How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Oilers 1 Ducks 6 -6.3
-0.6
Oilers 1 Sharks 5 -6.0
-0.6
Oilers 2 Blue Jackets 5 -5.9
-0.6
Oilers 2 Kings 3 -5.6
-0.6
Oilers 2 Coyotes 4 -5.6
-0.6
Flames 4 Oilers 3 -5.6
-0.6
Oilers 2 Senators 3 -5.5
-0.6
Oilers 4 Maple Leafs 5 -5.5
-0.6
Panthers 4 Oilers 2 -4.9
-0.5
Oilers 2 Canadiens 4 -4.9
-0.5
Thrashers 5 Oilers 3 -4.9
-0.5
Blues 1 Oilers 2 +4.8
+0.5
Sharks 1 Oilers 4 +4.8
+0.5
Hurricanes 4 Oilers 5 (so)+4.7
+0.5
Flames 2 Oilers 4 +4.7
+0.5
Flyers 0 Oilers 5 +4.5
+0.5
Bruins 5 Oilers 1 -4.5
-0.5
Devils 1 Oilers 3 +4.4
+0.5
Red Wings 4 Oilers 6 +4.3
+0.5
Oilers 6 Predators 2 +4.1
+0.4
Oilers 2 Blues 0 +3.9
+0.4
Oilers 4 Red Wings 1 +3.9
+0.4
Lightning 0 Oilers 4 +3.9
+0.4
Sabres 0 Oilers 2 +3.8
+0.4
Oilers 3 Islanders 1 +3.6
+0.4
Oilers 7 Blackhawks 2 +3.6
+0.3
Oilers 4 Thrashers 3 +3.6
+0.4
Oilers 3 Stars 1 +3.5
+0.4
Red Wings 3 Oilers 4 (so)+3.4
+0.3
Oilers 3 Flames 2 (so)+3.3
+0.4
Oilers 3 Hurricanes 1 +3.2
+0.3
Oilers 4 Rangers 1 +3.1
+0.4
Oilers 5 Panthers 3 +2.9
+0.3
Oilers 5 Red Wings 4 (so)+2.9
+0.3
Oilers 4 Lightning 3 (so)+2.1
+0.3
Blue Jackets 5 Flyers 6 +1.1
+0.1
Canucks 3 Lightning 6 +1.1
Canadiens 1 Kings 2 -1.0
Penguins 6 Stars 1 +0.9
Bruins 3 Red Wings 4 -0.8
Canadiens 3 Blackhawks 0 +0.8
Stars 3 Bruins 2 -0.8
Avalanche 4 Islanders 0 -0.7
-0.1
Rangers 5 Predators 2 *+0.6
Sharks 6 Oilers 5 (so)*-0.6
*-0.1
Sharks 1 Canucks 3 *+0.5
Flyers 4 Wild 5 (ot)*-0.5
*-0.0
Coyotes 5 Sabres 4 *-0.4
Thrashers 3 Flames 4 (ot)*-0.4
Kings 3 Panthers 1 *-0.4
Wild 3 Canucks 0 *+0.4
Flyers 5 Penguins 3 *+0.3
Penguins 3 Red Wings 1 *+0.3
Panthers 3 Stars 2 *+0.3
Coyotes 2 Rangers 1 *-0.3
*-0.0
Thrashers 4 Blackhawks 1 *+0.3
Stars 2 Thrashers 1 *-0.1
Flames 2 Blues 5 +0.0
Flames 2 Ducks 3 (so)*-0.2
Capitals 2 Wild 3 (so)*-0.1
Canucks 1 Flyers 5 +0.1
Bruins 1 Wild 7 -0.1
Rangers 5 Wild 3 +0.1
Wild 3 Hurricanes 0 -0.1
Blue Jackets 5 Avalanche 3 +0.0
Avalanche 2 Kings 6 +0.0
Wild 5 Red Wings 1 +0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Oilers vs Flames+0.5+0.4*+0.5*+0.4*-0.0-1.4
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.1-0.1-0.4
Blue Jackets vs Oilers-1.0*-0.3*-0.2+0.9+0.5+0.6
-0.3*-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.2+0.2
Islanders vs Oilers-1.0*-0.2*-0.1+0.8*+0.3+0.4
-0.4-0.1-0.2+0.2+0.2+0.1
Blue Jackets vs Oilers-1.0*-0.3-0.8*+0.5+0.5+0.8
-0.3*-0.0-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Blackhawks vs Oilers-1.0*-0.2*-0.2+0.7+0.5+0.6
-0.3-0.1*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Oilers vs Penguins+0.4+0.6+0.7*+0.0*+0.2-1.0
+0.2+0.2+0.3*-0.1-0.1-0.3
Avalanche vs Oilers-1.1*-0.4*-0.1*+0.5+0.6+0.4
-0.4-0.2*-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Oilers vs Blackhawks+0.6+0.4*+0.5*-0.3-0.5-1.2
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.1-0.1-0.4
Ducks vs Oilers-0.8*+0.2*+0.1+0.9+0.5+0.7
-0.3-0.0*-0.0+0.3+0.2+0.3
Oilers vs Predators+0.4+0.4*+0.5*-0.3*-0.2-1.2
+0.1+0.1+0.2-0.2*-0.1-0.4
Oilers vs Capitals+0.6+0.4*+0.3*-0.2*-0.1-1.1
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.0-0.1-0.4
Coyotes vs Oilers-1.0*-0.0*+0.0+0.6+0.6+0.5
-0.4*-0.1-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Oilers vs Canucks+0.5+0.3+0.5*-0.4*-0.3-1.1
+0.1+0.2+0.2*-0.1-0.1-0.4
Oilers vs Wild+0.5+0.7*+0.4*-0.3*+0.1-0.9
+0.4+0.3+0.2-0.2-0.1-0.4
Canucks vs Oilers-1.0*-0.0*-0.3*+0.3+0.5+0.5
-0.3-0.1*-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Oilers vs Wild+0.6+0.7*+0.5*+0.2*-0.2-0.8
+0.4+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.2-0.4
Kings vs Oilers-0.7*-0.1*+0.0+0.8+0.6+0.7
-0.3-0.0-0.0+0.3+0.2+0.3
Oilers vs Bruins+0.4*+0.3*+0.5-0.8*-0.2-1.1
+0.2+0.2*+0.1-0.2*-0.1-0.4
Avalanche vs Oilers-1.0*-0.3*-0.2*+0.4+0.5+0.4
-0.4-0.1*-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Oilers vs Ducks+0.4+0.7*+0.5*+0.1*+0.1-0.8
+0.3+0.2+0.2-0.0-0.1-0.4
Wild vs Oilers-0.6*-0.1*-0.3+0.9+0.5+0.7
-0.3-0.1-0.2+0.3+0.3+0.4
Coyotes vs Oilers-0.9*-0.1*-0.3*+0.3*+0.3+0.6
-0.4*-0.1*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Capitals vs Oilers-0.8*+0.2*+0.2*+0.4+0.7+0.5
-0.3*-0.0*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Oilers vs Sharks+0.5+0.6*+0.5*+0.2*-0.2-0.8
+0.3+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.4
Oilers vs Sabres+0.5+0.7*+0.2*-0.2*+0.2-0.8
+0.2+0.2+0.2*+0.0*-0.0-0.3
Wild vs Oilers-0.7*+0.2*+0.1+0.7+0.5+0.7
-0.4-0.1-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.4
Oilers vs Stars+0.6+0.5*+0.1*-0.1*-0.1-0.9
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.1-0.1-0.4
Stars vs Oilers-0.7*+0.1*-0.3*+0.6+0.5+0.7
-0.3-0.0*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Penguins vs Oilers-0.8*+0.3*-0.2*+0.1+0.6+0.6
-0.3*-0.0*-0.1+0.2+0.3+0.2
Stars vs Oilers-0.8*+0.1*+0.1*+0.3+0.6+0.6
-0.3*-0.0*-0.0+0.2+0.3+0.3
Canadiens vs Oilers-0.6+0.3*-0.0+0.8*+0.4+0.7
-0.2+0.1*+0.0+0.3+0.4+0.3
Ducks vs Oilers-0.7*+0.1*+0.2*+0.1+0.6+0.6
-0.3*-0.0-0.1+0.2+0.3+0.3
Kings vs Oilers-0.6*+0.0*-0.1*+0.2+0.6+0.7
-0.3*-0.0*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Oilers vs Kings+0.5+0.6*+0.5*-0.3*-0.1-0.7
+0.3+0.2+0.2*-0.1-0.1-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Oilers finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
129-147In10088*
128387-5In96457*
127377-6In991108*
126378-5In9631151*
125368-6In9362270*
124369-5In8984388*
123359-6In84115575*
1223510-5In771580853*
1213410-6In69191201,201*
1203411-5In5726017101,645*
1193311-6In493001912,102*
1183211-7In3737124202,711*
1173212-6In2641129303,237*
1163112-7In18412326003,858*
1153113-6In113843511104,603*
1143013-7In63553517305,061*
1133014-6In33163223505,591*
1122914-7In124627301016,012*
1112915-6In119721351526,330*
1102815-7In0147163723406,317*
1092816-6In0107113630606,195*
1082716-7In067632371106,103*
1072717-6In45425431805,823*
1062617-7In24219462515,334*
1052618-6In23113423634,875*
1042518-7100.0%13093843604,065*
1032519-699.5020533491013,544*
1022419-798.6010324541612,948*
1012420-697.70101185423202,479*
1002320-794.701115132501,987*
992321-690.9000646399001,553*
982221-783.800433461511,141*
972222-674.3225472230829*
962122-763.1021423160605*
952123-651.10133837111413*
942023-739.50831381840319*
932024-629.2128382661233*
921924-711.3110354383141*
911925-68.08244719288*
901825-79.810283620761*
891725-82.427452617242*
881726-7Out4333141021*
871727-6Out35412417*
861627-7Out33673*
851628-6Out202040205*
841629-5Out33673*
831428-8Out67333*
821530-5Out1003*
801229-9Out1001
47050-0Out1008
Total:98.1%9164141719155100000100,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Lottery seed
Oilers 1 Ducks 6 +1.3
Oilers 1 Sharks 5 +1.2
Oilers 2 Blue Jackets 5 +1.2
Oilers 2 Kings 3 +1.2
Oilers 2 Senators 3 +1.2
Flames 4 Oilers 3 +1.2
Oilers 4 Maple Leafs 5 +1.1
Oilers 2 Coyotes 4 +1.1
Oilers 2 Canadiens 4 +1.1
Panthers 4 Oilers 2 +1.0
Thrashers 5 Oilers 3 +1.0
Flames 2 Oilers 4 -1.0
Bruins 5 Oilers 1 +1.0
Sharks 1 Oilers 4 -1.0
Hurricanes 4 Oilers 5 (so)-1.0
Flyers 0 Oilers 5 -1.0
Devils 1 Oilers 3 -0.9
Blues 1 Oilers 2 -0.9
Red Wings 4 Oilers 6 -0.9
Sabres 0 Oilers 2 -0.9
Lightning 0 Oilers 4 -0.8
Oilers 6 Predators 2 -0.8
Oilers 2 Blues 0 -0.8
Oilers 4 Red Wings 1 -0.8
Oilers 4 Thrashers 3 -0.8
Oilers 4 Rangers 1 -0.8
Oilers 3 Islanders 1 -0.7
Oilers 3 Flames 2 (so)-0.7
Red Wings 3 Oilers 4 (so)-0.7
Oilers 7 Blackhawks 2 -0.7
Oilers 3 Stars 1 -0.7
Oilers 3 Hurricanes 1 -0.7
Oilers 5 Red Wings 4 (so)-0.7
Oilers 5 Panthers 3 -0.7
Oilers 4 Lightning 3 (so)-0.6
Flames 2 Ducks 3 (so)*+0.4
Lightning 2 Sabres 3 (so)*+0.2
Capitals 2 Stars 1 (so)+0.2
Bruins 5 Blues 4 (so)*-0.2
Capitals 2 Wild 3 (so)*+0.2
Rangers 3 Flames 2 (so)*-0.2
Capitals 5 Panthers 4 (so)*-0.2
Red Wings 3 Coyotes 2 (so)*+0.2
Sharks 6 Oilers 5 (so)*+0.2
Blue Jackets 5 Flyers 6 -0.2
Canucks 3 Lightning 6 -0.2
Flames 1 Blackhawks 2 -0.1
Canucks 4 Sabres 1 +0.1
Flames 2 Capitals 3 -0.1
Wild 3 Hurricanes 0 +0.1
Sharks 1 Canucks 3 *-0.1
Canucks 0 Predators 1 -0.0
Canucks 5 Predators 2 +0.0
Penguins 3 Blues 4 *+0.0
Panthers 2 Penguins 1 *+0.0
Flyers 4 Thrashers 3 *-0.0
Flyers 4 Blue Jackets 3 +0.0
Lightning 3 Flyers 4 *-0.0
Stars 2 Thrashers 1 *-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wild vs Oilers+0.7+0.1+0.2-0.6-0.6-0.9
Oilers vs Wild-0.7-0.5-0.4+0.3+0.3+0.8
Oilers vs Wild-0.7-0.5-0.4+0.4+0.3+0.8
Wild vs Oilers+0.7+0.2+0.3-0.7-0.5-0.8
Oilers vs Sharks-0.5-0.5-0.4+0.2+0.2+0.7
Kings vs Oilers+0.6+0.1+0.1-0.6-0.4-0.6
Oilers vs Penguins-0.4-0.4-0.5+0.2+0.2+0.7
Ducks vs Oilers+0.6+0.1*+0.0-0.6-0.5-0.6
Oilers vs Stars-0.5-0.4-0.4+0.1+0.1+0.7
Stars vs Oilers+0.6+0.0*+0.0-0.4-0.5-0.5
Oilers vs Kings-0.5-0.4-0.4+0.1+0.1+0.7
Blue Jackets vs Oilers+0.7+0.1+0.1-0.5-0.4-0.4
Avalanche vs Oilers+0.7+0.3*+0.1-0.4-0.3-0.3
Oilers vs Ducks-0.5-0.4-0.5+0.1+0.1+0.7
Islanders vs Oilers+0.8+0.2+0.4-0.4-0.3-0.3
Canadiens vs Oilers+0.5*-0.1*-0.0-0.7-0.7-0.6
Kings vs Oilers+0.6*+0.0*+0.1-0.5-0.5-0.6
Stars vs Oilers+0.6+0.1*+0.1-0.5-0.5-0.5
Ducks vs Oilers+0.6*+0.0+0.1-0.4-0.5-0.6
Coyotes vs Oilers+0.7+0.2+0.0-0.4-0.4-0.4
Oilers vs Capitals-0.4-0.4-0.3*+0.1+0.2+0.7
Oilers vs Flames-0.3-0.4-0.3*+0.2+0.2+0.8
Penguins vs Oilers+0.6*+0.0+0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5
Capitals vs Oilers+0.6*+0.0*+0.1-0.4-0.5-0.5
Blue Jackets vs Oilers+0.7*+0.1+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.4
Oilers vs Bruins-0.3-0.3*-0.3+0.3*+0.2+0.8
Oilers vs Predators-0.3-0.2-0.3+0.3*+0.2+0.8
Oilers vs Blackhawks-0.4-0.3*-0.3+0.2+0.3+0.8
Oilers vs Sabres-0.4-0.5-0.4*+0.0+0.0+0.6
Canucks vs Oilers+0.7+0.2*+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.3
Blackhawks vs Oilers+0.7+0.2+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.4
Coyotes vs Oilers+0.7*+0.2*+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.4
Oilers vs Canucks-0.3-0.3-0.3*+0.1+0.2+0.8
Avalanche vs Oilers+0.7+0.2*+0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3
Oilers vs Blue Jackets-0.4-0.3*-0.2*+0.1*+0.2+0.7
Oilers vs Avalanche-0.2-0.3-0.2*+0.1+0.3+0.8
Maple Leafs vs Oilers+0.7*+0.2*+0.1-0.3-0.3-0.3
Oilers vs Coyotes-0.3-0.3-0.3+0.2+0.2+0.7
Canucks vs Oilers+0.7+0.2*+0.0-0.4-0.4-0.4
Oilers vs Canucks-0.3-0.3*-0.2*+0.2*+0.2+0.8
Oilers vs Devils-0.2-0.2-0.2+0.3+0.3+0.8
Rangers vs Oilers+0.5*-0.0*+0.0-0.5-0.6-0.6

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
147500-0100
133415-47525
132405-54060
131406-44456
130396-54159
129386-62773
128387-528684
127377-628711
126378-51779211
125368-61181412
124369-5782614
123359-6579735
1223510-537496700
1213410-61671091110
1203411-51561115015110
1193311-6049112001631
1183211-70371027119420
1173212-626932121830
1163112-7186352021106000
1153113-61143440191611010
1143013-76232401718161300
1133014-6322950122021250
1122914-71124518192641001
1112915-61019614172781502
1102815-7001452214261122140
1092816-60010431102115282600
1082716-706330614183251100
1072717-64230481833101710
1062617-7222241529172321
1052618-62121211212131530
1042518-711200913253211600
1032519-60020057253019911
1022419-700103321252914210
1012420-600101117173717720
1002320-7010111041171541
992321-6000064411523720
982221-7000413213331141
972222-62025740131020
962122-7021537141661
952123-60132351421113
942023-7082296291952
932024-6128720291220
921924-7110323352161
911925-68110392814
901926-510112134203
891725-825262126172
881726-71429291910
871727-6121853126
861627-7333333
851628-620402020
841629-53367
831428-8333333
821429-76733
801229-9100
47050-0100
Total:08214316811713696221100000000