How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Stars 3 Sharks 5 -5.7
-0.6
Stars 1 Flames 2 -5.7
-0.6
Stars 2 Canadiens 3 -5.7
-0.6
Stars 2 Wild 4 -5.6
-0.6
Stars 4 Blues 6 -5.6
-0.6
Stars 2 Sabres 3 -5.5
-0.6
Wild 3 Stars 2 -5.2
-0.5
Blues 0 Stars 2 +5.1
+0.5
Oilers 3 Stars 1 -5.0
-0.5
Stars 1 Senators 2 -5.0
-0.5
Kings 5 Stars 2 -4.7
-0.5
Predators 2 Stars 4 +4.7
+0.5
Canucks 2 Stars 5 +4.7
+0.5
Wild 3 Stars 4 +4.6
+0.5
Predators 5 Stars 6 +4.6
+0.5
Penguins 6 Stars 1 -4.6
-0.5
Avalanche 1 Stars 4 +4.6
+0.5
Flyers 2 Stars 5 +4.5
+0.4
Blues 3 Stars 6 +4.5
+0.4
Blackhawks 4 Stars 6 +4.4
+0.4
Panthers 3 Stars 2 -4.4
-0.5
Sharks 1 Stars 3 +4.4
+0.5
Lightning 2 Stars 3 +4.0
+0.4
Stars 5 Coyotes 3 +4.0
+0.4
Stars 7 Panthers 3 +3.8
+0.4
Islanders 2 Stars 3 +3.8
+0.4
Stars 2 Rangers 1 (so)+3.6
+0.4
Senators 1 Stars 4 +3.6
+0.4
Stars 3 Devils 2 (ot)+3.5
+0.3
Stars 4 Penguins 2 +3.3
+0.4
Stars 4 Sharks 3 +3.3
+0.4
Stars 4 Flyers 3 (ot)+3.2
+0.3
Stars 3 Bruins 2 +3.2
+0.3
Stars 2 Thrashers 1 +3.0
+0.3
Red Wings 3 Coyotes 2 (so)-2.1
Stars 2 Flames 3 (so)*-2.0
*-0.2
Rangers 5 Kings 4 (ot)+1.4
Blackhawks 4 Bruins 3 (ot)-1.3
Maple Leafs 4 Blue Jackets 3 (so)*-1.2
Stars 2 Red Wings 3 (ot)*-1.2
*-0.1
Sharks 3 Hurricanes 4 +1.1
+0.1
Stars 1 Capitals 2 (so)*+1.1
*+0.1
Flyers 5 Blackhawks 3 +0.7
Canucks 4 Sabres 1 *-0.6
Capitals 2 Canucks 1 *+0.6
Sharks 5 Flyers 1 *-0.4
Devils 1 Blackhawks 2 *-0.4
Lightning 6 Coyotes 3 *+0.4
+0.1
Avalanche 2 Devils 3 (ot)*-0.3
Coyotes 5 Hurricanes 4 *-0.3
Kings 3 Flyers 2 *-0.3
*-0.0
Stars 5 Blackhawks 6 (so)*-0.2
-0.1
Capitals 2 Stars 1 (so)*-0.1
*-0.0
Kings 8 Devils 1 -0.1
Penguins 4 Sharks 0 +0.1
Sabres 7 Ducks 0 +0.1
Ducks 5 Penguins 7 +0.1
Coyotes 2 Rangers 1 -0.1
Canucks 4 Kings 1 +0.0
Canucks 0 Predators 1 *+0.0
Sharks 6 Flames 3 -0.0
Kings 5 Bruins 2 *-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Stars vs Blue Jackets+0.8+0.6+0.9*-0.1*-0.4-1.6
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.1-0.1-0.4
Stars vs Coyotes+0.4+0.8+0.6*-0.3*-0.1-1.4
+0.2+0.1+0.2*-0.1-0.1-0.4
Stars vs Blue Jackets+0.7+0.8+0.8*-0.2-0.6-1.4
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.1-0.1-0.4
Stars vs Red Wings+0.8+0.6*+0.5*-0.2*-0.2-1.4
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.0-0.1-0.4
Red Wings vs Stars-1.2*-0.2*-0.2+0.9+0.8+0.9
-0.3-0.1*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Blue Jackets vs Stars-1.2-0.5*-0.2+0.7+0.8+0.9
-0.3-0.1*-0.0+0.1+0.2+0.2
Stars vs Avalanche+0.5+0.4*+0.5*+0.2-0.6-1.6
+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.4
Coyotes vs Stars-1.2*+0.0*-0.2+0.9+0.4+0.6
-0.3-0.1*-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Blue Jackets vs Stars-1.3*-0.1*-0.0*+0.4+0.7+0.8
-0.3*-0.0*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Stars vs Islanders+0.4+0.6*+0.2*+0.1-0.7-1.5
+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.1-0.1-0.4
Blackhawks vs Stars-1.2*-0.2-0.8*+0.5+0.5+0.8
-0.3*-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Flames vs Stars-1.3*-0.0*-0.1*+0.4+0.5+0.7
-0.3*-0.1*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Red Wings vs Stars-1.1*-0.1*-0.2*+0.5+0.8+0.8
-0.3-0.1*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Kings vs Stars-0.7*-0.2*+0.2+1.2+0.6+0.7
-0.3*-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Stars vs Wild+0.7+0.9*+0.3*+0.2*-0.0-1.0
+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.3
Coyotes vs Stars-1.2*+0.0*-0.2*+0.3+0.7+0.6
-0.3*-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.2+0.2
Avalanche vs Stars-1.3*-0.4*-0.1*+0.4+0.6+0.6
-0.4-0.1*-0.1+0.1+0.2+0.2
Sharks vs Stars-0.9*-0.0*+0.2+0.9+0.8+0.8
-0.3*-0.0*-0.1+0.2+0.3+0.3
Stars vs Predators+0.4+0.5*+0.2*-0.1*-0.4-1.3
+0.1+0.1+0.2*-0.2-0.1-0.4
Devils vs Stars-1.3-0.5*+0.2*+0.4+0.4+0.5
-0.4-0.2*-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1
Stars vs Blues+0.6+0.6+0.7*+0.0*+0.0-1.1
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.1*-0.0-0.3
Sabres vs Stars-0.9*+0.1*+0.1+0.8+0.9+0.8
-0.3*+0.0*+0.0+0.2+0.3+0.2
Stars vs Avalanche+0.5+0.4*+0.1*-0.7-0.7-1.3
+0.1+0.1+0.2*-0.1-0.1-0.4
Stars vs Ducks+0.5+0.6+0.8*+0.0*+0.3-1.0
+0.3+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.4
Maple Leafs vs Stars-1.1*-0.2*-0.2+0.7+0.4+0.5
-0.3-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Stars vs Kings+0.6+0.6+0.7*-0.1*+0.2-1.0
+0.3+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.3
Stars vs Hurricanes+0.6+0.6*+0.2*-0.5*+0.1-1.1
+0.2+0.2+0.1*-0.1-0.1-0.3
Stars vs Oilers+0.6+0.4+0.7*+0.0*+0.0-1.0
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.1-0.1-0.3
Ducks vs Stars-0.9*+0.3*+0.1*+0.7+0.8+0.7
-0.3-0.0-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Oilers vs Stars-0.8*+0.3*-0.2*+0.5+0.9+0.6
-0.3-0.0-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.3
Stars vs Canucks+0.5*+0.3*+0.5*-0.3-0.6-1.1
+0.2+0.1+0.1*-0.1-0.1-0.4
Thrashers vs Stars-0.9*+0.2*-0.3*+0.7+0.5+0.7
-0.3+0.0*-0.0+0.3+0.2+0.2
Stars vs Predators+0.4*+0.3*+0.4*+0.3*-0.5-1.2
+0.1+0.1+0.2*-0.1-0.1-0.4
Stars vs Oilers+0.6+0.6*+0.3*+0.2*+0.0-1.0
+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.3
Canucks vs Stars-1.0*-0.2*-0.2*+0.3+0.5+0.6
-0.3-0.1*-0.1+0.1+0.2+0.2
Stars vs Ducks+0.6+0.6*+0.4-0.7*+0.2-0.9
+0.3+0.2+0.3-0.2-0.1-0.4
Ducks vs Stars-0.8*+0.1*+0.1*+0.5+0.7+0.7
-0.3*-0.0-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Flames vs Stars-0.9*-0.4*+0.2*+0.4+0.5+0.6
-0.3-0.1*-0.0+0.1+0.2+0.2
Stars vs Kings+0.6+0.4*+0.5*+0.0*-0.2-0.8
+0.3+0.2+0.3-0.1-0.1-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Stars finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
128-143In10046*
127366-4In95541*
126356-5In935284*
125346-6In9631159*
124347-5In88570257*
123348-4In83809339*
122338-5In7613101539*
121328-6In6813172770*
120329-5In57182321,197*
119319-6In462202841,615*
1183110-5In3522136602,130*
1173010-6In2323143902,738*
1163011-5In16231441513,375*
1152911-6In102024522203,981*
1142912-5In51524330404,679*
1132812-6In31223837805,254*
1122813-5In17232431315,847*
1112713-6In15224482023,771*
2612-8In04224472122,563*
1102714-5In022184529403,163*
2613-7In03116472843,400*
1092614-6In011124236704,021*
2513-8In11114336702,515*
1082514-7In11636431306,624*
1072515-6In00328481913,684*
2414-8In00327482012,511*
1062516-5In00221472825,872*
1052416-6100.0%01124637405,278*
1042417-599.80084143704,695*
1032317-699.3004315113104,079*
1022318-598.92225519103,494*
1012218-697.301165328302,833*
1002219-592.71104537702,262*
992119-688.80639431111,698*
982120-581.903314817101,336*
972020-672.80123492431,016*
961920-758.80013453191725*
951921-644.153941141442*
941922-531.0427442310345*
931822-625.122336309235*
921823-59.91041331331152*
911723-611.0112738222100*
901724-58.99274216745*
891523-82.731630321937*
881625-5Out10431924521*
871525-6Out203030101010*
861526-5Out11113333119*
851325-8Out33673*
831428-4Out1002*
51046-0Out1008
Total:97.7%661162323176200000100,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Lottery seed
Stars 3 Sharks 5 +1.2
Stars 1 Flames 2 +1.2
Stars 2 Sabres 3 +1.2
Stars 2 Canadiens 3 +1.2
Stars 2 Wild 4 +1.1
Stars 4 Blues 6 +1.1
Stars 1 Senators 2 +1.1
Wild 3 Stars 2 +1.1
Oilers 3 Stars 1 +1.1
Penguins 6 Stars 1 +1.0
Kings 5 Stars 2 +1.0
Blues 0 Stars 2 -1.0
Sharks 1 Stars 3 -1.0
Panthers 3 Stars 2 +1.0
Avalanche 1 Stars 4 -1.0
Predators 2 Stars 4 -0.9
Canucks 2 Stars 5 -0.9
Wild 3 Stars 4 -0.9
Flyers 2 Stars 5 -0.9
Blackhawks 4 Stars 6 -0.9
Predators 5 Stars 6 -0.9
Blues 3 Stars 6 -0.9
Lightning 2 Stars 3 -0.9
Islanders 2 Stars 3 -0.9
Senators 1 Stars 4 -0.8
Stars 5 Coyotes 3 -0.8
Stars 7 Panthers 3 -0.8
Stars 2 Rangers 1 (so)-0.8
Stars 4 Sharks 3 -0.8
Stars 4 Penguins 2 -0.7
Stars 3 Bruins 2 -0.7
Stars 3 Devils 2 (ot)-0.7
Stars 4 Flyers 3 (ot)-0.7
Stars 2 Thrashers 1 -0.7
Stars 2 Flames 3 (so)*+0.4
Avalanche 1 Rangers 2 (so)*+0.3
Maple Leafs 4 Blue Jackets 3 (so)*+0.3
Oilers 5 Red Wings 4 (so)+0.3
Rangers 5 Kings 4 (ot)*-0.3
Red Wings 3 Coyotes 2 (so)+0.2
Kings 3 Blues 4 (so)*+0.2
Blackhawks 4 Bruins 3 (ot)*+0.2
Sharks 3 Hurricanes 4 -0.2
Hurricanes 4 Oilers 5 (so)*+0.2
Oilers 4 Lightning 3 (so)*-0.2
Stars 2 Red Wings 3 (ot)+0.2
Capitals 4 Coyotes 5 (ot)*+0.2
Stars 5 Blackhawks 6 (so)*+0.2
Predators 2 Kings 3 (ot)*+0.2
Kings 8 Devils 1 +0.1
Sabres 7 Ducks 0 -0.1
Canucks 4 Kings 1 -0.1
Stars 1 Capitals 2 (so)-0.1
Capitals 2 Canucks 1 *-0.1
Oilers 4 Maple Leafs 5 *-0.1
Red Wings 5 Flyers 1 *-0.0
Oilers 2 Coyotes 4 *-0.0
Canucks 0 Bruins 4 -0.0
Flames 2 Islanders 1 -0.0
Capitals 2 Stars 1 (so)*+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Kings vs Stars+0.6*+0.1*+0.1-0.6-0.5-0.7
Stars vs Ducks-0.6-0.4-0.5+0.2+0.2+0.7
Ducks vs Stars+0.6*+0.0+0.1-0.6-0.5-0.6
Ducks vs Stars+0.6+0.1*+0.1-0.6-0.5-0.7
Stars vs Ducks-0.6-0.4-0.5+0.4+0.2+0.7
Stars vs Kings-0.5-0.4-0.4+0.2+0.2+0.7
Stars vs Kings-0.5-0.4-0.5+0.2+0.2+0.7
Sharks vs Stars+0.6*+0.0*+0.1-0.5-0.6-0.6
Stars vs Oilers-0.5-0.3-0.3*+0.1+0.1+0.7
Stars vs Blue Jackets-0.3-0.3-0.4*+0.1+0.2+0.7
Stars vs Red Wings-0.4-0.3-0.4*+0.1+0.2+0.7
Red Wings vs Stars+0.6+0.1*+0.0-0.4-0.5-0.5
Stars vs Oilers-0.5-0.4-0.4+0.2+0.1+0.7
Oilers vs Stars+0.6+0.1+0.1-0.4-0.5-0.6
Maple Leafs vs Stars+0.7+0.2*+0.3-0.4-0.3-0.3
Stars vs Predators-0.3-0.3-0.3+0.3+0.3+0.8
Thrashers vs Stars+0.6-0.0+0.1-0.5-0.5-0.4
Coyotes vs Stars+0.7*+0.1*+0.2-0.3-0.4-0.4
Stars vs Wild-0.5-0.5-0.4+0.1+0.1+0.6
Stars vs Predators-0.3-0.2-0.3*+0.1+0.3+0.8
Stars vs Avalanche-0.2-0.3-0.2*+0.2+0.2+0.8
Stars vs Avalanche-0.2-0.2-0.3*+0.3+0.3+0.8
Devils vs Stars+0.8+0.3*+0.1-0.3-0.2-0.3
Flames vs Stars+0.7*+0.1*+0.1-0.4-0.3-0.4
Sabres vs Stars+0.5+0.0*-0.0-0.4-0.5-0.5
Red Wings vs Stars+0.6+0.1*+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.4
Stars vs Canucks-0.3-0.3-0.2*+0.2+0.2+0.7
Stars vs Blue Jackets-0.3-0.3-0.3*+0.2+0.2+0.7
Blackhawks vs Stars+0.6+0.1+0.1-0.3-0.4-0.4
Stars vs Blues-0.4-0.4-0.4*+0.2*+0.1+0.6
Stars vs Coyotes-0.3-0.3-0.3*+0.2+0.3+0.7
Blue Jackets vs Stars+0.6+0.2*+0.1-0.3-0.4-0.4
Blue Jackets vs Stars+0.6*+0.1*+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.4
Stars vs Hurricanes-0.4-0.4-0.3+0.2+0.2+0.7
Avalanche vs Stars+0.7*+0.2*+0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3
Stars vs Maple Leafs-0.3-0.2-0.3+0.1+0.2+0.8
Stars vs Islanders-0.2-0.2-0.2*+0.2+0.3+0.8
Coyotes vs Stars+0.6*+0.1*+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.3
Flames vs Stars+0.6+0.2*+0.1-0.3-0.3-0.4
Rangers vs Stars+0.5-0.0*+0.1-0.5-0.5-0.6
Canucks vs Stars+0.6+0.2*+0.2-0.3-0.4-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
133-143100
131-132100
130385-3100
129375-47525
128365-53565
127366-427685
126356-5207352
125346-61878211
124347-578222600
123348-487553081
122338-527477911
121328-6266671612
120329-5057991932
119319-604681402264
1183110-5035617127960
1173010-62361812914900
1163011-516419127171501
1152911-60102182232221120
1142912-5511420182528240
1132812-63111201225343800
1122813-5107208243771301
1112713-61041042036112002
1102714-500210215301627140
1092614-6001111112320343700
1082514-71000615213761300
1072515-60000391936121911
1062516-500002417291826220
1052416-60011112224325400
1042417-5001814273212700
1032317-60004725312012110
1022318-52220243116410
1012218-601115163720820
1002219-510109362016610
992119-60064351825830
982120-503130123512510
972020-601022841131230
961920-700013342141971
951921-6523714251520
941922-5412610312071
931822-622342626162
921823-510323342091
911723-6112192432111
901724-59936291142
891523-8330243211
881625-551929191910
871525-61030203010
861627-31122223311
851325-83367
831428-4100
51046-0100
Total:0615106101591581063311000000