How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Sabres 1 Senators 3 -5.9
-0.6
Sabres 2 Capitals 3 -5.8
-0.6
Sabres 2 Penguins 3 -5.7
-0.6
Sabres 0 Oilers 2 -5.5
-0.6
Hurricanes 3 Sabres 2 -5.0
-0.5
Bruins 2 Sabres 4 +4.7
+0.5
Lightning 5 Sabres 3 -4.7
-0.5
Blues 2 Sabres 3 (ot)+4.7
+0.5
Avalanche 6 Sabres 2 -4.6
-0.5
Sharks 5 Sabres 2 -4.6
-0.5
Coyotes 5 Sabres 4 -4.6
-0.5
Islanders 1 Sabres 4 +4.6
+0.5
Maple Leafs 4 Sabres 6 +4.5
+0.5
Canucks 4 Sabres 1 -4.4
-0.5
Flames 3 Sabres 5 +4.3
+0.4
Blue Jackets 1 Sabres 3 +4.3
+0.4
Stars 2 Sabres 3 +4.2
+0.4
Islanders 4 Sabres 5 (ot)+4.0
+0.4
Sabres 3 Islanders 1 +3.9
+0.4
Sabres 5 Thrashers 4 +3.8
+0.4
Sabres 3 Bruins 2 +3.8
+0.4
Sabres 4 Canadiens 3 +3.7
+0.4
Sabres 4 Senators 3 +3.7
+0.4
Sabres 5 Penguins 1 +3.7
+0.4
Sabres 4 Panthers 0 +3.7
+0.4
Sabres 4 Avalanche 0 +3.6
+0.4
Sabres 7 Predators 4 +3.6
+0.4
Sabres 8 Red Wings 3 +3.5
+0.3
Sabres 5 Thrashers 1 +3.5
+0.4
Sabres 6 Kings 2 +3.3
+0.3
Sabres 5 Canucks 2 +3.3
+0.3
Sabres 7 Ducks 0 +3.3
+0.3
Sabres 3 Blue Jackets 2 +3.3
+0.3
Lightning 2 Sabres 3 (so)+2.6
+0.3
Blackhawks 8 Wild 7 (so)-2.4
*-0.2
Sabres 2 Blackhawks 3 (so)*-1.1
*-0.1
Panthers 3 Blackhawks 7 +0.8
Sharks 4 Penguins 5 (so)*-0.8
Canadiens 5 Flyers 1 +0.8
Canadiens 1 Wild 4 *+0.8
+0.1
Avalanche 2 Devils 3 (ot)*-0.8
Sharks 5 Flyers 1 +0.8
Panthers 6 Coyotes 0 -0.8
Kings 3 Flyers 2 +0.7
Islanders 3 Wild 2 *-0.7
Canucks 1 Canadiens 6 *-0.7
-0.1
Thrashers 3 Predators 2 *-0.6
Rangers 3 Flames 2 (so)*-0.6
Thrashers 6 Kings 4 *-0.6
Canucks 3 Rangers 4 (ot)*-0.6
Hurricanes 4 Sabres 3 (so)*-0.5
*-0.1
Senators 6 Lightning 3 *+0.5
Thrashers 3 Sabres 2 (ot)*-0.4
*-0.0
Oilers 4 Maple Leafs 5 *-0.4
-0.0
Capitals 4 Coyotes 5 (ot)*-0.4
Avalanche 4 Senators 7 *-0.4
Panthers 4 Ducks 1 *-0.3
Blue Jackets 3 Avalanche 5 *-0.3
Flames 2 Ducks 3 (so)*+0.3
Rangers 3 Sharks 2 *-0.2
Blues 4 Lightning 3 (ot)*-0.2
Maple Leafs 4 Blue Jackets 3 (so)*-0.1
Flames 3 Senators 2 +0.1
Stars 1 Senators 2 -0.1
Canadiens 4 Coyotes 3 (so)*-0.1
Oilers 2 Canadiens 4 -0.1
Blue Jackets 3 Maple Leafs 0 *+0.0
Maple Leafs 1 Rangers 3 +0.0
Lightning 2 Canadiens 4 -0.0
Blackhawks 4 Bruins 3 (ot)*-0.0
Ducks 4 Avalanche 1 *+0.0
Blue Jackets 3 Devils 4 (ot)*+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sabres vs Lightning+0.3*+0.1+0.4*-0.1*-0.1-0.6
+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.1*-0.0-0.2
Sabres vs Devils+0.2*+0.2*+0.0*-0.5*-0.3-0.8
+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.2
Devils vs Sabres-0.8*-0.1*-0.4*+0.3+0.2+0.2
-0.2*-0.0-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1
Sabres vs Stars+0.3+0.4*+0.2*-0.1*-0.0-0.5
+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.1*-0.0-0.2
Sabres vs Lightning+0.3*+0.2*+0.3*-0.1*-0.2-0.6
+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0-0.1-0.2
Sabres vs Maple Leafs+0.2+0.2*+0.1*-0.1*-0.1-0.7
+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.1-0.0-0.2
Devils vs Sabres-0.7*-0.1*-0.4*+0.2+0.2+0.2
-0.2-0.1*-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1
Senators vs Sabres-0.5*-0.0*-0.1*+0.3*+0.2+0.3
-0.2-0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Penguins vs Sabres-0.5*-0.1*-0.0*+0.2+0.3+0.4
-0.2-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Panthers vs Sabres-0.5*-0.0*+0.1*+0.2+0.3+0.2
-0.2*-0.0*-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1
Sabres vs Hurricanes+0.3+0.2*+0.2*-0.2*-0.2-0.6
+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0-0.0-0.2
Senators vs Sabres-0.5*-0.0-0.5*+0.3+0.3+0.3
-0.2-0.0-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1
Sabres vs Devils+0.1*+0.2*+0.1*+0.1*-0.2-0.7
+0.0+0.1+0.1*-0.1-0.1-0.2
Sabres vs Panthers+0.2*+0.2*+0.2*-0.1*+0.1-0.6
+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.1-0.1-0.2
Sabres vs Flyers+0.3+0.3*+0.1*-0.3*-0.0-0.5
+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.2
Sabres vs Capitals+0.3*+0.2*+0.2*-0.2*-0.2-0.5
+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.1-0.2
Flyers vs Sabres-0.5*+0.1*+0.1*+0.3+0.3+0.3
-0.2-0.0-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1
Sabres vs Flames+0.2*+0.1*+0.1*-0.0*-0.2-0.5
+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.0-0.2
Penguins vs Sabres-0.4*-0.2*+0.0*+0.2+0.3+0.3
-0.2-0.1-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Flyers vs Sabres-0.5*+0.0*+0.1*+0.1*+0.2+0.3
-0.2-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Sabres vs Hurricanes+0.2+0.3*+0.2*-0.1*-0.2-0.5
+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.1-0.0-0.2
Capitals vs Sabres-0.4*+0.1*-0.3*+0.2+0.3+0.2
-0.2-0.0*-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1
Canadiens vs Sabres-0.3*-0.0*+0.2*+0.2+0.4+0.4
-0.1-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.2
Thrashers vs Sabres-0.4*-0.0*-0.1*+0.3+0.3+0.3
-0.2*-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Sabres vs Rangers+0.3+0.3*+0.2*+0.1*-0.0-0.4
+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0-0.0-0.2
Maple Leafs vs Sabres-0.5*-0.1*+0.1*+0.3*+0.0+0.2
-0.2-0.1*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Sabres vs Flyers+0.2+0.2*+0.2*+0.1*-0.1-0.4
+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.2
Canadiens vs Sabres-0.3*+0.0*-0.0*+0.4+0.4+0.3
-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.2+0.1+0.2
Sabres vs Canadiens+0.3*+0.2*+0.1*+0.1*-0.0-0.3
+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Sabres finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
135-147In10015*
134405-3In901010*
133406-2In772313*
132385-5In762451*
131386-4In6613387*
130387-3In59239124*
129377-4In53443226*
128367-5In46450313*
127368-4In37558509*
126358-5In26767751*
125359-4In187751,079*
124349-5In136811,568*
1233410-4In106842,040*
1223310-5In658902,640*
1213210-6In459103,263*
1203211-5In2409403,901*
1193111-6In1309514,637*
1183112-5In1209625,100*
1173012-6In029535,786*
1163013-5In01093606,254*
1152913-6In0190906,385*
1142914-5In00871213,386*
2813-7In00851413,347*
1132814-6In008019106,555*
1122815-5In007326206,265*
1112715-6In006432403,435*
2614-8In06035402,411*
1102716-5In05340705,505*
1092616-6In0424612104,825*
1082617-5In304918204,089*
1072517-6In234625513,480*
1062518-5In0134234912,952*
1052418-699.7%063339184002,299*
1042419-599.442440257101,871*
1032319-697.721339321321,333*
1022320-596.01829352341,074*
1012220-689.904203630101789*
1002120-783.61143137151537*
992121-669.2182139282380*
982021-753.1021536415239*
972022-644.631032497193*
961922-741.0363245131100*
952024-425.3124423379*
941823-711.129513845*
931824-67.783154813*
921825-5Out584212*
911725-65.663356618*
901726-5Out50504*
891727-4Out1004*
51048-0Out1008
Total:99.2%21067187311000100,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Lottery seed
Sabres 1 Senators 3 +1.2
Sabres 2 Capitals 3 +1.2
Sabres 2 Penguins 3 +1.2
Sabres 0 Oilers 2 +1.2
Avalanche 6 Sabres 2 +1.0
Hurricanes 3 Sabres 2 +1.0
Lightning 5 Sabres 3 +1.0
Coyotes 5 Sabres 4 +1.0
Sharks 5 Sabres 2 +1.0
Blues 2 Sabres 3 (ot)-1.0
Maple Leafs 4 Sabres 6 -1.0
Canucks 4 Sabres 1 +1.0
Bruins 2 Sabres 4 -1.0
Blue Jackets 1 Sabres 3 -0.9
Flames 3 Sabres 5 -0.9
Islanders 1 Sabres 4 -0.9
Stars 2 Sabres 3 -0.9
Islanders 4 Sabres 5 (ot)-0.9
Sabres 4 Avalanche 0 -0.8
Sabres 3 Islanders 1 -0.8
Sabres 4 Canadiens 3 -0.8
Sabres 3 Bruins 2 -0.8
Sabres 7 Predators 4 -0.8
Sabres 5 Thrashers 4 -0.8
Sabres 4 Senators 3 -0.8
Sabres 4 Panthers 0 -0.7
Sabres 5 Penguins 1 -0.7
Sabres 8 Red Wings 3 -0.7
Sabres 7 Ducks 0 -0.7
Sabres 3 Blue Jackets 2 -0.7
Sabres 5 Thrashers 1 -0.7
Sabres 5 Canucks 2 -0.7
Sabres 6 Kings 2 -0.7
Lightning 2 Sabres 3 (so)*-0.6
Blackhawks 8 Wild 7 (so)+0.4
Sabres 2 Blackhawks 3 (so)+0.2
Canucks 2 Devils 3 (so)-0.2
Bruins 5 Blues 4 (so)-0.2
Flyers 5 Capitals 4 (ot)*+0.2
Capitals 2 Blue Jackets 1 (ot)*+0.2
Rangers 3 Flames 2 (so)+0.2
Predators 4 Rangers 3 (ot)*-0.2
Red Wings 3 Oilers 4 (so)*-0.2
Hurricanes 3 Flyers 2 (so)*+0.2
Coyotes 4 Penguins 5 (ot)*-0.2
Kings 3 Blues 4 (so)*+0.2
Stars 1 Capitals 2 (so)*-0.2
Canucks 4 Blue Jackets 5 (ot)*+0.1
Canadiens 1 Wild 4 -0.1
Hurricanes 4 Sabres 3 (so)*+0.1
Blues 0 Sharks 2 *-0.1
Lightning 3 Flames 4 (so)*-0.1
Maple Leafs 5 Blues 6 (so)+0.1
Canucks 1 Canadiens 6 +0.1
Thrashers 3 Sabres 2 (ot)+0.1
Wild 2 Penguins 1 *-0.1
Maple Leafs 1 Rangers 3 -0.0
Canadiens 7 Hurricanes 2 *+0.0
Wild 7 Blue Jackets 3 *-0.0
Blue Jackets 3 Devils 4 (ot)*-0.0
Hurricanes 5 Maple Leafs 0 -0.0
Hurricanes 2 Lightning 3 *-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sabres vs Flyers-0.3-0.2-0.2+0.2+0.2+0.5
Flyers vs Sabres+0.4+0.1+0.2-0.3-0.2-0.3
Penguins vs Sabres+0.4+0.1+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.3
Canadiens vs Sabres+0.3+0.0+0.0-0.4-0.3-0.4
Penguins vs Sabres+0.4+0.1+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.3
Sabres vs Flyers-0.2-0.2-0.2+0.2+0.1+0.4
Flyers vs Sabres+0.4+0.1*+0.0-0.2-0.2-0.3
Canadiens vs Sabres+0.3+0.0*+0.0-0.3-0.3-0.4
Senators vs Sabres+0.4+0.1+0.0-0.3-0.2-0.3
Devils vs Sabres+0.5+0.1+0.2-0.2-0.1-0.1
Sabres vs Canadiens-0.3-0.3-0.2*+0.0+0.1+0.3
Sabres vs Lightning-0.2-0.2-0.2+0.2+0.1+0.5
Senators vs Sabres+0.4+0.1+0.1-0.3-0.2-0.3
Sabres vs Rangers-0.2-0.3-0.2*+0.0+0.1+0.4
Maple Leafs vs Sabres+0.4+0.2*+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2
Sabres vs Hurricanes-0.2-0.2-0.2*+0.1+0.1+0.4
Thrashers vs Sabres+0.4+0.0*+0.0-0.3-0.2-0.2
Ducks vs Sabres+0.3*+0.0*+0.1-0.3-0.3-0.3
Capitals vs Sabres+0.4+0.1+0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2
Sabres vs Devils-0.1-0.1-0.1*+0.2+0.2+0.5
Panthers vs Sabres+0.4*+0.1+0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2
Sabres vs Stars-0.2-0.2-0.2+0.2+0.1+0.4
Sabres vs Capitals-0.2-0.2-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.4
Sabres vs Flames-0.2-0.2*-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.5
Sabres vs Lightning-0.2-0.2-0.2+0.1+0.1+0.4
Sabres vs Devils-0.1-0.1*-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.5
Sabres vs Maple Leafs-0.1-0.1-0.1*+0.1+0.1+0.5
Sabres vs Hurricanes-0.2-0.2-0.2*+0.1+0.1+0.4
Capitals vs Sabres+0.4+0.1*+0.0-0.3-0.2-0.2
Wild vs Sabres+0.3+0.0+0.0-0.3-0.3-0.3
Oilers vs Sabres+0.3*+0.0+0.0-0.2-0.3-0.3
Sabres vs Maple Leafs-0.1-0.2-0.2+0.1+0.1+0.5
Devils vs Sabres+0.5+0.2*+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.1
Sabres vs Panthers-0.1-0.2-0.2+0.1+0.1+0.5
Sabres vs Bruins-0.1-0.1-0.2*+0.1+0.2+0.5
Sabres vs Rangers-0.2-0.3-0.2+0.0*+0.0+0.3
Red Wings vs Sabres+0.4*+0.1+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2
Rangers vs Sabres+0.3*-0.0+0.0-0.2-0.3-0.3
Blackhawks vs Sabres+0.4+0.1+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
135-147100
134405-39010
133406-269823
132385-57624
131386-466133
130387-359239
129377-4512443
128367-5450450
127368-4361558
126358-5242767
125359-41717740
124349-51126810
1233410-48260840
1223310-542508810
1213210-631508910
1203211-5114009220
1193111-6112008951
1183112-5002008792
1173012-60010801630
1163013-5010722160
2912-701007321500
1152913-60006030800
1142914-50000046401211
1132814-600324817210
2915-4003347162100
1122815-5002251205200
1112715-60013502112400
1102716-506472119610
1092616-60339172992100
1082617-51291336126200
1072517-60237401411501
1062518-500133391519821
1052418-60613211281343000
1042419-541237331697010
1032319-6201243516161212
1022320-510822813222034
1012220-60402092722891
1002120-7101452725121420
992121-6183182317264
982021-70211317203691
972022-631082338162
961922-736626342041
952024-411232234163
941823-72929361644
931824-6883823158
921825-52533338
911725-6611222817116
901726-55050
891727-42575
51048-0100
Total:2010004324893421101000000