How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Panthers 1 Capitals 2 -6.1
-0.6
Panthers 1 Lightning 5 -5.9
-0.6
Panthers 1 Senators 3 -5.6
-0.6
Panthers 0 Canadiens 3 -5.6
-0.6
Panthers 3 Blackhawks 7 -5.5
-0.6
Capitals 4 Panthers 1 -5.3
-0.6
Panthers 4 Predators 6 -5.3
-0.6
Lightning 3 Panthers 0 -5.1
-0.5
Thrashers 7 Panthers 5 -5.1
-0.5
Penguins 2 Panthers 0 -5.0
-0.5
Maple Leafs 3 Panthers 2 -5.0
-0.5
Avalanche 5 Panthers 4 -5.0
-0.5
Ducks 4 Panthers 1 -5.0
-0.5
Thrashers 5 Panthers 3 -5.0
-0.5
Canadiens 4 Panthers 2 -4.9
-0.5
Kings 3 Panthers 1 -4.9
-0.5
Flyers 4 Panthers 1 -4.9
-0.5
Sabres 4 Panthers 0 -4.8
-0.5
Senators 5 Panthers 3 -4.8
-0.5
Blue Jackets 3 Panthers 1 -4.8
-0.5
Oilers 5 Panthers 3 -4.7
-0.5
Coyotes 2 Panthers 1 -4.7
-0.5
Stars 7 Panthers 3 -4.6
-0.5
Predators 3 Panthers 1 -4.5
-0.5
Devils 2 Panthers 4 +4.2
+0.4
Sharks 1 Panthers 2 +4.1
+0.4
Panthers 6 Kings 4 +4.0
+0.4
Panthers 4 Islanders 3 +3.9
+0.4
Panthers 5 Rangers 2 +3.8
+0.4
Panthers 3 Devils 1 +3.8
+0.4
Panthers 6 Coyotes 0 +3.7
+0.4
Panthers 4 Devils 1 +3.7
+0.4
Panthers 2 Blue Jackets 1 +3.6
+0.4
Panthers 2 Islanders 1 +3.6
+0.4
Panthers 3 Sharks 2 (ot)+3.6
+0.4
Panthers 2 Penguins 1 +3.3
+0.4
Panthers 4 Ducks 1 +3.3
+0.4
Panthers 2 Flames 1 +3.2
+0.3
Panthers 4 Oilers 2 +3.2
+0.3
Panthers 3 Stars 2 +3.1
+0.3
Red Wings 3 Coyotes 2 (so)-2.1
Capitals 5 Panthers 4 (so)*-0.9
*-0.1
Rangers 3 Flames 2 (so)*-0.9
Oilers 3 Hurricanes 1 +0.8
Blackhawks 1 Penguins 0 *+0.6
Blue Jackets 3 Rangers 5 *-0.6
Sharks 2 Lightning 1 (so)*+0.6
Canadiens 3 Blackhawks 0 *-0.6
Canucks 3 Lightning 6 *-0.6
-0.1
Lightning 2 Canucks 3 *+0.5
+0.1
Kings 5 Bruins 2 *+0.5
Bruins 3 Flyers 8 *-0.4
Islanders 2 Thrashers 1 *+0.4
Oilers 4 Red Wings 1 *-0.3
Capitals 5 Red Wings 1 *-0.3
Canucks 4 Kings 1 *-0.2
Ducks 5 Senators 4 *+0.2
Thrashers 3 Flames 4 (ot)*-0.2
*-0.0
Rangers 2 Flyers 3 *+0.2
Wild 3 Capitals 2 +0.1
Rangers 6 Lightning 1 +0.0
Avalanche 3 Capitals 4 -0.0
Capitals 2 Canucks 1 -0.0
Coyotes 4 Penguins 5 (ot)-0.0
Hurricanes 4 Maple Leafs 1 -0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Panthers vs Canadiens+0.1*-0.0+0.3*-0.0*-0.0-0.0
+0.1+0.1+0.2*+0.0+0.0-0.1
Hurricanes vs Panthers-0.1*-0.0*+0.0+0.2*+0.0+0.1
-0.1*+0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Blues vs Panthers-0.1*-0.0*+0.0+0.2*+0.1+0.1
-0.1*+0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Flyers vs Panthers-0.1*-0.0*-0.0*-0.0*-0.0+0.1
-0.1*+0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Rangers vs Panthers-0.0*+0.0*-0.1*+0.1*+0.1+0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.2+0.1
Panthers vs Penguins+0.1*+0.1*+0.0*+0.1*-0.0-0.1
+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Islanders vs Panthers-0.1-0.1*+0.0*+0.1*+0.1+0.1
-0.1-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Panthers vs Thrashers+0.1*+0.1*-0.0*-0.1*-0.0-0.1
+0.1+0.1+0.1*+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Wild vs Panthers-0.1*-0.0*+0.1*+0.1*+0.1+0.1
-0.1+0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.2+0.1
Lightning vs Panthers-0.0*-0.0*-0.0*-0.0*-0.0+0.1
-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Hurricanes vs Panthers-0.1*-0.0*-0.0*-0.0*+0.1+0.1
-0.1*+0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Penguins vs Panthers-0.1*-0.0*+0.0*-0.1*+0.1+0.1
-0.1*-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Panthers vs Wild+0.1*+0.0*+0.1*-0.1*-0.0-0.1
+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Islanders vs Panthers-0.1*-0.1*-0.1*+0.0*+0.1+0.1
-0.2*-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Panthers vs Flyers+0.1*+0.0*+0.1*+0.0*-0.0-0.1
+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0*-0.0-0.1
Panthers vs Flyers+0.1*+0.1*+0.1*+0.0*-0.0-0.1
+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Panthers vs Sabres+0.1*+0.0*-0.0*-0.0*-0.0-0.0
+0.1+0.1+0.1*+0.0+0.0-0.1
Panthers vs Red Wings+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0*+0.0-0.1
Red Wings vs Panthers-0.1*-0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Maple Leafs vs Panthers-0.2-0.0-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.2
Blackhawks vs Panthers-0.1*-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Bruins vs Panthers-0.2-0.1-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.2
Panthers vs Bruins+0.2+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.2
Canucks vs Panthers-0.1*-0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Panthers vs Lightning+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Bruins vs Panthers-0.2-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.2
Devils vs Panthers-0.2*-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Panthers vs Bruins+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.1-0.2
Panthers vs Capitals+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0*-0.0-0.1
Panthers vs Hurricanes+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0*-0.0-0.1
Panthers vs Hurricanes+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0*+0.0-0.1
Panthers vs Maple Leafs+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.2
Rangers vs Panthers-0.1+0.0*+0.0+0.2+0.1+0.2
Sabres vs Panthers-0.1*+0.0*-0.0+0.2+0.1+0.1
Panthers vs Maple Leafs+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.2
Panthers vs Canucks+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0*-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Panthers finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
123450-0In13888
104326-7In1001
103316-8In1001
101329-450.0%50504*
100319-542.9291443147*
99298-835.36121859617*
98299-740.74374111727*
97289-826.4264526253*
962810-715.9163741682*
952811-68.79304317138*
942711-77.78235317222*
932611-82.102155132336*
922612-71.111051380525*
912512-80.40643491739*
902513-7Out3405621,037*
892413-80.1023360401,396*
882414-7Out1266761,879*
872314-8Out019711002,373*
862214-9Out015711403,144*
852215-8Out9741703,569*
842216-7Out7692314,207*
832116-8Out4643025,006*
822117-7Out2573735,458*
812017-8Out1494555,926*
802018-7Out14150806,468*
791918-8Out036541006,402*
781919-7Out026581606,592*
771819-8Out019592206,551*
761820-7Out014562906,220*
751720-8Out9543615,764*
741721-7Out6494325,037*
731621-8Out4425134,456*
721622-7Out23558503,691*
711522-8Out12864703,066*
701523-7Out020681102,503*
691423-8Out015661701,928*
681424-7Out010692001,509*
671324-8Out7652711,143*
661325-7Out458353856*
651326-6Out249455542*
641226-7Out142488417*
631126-8Out138556285*
621127-7Out305416171*
611027-8Out27561794*
601028-7Out15642059*
591029-6Out16444045*
581030-5Out12474117*
57728-10Out9365511*
56931-5Out1004*
55629-10Out50504*
33-54Out10010*
Total:0.1%00000000432372330100,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Lottery seed
Panthers 1 Capitals 2 +1.3
Panthers 1 Lightning 5 +1.3
Panthers 3 Blackhawks 7 +1.2
Panthers 0 Canadiens 3 +1.2
Panthers 1 Senators 3 +1.2
Panthers 4 Predators 6 +1.2
Capitals 4 Panthers 1 +1.1
Lightning 3 Panthers 0 +1.1
Thrashers 7 Panthers 5 +1.1
Thrashers 5 Panthers 3 +1.1
Penguins 2 Panthers 0 +1.1
Maple Leafs 3 Panthers 2 +1.1
Ducks 4 Panthers 1 +1.1
Kings 3 Panthers 1 +1.0
Avalanche 5 Panthers 4 +1.0
Canadiens 4 Panthers 2 +1.0
Sabres 4 Panthers 0 +1.0
Coyotes 2 Panthers 1 +1.0
Flyers 4 Panthers 1 +1.0
Blue Jackets 3 Panthers 1 +1.0
Senators 5 Panthers 3 +1.0
Stars 7 Panthers 3 +1.0
Oilers 5 Panthers 3 +1.0
Predators 3 Panthers 1 +1.0
Sharks 1 Panthers 2 -0.9
Devils 2 Panthers 4 -0.9
Panthers 6 Kings 4 -0.8
Panthers 4 Islanders 3 -0.8
Panthers 5 Rangers 2 -0.8
Panthers 3 Devils 1 -0.8
Panthers 2 Blue Jackets 1 -0.8
Panthers 3 Sharks 2 (ot)-0.8
Panthers 6 Coyotes 0 -0.8
Panthers 4 Ducks 1 -0.7
Panthers 4 Devils 1 -0.7
Panthers 2 Islanders 1 -0.7
Panthers 2 Penguins 1 -0.7
Panthers 2 Flames 1 -0.7
Panthers 4 Oilers 2 -0.7
Panthers 3 Stars 2 -0.7
Red Wings 3 Coyotes 2 (so)+0.4
Kings 3 Blues 4 (so)*-0.2
Flames 2 Ducks 3 (so)+0.2
Blues 2 Sabres 3 (ot)*+0.2
Hurricanes 4 Oilers 5 (so)*-0.2
Hurricanes 4 Sabres 3 (so)*+0.2
Stars 2 Flames 3 (so)*+0.2
Avalanche 3 Blue Jackets 4 (so)*-0.2
Flames 4 Hurricanes 5 (ot)*+0.2
Red Wings 3 Oilers 4 (so)*+0.2
Islanders 4 Sabres 5 (ot)*+0.2
Oilers 3 Hurricanes 1 -0.2
Lightning 2 Sabres 3 (so)*-0.2
Capitals 0 Penguins 1 -0.1
Wild 3 Capitals 2 -0.1
Capitals 5 Panthers 4 (so)*+0.1
Blue Jackets 6 Hurricanes 3 -0.1
Lightning 2 Canucks 3 -0.1
Capitals 2 Canucks 1 *+0.1
Predators 5 Stars 6 *+0.0
Avalanche 3 Capitals 4 +0.0
Blackhawks 2 Rangers 3 *+0.0
Capitals 5 Red Wings 1 +0.0
Lightning 3 Senators 1 *-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Panthers vs Bruins-0.3-0.3-0.2+0.1+0.1+0.5
Panthers vs Canadiens-0.4-0.4-0.5*-0.1-0.1+0.2
Canucks vs Panthers+0.4*+0.0+0.1-0.3-0.3-0.4
Bruins vs Panthers+0.4*+0.1*+0.1-0.3-0.3-0.4
Bruins vs Panthers+0.4*+0.1*+0.0-0.3-0.3-0.4
Panthers vs Canucks-0.3-0.3-0.2+0.2+0.1+0.4
Panthers vs Maple Leafs-0.3-0.2-0.2*+0.1+0.1+0.4
Panthers vs Maple Leafs-0.3-0.2-0.2+0.1+0.1+0.4
Maple Leafs vs Panthers+0.4+0.1+0.1-0.3-0.3-0.3
Rangers vs Panthers+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.4-0.5-0.4
Lightning vs Panthers+0.3*+0.0*+0.0-0.3-0.3-0.4
Panthers vs Bruins-0.3-0.3-0.2+0.1+0.1+0.4
Penguins vs Panthers+0.3*-0.0+0.0-0.4-0.4-0.3
Blackhawks vs Panthers+0.3+0.1*-0.0-0.3-0.3-0.4
Flames vs Panthers+0.3*+0.0*+0.0-0.3-0.3-0.3
Hurricanes vs Panthers+0.3*+0.0*-0.0-0.4-0.3-0.3
Islanders vs Panthers+0.4+0.1*+0.1-0.3-0.2-0.3
Sabres vs Panthers+0.2-0.1*-0.0-0.4-0.4-0.4
Islanders vs Panthers+0.4*+0.0*+0.0-0.2-0.2-0.3
Panthers vs Avalanche-0.2-0.2-0.2+0.1+0.1+0.4
Rangers vs Panthers+0.2*-0.1*-0.1-0.4-0.3-0.4
Panthers vs Thrashers-0.3-0.3-0.3*-0.0*+0.0+0.3
Devils vs Panthers+0.4*+0.1*+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2
Blues vs Panthers+0.3*-0.0*-0.0-0.4-0.4-0.3
Hurricanes vs Panthers+0.3*-0.0*-0.0-0.4-0.4-0.3
Panthers vs Flyers-0.3-0.3-0.3*-0.0*-0.0+0.3
Senators vs Panthers+0.3*-0.0*-0.0-0.4-0.3-0.3
Canadiens vs Panthers+0.2-0.1*-0.1-0.4-0.4-0.4
Panthers vs Rangers-0.4-0.4-0.3*-0.0-0.0+0.3
Flyers vs Panthers+0.3*-0.0-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.4
Panthers vs Lightning-0.3-0.2-0.2*+0.1*+0.1+0.3
Panthers vs Flyers-0.3-0.3-0.3+0.0*+0.0+0.3
Panthers vs Wild-0.3-0.4-0.3*-0.1*+0.0+0.3
Red Wings vs Panthers+0.3*+0.0*-0.0-0.3-0.3-0.3
Panthers vs Hurricanes-0.3-0.3-0.3+0.0*+0.0+0.3
Panthers vs Senators-0.3-0.3-0.3*-0.0*+0.0+0.3
Wild vs Panthers+0.2*-0.1-0.1-0.4-0.4-0.4

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
123450-01388
104326-7100
103316-8100
101329-45050
100319-529144314
99298-86121265312
98299-74191937157
97289-881930386
962810-721323382111
952811-645192932111
942711-717123227183
932611-802527372351
922612-7121934281310
912512-8011025362341
902513-742034291111
892413-8021229331950
882414-716223528810
872314-800313303516300
862214-9017243623810
852215-80031535321320
842216-702928362040
832116-8004203728910
822117-7021332341520
812017-801625412250
802018-703183732910
791918-801123438132
781919-701627402240
771819-800318413070
761820-701123738121
751720-80731411920
741721-70423442530
731621-80217413460
721622-701103643100
711522-80063146151
701523-70323502220
691423-8216473050
681424-7111463670
671324-8064042121
661325-7023046201
651326-622144303
641226-711544356
631126-81144405
621127-78334513
611027-87295014
601028-72245817
591029-62184040
58929-7185329
57829-8183645
56931-52575
55629-105050
33-54100
Total:0000000000112481216191712510