-5.2
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Stars vs Blue Jackets-3.8*-0.3*-0.2+3.5+4.2+4.7
-0.2*+0.0-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Canucks vs Blue Jackets-4.9*+0.1*-0.4+3.3+3.7+3.5
-0.3-0.0*-0.1+0.3+0.2+0.3
Penguins vs Blue Jackets-4.0*-0.7*-1.2+4.1+4.3+4.5
-0.2*-0.0*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Blue Jackets vs Flames+3.0+2.6+3.2*-1.7-1.8-5.2
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.1-0.1-0.4
Blue Jackets vs Senators+3.4+3.9+2.8*-0.8*-1.0-4.5
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.1-0.1-0.3
Coyotes vs Blue Jackets-4.7*-0.3*-1.5+3.3+3.7+3.7
-0.3*-0.1*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Blue Jackets vs Coyotes+3.0+2.7+3.0*-1.2-1.3-5.2
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.1-0.1-0.4
Blue Jackets vs Kings+3.9+4.0+3.7*+0.1*-0.1-4.1
+0.2+0.3+0.3+0.0*-0.0-0.3
Avalanche vs Blue Jackets-5.0*-1.1*-1.5+2.8+2.8+3.0
-0.3*-0.1*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Predators vs Blue Jackets-4.7-1.8*-0.7+3.2+3.2+2.9
-0.3-0.1*-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Devils vs Blue Jackets-5.1*-1.3*-1.7+2.4+2.7+2.3
-0.3-0.1*-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Blue Jackets vs Canucks+2.8+2.5+2.4*-1.9-1.3-4.9
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.2-0.1-0.4

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Blue Jackets finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
135470-0In1008
117367-4In1002*
115347-6In80205*
114348-5In1156339*
113349-4In2668519*
112328-7In314753636*
1113310-4In14647112256*
110319-7In105891642125*
1093110-6In4634101541168*
1083010-7In4602121571259*
1073011-6In15111019153419*
1062911-799.1%13717202771577*
1052912-699.2032062027131834*
1042812-798.1025319312021,191*
1032813-695.2021211323051,527*
1022713-790.5015083037902,031*
1012613-885.1100425451402,619*
1002614-774.880218472413,146*
992514-864.3501134533203,742*
982515-754.4300843415004,407*
972415-842.41053649905,072*
962416-730.610327541415,563*
952316-821.1001205522206,048*
942317-714.000135329406,334*
932217-88.600847368106,358*
922218-74.1004384314206,323*
912118-82.4002304420306,156*
902119-71.21224328605,937*
892019-80.5011439341215,394*
882020-70.30831391934,962*
871920-80.004244125504,222*
861921-7Out2173934803,608*
851821-8Out11034401412,992*
841822-7Out0627432312,478*
831722-8Out0319463022,038*
821723-7Out113414041,584*
811623-8Out017374791,185*
801624-7Out52954120797*
791625-6Out21959200615*
781525-7Out01657270421*
771425-8Out0758331270*
761426-7Out552421176*
751326-8Out3504798*
741327-7Out2469772*
731227-8Out30571354*
721228-7Out21631724*
711229-6Out1010701010*
701129-7Out1479714*
691130-6Out50504*
68929-9Out50502*
66931-7Out1001
41047-0Out1008
Total:23.4%0030014142721149510100,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Lottery seed
Blue Jackets 4 Blackhawks 7 +1.2
Blue Jackets 3 Avalanche 5 +1.2
Blue Jackets 3 Rangers 5 +1.2
Blue Jackets 4 Capitals 5 +1.1
Blue Jackets 5 Flyers 6 +1.1
Blue Jackets 1 Sabres 3 +1.1
Red Wings 4 Blue Jackets 3 +1.1
Blue Jackets 3 Thrashers 5 +1.1
Bruins 3 Blue Jackets 0 +1.1
Sabres 3 Blue Jackets 2 +1.0
Flyers 4 Blue Jackets 3 +1.0
Ducks 7 Blue Jackets 4 +1.0
Panthers 2 Blue Jackets 1 +1.0
Kings 6 Blue Jackets 3 +1.0
Wild 7 Blue Jackets 3 +1.0
Rangers 6 Blue Jackets 0 +1.0
Senators 2 Blue Jackets 5 -1.0
Oilers 2 Blue Jackets 5 -0.9
Ducks 2 Blue Jackets 3 -0.9
Hurricanes 3 Blue Jackets 4 -0.8
Blue Jackets 5 Predators 2 -0.8
Blue Jackets 5 Islanders 4 (so)-0.8
Thrashers 1 Blue Jackets 2 -0.8
Canucks 4 Blue Jackets 5 (ot)-0.8
Blue Jackets 3 Maple Leafs 0 -0.8
Blue Jackets 3 Blackhawks 2 -0.8
Blue Jackets 6 Blues 4 -0.8
Blue Jackets 5 Avalanche 3 -0.7
Blue Jackets 6 Hurricanes 3 -0.7
Blue Jackets 3 Panthers 1 -0.7
Blue Jackets 5 Bruins 2 -0.7
Blue Jackets 3 Ducks 2 (ot)-0.6
Avalanche 3 Blue Jackets 4 (so)-0.5
Kings 3 Ducks 2 (so)+0.4
Blue Jackets 3 Lightning 4 (ot)+0.3
Canucks 2 Devils 3 (so)+0.3
Maple Leafs 5 Blues 6 (so)*+0.3
Bruins 3 Predators 4 (so)*+0.3
Blue Jackets 3 Devils 4 (ot)*+0.2
Oilers 5 Red Wings 4 (so)*+0.2
Stars 5 Blackhawks 6 (so)*-0.2
Capitals 2 Wild 3 (so)+0.2
Red Wings 6 Penguins 5 (so)-0.2
Capitals 5 Panthers 4 (so)*-0.2
Blue Jackets 1 Canucks 2 (ot)*+0.2
Flames 4 Hurricanes 5 (ot)*+0.2
Red Wings 3 Sharks 6 -0.2
Predators 4 Red Wings 3 (so)*+0.2
Canucks 5 Blues 4 (so)*+0.2
Avalanche 2 Blues 1 -0.1
Blues 1 Oilers 2 -0.1
Devils 1 Blackhawks 2 +0.1
Penguins 3 Blues 4 +0.1
Capitals 4 Coyotes 5 (ot)*+0.1
Predators 0 Canadiens 9 -0.1
Predators 2 Stars 4 *-0.1
Panthers 4 Oilers 2 *-0.1
Capitals 2 Blue Jackets 1 (ot)*+0.1
Predators 3 Kings 4 -0.0
Maple Leafs 4 Blue Jackets 3 (so)*-0.0
Flyers 2 Ducks 1 (ot)*+0.0
Flames 2 Red Wings 3 +0.0
Stars 5 Coyotes 3 *+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Red Wings vs Blue Jackets+0.6*+0.1*+0.1-0.4-0.5-0.6
Blues vs Blue Jackets+0.5+0.1+0.0-0.5-0.4-0.6
Blue Jackets vs Red Wings-0.5-0.3-0.4+0.2+0.2+0.6
Blue Jackets vs Blues-0.5-0.4-0.4+0.2+0.1+0.6
Lightning vs Blue Jackets+0.6*+0.0*+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.5
Coyotes vs Blue Jackets+0.6*+0.0*+0.1-0.5-0.5-0.5
Blackhawks vs Blue Jackets+0.6*+0.1*+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.5
Blues vs Blue Jackets+0.5+0.1*+0.1-0.5-0.5-0.6
Blue Jackets vs Coyotes-0.4-0.4-0.4*+0.1+0.2+0.7
Blue Jackets vs Stars-0.5-0.5-0.3*+0.1*+0.0+0.5
Blue Jackets vs Red Wings-0.4-0.4-0.4+0.2+0.1+0.6
Blue Jackets vs Flames-0.4-0.3-0.3*+0.2+0.1+0.7
Flames vs Blue Jackets+0.6*+0.1*+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.5
Flames vs Blue Jackets+0.6+0.1*+0.1-0.4-0.5-0.5
Blackhawks vs Blue Jackets+0.6*+0.1*+0.1-0.4-0.5-0.5
Blue Jackets vs Stars-0.5-0.4-0.5*+0.0*+0.0+0.5
Sharks vs Blue Jackets+0.5*-0.0*-0.1-0.5-0.5-0.6
Blue Jackets vs Kings-0.5-0.4-0.5*-0.0*+0.0+0.5
Kings vs Blue Jackets+0.4*-0.0*+0.0-0.6-0.5-0.5
Canucks vs Blue Jackets+0.6+0.1*+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.4
Canadiens vs Blue Jackets+0.4-0.2*-0.1-0.6-0.6-0.6
Predators vs Blue Jackets+0.6*+0.1*+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.3
Blue Jackets vs Coyotes-0.4-0.3-0.3*+0.1+0.2+0.6
Blue Jackets vs Sharks-0.5-0.5-0.4*+0.1*+0.1+0.5
Stars vs Blue Jackets+0.5-0.1*+0.0-0.5-0.5-0.5
Blue Jackets vs Wild-0.5-0.5-0.5*+0.1*-0.0+0.5
Blue Jackets vs Senators-0.4-0.5-0.4*+0.1+0.1+0.6
Predators vs Blue Jackets+0.6+0.2*+0.2-0.3-0.4-0.4
Blue Jackets vs Canucks-0.4-0.3-0.3*+0.2+0.2+0.6
Blue Jackets vs Sharks-0.5-0.4-0.5*+0.0*+0.0+0.5
Blue Jackets vs Flames-0.4-0.3-0.4*+0.2*+0.1+0.6
Blue Jackets vs Ducks-0.4-0.5-0.5*+0.0*-0.0+0.5
Blue Jackets vs Oilers-0.5-0.5-0.5*+0.1*+0.1+0.5
Blue Jackets vs Wild-0.5-0.4-0.4-0.1*+0.0+0.5
Coyotes vs Blue Jackets+0.5*+0.1*+0.0-0.4-0.4-0.4
Oilers vs Blue Jackets+0.4*+0.0*-0.1-0.4-0.5-0.5
Blue Jackets vs Oilers-0.5-0.4-0.4*-0.0*+0.1+0.5
Wild vs Blue Jackets+0.4*-0.0*-0.0-0.4-0.6-0.5

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
135470-0100
117367-4100
115347-68020
114348-511114433
113349-42653165
112328-7314611436
1113310-4145014257422
110319-71031272712442
1093110-64441813551541
1083010-7432280148123701
1073011-6121311371451403
1062911-71122412513724271
1052912-607250169112341201
1042812-70421036122381912
1032813-602190229181427350
1022713-70114017141630790
1012613-801000471830151410
1002614-7070241427212140
992514-80500111219272681
982515-70300081132291420
972415-810056302823610
962416-7100322524311220
952316-8001119173621500
942317-7000131134301010
932217-80008630361630
922218-700043223825710
912118-800211535311220
902119-711829362040
892019-8010419372810200
882020-70021231341740
871920-80016253723710
861921-70031634321220
851821-81927362150
841822-7042036281010
831722-8021232341720
821723-717223727710
811623-803163433122
801624-702828382031
791625-604213530100
781525-72143336132
771425-8162544205
761426-771937289
751326-82153434141
741327-742451191
731227-842830336
721228-72529424
711229-610104040
701028-914215014
691130-67525
68929-95050
66931-7100
41047-0100
Total:0000120000012351091315131075210000