Tampa Bay Lightning Playoff Chances 2016-2017 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.3 to 97.3%

85 points 38 24-9

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Philadelphia 3 Carolina 1	+0.2
New Jersey 2 Columbus 1 (ot)	*+0.1				-0.1
Montreal 3 Ottawa 1	*-0.1				+0.1
Chicago 2 Colorado 4			+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Toronto vs Boston	-0.0-0.3-0.3-0.2-0.1+0.1				+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.0
Nashville vs Arizona			+0.0+0.0+0.0*-0.0-0.1-0.0
Detroit vs Buffalo					-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.0-0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

107	11	0		-	0	In		47.9	%	94	6															1,452
106	10	0		-	1	In		24.0		87	13	0														1,638
105	10	1		-	0	In		12.0		78	22	0														12,382
	9	0		-	2	In		10.4		76	24	0														912
104	9	1		-	1	In		3.3		63	35	2	0													14,170
	8	0		-	3	In		1.8		61	37	1														342
103	9	2		-	0	In		0.9		49	45	6	0													53,966
	8	1		-	2	In		0.4		46	47	7	0													7,602	*
102	8	2		-	1	In		0.1		29	54	15	1	0												56,759
	7	1		-	3	In		0.0		28	53	17	1													2,345	*
101	8	3		-	0	In		0.0		17	53	27	3	0												141,850
	7	2		-	2	In		0.0		16	51	30	4	0												26,454
	6	1		-	4	In		No		12	50	34	4													483	*
100	7	3		-	1	In		No		6	40	42	11	0	0	0										132,889
	6	2		-	3	In		No		5	38	43	13	1												7,366	*
99	7	4		-	0	In		No		2	26	49	21	2	0	0										250,550
	6	3		-	2	In		No		2	23	48	25	2	0	0										54,692
	5	2		-	4	In		No		2	21	45	28	3	0	0										1,266	*
98	6	4		-	1	In		No		0	10	40	40	9	0	0	0									205,822
	5	3		-	3	In		No		0	8	37	42	11	0	0										12,659
	4	2		-	5	In		No		1	10	32	39	16		1										134	*
97	6	5		-	0	In		No		0	4	28	48	18	1	1	0									309,565
	5	4		-	2	In		No		0	3	24	48	22	1	1	0									72,169
	4	3		-	4	In		No		0	3	21	48	24	2	1	0									1,834	*
96	5	5		-	1	In		No		0	1	10	40	38	6	6	0									218,434
	4	4		-	3	In		No			0	7	37	41	7	8	0									13,923
	3	3		-	5	In		No			1	8	36	43	5	7										162	*
95	5	6		-	0	100.0	%	No			0	4	28	44	12	12	1	0								274,223
	4	5		-	2	100.0		No			0	2	23	45	14	15	1	0								63,883
	3	4		-	4	In		No				2	19	46	14	18	1									1,625	*
94	4	6		-	1	99.8		No			0	0	8	34	22	29	5	0								160,225
	3	5		-	3	99.8		No				0	6	31	22	34	7	0								10,113
	2	4		-	5	In		No					10	21	15	47	7									110
93	4	7		-	0	99.0		No				0	3	22	26	36	12	1	0							172,875
	3	6		-	2	98.5		No				0	2	18	24	39	15	1	0							37,748
	2	5		-	4	98.3		No					2	13	21	43	18	2								893	*
92	3	7		-	1	92.6		No					0	6	17	37	32	7	1	0						80,858
	2	6		-	3	90.2		No					0	4	14	37	35	9	1	0						4,418	*
91	3	8		-	0	80.0		No					0	2	12	27	40	17	3	0						76,171
	2	7		-	2	77.0		No					0	1	9	25	41	19	3	0	0					14,062
	1	6		-	4	75.8		No						1	11	20	44	21	3	0						236	*
90	2	8		-	1	50.8		No						0	3	11	37	35	12	1	0					26,432
	1	7		-	3	48.6		No						0	2	9	37	36	13	2						1,110	*
89	2	9		-	0	28.1		No						0	1	4	23	40	25	6	0					22,370
	1	8		-	2	23.2		No							1	3	19	40	28	8	1					3,087	*
88	1	9		-	1	8.1		No							0	0	8	29	40	19	3	0				5,302	*
87	1	10		-	0	2.1		No								0	2	16	38	34	10	1				3,873
	0	9		-	2	1.9		No									2	13	43	29	12	1				312
86	0	10		-	1	Out		No										5	24	43	26	2				442
85	0	11		-	0	Out		No										1	11	39	41	8				532

Total:						97.3	%	0.1	%	5	13	19	22	17	7	10	5	2	1	0	0	0				2,562,720

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Montreal 3 Ottawa 1	-0.1
New Jersey 2 Columbus 1 (ot)	*+0.1
Chicago 2 Colorado 4	+0.0
Winnipeg 4 Minnesota 2	-0.0
Philadelphia 3 Carolina 1	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Detroit vs Buffalo	+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0+0.0-0.1
Edmonton vs Los Angeles	+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0+0.0-0.1
Dallas vs San Jose	+0.1+0.1+0.0*+0.0-0.0-0.1
Toronto vs Boston	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

107	11	0		-	0	48	41	10	1
106	10	0		-	1	24	46	26	4	0
105	10	1		-	0	12	37	36	12	2	0
	9	0		-	2	10	35	37	15	3	0
104	9	1		-	1	3	21	39	28	8	1	0
	8	0		-	3	2	19	39	30	9	1
103	9	2		-	0	1	9	30	37	19	4	0	0
	8	1		-	2	0	8	28	38	21	5	0	0
102	8	2		-	1	0	2	12	32	34	16	3	0	0
	7	1		-	3	0	1	11	31	33	18	4	1
101	8	3		-	0	0	0	4	19	34	29	11	2	0	0
	7	2		-	2	0	0	3	17	33	30	13	3	0
	6	1		-	4			2	12	34	30	16	4	1
100	7	3		-	1		0	0	5	19	33	29	12	2	0	0
	6	2		-	3		0	0	4	16	31	30	14	3	0
99	7	4		-	0		0	0	1	7	23	34	25	9	1	0	0
	6	3		-	2			0	1	6	20	33	27	11	2	0	0
	5	2		-	4				1	5	17	30	29	14	4	0
98	6	4		-	1			0	0	1	6	20	33	27	10	2	0	0
	5	3		-	3				0	1	5	18	33	28	13	3	0	0
	4	2		-	5						4	17	31	31	13	3	1
97	6	5		-	0				0	0	1	8	23	33	24	9	2	0	0
	5	4		-	2				0	0	1	6	20	33	27	11	2	0	0
	4	3		-	4					0	0	5	17	33	28	13	3	0	0
96	5	5		-	1					0	0	1	6	20	32	27	12	3	0	0	0
	4	4		-	3						0	0	4	17	31	30	15	4	1	0
	3	3		-	5							1	3	17	33	28	14	4	1
95	5	6		-	0						0	0	1	7	20	31	26	12	3	0	0	0	0
	4	5		-	2						0	0	1	5	17	31	28	14	4	0	0	0
	3	4		-	4								0	3	15	28	33	16	4	1	0
94	4	6		-	1								0	1	5	16	30	29	15	4	0	0	0
	3	5		-	3								0	0	3	14	28	31	18	5	1	0	0
	2	4		-	5										4	12	28	25	19	10	2
93	4	7		-	0								0	0	1	5	17	30	29	14	3	1	0	0
	3	6		-	2									0	1	4	15	29	30	16	4	1	0	0
	2	5		-	4											2	12	28	31	19	5	1	1
92	3	7		-	1										0	0	3	14	29	31	14	4	3	0	0
	2	6		-	3										0	0	2	12	28	33	15	5	4	0	0
91	3	8		-	0											0	1	4	17	32	27	7	11	2	0
	2	7		-	2											0	0	3	15	31	28	8	12	3	0
	1	6		-	4													3	14	29	30	7	15	2	1
90	2	8		-	1												0	0	4	17	30	9	26	12	2	0	0
	1	7		-	3													0	3	14	32	8	26	13	3	0
89	2	9		-	0												0	0	1	6	21	4	29	26	10	2	0	0
	1	8		-	2														0	5	18	4	29	29	12	2	0
88	1	9		-	1													0	0	1	7	1	17	34	27	11	2	0
87	1	10		-	0															0	2	0	7	23	35	25	7	1	0
	0	9		-	2																2		5	25	36	24	7	1
86	0	10		-	1																		1	8	29	36	22	5
85	0	11		-	0																			2	11	30	37	16	4

Total:						0	1	2	3	5	8	9	11	11	11	10	8	7	5	4	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0