"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Hurricanes 2 Lightning 3 -6.0
-0.6
Hurricanes 1 Lightning 2 -5.9
-0.6
Hurricanes 2 Senators 3 -5.6
-0.6
Hurricanes 1 Avalanche 3 -5.5
-0.6
Hurricanes 3 Blue Jackets 4 -5.5
-0.5
Lightning 4 Hurricanes 3 -5.4
-0.6
Canadiens 7 Hurricanes 2 -5.2
-0.5
Canadiens 3 Hurricanes 2 -5.0
-0.5
Flyers 1 Hurricanes 2 +5.0
+0.5
Flyers 6 Hurricanes 3 -4.9
-0.5
Kings 6 Hurricanes 2 -4.8
-0.5
Islanders 2 Hurricanes 4 +4.7
+0.5
Oilers 3 Hurricanes 1 -4.7
-0.5
Canucks 6 Hurricanes 5 -4.7
-0.5
Senators 3 Hurricanes 5 +4.7
+0.5
Bruins 4 Hurricanes 5 +4.6
+0.5
Senators 5 Hurricanes 1 -4.6
-0.5
Coyotes 5 Hurricanes 4 -4.5
-0.5
Devils 2 Hurricanes 4 +4.5
+0.5
Wild 3 Hurricanes 0 -4.4
-0.5
Blue Jackets 6 Hurricanes 3 -4.4
-0.5
Lightning 3 Hurricanes 5 +4.4
+0.5
Blackhawks 2 Hurricanes 4 +4.4
+0.4
Flames 4 Hurricanes 5 (ot)+4.0
+0.4
Hurricanes 4 Maple Leafs 1 +4.0
+0.4
Hurricanes 5 Maple Leafs 0 +3.9
+0.4
Hurricanes 5 Canadiens 2 +3.9
+0.4
Sharks 3 Hurricanes 4 +3.8
+0.4
Hurricanes 6 Senators 1 +3.8
+0.4
Hurricanes 3 Penguins 2 +3.8
+0.4
Hurricanes 5 Capitals 3 +3.7
+0.4
Hurricanes 2 Rangers 1 +3.7
+0.4
Hurricanes 4 Sabres 3 (so)+3.6
+0.4
Hurricanes 3 Sabres 2 +3.6
+0.3
Hurricanes 3 Thrashers 2 +3.6
+0.4
Hurricanes 5 Ducks 4 (so)+3.5
+0.3
Hurricanes 7 Penguins 4 +3.3
+0.4
Hurricanes 3 Flyers 2 (so)+3.2
+0.3
Hurricanes 4 Canucks 1 +3.0
+0.3
Coyotes 4 Penguins 5 (ot)-1.5
Blues 2 Sabres 3 (ot)-1.5
Blue Jackets 1 Canucks 2 (ot)+1.5
Stars 1 Capitals 2 (so)*+0.9
Thrashers 1 Wild 3 +0.9
Avalanche 3 Capitals 4 -0.8
Sharks 2 Rangers 5 -0.8
Sharks 4 Bruins 3 +0.7
Stars 2 Thrashers 1 *+0.7
Kings 3 Capitals 2 *+0.7
+0.1
Predators 1 Bruins 4 *-0.6
Maple Leafs 4 Hurricanes 3 (so)*-0.5
*-0.0
Penguins 3 Blackhawks 1 *-0.4
Capitals 0 Penguins 1 *+0.4
Flyers 4 Red Wings 3 (ot)*-0.3
Kings 4 Canadiens 3 *+0.3
Canucks 0 Kings 5 *-0.3
Senators 5 Predators 3 *+0.2
Hurricanes 4 Oilers 5 (so)*-0.2
*-0.0
Senators 3 Blues 2 *-0.2
Blackhawks 2 Capitals 5 *-0.1
Islanders 5 Capitals 3 +0.1
Blue Jackets 3 Thrashers 5 -0.1
Panthers 6 Kings 4 -0.1
Senators 6 Lightning 3 +0.1
Flyers 4 Panthers 1 +0.0
Blues 2 Capitals 3 (so)*-0.0
Islanders 4 Ducks 3 (ot)*-0.0
Lightning 3 Flames 4 (so)*+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Capitals vs Hurricanes-5.9*-0.8*-0.8+4.8+4.4+5.3
-0.5-0.1-0.1+0.4+0.3+0.4
Hurricanes vs Capitals+4.4+3.1+2.3*-1.7-1.6-6.3
+0.4+0.3+0.2-0.2-0.2-0.5
Thrashers vs Hurricanes-5.3*-0.0*+0.4+3.9+3.9+5.0
-0.4-0.1*-0.0+0.4+0.3+0.5
Capitals vs Hurricanes-5.3*-0.4*-1.0+3.8+3.4+5.0
-0.4-0.1-0.2+0.3+0.3+0.4
Thrashers vs Hurricanes-5.1*-0.9*-0.0+4.1+4.2+5.1
-0.4-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.5
Hurricanes vs Flyers+4.0+3.6+3.9*-1.1*-1.1-5.9
+0.3+0.2+0.3*-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Hurricanes vs Thrashers+4.0+3.2+3.1*-1.1*-1.0-5.8
+0.4+0.3+0.3-0.2-0.2-0.5
Penguins vs Hurricanes-4.9*-0.3*-1.0+3.6+3.6+4.9
-0.4-0.1-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.4
Stars vs Hurricanes-4.4*-0.1*+0.1+5.3+4.2+4.2
-0.3*-0.0*-0.0+0.4+0.3+0.3
Penguins vs Hurricanes-5.0*-0.1*-0.6+4.1+4.6+4.4
-0.4*+0.0*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Hurricanes vs Flames+2.9+2.8+3.4*-1.2-2.3-6.2
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.1-0.2-0.5
Hurricanes vs Wild+4.2+3.4+4.7*-0.6*-0.4-4.8
+0.3+0.3+0.4*-0.1*-0.0-0.4
Rangers vs Hurricanes-3.8*+0.5*+1.3+5.6+4.3+4.6
-0.3*+0.0*+0.1+0.4+0.3+0.4
Hurricanes vs Kings+4.1+3.5+4.3*-0.3*-0.6-5.0
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.0*-0.1-0.4
Sabres vs Hurricanes-4.3*+0.4*+0.1+4.2+5.0+4.8
-0.3*+0.0*+0.0+0.3+0.3+0.4
Hurricanes vs Islanders+2.4+2.3+2.3-2.5-1.5-6.9
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.1-0.2-0.5
Hurricanes vs Devils+2.0+2.0+2.1*-1.7*-1.3-7.2
+0.1+0.1*+0.1*-0.1-0.1-0.5
Bruins vs Hurricanes-5.6*-0.9*+0.4+2.5+3.5+3.0
-0.4-0.1*-0.0+0.2+0.3+0.2
Hurricanes vs Blackhawks+3.0+3.1+3.1*-0.1-1.9-6.0
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.1-0.1-0.4
Panthers vs Hurricanes-5.5-1.2*-0.9+3.6+3.5+2.9
-0.4-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.2
Devils vs Hurricanes-6.4-1.9*-0.4+2.0+2.3+2.7
-0.5-0.2-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Rangers vs Hurricanes-3.8*+0.7*-0.2+3.9+5.3+4.7
-0.3*+0.0-0.0+0.4+0.4+0.4
Hurricanes vs Red Wings+3.1+2.6+3.6*-0.7*-1.1-5.4
+0.2+0.2+0.3*-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Blues vs Hurricanes-4.6*+0.2*+0.4+3.7+4.1+4.4
-0.3*-0.0*+0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Hurricanes vs Predators+2.5+2.6+1.9-2.7-1.4-6.4
+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.2*-0.1-0.5
Hurricanes vs Devils+2.1+1.8+1.7*-0.8-2.8-6.9
+0.1+0.1*+0.1*-0.1-0.2-0.5
Hurricanes vs Bruins+2.8+2.3+2.7*-1.7*-1.2-6.2
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.1-0.1-0.5
Hurricanes vs Bruins+2.5+2.6+2.9*+0.5-1.6-6.1
+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.5
Hurricanes vs Panthers+2.7+2.7+2.0*-1.1-2.0-6.2
+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.5
Hurricanes vs Sharks+3.7+3.6+3.1*-0.3*-0.7-5.1
+0.3+0.3+0.2*-0.1*-0.0-0.4
Hurricanes vs Panthers+2.8+2.2+2.5*-1.3-1.5-6.0
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.1-0.2-0.5
Hurricanes vs Islanders+2.3+1.8+2.0*-2.2*-1.4-6.4
+0.2+0.1+0.2*-0.1*-0.1-0.5
Avalanche vs Hurricanes-5.8-1.3*-1.0+2.9+2.8+2.7
-0.4-0.1*-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Hurricanes vs Coyotes+2.8+3.0+2.2-2.6-1.9-5.7
+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.4
Red Wings vs Hurricanes-4.6-1.2*+0.0+3.6+3.9+3.8
-0.4*-0.0*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Hurricanes vs Rangers+4.3+3.5+3.7*+0.3*+0.3-4.3
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.0+0.0-0.3
Hurricanes vs Stars+3.6+3.1+2.7*-1.1*-0.7-4.8
+0.3+0.2+0.2*-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Islanders vs Hurricanes-5.7*-0.9*-0.2+2.7+2.7+2.5
-0.4-0.1*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Hurricanes vs Blues+3.3+3.1+3.4*+0.8*-0.5-5.0
+0.2+0.3+0.3*+0.0*-0.0-0.4
Panthers vs Hurricanes-5.2*-1.1*-1.5+2.4+2.7+3.2
-0.4*-0.1*-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Hurricanes vs Canadiens+4.5+3.7+3.6*+1.1*+0.8-3.9
+0.4+0.3+0.3*+0.0*+0.0-0.3
Maple Leafs vs Hurricanes-5.4-1.6*+0.2+2.6+2.9+2.8
-0.4-0.1-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Ducks vs Hurricanes-4.0*+0.6*+0.4+4.2+4.2+4.0
-0.3*+0.0*-0.0+0.4+0.3+0.3
Predators vs Hurricanes-5.2*-1.1*-0.7+2.6+2.7+2.5
-0.4-0.1*-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Sabres vs Hurricanes-3.5*-0.4*+0.3+4.1+4.1+4.2
-0.3-0.0*+0.0+0.4+0.3+0.4

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Hurricanes finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
138450-0In1008
125364-5In25754*
124354-6In2550254*
123366-3In1471147*
122356-4In9642711*
121357-3In3653231*
120336-6In3534466*
119337-5In3466108*
118338-4In28711178*
117328-5In23760316*
116329-4In0227611465*
115319-5In148321710*
114309-6In1185310954*
1133010-5In7882301,305*
1122910-6In48735101,876*
1112911-5In38348202,421*
1102811-6In180310513,095*
1092812-5In1753128203,724*
1082712-6In06731412304,533*
1072612-7In06021318615,096*
1062613-699.9%0511122212205,712*
1052513-799.642192518506,277*
1042514-698.93407242510106,369*
1032414-797.22504213116306,790*
1022415-694.41802163424506,652*
1012315-788.712011132321116,474*
1002316-681.081727381726,017*
992216-770.950420422635,608*
982217-659.330215403555,111*
972117-744.8101934451004,352*
962118-633.810528511503,700*
952018-723.400221542202,988*
942019-616.100115533002,402*
931919-79.9009513811,937*
921920-66.306454721,375*
911820-73.503385441,035*
901821-61.3133596709*
891721-70.40256591561*
881722-60.512264121373*
871622-70.401657251251*
861623-6Out956314163*
851523-7Out760267100*
841524-6Out104741251*
831525-5Out425611128*
821324-8Out29591217*
811325-7Out7534015*
801427-4Out1338508*
791428-3Out33673*
781227-6Out1002*
48045-0Out1008
Total:78.3%013115101516156000100,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Lottery seed
Hurricanes 2 Lightning 3 +1.2
Hurricanes 1 Lightning 2 +1.2
Hurricanes 1 Avalanche 3 +1.2
Hurricanes 2 Senators 3 +1.2
Lightning 4 Hurricanes 3 +1.1
Hurricanes 3 Blue Jackets 4 +1.1
Canadiens 7 Hurricanes 2 +1.1
Canadiens 3 Hurricanes 2 +1.0
Kings 6 Hurricanes 2 +1.0
Flyers 6 Hurricanes 3 +1.0
Canucks 6 Hurricanes 5 +1.0
Oilers 3 Hurricanes 1 +1.0
Senators 5 Hurricanes 1 +1.0
Wild 3 Hurricanes 0 +1.0
Blue Jackets 6 Hurricanes 3 +1.0
Coyotes 5 Hurricanes 4 +1.0
Lightning 3 Hurricanes 5 -1.0
Flyers 1 Hurricanes 2 -1.0
Islanders 2 Hurricanes 4 -1.0
Senators 3 Hurricanes 5 -0.9
Devils 2 Hurricanes 4 -0.9
Bruins 4 Hurricanes 5 -0.9
Blackhawks 2 Hurricanes 4 -0.9
Flames 4 Hurricanes 5 (ot)-0.9
Hurricanes 4 Sabres 3 (so)-0.9
Sharks 3 Hurricanes 4 -0.9
Hurricanes 5 Capitals 3 -0.8
Hurricanes 4 Maple Leafs 1 -0.8
Hurricanes 3 Thrashers 2 -0.8
Hurricanes 5 Canadiens 2 -0.8
Hurricanes 5 Maple Leafs 0 -0.8
Hurricanes 6 Senators 1 -0.8
Hurricanes 2 Rangers 1 -0.8
Hurricanes 3 Penguins 2 -0.7
Hurricanes 7 Penguins 4 -0.7
Hurricanes 5 Ducks 4 (so)-0.7
Hurricanes 3 Sabres 2 -0.7
Hurricanes 3 Flyers 2 (so)-0.7
Hurricanes 4 Canucks 1 -0.7
Bruins 5 Blues 4 (so)+0.3
Blue Jackets 1 Canucks 2 (ot)*-0.2
Islanders 3 Canucks 2 (so)*+0.2
Capitals 2 Blackhawks 1 (ot)*+0.2
Canadiens 6 Penguins 5 (so)*-0.2
Blues 2 Sabres 3 (ot)+0.2
Thrashers 5 Canadiens 4 (so)-0.2
Capitals 4 Coyotes 5 (ot)-0.2
Thrashers 1 Wild 3 *-0.2
Blackhawks 1 Sharks 2 (ot)*+0.2
Islanders 5 Capitals 3 -0.1
Hurricanes 4 Oilers 5 (so)*+0.1
Stars 1 Capitals 2 (so)*-0.1
Canadiens 4 Panthers 2 -0.1
Maple Leafs 5 Lightning 1 -0.1
Stars 2 Thrashers 1 *-0.1
Blue Jackets 3 Devils 4 (ot)*-0.1
Ducks 2 Kings 0 *+0.0
Flames 3 Blackhawks 1 *-0.0
Maple Leafs 4 Hurricanes 3 (so)*+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thrashers vs Hurricanes+0.9+0.1*+0.1-0.7-0.7-0.9
Capitals vs Hurricanes+0.9+0.2*+0.2-0.7-0.7-0.9
Hurricanes vs Thrashers-0.8-0.5-0.5+0.3+0.3+1.0
Thrashers vs Hurricanes+0.8+0.2*+0.1-0.5-0.7-0.9
Hurricanes vs Capitals-0.7-0.5-0.5+0.5+0.3+1.0
Capitals vs Hurricanes+0.9+0.2+0.3-0.7-0.6-0.8
Hurricanes vs Islanders-0.4-0.3-0.5*+0.2+0.4+1.0
Hurricanes vs Flyers-0.6-0.5-0.6*+0.3*+0.2+0.9
Hurricanes vs Wild-0.6-0.6-0.7*+0.1*+0.1+0.7
Hurricanes vs Flames-0.4-0.5-0.5*+0.2+0.3+1.0
Bruins vs Hurricanes+0.9*+0.2+0.1-0.4-0.6-0.5
Blues vs Hurricanes+0.7+0.0-0.0-0.6-0.7-0.7
Penguins vs Hurricanes+0.7*+0.1+0.2-0.6-0.6-0.7
Hurricanes vs Kings-0.6-0.6-0.7*+0.1*+0.1+0.8
Penguins vs Hurricanes+0.7*-0.0*+0.1-0.6-0.7-0.7
Hurricanes vs Sharks-0.6-0.6-0.5*+0.1*+0.1+0.8
Hurricanes vs Bruins-0.4-0.4-0.5+0.2*+0.2+0.9
Red Wings vs Hurricanes+0.8*+0.1*+0.1-0.6-0.6-0.6
Rangers vs Hurricanes+0.6*-0.1-0.2-0.8-0.7-0.8
Stars vs Hurricanes+0.7*+0.0*+0.0-0.7-0.7-0.7
Hurricanes vs Red Wings-0.5-0.5-0.5+0.2+0.2+0.9
Ducks vs Hurricanes+0.6*-0.1*+0.0-0.8-0.6-0.7
Sabres vs Hurricanes+0.6*-0.0*-0.1-0.6-0.7-0.7
Panthers vs Hurricanes+0.8*+0.2*+0.2-0.5-0.5-0.5
Rangers vs Hurricanes+0.6*-0.1*+0.0-0.8-0.8-0.8
Hurricanes vs Panthers-0.4-0.3-0.4*+0.2+0.3+0.9
Hurricanes vs Predators-0.4-0.4-0.4+0.5+0.2+1.0
Devils vs Hurricanes+1.0+0.4*+0.3-0.3-0.4-0.4
Hurricanes vs Rangers-0.7-0.6-0.6*+0.0-0.0+0.7
Hurricanes vs Blackhawks-0.4-0.5-0.4*+0.1+0.3+0.9
Hurricanes vs Coyotes-0.4-0.4-0.5*+0.2+0.3+0.9
Panthers vs Hurricanes+0.8*+0.2*+0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5
Sabres vs Hurricanes+0.6+0.0*-0.0-0.7-0.7-0.7
Hurricanes vs Stars-0.6-0.4-0.5+0.2+0.1+0.8
Hurricanes vs Blues-0.5-0.5-0.6-0.0+0.1+0.8
Hurricanes vs Bruins-0.4-0.4-0.4+0.2+0.3+0.9
Hurricanes vs Panthers-0.4-0.4-0.4*+0.2+0.3+0.9
Avalanche vs Hurricanes+0.9+0.2+0.3-0.4-0.4-0.4
Hurricanes vs Canadiens-0.7-0.7-0.7*-0.1*-0.0+0.6
Hurricanes vs Devils-0.3-0.3*-0.3*+0.2+0.3+1.0
Hurricanes vs Devils-0.3-0.3-0.2*+0.2+0.4+1.0
Maple Leafs vs Hurricanes+0.8*+0.2*+0.1-0.3-0.4-0.5

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
138450-0100
125364-52575
124354-6255025
123366-3147114
122356-496427
121357-336532
120336-6348544
119337-530566
118338-4244711
117328-51677510
116329-401111752101
115319-577812101
114309-64779611100
1133010-52579911300
1122910-6137413124110
1112911-50364191353200
1102811-60157230365411
1092812-5014728035761200
1082712-60035320341093300
1072612-70263302211108601
1062613-6018331111913102200
1052513-71230109817135500
1042514-672700642015109010
1032414-7421004219161515130
1022415-621602115122221450
1012315-7111010118242481110
1002316-60810742325131720
992216-7050421923192440
982217-63021141624301010
972117-70101091023351730
962118-610055233425710
952018-7000221831321220
942019-6001114233420610
931919-700091535251130
921920-6006829331941
911820-70342034261020
901821-6111233321640
891721-7016233425101
881722-614153529142
871622-7011029321882
861623-614133528172
851523-71152337186
841524-6422312716
831525-54113239411
821324-8122435246
811325-777332727
801427-45050
791529-1333333
781227-65050
48045-0100
Total:000015150114376997106321000000