How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Red Wings 3 Blackhawks 4 -5.9
-0.6
Red Wings 1 Flames 2 -5.6
-0.6
Red Wings 3 Blues 4 -5.6
-0.6
Red Wings 4 Oilers 6 -5.6
-0.6
Red Wings 3 Sharks 6 -5.5
-0.6
Oilers 4 Red Wings 1 -5.2
-0.5
Red Wings 1 Canadiens 3 -5.1
-0.5
Lightning 1 Red Wings 0 -5.1
-0.5
Capitals 5 Red Wings 1 -4.9
-0.5
Coyotes 4 Red Wings 2 -4.9
-0.5
Wild 5 Red Wings 1 -4.9
-0.5
Sabres 8 Red Wings 3 -4.7
-0.5
Flames 2 Red Wings 3 +4.6
+0.5
Avalanche 3 Red Wings 4 +4.6
+0.5
Penguins 3 Red Wings 1 -4.6
-0.5
Canadiens 3 Red Wings 0 -4.5
-0.5
Islanders 4 Red Wings 5 +4.5
+0.4
Predators 2 Red Wings 6 +4.5
+0.5
Red Wings 3 Coyotes 2 (so)+4.5
+0.4
Rangers 2 Red Wings 1 -4.4
-0.5
Kings 1 Red Wings 3 +4.3
+0.5
Red Wings 3 Predators 1 +4.3
+0.4
Red Wings 4 Blue Jackets 3 +4.3
+0.4
Stars 2 Red Wings 3 (ot)+4.2
+0.4
Bruins 3 Red Wings 4 +3.9
+0.4
Red Wings 3 Avalanche 2 +3.9
+0.4
Red Wings 3 Blues 2 +3.8
+0.4
Red Wings 5 Predators 2 +3.7
+0.4
Red Wings 6 Islanders 1 +3.7
+0.4
Red Wings 4 Coyotes 3 +3.7
+0.4
Red Wings 6 Penguins 5 (so)+3.5
+0.3
Red Wings 5 Flyers 1 +3.3
+0.4
Red Wings 5 Thrashers 0 +3.2
+0.3
Red Wings 3 Rangers 2 +3.1
+0.3
Coyotes 3 Red Wings 4 (ot)+2.9
+0.3
Red Wings 3 Canucks 2 (ot)+2.9
+0.3
Thrashers 5 Canadiens 4 (so)-2.1
Stars 3 Devils 2 (ot)-1.5
Predators 1 Bruins 4 +1.1
Avalanche 3 Coyotes 5 +0.9
Penguins 6 Stars 1 +0.8
Penguins 3 Blues 4 -0.8
Thrashers 5 Oilers 3 +0.7
Stars 4 Flyers 3 (ot)*-0.7
Penguins 3 Predators 4 *-0.7
*-0.1
Oilers 5 Red Wings 4 (so)*-0.6
*-0.1
Flyers 4 Blue Jackets 3 *+0.4
Red Wings 3 Oilers 4 (so)*-0.4
*-0.1
Sabres 5 Thrashers 4 *-0.4
Thrashers 4 Red Wings 3 (ot)*-0.3
*-0.1
Flyers 4 Red Wings 3 (ot)*-0.3
*-0.1
Islanders 2 Hurricanes 4 *+0.3
Coyotes 5 Sabres 4 *-0.3
Predators 4 Red Wings 3 (so)*-0.2
Predators 2 Kings 3 (ot)*+0.2
Stars 2 Rangers 1 (so)*+0.2
Wild 7 Blue Jackets 3 *-0.2
Blackhawks 2 Devils 0 -0.1
Wild 3 Blues 5 -0.1
Blue Jackets 1 Sabres 3 +0.1
Rangers 6 Blue Jackets 0 +0.0
Blackhawks 1 Penguins 0 *-0.0
Blue Jackets 1 Canucks 2 (ot)*+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Blue Jackets vs Red Wings-7.3-1.8-2.4+5.4+5.0+6.7
-0.4-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Red Wings vs Blue Jackets+5.4+3.7+3.9-3.1-3.0-8.2
+0.3+0.2+0.2-0.2-0.1-0.4
Blue Jackets vs Red Wings-6.8-2.1-3.3+4.6+5.3+6.3
-0.4-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.3+0.3
Red Wings vs Blackhawks+4.7+3.1+3.2*-1.7-1.8-8.1
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Blackhawks vs Red Wings-6.9-2.2*-1.8+5.3+4.3+5.8
-0.4-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.2+0.3
Red Wings vs Flames+4.5+3.6+2.1*-1.9-2.2-8.0
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.1-0.1-0.4
Blackhawks vs Red Wings-6.6-2.1*-1.5+5.3+4.8+5.4
-0.4-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Flames vs Red Wings-6.8*-1.1*-0.7+5.1+4.0+4.8
-0.4*-0.0*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.3
Ducks vs Red Wings-4.6*+0.9*-0.4+6.7+4.6+5.1
-0.3*+0.0*-0.0+0.4+0.3+0.3
Red Wings vs Wild+4.8+3.9+6.0*-0.3*-0.4-5.2
+0.3+0.3+0.3*+0.0*-0.0-0.3
Red Wings vs Capitals+3.7+3.8+5.1*-1.0*-0.7-5.9
+0.2+0.2+0.3*-0.0*-0.1-0.3
Blues vs Red Wings-5.3*+0.6*-0.4+5.0+5.6+5.3
-0.4-0.0-0.1+0.3+0.4+0.5
Blues vs Red Wings-5.1*-0.0*-0.0+5.8+5.0+5.4
-0.4-0.1-0.0+0.4+0.3+0.5
Red Wings vs Canucks+3.6+3.8+2.1*-1.4-2.3-7.0
+0.2+0.2*+0.1*-0.1-0.1-0.4
Red Wings vs Stars+4.3+4.4+5.0*-0.5*-0.8-5.7
+0.3+0.2+0.3*-0.1-0.1-0.3
Sharks vs Red Wings-4.9*-0.8*+1.2+5.0+4.2+5.8
-0.3*-0.0*+0.0+0.3+0.3+0.4
Senators vs Red Wings-4.9*-0.5*-0.8+5.8+4.5+4.7
-0.3*-0.1*+0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Kings vs Red Wings-4.6*-0.1*+0.5+5.6+5.9+5.2
-0.3*-0.0*+0.0+0.4+0.4+0.3
Sharks vs Red Wings-5.0*-0.0*-0.1+4.0+5.5+5.5
-0.3*-0.0*-0.0+0.2+0.3+0.3
Canucks vs Red Wings-6.1*-1.1*-0.8+3.6+3.6+4.3
-0.3-0.1*+0.0+0.2+0.2+0.3
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings-6.5-1.4-2.2+3.9+3.6+3.8
-0.4-0.1*-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Canucks vs Red Wings-6.1*-0.5*-1.1+3.5+3.7+4.2
-0.4*-0.1*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.3
Red Wings vs Hurricanes+3.8+4.3+4.0*-0.0*-0.3-6.1
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.0*-0.0-0.4
Red Wings vs Maple Leafs+2.9+3.2+3.4*-2.2-1.7-7.0
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.2-0.1-0.4
Red Wings vs Bruins+3.1+3.6+3.2-3.0-2.0-6.7
+0.2+0.2*+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.4
Avalanche vs Red Wings-6.5*-0.7*-1.8+3.7+3.0+3.4
-0.4*-0.1*-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Red Wings vs Kings+4.7+4.6+4.8*-0.8*+0.4-5.5
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.0*-0.0-0.3
Red Wings vs Stars+4.6+4.1+4.3*-1.2*-0.5-5.7
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1-0.0-0.3
Hurricanes vs Red Wings-5.1*-0.7*+0.9+5.0+4.6+5.0
-0.3*-0.0*+0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Red Wings vs Devils+2.3+2.3+2.8*-1.5-2.6-7.4
+0.1+0.1*+0.1*-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Red Wings vs Sharks+4.7+4.6+4.7*-1.6*-1.1-5.5
+0.3+0.3+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.3
Red Wings vs Wild+4.8+4.8+3.9*-0.3*-0.2-5.3
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.0*-0.0-0.3
Stars vs Red Wings-4.9*-0.5*+0.4+4.4+5.0+5.2
-0.3*-0.0+0.0+0.2+0.3+0.3
Red Wings vs Kings+4.3+4.9+3.1*-0.4*+0.3-5.1
+0.3+0.3+0.2*-0.0*-0.0-0.3
Red Wings vs Ducks+4.0+4.8+3.8*+0.2*+0.7-5.2
+0.3+0.3+0.2*-0.0*-0.0-0.3
Red Wings vs Senators+3.8+4.0+3.4*-0.1*-0.6-5.9
+0.2+0.2+0.3*+0.0*-0.1-0.4
Wild vs Red Wings-4.4*+0.3*+0.8+5.5+5.1+5.1
-0.3*+0.0*+0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Red Wings vs Panthers+3.2+3.2+2.7*-2.3-1.5-6.6
+0.2+0.2+0.1*-0.1-0.1-0.4
Red Wings vs Ducks+4.4+4.1+4.3*+0.9*+0.2-5.4
+0.3+0.2+0.3*-0.0-0.0-0.3
Panthers vs Red Wings-5.9*-0.6*-1.4+3.2+3.7+3.8
-0.4*-0.1*-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Red Wings vs Sabres+4.6+4.4+4.6*+0.5*-0.1-5.0
+0.3+0.3+0.3*+0.0*-0.0-0.3
Red Wings vs Avalanche+2.6+2.5+2.9*+0.1-1.8-6.8
+0.2+0.1+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.4
Red Wings vs Lightning+3.6+3.6+2.9-2.5-1.5-6.0
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Ducks vs Red Wings-4.3*+0.2*-0.9+4.4+4.9+5.2
-0.3*-0.0*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Devils vs Red Wings-6.4-2.4*-1.8+3.1+2.4+3.0
-0.4-0.2*-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Red Wings finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
123-137In10011*
122355-5In67333*
121367-2In1003*
120335-7In64142114*
119336-6In633719*
118337-5In6432425*
117327-6In255914264*
116328-5In20452852102*
115318-6In11503332147*
114319-5In64142832264*
113309-6In333525510421*
1123010-5In121598820628*
1112910-6In0176061151831*
1102810-7In010616137301,233*
1092811-6In045641415611,624*
1082711-7In35421119922,202*
1072712-6In14619191842,669*
1062612-799.9%042162123803,399*
1052613-699.70330418291504,006*
1042513-799.40280214332214,712*
1032514-698.902201103431105,326*
1022414-796.8017183240305,905*
1012415-694.313042750606,356*
1002315-789.880221591006,355*
992316-684.06115611516,510*
982216-775.140116023206,585*
972217-664.72065631406,145*
962117-755.010450377105,887*
952118-643.110141431315,330*
942018-732.6001314519204,856*
932019-622.100224527504,061*
921919-714.9001541331013,406*
911920-69.7010343716202,803*
901820-75.005264123402,125*
891821-61.92173833911,670*
881721-70.501035371521,316*
871621-80.4052743214936*
861622-70.10417422970693*
851623-6Out21539368500*
841523-7Out163041192326*
831524-6Out132444262219*
821424-7Out31348334120*
811425-6Out53948884*
801325-7Out54146839*
791225-8Out3759427*
781327-5Out33501718*
771126-8Out1005*
761127-7Out33676*
751128-6Out2040405*
47-71Out1009*
Total:68.3%0114025133318841000100,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Lottery seed
Red Wings 3 Blackhawks 4 +1.2
Red Wings 1 Flames 2 +1.2
Red Wings 3 Blues 4 +1.2
Red Wings 3 Sharks 6 +1.1
Red Wings 4 Oilers 6 +1.1
Red Wings 1 Canadiens 3 +1.1
Oilers 4 Red Wings 1 +1.1
Lightning 1 Red Wings 0 +1.0
Capitals 5 Red Wings 1 +1.0
Wild 5 Red Wings 1 +1.0
Coyotes 4 Red Wings 2 +1.0
Sabres 8 Red Wings 3 +1.0
Penguins 3 Red Wings 1 +1.0
Canadiens 3 Red Wings 0 +1.0
Rangers 2 Red Wings 1 +0.9
Flames 2 Red Wings 3 -0.9
Avalanche 3 Red Wings 4 -0.9
Islanders 4 Red Wings 5 -0.9
Predators 2 Red Wings 6 -0.9
Kings 1 Red Wings 3 -0.9
Red Wings 4 Blue Jackets 3 -0.9
Bruins 3 Red Wings 4 -0.9
Stars 2 Red Wings 3 (ot)-0.9
Red Wings 3 Predators 1 -0.9
Red Wings 3 Coyotes 2 (so)-0.8
Red Wings 3 Blues 2 -0.8
Red Wings 5 Predators 2 -0.8
Red Wings 3 Avalanche 2 -0.8
Red Wings 6 Islanders 1 -0.8
Red Wings 4 Coyotes 3 -0.8
Red Wings 5 Flyers 1 -0.7
Red Wings 5 Thrashers 0 -0.7
Red Wings 3 Rangers 2 -0.7
Coyotes 3 Red Wings 4 (ot)-0.7
Red Wings 3 Canucks 2 (ot)-0.6
Red Wings 6 Penguins 5 (so)*-0.6
Kings 3 Ducks 2 (so)+0.3
Islanders 3 Devils 4 (so)*-0.3
Blues 2 Bruins 3 (so)+0.2
Kings 3 Blues 4 (so)*+0.2
Canucks 2 Devils 3 (so)*-0.2
Red Wings 3 Oilers 4 (so)*+0.2
Thrashers 4 Red Wings 3 (ot)*+0.2
Predators 1 Bruins 4 -0.2
Stars 4 Flyers 3 (ot)*+0.2
Oilers 5 Red Wings 4 (so)+0.1
Flyers 4 Red Wings 3 (ot)+0.1
Blue Jackets 1 Sabres 3 -0.1
Bruins 3 Predators 4 (so)*-0.1
Flyers 4 Blue Jackets 3 -0.1
Predators 3 Islanders 2 +0.0
Flyers 5 Sharks 3 *-0.0
Sharks 4 Flames 3 *-0.0
Maple Leafs 1 Sharks 2 *-0.0
Penguins 2 Senators 1 *+0.0
Capitals 0 Penguins 1 *+0.0
Thrashers 4 Capitals 0 *+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Blues vs Red Wings+0.8+0.1+0.2-0.7-0.8-1.0
Blues vs Red Wings+0.8+0.2*+0.0-0.8-0.6-1.0
Blue Jackets vs Red Wings+0.7*+0.2*+0.1-0.6-0.5-0.6
Blackhawks vs Red Wings+0.8*+0.2*+0.1-0.6-0.5-0.6
Sharks vs Red Wings+0.6*+0.0*-0.0-0.5-0.5-0.7
Ducks vs Red Wings+0.6*-0.0*+0.1-0.8-0.6-0.6
Blackhawks vs Red Wings+0.7+0.2+0.2-0.6-0.5-0.6
Red Wings vs Blue Jackets-0.5-0.4-0.4*+0.3+0.3+0.8
Red Wings vs Sharks-0.6-0.5-0.5+0.2+0.1+0.7
Blue Jackets vs Red Wings+0.7+0.2+0.2-0.5-0.6-0.6
Senators vs Red Wings+0.6*+0.1*+0.0-0.7-0.5-0.6
Red Wings vs Stars-0.6-0.5-0.6*+0.1+0.2+0.7
Kings vs Red Wings+0.6*+0.1*-0.1-0.7-0.7-0.7
Red Wings vs Kings-0.6-0.6-0.5*+0.1*+0.1+0.7
Stars vs Red Wings+0.6*+0.0*-0.0*-0.4-0.6-0.7
Sharks vs Red Wings+0.6*+0.0*+0.0-0.5-0.6-0.7
Red Wings vs Flames-0.4-0.4-0.3*+0.2+0.2+0.8
Flames vs Red Wings+0.8*+0.1*+0.1-0.4-0.5-0.5
Red Wings vs Blackhawks-0.5-0.4-0.4*+0.1+0.2+0.8
Red Wings vs Senators-0.5-0.5-0.5*-0.0*+0.1+0.7
Red Wings vs Capitals-0.5-0.5-0.6*+0.1+0.1+0.7
Hurricanes vs Red Wings+0.6+0.1-0.0-0.5-0.6-0.6
Red Wings vs Kings-0.6-0.6-0.6*+0.0*+0.0+0.7
Red Wings vs Hurricanes-0.5-0.5-0.5+0.1+0.1+0.7
Red Wings vs Wild-0.6-0.6-0.6*+0.1+0.0+0.7
Red Wings vs Stars-0.6-0.5-0.5*+0.1*+0.1+0.7
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings+0.8+0.3*+0.2-0.5-0.5-0.4
Red Wings vs Ducks-0.6-0.5-0.6*+0.1-0.0+0.6
Ducks vs Red Wings+0.6*+0.0*+0.1-0.7-0.6-0.7
Red Wings vs Ducks-0.5-0.6-0.4*+0.1*+0.0+0.6
Red Wings vs Lightning-0.5-0.4-0.4+0.3+0.2+0.8
Red Wings vs Wild-0.6-0.5-0.6*+0.0*+0.1+0.6
Panthers vs Red Wings+0.7+0.1*+0.1-0.5-0.4-0.5
Avalanche vs Red Wings+0.8+0.2+0.2-0.4-0.4-0.4
Red Wings vs Maple Leafs-0.3-0.4-0.4*+0.3+0.2+0.8
Wild vs Red Wings+0.5*-0.0*-0.1-0.7-0.6-0.7
Red Wings vs Panthers-0.4-0.4-0.3+0.3+0.3+0.8
Canucks vs Red Wings+0.7+0.1*+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.5
Red Wings vs Canucks-0.4-0.4*-0.3+0.2+0.3+0.8
Red Wings vs Sabres-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.1*+0.1+0.6
Canucks vs Red Wings+0.7+0.2*+0.0-0.4-0.4-0.5
Red Wings vs Avalanche-0.3-0.3-0.4+0.3+0.3+0.8
Red Wings vs Bruins-0.4-0.4-0.3+0.3+0.2+0.8
Red Wings vs Devils-0.3-0.2-0.2+0.2+0.3+0.9

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
137450-0100
123354-6100
122355-56733
121367-2100
120335-7647721
119336-66337
118337-5644284
117327-625653142
116328-511912332852
115318-611446331212
114319-561394024332
113309-63132484235110
1123010-5121509266120
1112910-600174713159251
1102810-70104516151037030
1092811-6043620137714161
1082711-7329250256172902
1072712-6120271261451814
1062612-701328115137212800
1052613-60825004992541500
1042513-704240025102482111
1032514-6032000128201428410
1022414-70116117141833730
1012415-61120048193516500
1002315-7080023173227910
992316-60601214243712400
982216-7040010164416820
972217-620069471814400
962117-710045451621810
952118-6100123914241530
942018-700113192823610
932019-600022627301320
921919-70015322352051
911920-6001021535281020
901820-7051931321840
891821-620422352781
881721-70021433321630
871621-8017263723600
861622-7004173728122
851623-621032361820
841523-7152334241120
831524-62133235153
821424-72822352310
811425-6143238141
801325-731528361333
791225-83344157
781327-522392811
771126-8602020
761127-7175033
751128-6402040
71829-8100
47045-0100
Total:0001590011236713207875311000000