How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Blues 0 Sharks 2 -6.3
-0.6
Blues 3 Stars 6 -6.0
-0.6
Blues 0 Stars 2 -5.9
-0.6
Blues 1 Oilers 2 -5.9
-0.6
Blues 2 Kings 5 -5.8
-0.6
Blues 1 Kings 3 -5.6
-0.6
Blues 1 Flyers 3 -5.3
-0.6
Oilers 2 Blues 0 -5.2
-0.5
Avalanche 2 Blues 1 -5.1
-0.5
Red Wings 3 Blues 2 -5.1
-0.5
Wild 3 Blues 5 +5.0
+0.5
Stars 4 Blues 6 +4.9
+0.5
Blue Jackets 6 Blues 4 -4.8
-0.5
Red Wings 3 Blues 4 +4.7
+0.5
Coyotes 2 Blues 5 +4.7
+0.5
Blackhawks 1 Blues 4 +4.7
+0.5
Senators 3 Blues 2 -4.6
-0.5
Kings 2 Blues 3 +4.6
+0.5
Flames 2 Blues 5 +4.6
+0.5
Penguins 3 Blues 4 +4.5
+0.4
Ducks 3 Blues 5 +4.4
+0.5
Coyotes 0 Blues 1 +4.3
+0.4
Devils 1 Blues 2 +4.3
+0.4
Kings 3 Blues 4 (so)+4.1
+0.5
Blues 4 Coyotes 3 +4.0
+0.4
Blues 3 Canucks 2 +4.0
+0.4
Blues 4 Wild 1 +4.0
+0.4
Blues 2 Sharks 0 +3.9
+0.4
Blues 4 Predators 1 +3.8
+0.4
Blues 6 Predators 3 +3.8
+0.4
Maple Leafs 5 Blues 6 (so)+3.7
+0.4
Blues 5 Coyotes 4 +3.5
+0.4
Blues 4 Lightning 3 (ot)+3.4
+0.3
Blues 3 Devils 1 +3.1
+0.3
Blues 4 Senators 1 +3.0
+0.3
Predators 6 Blues 5 (so)*-2.0
*-0.2
Blues 2 Bruins 3 (so)*-1.9
*-0.2
Blues 2 Capitals 3 (so)*-1.1
-0.1
Blue Jackets 1 Sabres 3 +0.8
Lightning 4 Wild 3 +0.8
Canadiens 3 Blackhawks 0 +0.8
Penguins 3 Blackhawks 1 +0.7
+0.1
Flyers 4 Blue Jackets 3 *+0.6
Oilers 3 Flames 2 (so)*+0.6
Blues 2 Sabres 3 (ot)*-0.6
*-0.1
Canadiens 4 Coyotes 3 (so)*-0.6
Wild 3 Hurricanes 0 *-0.6
*-0.0
Flames 3 Maple Leafs 1 *-0.5
Wild 3 Blues 2 (ot)*+0.4
*+0.0
Canadiens 4 Bruins 0 *+0.4
Maple Leafs 6 Bruins 0 *+0.3
Stars 5 Coyotes 3 *-0.3
Canucks 5 Blues 4 (so)*+0.2
*+0.0
Bruins 5 Blues 4 (so)*-0.1
*-0.0
Bruins 2 Blackhawks 1 +0.1
Blue Jackets 3 Devils 4 (ot)+0.0
Oilers 7 Blackhawks 2 +0.0
Coyotes 3 Flames 4 *+0.0
Canadiens 1 Maple Leafs 2 *-0.0
Blackhawks 2 Ducks 5 +0.0
Red Wings 3 Blackhawks 4 *+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Blues vs Blue Jackets+1.1+0.8+0.8*-0.7*-0.3-2.2
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.1-0.1-0.4
Blues vs Blackhawks+1.1+0.6+0.9*-0.4-0.6-2.2
+0.2+0.1*+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.4
Blues vs Wild+1.0+0.8+1.7*-0.0*+0.1-1.4
+0.2+0.2+0.3-0.0-0.1-0.3
Blues vs Blackhawks+0.8+0.8+1.1*-0.2-0.6-1.9
+0.2+0.2+0.1*-0.0-0.1-0.4
Blues vs Blue Jackets+1.0+0.9+0.9*-0.3-0.8-2.0
+0.2+0.2*+0.1*-0.1-0.1-0.4
Blue Jackets vs Blues-1.8*-0.2*-0.4+0.9+0.9+1.2
-0.3*-0.1*-0.1+0.1+0.2+0.2
Blues vs Red Wings+1.1+0.8+0.8*-0.7-0.6-1.9
+0.3+0.2*+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.5
Blackhawks vs Blues-1.8*-0.2*-0.5*+0.7+1.0+1.1
-0.3*-0.0*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Blues vs Red Wings+1.1+0.9+0.7*-0.8-0.7-1.8
+0.3+0.2+0.2-0.2-0.2-0.4
Blues vs Islanders+0.6+0.5+0.8*-0.6*-0.4-2.0
+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.4
Blues vs Flames+0.8+0.7*+0.4*-0.1*-0.2-1.9
+0.1+0.1+0.2*-0.1-0.1-0.3
Blues vs Avalanche+0.5+0.5+0.9*-0.8*-0.5-1.8
+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.4
Islanders vs Blues-1.6*-0.3*-0.6+1.0+0.6+0.7
-0.3-0.1*-0.1+0.2+0.1+0.1
Ducks vs Blues-1.2*+0.1*-0.1+1.4+1.2+1.1
-0.2*-0.0*+0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Blues vs Canucks+0.8+0.8*+0.4*-0.5-0.6-1.8
+0.1+0.2+0.1*-0.1*-0.1-0.3
Canucks vs Blues-1.5-0.6*-0.3+1.1+1.0+0.8
-0.3-0.1*-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.1
Flames vs Blues-1.6*-0.1*-0.3+0.8+0.7+0.9
-0.3-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.2
Sharks vs Blues-1.3*+0.1*+0.1*+0.7+1.1+1.2
-0.3*+0.0*+0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Lightning vs Blues-1.5*+0.2*-0.5+1.0+1.0+0.9
-0.3-0.0*-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Blues vs Avalanche+0.7*+0.4*+0.5*-0.5*-0.4-1.8
+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.1-0.1-0.3
Rangers vs Blues-1.0*+0.1*+0.6+1.5+1.2+1.0
-0.2*+0.0*+0.1+0.2+0.3+0.2
Predators vs Blues-1.5*-0.5*-0.3+0.9+0.6+0.7
-0.3*-0.1*-0.1+0.2+0.1+0.1
Sharks vs Blues-1.3*+0.1*+0.1+1.1+1.1+1.1
-0.3*-0.0*+0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Thrashers vs Blues-1.3*-0.1*-0.0+1.0+0.9+1.1
-0.2*-0.0*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Blues vs Rangers+0.9+1.2+1.1*-0.1*+0.2-1.2
+0.2+0.2+0.2*+0.0*+0.0-0.2
Panthers vs Blues-1.5*-0.3*+0.4*+0.7+0.9+0.7
-0.3-0.1*-0.0+0.2+0.1+0.2
Avalanche vs Blues-1.6*-0.4*-0.2*+0.7+0.6+0.7
-0.3*-0.1*-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1
Blues vs Panthers+0.7+0.5*+0.3*-0.6*-0.4-1.6
+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.1-0.1-0.3
Blues vs Penguins+0.8+0.9+0.8*+0.0*-0.4-1.4
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.0*-0.1-0.3
Blues vs Thrashers+0.8+0.9*+0.6*+0.2*-0.1-1.4
+0.2+0.2+0.1*+0.0-0.1-0.3
Blues vs Ducks+0.8+0.9+1.1*-0.2*-0.2-1.2
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.0-0.0-0.3
Stars vs Blues-1.1*-0.1*-0.0+1.2+1.0+0.9
-0.3*+0.0*-0.0+0.3+0.2+0.2
Capitals vs Blues-1.2*-0.1*+0.0+0.8+1.1+0.9
-0.3*-0.0-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Hurricanes vs Blues-1.2*-0.2*-0.0+0.9+0.8+1.0
-0.2-0.0*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Blues vs Ducks+0.9+0.9+0.9*-0.0*-0.4-1.3
+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.0-0.1-0.3
Oilers vs Blues-1.2*+0.1*+0.1+1.1+0.9+1.0
-0.2*-0.0*+0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Blues vs Oilers+0.8+0.9*+0.5*-0.5*+0.1-1.4
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.1-0.1-0.3
Flyers vs Blues-1.1*-0.0*-0.2*+0.7+1.1+0.9
-0.2*-0.0*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Canadiens vs Blues-0.9*+0.2*+0.1+1.2+1.2+1.2
-0.2*+0.0*+0.0+0.3+0.2+0.3
Sabres vs Blues-1.0*-0.0*-0.3*+0.8+0.9+1.1
-0.2*-0.0*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Blues finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
128-141In10022*
127355-4In94616*
126356-3In95520*
125346-4In94652*
124336-5In891191*
123326-6In80192181*
122327-5In74251268*
121328-4In64334428*
120318-5In55405610*
119308-6In44479944*
118309-5In3451151,341*
117299-6In24532201,863*
1162910-5In155431002,310*
1152810-6In9484302,943*
1142811-5In543510003,659*
1132711-6In234630004,402*
1122712-5In1257211005,020*
1112612-6In01880110005,754*
1102613-5In01185111003,279*
2512-7In01284111002,997*
1092513-6In0787122106,563*
1082514-5In0588023206,769*
1072414-6In387024316,764*
1062415-5100.0%1850146206,430*
1052315-6100.01810158406,283*
1042316-599.817601411705,574*
1032216-699.506904131315,089*
1022217-598.70620031520104,320*
1012117-696.852021429303,784*
1002118-593.444011336602,979*
992018-689.134111431012,414*
982019-582.52908451621,919*
971919-671.420054624401,432*
961920-561.316034230801,139*
951820-650.4100239351320782*
941821-535.5612843202544*
931721-623.82121452651374*
921722-515.92144030131220*
911622-610.61931381641160*
901522-73.33293723891*
891624-41.41115029872*
881423-7Out5254028340*
871525-4Out5184127922*
861425-5Out11222233119*
851325-6Out142943147*
841427-3Out142943147*
831327-4Out33673*
821025-9Out1001
811026-8Out1001
53044-0Out1008
Total:96.5%3136501258310000100,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Lottery seed
Blues 0 Sharks 2 +1.2
Blues 3 Stars 6 +1.2
Blues 0 Stars 2 +1.2
Blues 1 Oilers 2 +1.2
Blues 1 Kings 3 +1.2
Blues 1 Flyers 3 +1.2
Blues 2 Kings 5 +1.1
Red Wings 3 Blues 2 +1.1
Avalanche 2 Blues 1 +1.1
Oilers 2 Blues 0 +1.0
Kings 3 Blues 4 (so)-1.0
Wild 3 Blues 5 -1.0
Senators 3 Blues 2 +1.0
Blackhawks 1 Blues 4 -1.0
Red Wings 3 Blues 4 -1.0
Blue Jackets 6 Blues 4 +1.0
Stars 4 Blues 6 -1.0
Coyotes 2 Blues 5 -0.9
Kings 2 Blues 3 -0.9
Penguins 3 Blues 4 -0.9
Flames 2 Blues 5 -0.9
Ducks 3 Blues 5 -0.9
Devils 1 Blues 2 -0.9
Maple Leafs 5 Blues 6 (so)-0.9
Coyotes 0 Blues 1 -0.9
Blues 4 Predators 1 -0.8
Blues 6 Predators 3 -0.8
Blues 3 Canucks 2 -0.8
Blues 4 Coyotes 3 -0.8
Blues 4 Wild 1 -0.8
Blues 2 Sharks 0 -0.7
Blues 5 Coyotes 4 -0.7
Blues 4 Lightning 3 (ot)-0.7
Blues 4 Senators 1 -0.7
Blues 3 Devils 1 -0.7
Blues 2 Bruins 3 (so)+0.4
Predators 6 Blues 5 (so)*+0.4
Stars 2 Flames 3 (so)*+0.3
Bruins 3 Predators 4 (so)*+0.3
Blues 2 Capitals 3 (so)+0.3
Sharks 2 Lightning 1 (so)*+0.2
Islanders 3 Canucks 2 (so)*+0.2
Hurricanes 4 Oilers 5 (so)-0.2
Sabres 2 Blackhawks 3 (so)*+0.2
Blues 2 Sabres 3 (ot)*+0.2
Stars 1 Capitals 2 (so)-0.2
Blue Jackets 1 Sabres 3 -0.2
Penguins 3 Blackhawks 1 -0.2
Canucks 5 Blues 4 (so)*-0.1
Coyotes 3 Flames 4 *-0.1
Canucks 2 Stars 5 *+0.1
Ducks 4 Coyotes 3 *-0.1
Blackhawks 8 Wild 7 (so)-0.0
Wild 3 Blues 2 (ot)-0.0
Bruins 5 Blues 4 (so)*+0.0
Blackhawks 2 Ducks 5 -0.0
Blackhawks 5 Coyotes 4 *+0.0
Blackhawks 2 Devils 0 *-0.0
Predators 2 Red Wings 6 *-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Blues vs Red Wings-0.6-0.4*-0.2+0.4+0.3+0.9
Blues vs Red Wings-0.6-0.3-0.4+0.4+0.4+0.9
Blues vs Blue Jackets-0.4-0.3-0.3*+0.3+0.2+0.8
Blues vs Blue Jackets-0.4-0.4-0.3*+0.2+0.2+0.7
Blues vs Blackhawks-0.3-0.4-0.3*+0.1+0.1+0.7
Blue Jackets vs Blues+0.7*+0.1*+0.2-0.3-0.4-0.5
Stars vs Blues+0.5*-0.0*+0.0-0.6-0.4-0.5
Blues vs Wild-0.5-0.4-0.5+0.1+0.1+0.6
Blues vs Blackhawks-0.3-0.3*-0.2+0.2+0.2+0.7
Islanders vs Blues+0.7+0.1*+0.2-0.4-0.3-0.3
Oilers vs Blues+0.5*-0.0*-0.0-0.5-0.4-0.4
Blackhawks vs Blues+0.6*+0.0*+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.4
Sharks vs Blues+0.5*-0.0-0.0-0.5-0.4-0.5
Thrashers vs Blues+0.5*+0.1+0.0-0.4-0.4-0.5
Sabres vs Blues+0.5*+0.0+0.1-0.5-0.4-0.5
Blues vs Avalanche-0.2-0.2-0.3+0.2+0.2+0.7
Blues vs Islanders-0.2-0.2-0.3*+0.2+0.2+0.7
Blues vs Thrashers-0.4-0.4-0.3*-0.0+0.2+0.6
Blues vs Flames-0.3-0.3-0.3+0.2+0.1+0.7
Blues vs Ducks-0.4-0.4-0.4*+0.1+0.0+0.6
Sharks vs Blues+0.5*+0.0*-0.0-0.4-0.4-0.5
Canucks vs Blues+0.6+0.2*+0.1-0.3-0.4-0.3
Blues vs Canucks-0.3-0.3-0.3*+0.3*+0.2+0.7
Blues vs Penguins-0.3-0.3-0.4*+0.1*+0.2+0.6
Capitals vs Blues+0.5+0.1+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.4
Ducks vs Blues+0.5*+0.0-0.1-0.5-0.5-0.5
Blues vs Oilers-0.4-0.4-0.4*+0.1+0.1+0.6
Lightning vs Blues+0.6*+0.1*+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.4
Hurricanes vs Blues+0.5+0.1+0.0-0.4-0.3-0.4
Predators vs Blues+0.6+0.2*+0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3
Blues vs Rangers-0.4-0.5-0.4*-0.0*-0.0+0.5
Blues vs Avalanche-0.2-0.2*-0.3+0.3+0.2+0.7
Flames vs Blues+0.6+0.2*+0.2-0.2-0.3-0.4
Rangers vs Blues+0.4*-0.0*-0.2-0.5-0.5-0.5
Canadiens vs Blues+0.4*-0.1-0.1-0.6-0.5-0.5
Blues vs Maple Leafs-0.3-0.2*-0.2*+0.2+0.2+0.7
Blues vs Panthers-0.3-0.3-0.3+0.3+0.2+0.7
Avalanche vs Blues+0.7+0.2+0.1-0.3-0.3-0.3
Blues vs Ducks-0.4-0.4-0.4*+0.0+0.1+0.5
Flyers vs Blues+0.5+0.0*+0.0-0.4-0.4-0.4
Blues vs Hurricanes-0.3-0.3-0.3+0.1+0.2+0.6
Blues vs Canadiens-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.2*+0.0+0.5

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
141440-0100
131384-2100
130374-3100
129364-46733
128354-53367
127355-419756
126356-320755
125346-4157924
124336-5137692
123326-64761722
122327-537115101
121328-416217164
120318-515418225
119308-604415329
118309-50341437150
117299-62413412200
1162910-51584630100
1152810-6954341100
1142811-553394830000
1132711-6223356600000
1122712-511246211001000
1112612-60017631700100000
1102613-50012592600111000
1092513-600753351112010
1082514-50054444001130200
1072414-633651011313010
1062415-5127590012160200
1052315-6119620012371400
1042316-51126400113837000
1032216-6076300138511100
1022217-5045800036816410
1012117-6250002410199300
1002118-5143013102016610
992018-6034111017258200
982019-529008113411510
971919-6200057391213400
961920-51603339111891
951820-6100223711201530
941821-5611279242560
931721-62121526291321
921722-5214421322150
911622-6191113624142
901522-73103531164
891624-41422392410
881423-782840205
871525-4523322714
861425-5111133221111
851325-614431429
841326-514294314
831327-4333333
821025-9100
811026-8100
53044-0100
Total:03111303400001132441110000000