How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Wild 4 Coyotes 5 -6.2
-0.6
Wild 0 Coyotes 3 -5.5
-0.5
Wild 1 Blackhawks 3 -5.5
-0.6
Wild 4 Ducks 5 -5.5
-0.6
Wild 3 Stars 4 -5.4
-0.6
Wild 3 Blues 5 -5.4
-0.6
Ducks 5 Wild 3 -5.1
-0.5
Blues 4 Wild 1 -5.0
-0.5
Predators 3 Wild 2 -4.8
-0.5
Islanders 3 Wild 2 -4.8
-0.5
Lightning 4 Wild 3 -4.8
-0.5
Rangers 5 Wild 3 -4.7
-0.5
Predators 3 Wild 5 +4.5
+0.5
Stars 2 Wild 4 +4.5
+0.5
Capitals 2 Wild 3 (so)+4.5
+0.4
Sharks 3 Wild 4 +4.3
+0.5
Thrashers 1 Wild 3 +4.2
+0.4
Penguins 2 Wild 4 +4.2
+0.4
Wild 3 Stars 2 +3.9
+0.4
Wild 4 Canucks 3 +3.9
+0.4
Wild 5 Avalanche 3 +3.8
+0.4
Senators 1 Wild 4 +3.8
+0.4
Canadiens 1 Wild 4 +3.8
+0.4
Bruins 1 Wild 7 +3.8
+0.4
Devils 1 Wild 2 +3.8
+0.4
Wild 5 Red Wings 1 +3.7
+0.4
Wild 7 Blue Jackets 3 +3.7
+0.4
Wild 4 Sharks 3 +3.6
+0.4
Flyers 4 Wild 5 (ot)+3.5
+0.4
Wild 4 Flames 2 +3.5
+0.4
Wild 3 Blues 2 (ot)+3.4
+0.4
Wild 3 Canucks 0 +3.4
+0.4
Wild 3 Islanders 2 +3.4
+0.4
Wild 3 Hurricanes 0 +3.3
+0.3
Wild 3 Capitals 2 +3.3
+0.3
Wild 2 Penguins 1 +3.2
+0.3
Wild 3 Devils 1 +2.9
+0.3
Hurricanes 4 Sabres 3 (so)+2.1
Blue Jackets 5 Islanders 4 (so)-2.1
Red Wings 1 Canadiens 3 +0.9
Oilers 4 Maple Leafs 5 +0.9
+0.1
Panthers 2 Blue Jackets 1 +0.8
Oilers 2 Canadiens 4 +0.8
Rangers 3 Sharks 2 +0.7
Blue Jackets 3 Maple Leafs 0 *-0.7
Hurricanes 1 Avalanche 3 *-0.7
Rangers 2 Red Wings 1 *+0.7
Stars 2 Thrashers 1 *-0.5
*-0.0
Flyers 2 Ducks 1 (ot)*+0.5
Blackhawks 8 Wild 7 (so)*-0.5
*-0.1
Islanders 4 Red Wings 5 *-0.5
Kings 3 Panthers 1 *-0.4
Bruins 2 Devils 3 *+0.4
Blackhawks 3 Ducks 1 *+0.3
Flames 3 Senators 2 *-0.3
Sharks 0 Capitals 1 *+0.3
Blues 4 Lightning 3 (ot)*-0.3
Maple Leafs 6 Bruins 0 *+0.2
Panthers 2 Penguins 1 *+0.2
Bruins 3 Canadiens 4 *+0.2
Flyers 2 Thrashers 0 *-0.2
Predators 2 Ducks 3 *+0.2
Thrashers 3 Flames 4 (ot)-0.1
Canucks 0 Kings 5 +0.1
Devils 2 Flames 4 -0.1
Devils 1 Oilers 3 *-0.1
Sharks 4 Flames 3 +0.1
Flyers 2 Flames 0 +0.1
Blue Jackets 5 Avalanche 3 +0.1
Ducks 4 Avalanche 1 +0.0
Lightning 2 Canucks 3 *-0.0
Oilers 4 Thrashers 3 *-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wild vs Flames+0.1+0.1*-0.0*+0.0*+0.0-0.3
+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.4
Avalanche vs Wild-0.3*-0.0*-0.2*+0.0+0.1+0.1
-0.4-0.1*-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1
Red Wings vs Wild-0.2*+0.0*+0.1*+0.1*+0.1+0.1
-0.3*-0.1*-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Maple Leafs vs Wild-0.3*+0.1*-0.2*+0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.3-0.0*-0.0*+0.1+0.1+0.1
Wild vs Kings+0.1*+0.1*+0.1*-0.0*+0.1-0.2
+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.3
Blue Jackets vs Wild-0.2*+0.0*+0.2*+0.1*+0.1+0.1
-0.3*-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.2
Wild vs Bruins+0.1*+0.1*-0.0*+0.0*-0.0-0.2
+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.1-0.1-0.3
Oilers vs Wild-0.2*+0.0*+0.1*+0.2*+0.0+0.1
-0.4-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.3
Wild vs Senators+0.1*+0.1*+0.1*+0.0*+0.0-0.2
+0.2+0.1+0.2*-0.1-0.1-0.3
Wild vs Ducks+0.1*+0.1*+0.0*+0.1*-0.0-0.2
+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.3
Wild vs Panthers+0.1*-0.0*+0.2*-0.2*-0.1-0.2
+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.1-0.1-0.3
Kings vs Wild-0.1*+0.0*-0.1*+0.1*+0.0+0.1
-0.3-0.0-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Sharks vs Wild-0.2*+0.0*+0.1*+0.1*+0.1+0.1
-0.3-0.0*+0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Wild vs Red Wings+0.1*+0.1*-0.0*-0.2*-0.0-0.2
+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.1-0.1-0.3
Wild vs Sabres+0.1*+0.1*+0.1*+0.0*-0.0-0.2
+0.2+0.1+0.2-0.0*-0.0-0.3
Flames vs Wild-0.2*+0.0*-0.0*+0.1*+0.0+0.1
-0.3-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.1+0.1
Avalanche vs Wild-0.2*-0.1*-0.2*+0.1*+0.1+0.1
-0.3-0.1*-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1
Coyotes vs Wild-0.2*-0.0*+0.1*+0.1*+0.1+0.1
-0.3-0.1*-0.1+0.2+0.1+0.1
Wild vs Oilers+0.1*+0.1*+0.2*+0.0*+0.0-0.2
+0.3+0.2+0.2-0.2-0.2-0.4
Oilers vs Wild-0.1*-0.0*+0.0*+0.1*+0.1+0.1
-0.4-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.2+0.3
Stars vs Wild-0.1*-0.0*+0.1*+0.1*+0.0+0.1
-0.3*-0.0*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Kings vs Wild-0.1*-0.0*-0.1*+0.1*+0.1+0.1
-0.3-0.1-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Wild vs Sharks+0.1*+0.1*+0.1*-0.0*-0.1-0.1
+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.3
Blues vs Wild-0.1*-0.1*+0.1*+0.1*+0.1+0.1
-0.3-0.1*-0.0+0.1+0.2+0.2
Wild vs Flyers+0.1*+0.1*+0.1*-0.1*-0.0-0.1
+0.2+0.1+0.2*-0.1*-0.1-0.3
Wild vs Kings+0.1*+0.0*+0.1*-0.1*+0.0-0.1
+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.0-0.3
Sabres vs Wild-0.1*+0.0*-0.1*+0.1*+0.1+0.1
-0.2*-0.0*-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Wild vs Avalanche+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.4
Wild vs Oilers+0.3+0.2+0.2-0.2-0.2-0.4

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Wild finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
129-147In100847*
128357-5In9810576*
127358-4In9910798*
126348-5In97301,106*
125349-4In95501,616*
124339-5In91911,977*
1233310-4In8811012,728*
1223210-5In8217013,379*
1213110-6In7523024,016*
1203111-5In65300404,673*
1193011-6In55381505,251*
1183012-5In44462703,693*
3113-3In44452912,191*
1172912-6In3451311102,680*
3013-4In345231013,555*
1162913-5In2258513204,205*
3014-3In2655512202,454*
1152813-6In1659714504,118*
2712-8In1458815502,390*
1142814-5In9571016714,159*
2915-3In9571015712,368*
1132714-6In552121712202,181
2815-4In552131611204,046*
1122715-5In346151516503,815*
2816-3In245151517512,153*
1112615-6In138181420813,247*
2514-8In136171322912,085*
1102616-5In03019112415204,768*
1092516-6In0232072421404,166*
1082517-5In0162052428703,387*
1072417-6In1118322321302,755*
1062418-5In717117352012,204*
1052318-6In415112362931,778*
1042319-599.9%312083636501,384*
1032219-699.22100530411211,015*
1022119-798.21722251152766*
1012120-697.71611647272486*
1002121-595.4311341385351*
992021-688.6163546101228*
982022-581.3362845172160*
971922-663.822184131594*
961923-552.694439957*
951924-428.929588538*
941824-523.8244824521*
931623-812.51375138*
921624-7Out3344229*
911726-4Out1414717*
89-90Out1002*
841127-9Out1001
53047-0Out1008
Total:99.8%29348887410000100,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Lottery seed
Wild 4 Coyotes 5 +1.3
Wild 1 Blackhawks 3 +1.2
Wild 3 Stars 4 +1.2
Wild 4 Ducks 5 +1.1
Wild 3 Blues 5 +1.1
Wild 0 Coyotes 3 +1.1
Ducks 5 Wild 3 +1.1
Islanders 3 Wild 2 +1.0
Lightning 4 Wild 3 +1.0
Rangers 5 Wild 3 +1.0
Blues 4 Wild 1 +1.0
Predators 3 Wild 2 +1.0
Stars 2 Wild 4 -0.9
Predators 3 Wild 5 -0.9
Penguins 2 Wild 4 -0.9
Sharks 3 Wild 4 -0.9
Capitals 2 Wild 3 (so)-0.9
Thrashers 1 Wild 3 -0.9
Bruins 1 Wild 7 -0.9
Senators 1 Wild 4 -0.9
Wild 4 Canucks 3 -0.8
Devils 1 Wild 2 -0.8
Wild 5 Avalanche 3 -0.8
Wild 3 Stars 2 -0.8
Canadiens 1 Wild 4 -0.8
Wild 5 Red Wings 1 -0.8
Wild 4 Flames 2 -0.8
Wild 4 Sharks 3 -0.8
Wild 7 Blue Jackets 3 -0.8
Wild 3 Islanders 2 -0.8
Flyers 4 Wild 5 (ot)-0.7
Wild 3 Hurricanes 0 -0.7
Wild 2 Penguins 1 -0.7
Wild 3 Canucks 0 -0.7
Wild 3 Blues 2 (ot)-0.7
Wild 3 Capitals 2 -0.7
Wild 3 Devils 1 -0.7
Kings 3 Ducks 2 (so)*+0.3
Maple Leafs 4 Blue Jackets 3 (so)*-0.3
Islanders 3 Devils 4 (so)*+0.2
Canadiens 4 Coyotes 3 (so)*-0.2
Thrashers 3 Flames 4 (ot)+0.2
Capitals 5 Panthers 4 (so)*+0.2
Blue Jackets 3 Devils 4 (ot)+0.2
Thrashers 5 Canadiens 4 (so)*-0.2
Oilers 4 Maple Leafs 5 -0.2
Red Wings 3 Oilers 4 (so)-0.2
Canucks 2 Devils 3 (so)+0.2
Capitals 2 Stars 1 (so)-0.2
Bruins 3 Predators 4 (so)*+0.2
Blue Jackets 3 Ducks 2 (ot)*+0.2
Avalanche 3 Bruins 2 (so)*+0.2
Canucks 3 Rangers 4 (ot)*-0.2
Hurricanes 4 Oilers 5 (so)*+0.2
Oilers 2 Canadiens 4 -0.2
Devils 4 Maple Leafs 3 (so)*+0.2
Canucks 2 Stars 5 -0.1
Canucks 0 Kings 5 -0.1
Devils 1 Oilers 3 +0.1
Blackhawks 8 Wild 7 (so)*+0.1
Canucks 5 Maple Leafs 3 *+0.1
Ducks 4 Avalanche 1 -0.1
Thrashers 2 Canucks 5 *+0.1
Penguins 5 Flames 2 -0.0
Maple Leafs 6 Bruins 0 *-0.0
Flames 3 Senators 2 +0.0
Lightning 6 Bruins 2 *-0.0
Flames 6 Flyers 4 *+0.0
Oilers 4 Thrashers 3 +0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wild vs Oilers-0.5-0.3-0.3+0.4+0.3+0.8
Oilers vs Wild+0.7+0.2+0.2-0.5-0.4-0.6
Wild vs Oilers-0.5-0.3-0.4+0.3+0.3+0.8
Oilers vs Wild+0.7+0.2+0.2-0.4-0.4-0.6
Kings vs Wild+0.5+0.0*+0.1-0.5-0.4-0.4
Wild vs Kings-0.4-0.3-0.3+0.2+0.2+0.6
Wild vs Flames-0.2-0.3-0.2+0.1+0.2+0.7
Wild vs Ducks-0.4-0.3-0.3+0.1+0.1+0.6
Avalanche vs Wild+0.7+0.2*+0.2-0.3-0.3-0.2
Sharks vs Wild+0.5*+0.1*-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.4
Flames vs Wild+0.6+0.2*+0.2-0.4-0.3-0.3
Wild vs Kings-0.3-0.3-0.3+0.2+0.1+0.6
Kings vs Wild+0.5+0.1+0.0-0.4-0.4-0.4
Stars vs Wild+0.5*+0.1*+0.0-0.4-0.4-0.4
Wild vs Flyers-0.3-0.3-0.3*+0.2+0.1+0.6
Avalanche vs Wild+0.7+0.2*+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2
Coyotes vs Wild+0.5+0.2+0.1-0.4-0.2-0.3
Wild vs Sharks-0.3-0.3-0.3+0.1*+0.1+0.6
Wild vs Senators-0.3-0.2-0.3*+0.1+0.1+0.6
Wild vs Avalanche-0.2-0.2-0.2+0.2+0.3+0.7
Wild vs Rangers-0.4-0.3-0.3+0.1+0.1+0.5
Wild vs Panthers-0.2-0.2*-0.2+0.2+0.2+0.7
Wild vs Red Wings-0.3-0.3-0.2*+0.2+0.2+0.6
Blues vs Wild+0.5+0.1+0.0-0.2-0.4-0.4
Maple Leafs vs Wild+0.6+0.1+0.1*-0.2-0.3-0.2
Wild vs Sabres-0.3-0.3-0.3+0.1*+0.1+0.5
Sabres vs Wild+0.4*+0.0+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.4
Blue Jackets vs Wild+0.6*+0.1*+0.0-0.3-0.3-0.3
Wild vs Bruins-0.2-0.2-0.2*+0.1+0.2+0.7
Red Wings vs Wild+0.5+0.1*+0.1-0.3-0.3-0.3
Wild vs Blue Jackets-0.2-0.2-0.3*+0.2+0.1+0.6
Wild vs Maple Leafs-0.2-0.2-0.2+0.3+0.3+0.7

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
136-147100
135394-46733
134395-38317
133385-47921
132386-36931
131376-47129
130366-54852
129367-44456
128357-53663100
127358-42970100
126348-51978300
125349-41580410
124339-51081721
1233310-468174010
1223210-5379107010
1213110-62731112020
1203111-516412180310
1193011-605512261510
1183012-504411342620
1172912-634942307310
1162913-5247495085200
1152813-6156527086500
1142814-594549079701
1132714-65250121611111200
1122715-53145132411143500
1112615-61136153211165801
1102616-5003014511016714020
1092516-6002314617141019140
1082517-50016128051113244700
1072417-61181037152661300
1062418-57611141424111911
1052318-64411121119172543
1042319-53390171422288500
1032219-621800562527151101
1022119-71170231925251322
1012120-6106111518292162
1002121-531013833201840
992021-616530202683
982022-53622618271261
971922-62218933191331
961923-59539211952
951924-4292432133
941824-52410332455
931623-813383813
921624-711671111
911726-4145729
901626-5100
891627-4100
841127-9100
53047-03863
Total:22752962455352311000000000