Tampa Bay Lightning Playoff Chances 2016-2017

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.2 to 96.9%

85 points 38 24-9

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Philadelphia 3 Carolina 1	+0.3
New Jersey 2 Columbus 1 (ot)	*-0.1		-0.0
Montreal 3 Ottawa 1	-0.1		+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Toronto vs Boston	+0.0-0.3-0.3-0.4-0.3+0.1		+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.0
Detroit vs Buffalo			-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

107	11	0		-	0	In		19.9	%	89	11	0														3,012
106	10	0		-	1	In		6.8		77	22	0														3,437
105	10	1		-	0	In		1.8		66	32	2														25,789
	9	0		-	2	In		1.3		66	32	2														2,234
104	9	1		-	1	In		0.2		48	46	6	0													33,348
	8	0		-	3	In		0.1		46	46	8	0													834
103	9	2		-	0	In		0.0		32	53	15	1	0												124,897
	8	1		-	2	In		0.0		30	52	17	1													19,382	*
102	8	2		-	1	In		No		16	50	30	4	0												143,600
	7	1		-	3	In		No		14	48	33	6	0												6,444	*
101	8	3		-	0	In		No		7	40	42	10	0	0	0										361,104
	7	2		-	2	In		No		6	37	44	13	0		0										72,873
	6	1		-	4	In		No		5	37	45	13	0												1,443	*
100	7	3		-	1	In		No		2	22	47	27	2	0	0										364,938
	6	2		-	3	In		No		1	18	47	31	3	0	0										21,616	*
99	7	4		-	0	In		No		0	11	43	40	6	0	0										688,675
	6	3		-	2	In		No		0	9	39	43	8	0	0										160,870
	5	2		-	4	In		No		0	8	37	45	10		0										4,044	*
98	6	4		-	1	In		No		0	3	24	52	20	0	1	0									607,899
	5	3		-	3	In		No		0	2	20	52	24	1	1	0									40,683
	4	2		-	5	In		No			2	20	51	24	0	2										471	*
97	6	5		-	0	In		No		0	1	13	50	32	2	2	0									917,232
	5	4		-	2	In		No		0	1	10	47	37	2	3	0									228,544
	4	3		-	4	In		No			0	8	44	41	2	4	0									6,223	*
96	5	5		-	1	100.0	%	No		0	0	3	31	48	6	11	0	0								690,099
	4	4		-	3	100.0		No			0	2	27	50	7	14	1	0								47,995
	3	3		-	5	In		No				1	25	47	9	17	1									599
95	5	6		-	0	100.0		No			0	1	19	48	12	18	1	0								868,008
	4	5		-	2	100.0		No			0	1	16	48	12	22	2	0								215,018
	3	4		-	4	In		No				0	13	47	12	25	3									5,866	*
94	4	6		-	1	99.8		No				0	5	33	18	37	7	0	0							541,135
	3	5		-	3	99.7		No				0	4	30	17	40	9	0	0							35,900	*
93	4	7		-	0	99.0		No				0	2	20	20	42	15	1	0							585,722
	3	6		-	2	98.6		No				0	1	17	18	44	18	1	0							134,883
	2	5		-	4	98.2		No					1	15	16	45	21	2	0							3,325	*
92	3	7		-	1	93.3		No					0	5	13	40	35	6	0	0						289,927
	2	6		-	3	91.9		No					0	4	10	39	39	8	1	0						16,724	*
91	3	8		-	0	81.9		No					0	2	9	29	43	16	2	0	0					273,166
	2	7		-	2	78.6		No					0	1	7	26	45	19	3	0						53,837
	1	6		-	4	73.8		No						1	5	25	44	22	4							981	*
90	2	8		-	1	54.9		No						0	2	11	41	34	10	1	0					101,354
	1	7		-	3	50.2		No						0	2	9	40	37	11	1	0					4,384	*
89	2	9		-	0	32.1		No						0	1	4	27	41	22	4	0	0				85,466
	1	8		-	2	28.1		No							1	3	24	41	25	5	0					12,722	*
88	1	9		-	1	10.7		No							0	1	10	35	38	15	1	0				20,804
	0	8		-	3	8.7		No								0	8	32	35	22	2					497
87	1	10		-	0	3.1		No							0	0	3	20	42	30	5	0				15,813
	0	9		-	2	2.3		No								0	2	20	38	34	6	0				1,288
86	0	10		-	1	0.5		No									0	7	31	47	14	1				1,917
85	0	11		-	0	0.1		No									0	2	17	48	29	3	0			1,918

Total:						96.9	%	0.0	%	2	7	14	24	23	7	14	6	2	1	0	0	0	0			7,848,940

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Montreal 3 Ottawa 1	-0.1
New Jersey 2 Columbus 1 (ot)	+0.1
Philadelphia 3 Carolina 1	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Edmonton vs Los Angeles	+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Detroit vs Buffalo	+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1
Dallas vs San Jose	+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1
Toronto vs Boston	-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0

What If

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

107	11	0		-	0	20	44	29	6	0
106	10	0		-	1	7	29	43	18	3	0
105	10	1		-	0	2	17	41	31	9	1	0
	9	0		-	2	1	13	42	31	11	1	0
104	9	1		-	1	0	5	24	40	25	6	1	0
	8	0		-	3	0	4	22	39	26	9	0	0
103	9	2		-	0	0	1	12	33	35	16	3	0	0
	8	1		-	2	0	1	10	30	36	18	4	0	0
102	8	2		-	1		0	2	14	33	33	15	3	0	0
	7	1		-	3		0	2	12	30	35	17	4	0	0
101	8	3		-	0		0	1	5	21	35	27	10	1	0	0
	7	2		-	2		0	0	4	18	34	29	12	2	0	0
	6	1		-	4			0	4	16	31	30	16	3	0
100	7	3		-	1			0	1	5	20	35	28	10	1	0	0
	6	2		-	3			0	0	4	17	34	30	12	2	0
99	7	4		-	0			0	0	1	9	26	35	22	6	1	0	0
	6	3		-	2			0	0	1	7	23	35	26	8	1	0	0
	5	2		-	4				0	1	5	20	34	29	10	1	0
98	6	4		-	1				0	0	1	8	25	37	22	6	1	0	0
	5	3		-	3				0	0	1	6	22	37	25	7	1	0	0
	4	2		-	5						1	5	24	35	24	10	1	0
97	6	5		-	0				0	0	0	2	12	31	33	17	4	1	0	0
	5	4		-	2				0	0	0	1	10	28	35	20	5	1	0	0
	4	3		-	4						0	1	7	26	35	23	7	1	0
96	5	5		-	1						0	0	2	12	29	33	18	5	1	0	0	0
	4	4		-	3							0	1	9	27	34	21	7	1	0	0	0
	3	3		-	5								1	7	21	36	26	8	1	0	0
95	5	6		-	0						0	0	0	3	15	30	31	16	4	1	0	0	0
	4	5		-	2							0	0	2	13	28	32	18	6	1	0	0	0
	3	4		-	4								0	2	10	26	32	22	7	1	0
94	4	6		-	1							0	0	0	3	13	28	31	19	6	1	0	0	0
	3	5		-	3								0	0	2	10	26	32	21	7	1	0	0	0
93	4	7		-	0									0	0	3	14	29	31	17	4	1	0	0	0
	3	6		-	2									0	0	3	12	28	32	19	5	1	0	0
	2	5		-	4										0	2	11	26	31	22	5	2	0	0
92	3	7		-	1									0	0	0	3	13	29	33	15	4	2	0	0
	2	6		-	3										0	0	2	11	27	35	18	5	3	0
91	3	8		-	0											0	0	4	16	33	29	7	9	2	0	0
	2	7		-	2											0	0	3	14	32	30	8	11	2	0	0
	1	6		-	4												0	2	14	29	29	8	14	4	0
90	2	8		-	1												0	0	4	18	33	9	25	10	1	0	0
	1	7		-	3												0	0	3	15	32	9	26	12	2	0
89	2	9		-	0													0	1	7	24	5	31	24	7	1	0	0
	1	8		-	2													0	1	5	22	5	30	26	9	1	0
88	1	9		-	1														0	1	10	2	23	36	22	6	0	0
	0	8		-	3															0	8	1	21	30	28	10	1	0
87	1	10		-	0															0	3	0	10	30	35	18	3	0
	0	9		-	2															0	2	0	10	27	36	20	4	0
86	0	10		-	1																0	0	3	14	36	33	12	1	0
85	0	11		-	0																0		0	5	22	39	26	7	0

Total:						0	0	1	1	3	5	7	10	12	12	12	10	9	7	5	3	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0