How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Flyers 1 Hurricanes 2 -5.9
-0.6
Flyers 2 Canadiens 4 -5.8
-0.6
Flyers 0 Oilers 5 -5.5
-0.5
Thrashers 2 Flyers 1 -5.3
-0.6
Flyers 2 Stars 5 -5.2
-0.5
Rangers 5 Flyers 3 -5.1
-0.5
Rangers 2 Flyers 3 +5.0
+0.5
Thrashers 5 Flyers 3 -5.0
-0.5
Canadiens 5 Flyers 1 -5.0
-0.5
Flames 6 Flyers 4 -4.9
-0.5
Red Wings 5 Flyers 1 -4.8
-0.5
Devils 0 Flyers 1 +4.8
+0.5
Ducks 3 Flyers 1 -4.6
-0.5
Sharks 5 Flyers 1 -4.6
-0.5
Kings 3 Flyers 2 -4.4
-0.5
Lightning 0 Flyers 4 +4.3
+0.5
Bruins 3 Flyers 8 +4.2
+0.4
Blackhawks 6 Flyers 4 -4.2
-0.4
Lightning 3 Flyers 4 +4.2
+0.4
Flyers 4 Rangers 2 +4.1
+0.4
Flyers 6 Hurricanes 3 +4.0
+0.4
Flyers 4 Thrashers 3 +3.9
+0.4
Flyers 5 Penguins 3 +3.8
+0.4
Canucks 1 Flyers 5 +3.8
+0.4
Flyers 2 Flames 0 +3.8
+0.4
Predators 3 Flyers 5 +3.8
+0.4
Flyers 4 Panthers 1 +3.8
+0.4
Flyers 5 Capitals 4 (ot)+3.8
+0.4
Blue Jackets 5 Flyers 6 +3.7
+0.4
Blues 1 Flyers 3 +3.6
+0.4
Flyers 3 Capitals 0 +3.6
+0.4
Flyers 4 Red Wings 3 (ot)+3.5
+0.3
Flyers 4 Blue Jackets 3 +3.5
+0.4
Flyers 5 Devils 2 +3.5
+0.4
Flyers 5 Blackhawks 3 +3.4
+0.4
Flyers 2 Thrashers 0 +3.4
+0.4
Flyers 2 Ducks 1 (ot)+3.3
+0.3
Flyers 5 Sharks 3 +3.2
+0.3
Hurricanes 3 Flyers 2 (so)*-1.1
*-0.0
Coyotes 4 Penguins 5 (ot)*+1.0
Bruins 1 Flames 5 +0.9
Bruins 5 Canucks 4 -0.8
Flyers 4 Wild 5 (ot)*-0.8
-0.1
Panthers 2 Flames 1 -0.8
Predators 4 Rangers 3 (ot)*-0.8
*-0.0
Coyotes 7 Islanders 5 +0.7
Lightning 1 Red Wings 0 *-0.6
Maple Leafs 5 Blues 6 (so)*-0.6
Avalanche 3 Canadiens 4 *-0.6
Bruins 2 Sabres 4 *+0.5
Rangers 2 Red Wings 1 *-0.5
Rangers 6 Blue Jackets 0 *-0.5
Capitals 3 Senators 4 *+0.4
Senators 5 Avalanche 4 *-0.4
Flames 0 Rangers 5 *-0.4
Oilers 5 Panthers 3 *+0.4
Sharks 5 Sabres 2 *+0.3
Hurricanes 5 Capitals 3 *+0.3
Panthers 4 Ducks 1 *-0.3
Oilers 1 Sharks 5 *+0.3
Hurricanes 5 Maple Leafs 0 *+0.2
Ducks 4 Panthers 1 *+0.2
Flyers 5 Bruins 6 (so)*-0.2
Stars 4 Flyers 3 (ot)*-0.0
Canucks 2 Devils 3 (so)*-0.2
Rangers 5 Kings 4 (ot)-0.1
Kings 5 Thrashers 4 (ot)+0.1
Devils 2 Hurricanes 4 +0.1
Penguins 0 Bruins 3 +0.1
Hurricanes 7 Penguins 4 +0.1
Devils 1 Oilers 3 +0.0
Ducks 7 Blue Jackets 4 *-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Flyers vs Senators+2.0+1.8+1.4*-0.3*-0.6-3.2
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.1-0.1-0.3
Islanders vs Flyers-3.1-0.8*-0.5+1.9+1.3+1.3
-0.3-0.1*-0.1+0.2+0.1+0.1
Capitals vs Flyers-2.7*+0.2-1.2+1.5+2.1+2.3
-0.3*-0.0-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Senators vs Flyers-2.7*+0.1*-0.5+1.8+2.2+2.1
-0.3-0.0*-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.3
Hurricanes vs Flyers-2.6*-0.4*+0.5+1.6+1.7+2.3
-0.3*-0.0*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Flyers vs Penguins+1.8+1.6*+1.0*-0.2*-0.1-3.0
+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.3
Flyers vs Senators+1.8+1.6+1.1*-0.9*-0.3-3.0
+0.2+0.2+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.3
Maple Leafs vs Flyers-2.9*-0.7*-0.8+1.8+1.2+1.5
-0.3-0.1*-0.1+0.2+0.1+0.2
Penguins vs Flyers-2.3*-0.4*+0.2+1.6+2.3+1.9
-0.3-0.0*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.3
Flyers vs Lightning+1.6+1.5+1.5*-1.0-0.9-3.1
+0.2+0.1+0.2*-0.1-0.1-0.3
Flyers vs Lightning+1.6+1.5+1.3*-0.9*-0.2-3.1
+0.2+0.2*+0.1*-0.1*-0.1-0.3
Senators vs Flyers-2.4*-0.5*-0.5+1.7+2.0+2.2
-0.3*-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Flyers vs Canucks+1.4+1.4*+0.7-1.5*-0.8-3.1
+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.3
Penguins vs Flyers-2.4*-0.3*-0.3+1.6+2.0+2.1
-0.3-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.3
Devils vs Flyers-3.3*-0.8*-0.8+1.2+1.1+1.2
-0.3-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.1+0.1
Capitals vs Flyers-2.5*-0.0*-0.6+1.9+1.8+2.0
-0.3-0.1-0.1+0.3+0.2+0.2
Flyers vs Maple Leafs+1.0+1.3+1.4*-0.8*-0.8-3.0
+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.3
Flyers vs Rangers+1.8+1.3+2.5*+0.4*-0.1-1.9
+0.3+0.2+0.2*+0.0-0.1-0.3
Flyers vs Sabres+1.8+2.0+2.0*+0.7*-0.2-2.4
+0.2+0.2+0.2+0.0-0.1-0.3
Flyers vs Islanders+1.1+1.1*+0.7*-1.3-1.0-3.3
+0.1+0.1*+0.1*-0.1-0.1-0.4
Flyers vs Predators+1.0+1.3+1.3*-0.7-1.3-3.0
+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.1-0.1-0.3
Sabres vs Flyers-2.1*+0.2*-0.1+2.2+2.2+2.1
-0.2-0.0-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Islanders vs Flyers-2.9*-0.5*-0.4+1.1+1.0+1.3
-0.3*-0.1*-0.1*+0.1+0.1+0.1
Flyers vs Sabres+1.7+2.0+1.4*+0.3*+0.3-2.3
+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.0-0.0-0.3
Flyers vs Avalanche+1.0+0.9+1.1*-0.0*-0.4-3.2
+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.3
Flyers vs Kings+1.6+2.0*+1.1*+0.2*-0.3-2.2
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.0*-0.0-0.3
Flyers vs Panthers+1.2+1.0*+0.4*-0.2*-0.3-3.0
+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.1*-0.1-0.3
Flyers vs Coyotes+1.2+1.3*+0.8*-0.6*-0.3-2.9
+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0-0.1-0.3
Maple Leafs vs Flyers-2.8*-0.3*+0.0*+1.0+1.3+1.4
-0.3-0.1*-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Flyers finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
140440-0In1008
130384-2In50502*
128375-2In33673*
127354-5In802010*
126366-2In11612818*
125345-5In20503040*
124346-4In14662064*
123336-5In760321118*
122337-4In553411192*
121327-5In246484302*
120328-4In143524480*
119318-5In13505680722*
118319-4In128059121,022*
117309-5In0230591701,463*
116299-6In0171552701,983*
1152910-5In0131553112,651*
1142810-6In91494023,290*
1132811-5In614347303,958*
1122711-6In41365454,794*
1112712-5In212860905,405*
1102612-6In1122611315,979*
1092613-5In11166220206,434*
1082513-6100.0%001058284006,674*
1072514-5100.000650367106,679*
1062414-699.9003414113206,755*
1052415-599.7002294520406,352*
1042315-699.201204229816,042*
1032316-597.8001236361425,381*
1022216-695.806283922404,817*
1012217-590.4003213828904,145*
1002117-682.811233361613,495*
992118-573.30626412522,762*
982018-662.70418413342,242*
972019-552.40214374081,636*
961919-637.3173049131,222*
951920-525.2032154200948*
941820-616.911655281650*
931821-513.311251351475*
921721-65.5648451290*
911621-73.6435593194*
901622-62.3242487130*
891522-7Out256212177*
881523-6Out11741638*
871322-9Out6563918*
861424-6Out6722218*
851526-3Out63388*
841426-4Out50504*
811025-9Out1001
801228-4Out1001
52044-0Out1008
Total:93.1%030153220139510000100,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Lottery seed
Flyers 2 Canadiens 4 +1.2
Flyers 1 Hurricanes 2 +1.2
Flyers 2 Stars 5 +1.2
Flyers 0 Oilers 5 +1.1
Thrashers 2 Flyers 1 +1.1
Rangers 5 Flyers 3 +1.1
Rangers 2 Flyers 3 -1.1
Flames 6 Flyers 4 +1.0
Red Wings 5 Flyers 1 +1.0
Thrashers 5 Flyers 3 +1.0
Devils 0 Flyers 1 -1.0
Canadiens 5 Flyers 1 +1.0
Ducks 3 Flyers 1 +1.0
Sharks 5 Flyers 1 +1.0
Kings 3 Flyers 2 +1.0
Blackhawks 6 Flyers 4 +0.9
Lightning 0 Flyers 4 -0.9
Flyers 4 Rangers 2 -0.9
Canucks 1 Flyers 5 -0.9
Predators 3 Flyers 5 -0.8
Blues 1 Flyers 3 -0.8
Blue Jackets 5 Flyers 6 -0.8
Lightning 3 Flyers 4 -0.8
Bruins 3 Flyers 8 -0.8
Flyers 5 Penguins 3 -0.8
Flyers 6 Hurricanes 3 -0.8
Flyers 2 Flames 0 -0.8
Flyers 5 Devils 2 -0.8
Flyers 4 Thrashers 3 -0.8
Flyers 5 Blackhawks 3 -0.8
Flyers 4 Panthers 1 -0.7
Flyers 4 Blue Jackets 3 -0.7
Flyers 5 Capitals 4 (ot)-0.7
Flyers 3 Capitals 0 -0.7
Flyers 5 Sharks 3 -0.7
Flyers 2 Thrashers 0 -0.7
Flyers 2 Ducks 1 (ot)-0.7
Flyers 4 Red Wings 3 (ot)-0.7
Canucks 2 Devils 3 (so)*+0.4
Rangers 5 Kings 4 (ot)*+0.3
Flyers 4 Wild 5 (ot)+0.2
Maple Leafs 4 Canucks 3 (ot)+0.2
Blues 2 Capitals 3 (so)*+0.2
Blue Jackets 3 Devils 4 (ot)*+0.2
Hurricanes 3 Penguins 2 -0.2
Kings 5 Thrashers 4 (ot)-0.2
Coyotes 4 Penguins 5 (ot)*-0.2
Stars 5 Blackhawks 6 (so)*-0.2
Devils 2 Hurricanes 4 -0.1
Devils 3 Sharks 5 -0.1
Penguins 0 Bruins 3 -0.1
Predators 4 Rangers 3 (ot)*+0.1
Thrashers 4 Penguins 5 +0.1
Coyotes 3 Maple Leafs 1 -0.1
Hurricanes 3 Flyers 2 (so)*+0.1
Bruins 2 Penguins 3 *+0.1
Stars 4 Flyers 3 (ot)*+0.1
Islanders 5 Capitals 3 -0.0
Flyers 5 Bruins 6 (so)*-0.0
Lightning 7 Islanders 3 -0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Senators vs Flyers+0.6*+0.0*+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.5
Flyers vs Penguins-0.4-0.4-0.3*+0.2+0.1+0.7
Flyers vs Senators-0.4-0.4-0.4+0.1+0.2+0.7
Penguins vs Flyers+0.6*+0.1*+0.1-0.5-0.5-0.5
Penguins vs Flyers+0.6+0.1+0.1-0.4-0.5-0.5
Flyers vs Senators-0.4-0.4-0.3+0.2+0.2+0.7
Sabres vs Flyers+0.5+0.0+0.0-0.5-0.5-0.6
Sabres vs Flyers+0.5+0.0+0.0-0.6-0.5-0.6
Flyers vs Rangers-0.5-0.4-0.5*-0.0+0.1+0.5
Flyers vs Sabres-0.5-0.4-0.4-0.0+0.1+0.6
Islanders vs Flyers+0.7*+0.2+0.2-0.4-0.3-0.3
Capitals vs Flyers+0.5+0.1*+0.1-0.5-0.4-0.5
Senators vs Flyers+0.6+0.1*+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.5
Capitals vs Flyers+0.6+0.1+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.5
Hurricanes vs Flyers+0.6*+0.1*+0.0-0.4-0.4-0.5
Flyers vs Sabres-0.5-0.4-0.4+0.0+0.1+0.6
Flyers vs Lightning-0.3-0.3-0.4*+0.2+0.2+0.6
Devils vs Flyers+0.7*+0.2*+0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3
Flyers vs Kings-0.4-0.5-0.3*+0.0+0.1+0.5
Flyers vs Islanders-0.2-0.3-0.2+0.2+0.2+0.7
Maple Leafs vs Flyers+0.6+0.2+0.1-0.3-0.3-0.3
Flyers vs Maple Leafs-0.2-0.3-0.3+0.3+0.2+0.7
Oilers vs Flyers+0.5*+0.0*+0.0-0.5-0.5-0.4
Flyers vs Blues-0.3-0.4-0.4*+0.1*+0.1+0.6
Flyers vs Lightning-0.3-0.3*-0.3*+0.1*+0.1+0.6
Flyers vs Coyotes-0.3-0.3-0.2*+0.1+0.2+0.7
Flyers vs Canucks-0.3-0.3-0.2+0.3+0.2+0.7
Flyers vs Islanders-0.2-0.2*-0.2*+0.2+0.2+0.7
Islanders vs Flyers+0.6+0.2*+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.3
Flyers vs Avalanche-0.2-0.2-0.3+0.2+0.2+0.7
Wild vs Flyers+0.4*+0.0*+0.1-0.5-0.5-0.5
Panthers vs Flyers+0.6*+0.1*+0.1-0.3-0.3-0.3
Flyers vs Devils-0.2-0.2-0.2*+0.3+0.3+0.7
Coyotes vs Flyers+0.6*+0.1*+0.1-0.3-0.4-0.3
Flyers vs Panthers-0.3-0.2*-0.2*+0.1+0.1+0.7
Panthers vs Flyers+0.6*+0.1*+0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3
Bruins vs Flyers+0.6*+0.1*+0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3
Avalanche vs Flyers+0.6+0.2+0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3
Maple Leafs vs Flyers+0.6+0.1*+0.2-0.2-0.3-0.3
Canadiens vs Flyers+0.4*-0.1-0.1-0.4-0.5-0.5
Flyers vs Canadiens-0.5-0.4-0.5*-0.0*-0.0+0.4

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
140440-0100
130384-25050
128375-23367
127354-58020
126366-2116128
125345-51835030
124346-4146620
123336-575913111
122337-4415224011
121327-5204424624
120328-4114045024
119318-510306052480
118319-41235051812
117309-500166047121700
116299-6098139152710
1152910-50671033222921
1142810-6361023263452
1132811-524101528389300
1122711-60310927371750
1112712-502104243425810
1102612-60110221273411210
1092613-501001151943155200
1082513-6000010114718114000
1072514-50000664417186110
1062414-600003238142611320
1052415-500021281134146400
1042315-60010196361712801
1032316-50001233316201222
1022216-606127132619440
1012217-500302183021790
1002117-610124292313161
992118-5006224221923400
982018-60411715252971
972019-502013928311420
961919-61075243522410
951920-50331832291210
941820-611142336204
931821-5112193224101
921721-6613332817200
911621-74520313272
901622-623113235152
891522-76253925131
881523-65213721133
871322-9622173917
861424-66282228116
851526-363131313
841426-4502525
811025-9100
801228-4100
52044-0100
Total:00210069122071367534210000000