How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Blackhawks 2 Ducks 5 -6.2
-0.6
Blackhawks 4 Stars 6 -6.0
-0.6
Blackhawks 3 Sharks 7 -6.0
-0.6
Blackhawks 1 Canucks 3 -5.8
-0.6
Blackhawks 1 Blues 4 -5.7
-0.6
Blackhawks 2 Capitals 5 -5.4
-0.5
Blackhawks 2 Hurricanes 4 -5.2
-0.5
Blackhawks 3 Maple Leafs 4 -5.2
-0.5
Canucks 5 Blackhawks 3 -5.2
-0.5
Blackhawks 2 Rangers 3 -5.0
-0.5
Bruins 2 Blackhawks 1 -4.9
-0.5
Flames 3 Blackhawks 1 -4.9
-0.5
Sharks 3 Blackhawks 1 -4.9
-0.5
Avalanche 0 Blackhawks 2 +4.8
+0.5
Predators 2 Blackhawks 0 -4.8
-0.5
Thrashers 4 Blackhawks 1 -4.8
-0.5
Red Wings 3 Blackhawks 4 +4.8
+0.5
Canadiens 3 Blackhawks 0 -4.7
-0.5
Flyers 5 Blackhawks 3 -4.7
-0.5
Blue Jackets 3 Blackhawks 2 -4.7
-0.5
Penguins 3 Blackhawks 1 -4.7
-0.5
Oilers 7 Blackhawks 2 -4.7
-0.5
Wild 1 Blackhawks 3 +4.6
+0.5
Blue Jackets 4 Blackhawks 7 +4.5
+0.5
Ducks 0 Blackhawks 3 +4.4
+0.4
Flames 1 Blackhawks 2 +4.3
+0.5
Stars 5 Blackhawks 6 (so)+4.0
+0.4
Devils 1 Blackhawks 2 +3.9
+0.4
Panthers 3 Blackhawks 7 +3.9
+0.4
Blackhawks 7 Avalanche 3 +3.8
+0.4
Blackhawks 8 Wild 7 (so)+3.7
+0.4
Blackhawks 3 Ducks 1 +3.6
+0.4
Blackhawks 5 Coyotes 4 +3.6
+0.4
Blackhawks 1 Penguins 0 +3.5
+0.4
Blackhawks 1 Canucks 0 +3.5
+0.4
Blackhawks 6 Flyers 4 +3.3
+0.4
Blackhawks 2 Devils 0 +3.3
+0.3
Blackhawks 4 Senators 2 +3.1
+0.3
Sabres 2 Blackhawks 3 (so)+3.0
+0.3
Blackhawks 4 Bruins 3 (ot)+3.0
+0.3
Islanders 4 Sabres 5 (ot)-1.5
Blackhawks 1 Sharks 2 (ot)*-1.1
*-0.1
Wild 4 Ducks 5 +0.9
Canadiens 3 Sharks 2 +0.9
Senators 5 Predators 3 +0.8
Senators 3 Blues 2 +0.7
Coyotes 5 Ducks 6 (so)*-0.7
Ducks 3 Flyers 1 *-0.6
Blues 2 Kings 5 *+0.5
Blue Jackets 3 Panthers 1 *-0.5
Ducks 3 Sharks 4 *+0.5
Flyers 4 Red Wings 3 (ot)*-0.4
Kings 6 Blue Jackets 3 *+0.4
Wild 3 Stars 4 *+0.3
Wild 3 Canucks 0 *+0.3
Coyotes 3 Maple Leafs 1 *-0.3
Oilers 4 Thrashers 3 *-0.3
Red Wings 3 Coyotes 2 (so)*+0.3
Panthers 5 Rangers 2 *-0.3
Kings 4 Canadiens 3 *-0.2
Sharks 1 Stars 3 *+0.2
Sabres 2 Capitals 3 *-0.2
Hurricanes 5 Capitals 3 *-0.2
Flames 2 Penguins 1 (ot)*-0.2
Bruins 3 Thrashers 1 *-0.2
Capitals 2 Blackhawks 1 (ot)*-0.1
Flyers 5 Bruins 6 (so)*-0.2
Blues 1 Flyers 3 +0.1
Senators 2 Blue Jackets 5 -0.1
Red Wings 6 Penguins 5 (so)*-0.0
Blue Jackets 3 Avalanche 5 +0.0
Blue Jackets 6 Hurricanes 3 *-0.0
Bruins 5 Blues 4 (so)*-0.0
Maple Leafs 5 Lightning 1 *+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Red Wings vs Blackhawks-4.0-1.4*-0.6+3.1+3.3+5.2
-0.3-0.0*-0.0+0.2+0.3+0.3
Blackhawks vs Red Wings+3.9+3.3+1.5-2.2-1.8-4.3
+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.3
Blackhawks vs Red Wings+4.0+2.7+2.1-2.0-2.3-4.2
+0.3+0.2+0.2*-0.1-0.1-0.3
Senators vs Blackhawks-2.9*+0.2*-0.4+4.6+2.9+3.1
-0.2*+0.0*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Blackhawks vs Blue Jackets+3.4+1.8+2.4-2.4-1.6-4.0
+0.3+0.2+0.2-0.2-0.1-0.3
Blackhawks vs Wild+2.5+3.6+4.4*+0.8*+0.1-2.8
+0.2+0.3+0.3*+0.1*+0.0-0.2
Blackhawks vs Blue Jackets+3.0+2.4+3.1*-1.5-1.6-4.0
+0.3+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.3
Blackhawks vs Predators+1.9+1.7+3.1-1.8-1.3-3.8
+0.2+0.1+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.3
Blackhawks vs Blues+3.1+3.3+3.1*-0.4*-0.4-3.5
+0.2+0.2+0.3*-0.0*-0.0-0.3
Ducks vs Blackhawks-2.7*+0.1*+0.7+3.3+4.0+3.4
-0.2*+0.0+0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Lightning vs Blackhawks-2.9*-0.2*-1.0+3.8+2.5+2.8
-0.2+0.0*-0.1+0.3+0.2+0.2
Coyotes vs Blackhawks-3.5*-0.6*-0.8+2.3+2.8+3.2
-0.3*-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.3
Oilers vs Blackhawks-2.8*-0.1*+0.5+3.4+3.8+3.3
-0.2*+0.0*+0.0+0.2+0.3+0.3
Sharks vs Blackhawks-2.9*+0.5*+0.4+3.2+2.5+3.7
-0.2*+0.1*+0.0+0.3+0.2+0.3
Kings vs Blackhawks-2.6*+0.2*+0.6+2.8+3.8+3.4
-0.2+0.0*+0.0+0.2+0.3+0.3
Blackhawks vs Flames+2.6+1.9+2.2-1.8-1.3-3.8
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.1-0.1-0.4
Canucks vs Blackhawks-3.2*-0.7*-0.2+3.2+2.1+2.7
-0.3-0.1*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.3
Rangers vs Blackhawks-2.2*+0.5*-0.3+3.5+4.2+3.5
-0.2*+0.1*+0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Blackhawks vs Oilers+3.3+2.2+2.6*-0.6*-0.2-3.1
+0.2+0.2+0.3*+0.0*-0.0-0.3
Kings vs Blackhawks-2.6*+0.4*-0.3+3.7+3.7+3.4
-0.2+0.0*+0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Blues vs Blackhawks-2.8*-0.1*+0.6*+1.5+3.4+3.5
-0.2+0.0*+0.1+0.2+0.3+0.3
Hurricanes vs Blackhawks-2.9*-0.1*-0.1+2.7+2.8+3.4
-0.2*-0.0*+0.1+0.2+0.2+0.3
Blackhawks vs Kings+3.3+3.0+3.3*+1.0-1.0-3.0
+0.3+0.2+0.2*+0.1-0.0-0.2
Wild vs Blackhawks-2.5*+0.4*-0.1+2.6+3.8+3.5
-0.2*+0.0*+0.0+0.2+0.3+0.3
Coyotes vs Blackhawks-3.3*-0.8*+0.5+2.8+2.6+2.9
-0.3-0.1*-0.0+0.3+0.2+0.3
Blues vs Blackhawks-2.8*+0.0*+0.8+2.7+3.0+3.4
-0.2+0.0+0.0+0.2+0.3+0.3
Stars vs Blackhawks-2.6*+0.3*-0.1+3.5+3.5+3.0
-0.2*+0.0-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Blackhawks vs Stars+3.0+3.1+2.7*-0.4*-0.8-3.1
+0.2+0.2+0.2*+0.0*-0.0-0.3
Blackhawks vs Lightning+2.6+2.3+2.2*-1.0*-0.9-3.6
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.1*-0.0-0.3
Blackhawks vs Predators+1.6+2.0+2.5*-1.0-1.3-3.6
+0.2+0.2+0.1-0.1*-0.1-0.3
Blackhawks vs Flames+2.4+2.2+2.0*-0.3-2.0-3.7
+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.2-0.4
Blackhawks vs Panthers+2.1+1.8+2.2*-1.5*-0.8-3.8
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.0*-0.0-0.3
Blackhawks vs Canadiens+3.6+3.4+3.2*+1.1*+0.2-2.4
+0.3+0.3+0.3+0.1*+0.0-0.2
Blackhawks vs Thrashers+2.7+2.8+2.5*-0.1*-0.2-3.2
+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.0*-0.0-0.3
Blackhawks vs Islanders+1.4+2.2+2.2*-1.0-1.1-3.7
+0.1+0.2+0.2*-0.1-0.1-0.3
Blackhawks vs Kings+3.0+2.8+2.5*+0.2*-0.1-2.8
+0.3+0.2+0.2*-0.0*+0.0-0.2
Blackhawks vs Oilers+2.9+2.9+2.9*-0.2*-0.6-2.9
+0.2+0.2+0.3*+0.0*-0.0-0.2
Blackhawks vs Sabres+3.1+2.9+2.3*-0.6*+0.2-2.7
+0.3+0.2+0.2+0.0*+0.0-0.2
Predators vs Blackhawks-3.3-1.0*-1.0+1.7+2.4+2.4
-0.3*-0.1*-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Islanders vs Blackhawks-3.5*-0.4*-0.8+2.2+2.1+2.0
-0.3*-0.1*-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Blackhawks vs Coyotes+2.2+2.1+1.5*-1.0-1.3-3.3
+0.2+0.2+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.3
Maple Leafs vs Blackhawks-3.2*-0.7*-0.1+2.1+2.1+2.2
-0.3*-0.0*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Blackhawks vs Avalanche+1.7+1.5+1.4*-0.6-1.1-3.5
+0.2+0.1+0.1*-0.1*-0.1-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Blackhawks finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
130430-0In1008
114-115In1002*
112327-4In3350176*
111317-5In86147*
110307-6In2346151513*
109308-5In6611963331*
108287-8In448218161356*
107288-7In572812165116*
106289-699.4%1409192371170*
1052810-598.9136221530151262*
1042710-697.62531532222420*
1032610-794.61618343550616*
1022611-688.914082739111862*
1012511-782.6100425441711,191*
1002512-673.670117482421,669*
992412-764.241124832302,165*
982413-650.72074242702,845*
972313-740.210435471213,437*
962314-628.2102265120104,220*
952214-719.7001195027304,974*
942215-613.500134634605,568*
932115-76.7007414110105,950*
922116-64.104334616206,335*
912016-72.3002224824406,674*
902017-61.01164532706,679*
891917-70.401039381216,545*
881817-80.306304120206,353*
871818-70.003234226605,862*
861819-60.002164034905,211*
851719-7Out11034401514,746*
841619-80.000528432223,859*
831620-7Out0219443233,209*
821621-6Out115413952,656*
811521-7Out093449702,060*
801522-6Out0429531401,601*
791422-7Out0222571901,146*
781423-6Out011656270831*
771323-7Out01052361608*
761324-6Out745462385*
751325-5Out435574260*
741225-6Out136575147*
731125-7Out323641099*
721126-6Out27621155*
711026-7Out13741331*
701027-6Out14622429*
69927-7Out57437*
68928-6Out88138*
67828-7Out33673*
66728-8Out1001
65931-3Out67333*
64932-2Out1001
44043-0Out1008
Total:12.7%0010002920242014820100,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Lottery seed
Blackhawks 4 Stars 6 +1.2
Blackhawks 2 Ducks 5 +1.2
Blackhawks 3 Sharks 7 +1.2
Blackhawks 1 Blues 4 +1.2
Blackhawks 1 Canucks 3 +1.2
Blackhawks 2 Capitals 5 +1.1
Blackhawks 2 Hurricanes 4 +1.1
Blackhawks 3 Maple Leafs 4 +1.1
Blackhawks 2 Rangers 3 +1.1
Predators 2 Blackhawks 0 +1.1
Bruins 2 Blackhawks 1 +1.0
Canucks 5 Blackhawks 3 +1.0
Blue Jackets 3 Blackhawks 2 +1.0
Flames 3 Blackhawks 1 +1.0
Flyers 5 Blackhawks 3 +1.0
Thrashers 4 Blackhawks 1 +1.0
Canadiens 3 Blackhawks 0 +1.0
Penguins 3 Blackhawks 1 +1.0
Red Wings 3 Blackhawks 4 -1.0
Blue Jackets 4 Blackhawks 7 -1.0
Sharks 3 Blackhawks 1 +1.0
Oilers 7 Blackhawks 2 +1.0
Avalanche 0 Blackhawks 2 -1.0
Wild 1 Blackhawks 3 -0.9
Flames 1 Blackhawks 2 -0.9
Ducks 0 Blackhawks 3 -0.9
Devils 1 Blackhawks 2 -0.9
Panthers 3 Blackhawks 7 -0.8
Stars 5 Blackhawks 6 (so)-0.8
Blackhawks 7 Avalanche 3 -0.8
Blackhawks 1 Penguins 0 -0.8
Blackhawks 3 Ducks 1 -0.7
Blackhawks 5 Coyotes 4 -0.7
Blackhawks 6 Flyers 4 -0.7
Blackhawks 2 Devils 0 -0.7
Blackhawks 8 Wild 7 (so)-0.7
Sabres 2 Blackhawks 3 (so)*-0.7
Blackhawks 1 Canucks 0 -0.7
Blackhawks 4 Senators 2 -0.7
Blackhawks 4 Bruins 3 (ot)-0.6
Flyers 5 Bruins 6 (so)*+0.3
Blackhawks 1 Sharks 2 (ot)*+0.2
Capitals 5 Panthers 4 (so)*+0.2
Canadiens 6 Penguins 5 (so)*-0.2
Islanders 4 Sabres 5 (ot)+0.2
Maple Leafs 4 Blue Jackets 3 (so)*-0.2
Red Wings 3 Oilers 4 (so)*+0.2
Sharks 2 Lightning 1 (so)*-0.2
Bruins 3 Predators 4 (so)*+0.2
Coyotes 5 Ducks 6 (so)*+0.2
Predators 2 Kings 3 (ot)+0.2
Predators 4 Devils 1 +0.1
Blue Jackets 3 Rangers 5 *-0.1
Blue Jackets 3 Panthers 1 +0.1
Blues 5 Coyotes 4 *+0.1
Devils 1 Blues 2 +0.1
Senators 2 Blue Jackets 5 +0.1
Islanders 4 Red Wings 5 *+0.1
Red Wings 3 Coyotes 2 (so)*-0.0
Panthers 5 Rangers 2 *+0.0
Coyotes 3 Maple Leafs 1 +0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Red Wings vs Blackhawks+0.5+0.1*+0.0-0.4-0.5-0.5
Coyotes vs Blackhawks+0.5+0.1*+0.0-0.5-0.4-0.5
Coyotes vs Blackhawks+0.5*+0.1*+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.5
Blackhawks vs Lightning-0.4-0.4-0.3+0.2*+0.1+0.6
Senators vs Blackhawks+0.4-0.0*+0.0-0.6-0.5-0.5
Blackhawks vs Blue Jackets-0.4-0.3-0.4+0.2+0.1+0.6
Blackhawks vs Flames-0.4-0.3-0.3+0.2+0.2+0.6
Lightning vs Blackhawks+0.5*+0.0*+0.1-0.5-0.4-0.5
Blackhawks vs Flames-0.4-0.3-0.3*+0.1+0.3+0.6
Blackhawks vs Blue Jackets-0.4-0.3-0.4*+0.3+0.2+0.6
Blackhawks vs Blues-0.4-0.4-0.5*+0.0*+0.0+0.5
Blues vs Blackhawks+0.4*+0.0*-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.5
Blackhawks vs Red Wings-0.4-0.4-0.3*+0.1+0.1+0.5
Blackhawks vs Panthers-0.3-0.3-0.3*+0.1*+0.1+0.6
Canucks vs Blackhawks+0.5*+0.1*+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.4
Oilers vs Blackhawks+0.4*-0.0*-0.0-0.4-0.5-0.5
Blackhawks vs Red Wings-0.4-0.4-0.3+0.2+0.1+0.5
Blues vs Blackhawks+0.4*-0.0*-0.1-0.4-0.5-0.5
Rangers vs Blackhawks+0.3*-0.1-0.1-0.5-0.6-0.5
Ducks vs Blackhawks+0.4*-0.0*-0.2-0.5-0.6-0.5
Blackhawks vs Coyotes-0.4-0.3-0.3*+0.2+0.2+0.6
Predators vs Blackhawks+0.5*+0.1*+0.1*-0.3-0.4-0.4
Hurricanes vs Blackhawks+0.4*+0.0*-0.1-0.4-0.4-0.5
Blackhawks vs Oilers-0.4-0.4-0.5*+0.0*+0.0+0.4
Kings vs Blackhawks+0.4*-0.0-0.0-0.5-0.5-0.5
Blackhawks vs Wild-0.4-0.5-0.5*-0.1*-0.0+0.4
Sharks vs Blackhawks+0.4*-0.1*-0.0-0.5-0.4-0.5
Blackhawks vs Islanders-0.2-0.3-0.3*+0.1*+0.2+0.6
Kings vs Blackhawks+0.4-0.0*-0.0-0.4-0.5-0.5
Blackhawks vs Stars-0.4-0.4-0.4*-0.0*+0.0+0.5
Blackhawks vs Kings-0.5-0.4-0.4*-0.1*+0.1+0.4
Blackhawks vs Predators-0.3-0.3-0.3+0.2+0.1+0.6
Maple Leafs vs Blackhawks+0.5*+0.1*+0.0-0.3-0.4-0.3
Blackhawks vs Kings-0.4-0.4-0.4+0.0*-0.0+0.4
Blackhawks vs Oilers-0.4-0.4-0.4*-0.0*+0.0+0.4
Blackhawks vs Thrashers-0.4-0.4-0.3*+0.1*+0.0+0.5
Stars vs Blackhawks+0.4-0.0*+0.1-0.5-0.5-0.5
Blackhawks vs Predators-0.3-0.3-0.3*+0.2+0.2+0.6
Wild vs Blackhawks+0.4*-0.1*-0.1-0.4-0.5-0.5
Blackhawks vs Canadiens-0.5-0.5-0.5*-0.1*-0.1+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
130430-05050
114-115100
112327-433331717
111317-5434314
110307-681531151588
109308-563526136633
108287-842029271113413
107288-72532235931615
106289-6115252714622171
1052810-5172922682731401
1042710-6224035102572012
1032610-7115126211432350
1022611-61140171315318101
1012511-7190037193014161
1002512-6070131427212141
992412-7401110193026910
982413-6020061131281740
972313-710046292625810
962314-6100222421331530
952214-700111816342461
942215-6000131032321110
932115-70006627371940
922116-60042193827810
912016-7002112333514300
902017-6107263922500
891917-70041836301020
881817-80021030361840
871818-7005233625810
861819-600315343213300
851719-7019263522610
841619-80041936281120
831620-7021030361840
821621-616233725810
811521-7031633311420
801522-601927372150
791422-705183828810
781423-602123335152
771323-701826372260
761324-6216383591
751325-52113136191
741225-672742223
731125-7515333871
721025-822293874
711026-710295263
701027-632152177
69927-714294314
68928-6136325
67828-73367
66728-8100
65931-36733
64932-2100
44043-0100
Total:0000010000011276111516141174210000