How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Maple Leafs 1 Rangers 2 -5.8
-0.6
Maple Leafs 2 Penguins 3 -5.8
-0.6
Maple Leafs 4 Sabres 6 -5.8
-0.6
Maple Leafs 1 Rangers 3 -5.7
-0.6
Maple Leafs 5 Capitals 8 -5.7
-0.6
Maple Leafs 1 Senators 5 -5.5
-0.6
Maple Leafs 0 Devils 1 -5.5
-0.6
Maple Leafs 1 Devils 4 -5.4
-0.6
Maple Leafs 0 Senators 2 -5.4
-0.6
Maple Leafs 0 Kings 3 -5.2
-0.6
Lightning 5 Maple Leafs 2 -5.1
-0.5
Rangers 4 Maple Leafs 0 -5.1
-0.5
Canadiens 1 Maple Leafs 2 +4.9
+0.5
Canadiens 4 Maple Leafs 1 -4.9
-0.5
Maple Leafs 1 Sharks 2 -4.8
-0.5
Hurricanes 4 Maple Leafs 1 -4.7
-0.5
Hurricanes 5 Maple Leafs 0 -4.7
-0.5
Senators 4 Maple Leafs 3 -4.7
-0.5
Islanders 4 Maple Leafs 2 -4.7
-0.5
Rangers 7 Maple Leafs 0 -4.6
-0.5
Coyotes 3 Maple Leafs 1 -4.6
-0.5
Blue Jackets 3 Maple Leafs 0 -4.5
-0.5
Canucks 5 Maple Leafs 3 -4.3
-0.5
Capitals 0 Maple Leafs 4 +4.3
+0.5
Flames 3 Maple Leafs 1 -4.3
-0.4
Oilers 4 Maple Leafs 5 +4.0
+0.4
Blackhawks 3 Maple Leafs 4 +3.8
+0.4
Maple Leafs 3 Panthers 2 +3.6
+0.4
Maple Leafs 6 Bruins 0 +3.5
+0.4
Maple Leafs 4 Canucks 3 (ot)+3.4
+0.3
Maple Leafs 5 Lightning 1 +3.2
+0.4
Maple Leafs 4 Hurricanes 3 (so)+3.2
*+0.3
Maple Leafs 3 Islanders 2 +3.2
+0.3
Maple Leafs 5 Coyotes 2 +3.1
+0.3
Maple Leafs 4 Blue Jackets 3 (so)+2.5
+0.3
Maple Leafs 5 Blues 6 (so)*-1.4
*-0.1
Devils 4 Maple Leafs 3 (so)*-1.3
*-0.1
Blues 2 Bruins 3 (so)*+1.0
Ducks 5 Senators 4 +0.7
+0.1
Ducks 4 Panthers 1 +0.7
Devils 2 Thrashers 3 *+0.6
Islanders 3 Wild 2 *-0.6
Blues 4 Senators 1 *+0.6
+0.1
Panthers 2 Blue Jackets 1 *-0.5
Bruins 3 Blue Jackets 0 *-0.5
Canadiens 1 Wild 4 *+0.5
Thrashers 3 Sabres 2 (ot)*+0.4
*+0.0
Coyotes 5 Hurricanes 4 *+0.3
Canadiens 3 Sharks 2 *-0.2
-0.0
Sabres 5 Canucks 2 *-0.2
Bruins 5 Canucks 4 *+0.2
Sharks 1 Thrashers 2 *+0.2
Penguins 7 Devils 2 *+0.2
Thrashers 7 Senators 2 *+0.2
Oilers 2 Canadiens 4 -0.0
Bruins 5 Blues 4 (so)-0.2
Canadiens 6 Penguins 5 (so)*-0.1
Kings 4 Canadiens 3 +0.1
Thrashers 3 Bruins 2 (ot)*-0.1
Avalanche 4 Senators 7 *-0.1
Bruins 1 Flames 5 +0.0
Coyotes 4 Senators 6 *-0.0
Red Wings 3 Blues 2 *+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Maple Leafs vs Canadiens+0.2+0.1+0.2+0.0+0.0-0.1
Sabres vs Maple Leafs-0.1*+0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Penguins vs Maple Leafs-0.1*+0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Flyers vs Maple LeafsOut*+0.0*-0.0*Out*+0.0+0.0
-0.1*+0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Wild vs Maple Leafs-0.1*+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.2+0.1
Capitals vs Maple Leafs-0.1*+0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Ducks vs Maple Leafs-0.1*+0.0+0.0+0.2+0.1+0.1
Islanders vs Maple Leafs-0.2*-0.0-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1
Kings vs Maple Leafs-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.2+0.1
Lightning vs Maple Leafs-0.1-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Maple Leafs vs Blackhawks+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0*-0.0-0.1
Maple Leafs vs Canadiens+0.2+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1
Maple Leafs vs Capitals+0.1+0.1+0.1*+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Maple Leafs vs Ducks+0.1+0.1+0.1*+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Maple Leafs vs Flyers+0.1+0.1+0.1*+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Maple Leafs vs Flyers+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0*-0.0-0.1
Maple Leafs vs Lightning+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0-0.0-0.1
Maple Leafs vs Oilers+0.1+0.1+0.1*+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Maple Leafs vs Penguins+0.1+0.1+0.1*+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Maple Leafs vs Sabres+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Maple Leafs vs Stars+0.1+0.1+0.1*+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Maple Leafs vs Thrashers+0.1+0.1+0.1*+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Maple Leafs vs Wild+0.1+0.1+0.1*+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Panthers vs Maple Leafs-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.2
Red Wings vs Maple Leafs-0.1*+0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Stars vs Maple Leafs-0.1+0.0*+0.0+0.2+0.1+0.1
Thrashers vs Maple Leafs-0.1*+0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Thrashers vs Maple Leafs-0.1+0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Maple Leafs vs Panthers+0.2+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.2
Panthers vs Maple Leafs-0.2-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.2
Maple Leafs vs Bruins+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.2
Bruins vs Maple Leafs-0.2-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.2
Bruins vs Maple Leafs-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.2
Devils vs Maple Leafs-0.1-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Avalanche vs Maple Leafs-0.1*-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Maple Leafs vs Avalanche+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0-0.0-0.1
Maple Leafs vs Predators+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0*-0.0-0.1
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings+0.1+0.1+0.1*+0.0*-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Maple Leafs finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
124480-0In2513638
99329-750.0%252525254*
983210-666.73333333*
97309-962.5135013258*
96299-1018.218364511*
953112-5Out29571414*
942911-84.2413671724*
932811-94.8519601742*
922913-61.4110474273*
912813-7Out850403116*
902713-8Out244532200*
892613-9Out337582294*
882614-8Out029646487*
872514-9Out0217080676*
862515-8Out1470151924*
852415-9Out012671921,254*
842416-8Out08622731,656*
832316-9Out4593342,179*
822317-8Out03504172,678*
812217-9Out24346103,324*
802218-8Out034501503,833*
792118-9Out02751224,437*
782119-8Out020522805,151*
772019-9Out014493605,631*
762020-8Out09454516,042*
751920-9Out063954106,288*
741921-8Out33461306,348*
731821-9Out22668406,378*
721822-8Out12073606,190*
711722-9Out11575906,006*
701723-8Out011751405,358*
691623-9Out07751804,785*
681624-8Out04692614,158*
671524-9Out02653123,592*
661525-8Out1573842,947*
651425-9Out1514262,342*
641426-8Out0434891,858*
631326-9Out03552131,426*
621327-8Out2755181,023*
611227-9Out205328772*
601228-8Out155233502*
591229-7Out94645340*
581129-8Out44254248*
571029-9Out23959137*
561131-6Out2366196*
551031-7Out2257457*
541032-6Out3217629*
53932-7Out99122*
52832-8Out14867*
51934-5Out13888*
28-50Out10014*
Total:0.0%0000001132647112100,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Lottery seed
Maple Leafs 4 Sabres 6 +1.3
Maple Leafs 1 Senators 5 +1.2
Maple Leafs 1 Rangers 2 +1.2
Maple Leafs 1 Rangers 3 +1.2
Maple Leafs 0 Senators 2 +1.2
Maple Leafs 0 Devils 1 +1.2
Maple Leafs 2 Penguins 3 +1.2
Maple Leafs 0 Kings 3 +1.2
Maple Leafs 5 Capitals 8 +1.2
Maple Leafs 1 Devils 4 +1.1
Senators 4 Maple Leafs 3 +1.1
Canadiens 4 Maple Leafs 1 +1.1
Lightning 5 Maple Leafs 2 +1.1
Rangers 4 Maple Leafs 0 +1.1
Maple Leafs 1 Sharks 2 +1.1
Canadiens 1 Maple Leafs 2 -1.1
Hurricanes 4 Maple Leafs 1 +1.0
Coyotes 3 Maple Leafs 1 +1.0
Canucks 5 Maple Leafs 3 +1.0
Islanders 4 Maple Leafs 2 +1.0
Rangers 7 Maple Leafs 0 +1.0
Hurricanes 5 Maple Leafs 0 +1.0
Blue Jackets 3 Maple Leafs 0 +1.0
Flames 3 Maple Leafs 1 +0.9
Capitals 0 Maple Leafs 4 -0.9
Oilers 4 Maple Leafs 5 -0.9
Blackhawks 3 Maple Leafs 4 -0.9
Maple Leafs 3 Panthers 2 -0.7
Maple Leafs 6 Bruins 0 -0.7
Maple Leafs 4 Canucks 3 (ot)-0.7
Maple Leafs 5 Lightning 1 -0.7
Maple Leafs 5 Coyotes 2 -0.7
Maple Leafs 4 Blue Jackets 3 (so)*-0.7
Maple Leafs 3 Islanders 2 -0.7
Maple Leafs 4 Hurricanes 3 (so)-0.6
Bruins 5 Blues 4 (so)+0.4
Maple Leafs 5 Blues 6 (so)*+0.4
Capitals 2 Stars 1 (so)*+0.2
Sabres 2 Blackhawks 3 (so)*-0.2
Thrashers 5 Canadiens 4 (so)-0.2
Red Wings 3 Canucks 2 (ot)*+0.2
Canadiens 6 Penguins 5 (so)*+0.2
Canadiens 1 Wild 4 -0.2
Predators 6 Blues 5 (so)-0.2
Sharks 2 Lightning 1 (so)*+0.2
Islanders 3 Canucks 2 (so)*+0.2
Devils 4 Maple Leafs 3 (so)*+0.1
Kings 4 Canadiens 3 -0.1
Flames 3 Senators 2 -0.1
Thrashers 3 Sabres 2 (ot)*-0.1
Bruins 3 Blue Jackets 0 +0.1
Canadiens 3 Red Wings 0 +0.1
Coyotes 4 Senators 6 +0.1
Hurricanes 2 Senators 3 +0.1
Kings 7 Rangers 3 *-0.0
Wild 3 Blues 5 *+0.0
Senators 3 Devils 2 +0.0
Lightning 6 Bruins 2 *-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Predators vs Maple Leafs+0.3*+0.0*+0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3
Maple Leafs vs Panthers-0.3-0.2-0.2*+0.1+0.1+0.4
Maple Leafs vs Predators-0.3-0.2-0.2+0.1+0.1+0.4
Panthers vs Maple Leafs+0.3*+0.0*+0.0-0.3-0.3-0.3
Bruins vs Maple Leafs+0.3+0.0*+0.0-0.2-0.3-0.3
Maple Leafs vs Bruins-0.3-0.2-0.2*+0.1+0.1+0.3
Maple Leafs vs Avalanche-0.2-0.2-0.2+0.1+0.1+0.4
Panthers vs Maple Leafs+0.3*+0.1*+0.0-0.3-0.3-0.3
Bruins vs Maple Leafs+0.3*+0.1*+0.1-0.3-0.2-0.3
Maple Leafs vs Canadiens-0.4-0.3-0.4*-0.1-0.1+0.2
Avalanche vs Maple Leafs+0.3+0.1*+0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3
Islanders vs Maple Leafs+0.3*+0.1*+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.3
Maple Leafs vs Thrashers-0.2-0.3-0.3*-0.0*-0.0+0.3
Kings vs Maple Leafs+0.2-0.1*-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.3
Wild vs Maple Leafs+0.2*-0.0*-0.0-0.3-0.4-0.3
Ducks vs Maple Leafs+0.2-0.0*-0.0-0.4-0.3-0.3
Flyers vs Maple Leafs+0.2*-0.0*+0.0-0.3-0.3-0.3
Maple Leafs vs Oilers-0.3-0.3-0.3*-0.0*-0.0+0.2
Maple Leafs vs Lightning-0.3-0.3-0.2*+0.0*+0.0+0.3
Lightning vs Maple Leafs+0.2*+0.0*-0.0-0.3-0.3-0.3
Maple Leafs vs Canadiens-0.4-0.3-0.3*-0.0-0.1+0.2
Maple Leafs vs Blackhawks-0.3-0.2-0.2*+0.1+0.1+0.3
Maple Leafs vs Sabres-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.0*-0.0+0.2
Stars vs Maple Leafs+0.2*-0.1*-0.0-0.3-0.3-0.3
Thrashers vs Maple Leafs+0.2*-0.1-0.0-0.3-0.3-0.3
Maple Leafs vs Capitals-0.3-0.2-0.3*+0.0*+0.0+0.3
Penguins vs Maple Leafs+0.2-0.0*-0.0-0.3-0.3-0.3
Maple Leafs vs Flyers-0.3-0.3-0.2+0.0*-0.0+0.2
Maple Leafs vs Flames-0.2-0.2-0.2*+0.1*+0.1+0.3
Maple Leafs vs Ducks-0.3-0.3-0.3*-0.0*+0.0+0.2
Devils vs Maple Leafs+0.3+0.1+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2
Maple Leafs vs Wild-0.3-0.3-0.2*-0.1*-0.0+0.2
Capitals vs Maple Leafs+0.2*-0.0*-0.0-0.3-0.3-0.3
Thrashers vs Maple Leafs+0.2*-0.0*-0.0-0.2-0.3-0.3
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings-0.3-0.2-0.2*-0.1*+0.1+0.3
Sabres vs Maple Leafs+0.2-0.1*-0.0-0.3-0.3-0.3
Maple Leafs vs Thrashers-0.2-0.3-0.3*+0.0*-0.0+0.2
Maple Leafs vs Stars-0.3-0.3-0.3*-0.0*-0.0+0.2
Senators vs Maple Leafs+0.2*-0.0*+0.0-0.2-0.3-0.3
Red Wings vs Maple Leafs+0.2*-0.0*-0.0-0.3-0.3-0.3
Flyers vs Maple Leafs+0.2*-0.0*-0.0-0.2-0.3-0.3
Maple Leafs vs Flyers-0.3-0.3-0.3*-0.0*+0.0+0.2
Penguins vs Maple Leafs+0.2*-0.0*-0.0-0.3-0.3-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
124480-0251363
99329-7252550
983210-6333333
97309-913501325
963010-81827459
953011-729292121
942911-84133333134
932811-9522640242
922913-611192936113
912813-71225322371
902713-87193130123
892613-921327312251
882614-806213228103
872514-9041229321840
862515-817213823810
852415-9141431341330
842416-81925362351
832316-9041834301210
822317-8021129381730
812217-901522392761
802218-8021535341210
792118-901928391930
782119-800521402760
772019-902153834100
762020-801931411810
751920-90523442520
741921-80218433340
731821-90111394170
721822-8063447121
711722-90426521710
701723-80219522430
691623-90112513150
681624-807453890
671524-9053743141
661525-8022847203
651425-912248273
641426-811445356
631326-901040428
621327-806354614
611227-93264823
601228-82224928
591128-91144541
581129-864649
571029-9114454
561131-6113661
551031-742572
541032-632472
53932-7991
52832-81486
51934-51388
28-50100
Total:000000000113591521251351