How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Flames 1 Blackhawks 2 -6.1
-0.6
Flames 3 Canucks 4 -6.0
-0.6
Flames 2 Red Wings 3 -5.9
-0.6
Flames 0 Predators 4 -5.9
-0.6
Flames 2 Oilers 4 -5.9
-0.6
Flames 2 Ducks 5 -5.7
-0.6
Flames 0 Rangers 5 -5.7
-0.6
Flames 2 Blues 5 -5.6
-0.6
Flames 3 Sabres 5 -5.5
-0.6
Flames 2 Capitals 3 -5.2
-0.5
Sharks 6 Flames 3 -5.2
-0.5
Ducks 3 Flames 0 -5.1
-0.5
Stars 1 Flames 2 +5.1
+0.5
Penguins 5 Flames 2 -5.0
-0.5
Sharks 4 Flames 3 -4.9
-0.5
Flyers 2 Flames 0 -4.8
-0.5
Coyotes 3 Flames 4 +4.8
+0.5
Senators 6 Flames 4 -4.8
-0.5
Coyotes 3 Flames 1 -4.7
-0.5
Wild 4 Flames 2 -4.7
-0.5
Panthers 2 Flames 1 -4.5
-0.5
Red Wings 1 Flames 2 +4.5
+0.5
Kings 1 Flames 2 +4.3
+0.4
Predators 1 Flames 3 +4.3
+0.4
Devils 2 Flames 4 +4.3
+0.4
Stars 2 Flames 3 (so)+4.2
+0.5
Flames 3 Blackhawks 1 +4.2
+0.4
Bruins 1 Flames 5 +4.2
+0.4
Thrashers 3 Flames 4 (ot)+4.1
+0.4
Lightning 3 Flames 4 (so)+3.9
+0.4
Flames 4 Oilers 3 +3.7
+0.4
Flames 4 Canucks 3 +3.6
+0.4
Flames 2 Penguins 1 (ot)+3.6
+0.3
Flames 2 Islanders 1 +3.4
+0.4
Flames 6 Flyers 4 +3.3
+0.4
Flames 3 Maple Leafs 1 +3.2
+0.3
Flames 3 Senators 2 +3.1
+0.3
Rangers 3 Flames 2 (so)-2.1
-0.2
Flames 2 Ducks 3 (so)*-1.6
*-0.1
Flames 4 Hurricanes 5 (ot)-1.5
*-0.1
Kings 3 Capitals 2 -0.9
Bruins 3 Blue Jackets 0 +0.8
Sabres 7 Predators 4 +0.8
Bruins 5 Canucks 4 +0.7
Oilers 3 Flames 2 (so)*-0.7
*-0.1
Panthers 3 Stars 2 *+0.6
Blues 2 Bruins 3 (so)*+0.5
Blues 6 Predators 3 *-0.5
Stars 7 Panthers 3 *-0.5
Hurricanes 4 Oilers 5 (so)*-0.4
*-0.1
Avalanche 4 Senators 7 *+0.4
Devils 2 Panthers 4 *-0.4
Oilers 4 Thrashers 3 *-0.3
Avalanche 3 Coyotes 5 *+0.3
Canucks 5 Maple Leafs 3 *-0.3
Predators 0 Canadiens 9 *+0.2
Sharks 4 Kings 1 *+0.2
Blue Jackets 3 Panthers 1 *-0.2
Oilers 6 Predators 2 *+0.2
Maple Leafs 4 Canucks 3 (ot)*-0.2
Thrashers 6 Kings 4 *+0.1
Red Wings 3 Predators 1 *+0.0
Canucks 1 Canadiens 6 +0.1
Senators 1 Wild 4 -0.1
Avalanche 3 Canadiens 4 +0.1
Avalanche 4 Islanders 0 *-0.0
Canadiens 1 Wild 4 *-0.0
Oilers 5 Panthers 3 -0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Red Wings vs Flames-2.3-0.9*-0.8+2.0+2.3+3.0
-0.2-0.0*-0.0+0.3+0.2+0.3
Flames vs Red Wings+2.4+1.9*+0.8-1.0-0.9-2.4
+0.2+0.2+0.1*-0.0-0.0-0.3
Blue Jackets vs Flames-1.9-0.9*-0.7+2.1+2.0+2.3
-0.3-0.0*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.3
Wild vs Flames-1.5*+0.5*-0.2+1.9+2.7+1.9
-0.2*+0.0*+0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Flames vs Blue Jackets+1.9+1.0+1.2*-0.9*-0.6-2.2
+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.3
Blackhawks vs Flames-2.0*-0.4*-0.5+1.7+1.6+2.1
-0.3*-0.0*-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.3
Blue Jackets vs Flames-1.9*-0.5*-0.1+1.3+2.2+2.1
-0.3*-0.0*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.3
Flames vs Sharks+2.1+1.7+1.6*-0.0*-0.1-1.9
+0.2+0.2+0.2*+0.0*-0.0-0.2
Sabres vs Flames-1.4*-0.2*-0.2+1.4+2.3+2.6
-0.2*+0.0*+0.0+0.2+0.3+0.3
Flames vs Sharks+2.2+1.2*+0.9*-0.6*-0.4-1.7
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.0*-0.0-0.2
Flames vs Kings+1.9+1.6+2.2*-0.8*+0.3-1.7
+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.0*+0.0-0.2
Flames vs Thrashers+1.6+1.5+2.0*-0.3*+0.0-1.8
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.0*+0.0-0.2
Flames vs Coyotes+1.2+1.0+1.9*-0.4*-0.5-1.9
+0.2+0.1+0.2*-0.1-0.1-0.3
Flames vs Blue Jackets+1.7+1.4*+1.0*-0.7-0.8-2.1
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.1-0.1-0.3
Blackhawks vs Flames-1.9*-0.3*-0.1+1.6+1.6+1.9
-0.3-0.0*-0.0+0.3+0.2+0.3
Canadiens vs Flames-1.3*+0.5*+0.7+2.3+2.2+2.5
-0.2*+0.1+0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Flames vs Stars+1.8+1.9+1.9*-0.2*-0.2-1.8
+0.2+0.2+0.3*+0.0*-0.0-0.2
Blues vs Flames-1.6*+0.1*-0.2+2.1+1.9+2.1
-0.2*+0.0*+0.0+0.2+0.3+0.3
Oilers vs Flames-1.5*-0.0*-0.2+2.0+1.7+2.2
-0.2*+0.0*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Flames vs Wild+2.0+2.0+1.7*-0.8*+0.0-1.6
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.0*+0.0-0.2
Blues vs Flames-1.4*-0.3*-0.5+2.2+1.5+2.2
-0.2*+0.0*-0.0+0.3+0.2+0.3
Flames vs Blues+1.9+1.1+1.6*-0.3*-0.3-1.7
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.0*-0.0-0.2
Flames vs Stars+1.8+1.9+1.9*-0.2*-0.3-1.7
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.0*-0.0-0.2
Canucks vs Flames-1.9*-0.2*-0.7+1.5+1.3+1.8
-0.3*-0.0*-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.3
Islanders vs Flames-1.9-1.0*-0.0+1.7+1.1+1.3
-0.3-0.1*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Flames vs Wild+2.1+1.7*+0.9*+0.1*-0.4-1.5
+0.2+0.2+0.2*+0.0*+0.0-0.2
Ducks vs Flames-1.4*+0.4*-0.2+1.5+2.1+2.0
-0.2+0.1+0.0+0.2+0.2+0.3
Canucks vs Flames-1.7*-0.3*+0.2+1.8+1.3+1.5
-0.3*-0.0*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.3
Flames vs Kings+1.9+1.2+1.4*-0.6*+0.2-1.6
+0.2+0.2+0.2+0.0+0.0-0.2
Capitals vs Flames-1.5*-0.2*-0.3+1.7+2.0+1.7
-0.2*-0.0+0.0+0.2+0.3+0.2
Hurricanes vs Flames-1.5*-0.1*-0.0+1.6+2.0+1.8
-0.2*+0.0*+0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Flames vs Canadiens+2.1+1.9*+1.4*+0.4*+0.4-1.3
+0.3+0.3+0.3*+0.1*+0.1-0.2
Flames vs Coyotes+1.4+0.8*+0.8*-0.4*-0.5-1.9
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.1*-0.1-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Flames finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
130450-0In1008
112-113In1002*
111326-7In1001
110327-6In331733176*
109328-5In224422119*
108307-8In10207010*
107308-797.2%331131428336*
106309-6In21235411049*
1053010-5In1418453274*
1042910-699.2242146271123*
1032810-795.00121540365220*
1022811-689.401113543101357*
1012711-784.30042456151504*
1002712-671.90118522620727*
992612-760.30111493461,087*
982512-849.70743428001,461*
972513-738.2435481312,000*
962413-827.002255120202,582*
952414-717.41174830403,078*
942314-810.40104436903,887*
932315-75.90636431414,392*
922215-83.03274522205,124*
912216-71.31194628505,658*
902116-80.711340361016,098*
892117-70.208334216106,506*
882017-80.104254424306,568*
872018-7Out2174431606,468*
861918-8Out11238381106,452*
851919-7Out0732431716,012*
841819-8Out0424472515,470*
831820-7Out0116463435,000*
821720-8Out110424244,319*
811721-7Out073451803,637*
801621-8Out0328581102,978*
791622-7Out219611802,373*
781522-8Out114562811,967*
771523-7Out010553321,487*
761423-8Out7503931,031*
751424-7Out343505728*
741425-6Out236548498*
731325-7Out0305811387*
721225-8Out246314225*
711226-7Out146323153*
701227-6Out12593094*
691127-7Out6633168*
681128-6Out10513941*
671028-7Out445618*
661029-6Out307010*
651131-3Out50504*
63-64Out1004*
62831-6Out1001
40045-0Out1008
Total:6.1%00000015121922211640100,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Lottery seed
Flames 3 Canucks 4 +1.3
Flames 2 Oilers 4 +1.3
Flames 2 Red Wings 3 +1.2
Flames 0 Predators 4 +1.2
Flames 1 Blackhawks 2 +1.2
Flames 3 Sabres 5 +1.2
Flames 0 Rangers 5 +1.2
Flames 2 Ducks 5 +1.2
Flames 2 Blues 5 +1.2
Flames 2 Capitals 3 +1.1
Flyers 2 Flames 0 +1.1
Ducks 3 Flames 0 +1.0
Sharks 4 Flames 3 +1.0
Sharks 6 Flames 3 +1.0
Penguins 5 Flames 2 +1.0
Stars 1 Flames 2 -1.0
Wild 4 Flames 2 +1.0
Senators 6 Flames 4 +1.0
Coyotes 3 Flames 1 +1.0
Panthers 2 Flames 1 +1.0
Coyotes 3 Flames 4 -1.0
Stars 2 Flames 3 (so)-0.9
Devils 2 Flames 4 -0.9
Red Wings 1 Flames 2 -0.9
Bruins 1 Flames 5 -0.9
Predators 1 Flames 3 -0.9
Kings 1 Flames 2 -0.9
Thrashers 3 Flames 4 (ot)-0.9
Flames 3 Blackhawks 1 -0.8
Flames 4 Canucks 3 -0.8
Flames 4 Oilers 3 -0.8
Lightning 3 Flames 4 (so)-0.8
Flames 2 Islanders 1 -0.8
Flames 6 Flyers 4 -0.7
Flames 2 Penguins 1 (ot)-0.7
Flames 3 Maple Leafs 1 -0.7
Flames 3 Senators 2 -0.7
Rangers 3 Flames 2 (so)+0.4
Predators 4 Red Wings 3 (so)+0.3
Red Wings 3 Oilers 4 (so)+0.3
Flames 4 Hurricanes 5 (ot)*+0.3
Flames 2 Ducks 3 (so)*+0.3
Stars 1 Capitals 2 (so)*+0.2
Blue Jackets 5 Islanders 4 (so)*+0.2
Canucks 2 Devils 3 (so)*+0.2
Avalanche 1 Rangers 2 (so)*-0.2
Capitals 2 Stars 1 (so)*-0.2
Avalanche 3 Blue Jackets 4 (so)*-0.2
Oilers 3 Flames 2 (so)*+0.2
Flyers 5 Bruins 6 (so)-0.2
Bruins 3 Blue Jackets 0 -0.2
Capitals 4 Coyotes 5 (ot)*-0.2
Wild 3 Blues 2 (ot)+0.2
Predators 5 Stars 6 -0.1
Senators 1 Wild 4 +0.1
Avalanche 3 Coyotes 5 -0.1
Oilers 5 Red Wings 4 (so)*+0.1
Sharks 3 Hurricanes 4 *-0.1
Devils 1 Wild 2 +0.1
Devils 2 Coyotes 0 *-0.0
Canadiens 1 Wild 4 +0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Canucks vs Flames+0.5*+0.0*+0.1-0.4-0.3-0.4
Blackhawks vs Flames+0.5*+0.0+0.0-0.4-0.4-0.4
Blackhawks vs Flames+0.4*+0.1*+0.1-0.4-0.3-0.5
Flames vs Coyotes-0.4-0.2-0.3*+0.1+0.1+0.5
Flames vs Lightning-0.4-0.3-0.3+0.1*+0.1+0.5
Flames vs Coyotes-0.4-0.3-0.3+0.1+0.1+0.5
Blue Jackets vs Flames+0.4+0.0+0.1-0.3-0.4-0.5
Red Wings vs Flames+0.4+0.0*+0.0-0.4-0.4-0.5
Canucks vs Flames+0.5*+0.0*+0.1-0.4-0.3-0.4
Flames vs Blue Jackets-0.4-0.3-0.3*+0.2*+0.1+0.5
Blue Jackets vs Flames+0.4*+0.0-0.0-0.4-0.4-0.4
Flames vs Blue Jackets-0.4-0.3-0.3*+0.1*+0.1+0.5
Flames vs Bruins-0.3-0.3-0.3*+0.1+0.1+0.5
Maple Leafs vs Flames+0.5*+0.1+0.1-0.3-0.4-0.3
Flames vs Stars-0.4-0.4-0.4*-0.0+0.0+0.4
Flames vs Panthers-0.3-0.3-0.2+0.2+0.1+0.5
Flames vs Red Wings-0.4-0.3*-0.2+0.1+0.1+0.4
Flames vs Predators-0.3-0.2-0.3*+0.1+0.1+0.5
Predators vs Flames+0.5+0.1*+0.1-0.3-0.3-0.3
Blues vs Flames+0.4*-0.0*-0.0-0.4-0.4-0.5
Flames vs Sharks-0.4-0.3-0.3*+0.0*+0.0+0.4
Flames vs Sharks-0.4-0.4-0.3*-0.0*+0.0+0.4
Sabres vs Flames+0.3-0.0*+0.0-0.4-0.5-0.5
Flames vs Kings-0.4-0.4-0.4*+0.1*-0.1+0.4
Flames vs Avalanche-0.3-0.2-0.2*+0.1*+0.1+0.5
Ducks vs Flames+0.3*-0.1-0.0-0.4-0.4-0.5
Flames vs Canadiens-0.5-0.5-0.4*-0.1-0.1+0.3
Blues vs Flames+0.3*-0.0*+0.0-0.5-0.4-0.4
Canadiens vs Flames+0.3-0.1-0.1-0.4-0.4-0.5
Capitals vs Flames+0.4*+0.0*-0.0-0.4-0.4-0.4
Flames vs Devils-0.2-0.2-0.2*+0.2+0.1+0.5
Flames vs Kings-0.4-0.3-0.4-0.0*-0.1+0.4
Flames vs Stars-0.4-0.4-0.4+0.0*+0.0+0.4
Hurricanes vs Flames+0.4*+0.0-0.0-0.4-0.4-0.4
Wild vs Flames+0.3-0.1*-0.0-0.4-0.5-0.4
Flames vs Wild-0.4-0.4-0.3*+0.0*-0.0+0.4
Flames vs Thrashers-0.4-0.3-0.4+0.1*-0.0+0.4
Flames vs Avalanche-0.3-0.2-0.2*+0.2+0.2+0.5
Avalanche vs Flames+0.5*+0.1*+0.1*-0.3-0.3-0.3
Flames vs Blues-0.4-0.3-0.4*+0.1*+0.0+0.4

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
130450-05050
112-113100
111326-7100
110327-633173317
109328-52211332211
108307-81010105020
107308-733112564283
106309-6221020144110
1053010-51471138732
1042910-62461533122521
1032810-701221324163255
1022811-6011101520348101
1012711-700036183818132
1002712-60131627252440
992612-7010101930261310
982512-800711322818410
972513-74629282581
962413-80222322321630
952414-7111613372571
942314-80010932331320
932315-7006526372150
922215-83218363110100
912216-7111031371730
902116-8105233825710
892117-70031534331220
882017-80019283721500
872018-704193828910
861918-8021232351630
851919-7017253724610
841819-8031636311220
831820-70110303618400
821720-8005233826710
811721-7021435331320
801621-801827392040
791622-70419382981
781522-82113434153
771523-7017264021400
761423-80421372981
751424-72103536152
741425-6172739223
731325-742137325
721225-8214363910
711226-7173343143
701227-6122349231
691127-72156186
681128-62754297
671028-76335011
661029-620403010
651131-35050
64930-65050
631032-35050
62831-6100
40045-0100
Total:0000000000001143711141615128521000