Ottawa Senators Playoff Chances 2016-2017

Lost to Montreal 1-3, playoff odds down 1.2 to 97.2%

84 points 37 24-10

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Montreal 3 Ottawa 1	-1.2		-0.5
Philadelphia 3 Carolina 1	+0.2		-0.0
New Jersey 2 Columbus 1 (ot)			-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Toronto vs Boston	*-0.0-0.3-0.3-0.2-0.3+0.1		+0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1+0.0
Detroit vs Buffalo			-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Ottawa finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

106	11	0		-	0	In		3.5	%	86	14	0	0													9,841
105	10	0		-	1	In		0.8		71	27	1	0													10,081
104	10	1		-	0	In		0.1		56	40	4	0													75,908
	9	0		-	2	In		0.2		53	42	5	0													5,063
103	9	1		-	1	In		0.0		35	51	14	1	0												75,810
	8	0		-	3	In		No		32	50	17	1													1,459
102	9	2		-	0	In		0.0		19	51	26	3	0												284,976
	8	1		-	2	In		0.0		17	50	29	4	0												34,188
	7	0		-	4	In		No		13	50	31	6	0												322
101	8	2		-	1	In		No		7	39	42	11	0		0										255,656
	7	1		-	3	In		No		6	36	43	14	1												9,012	*
100	8	3		-	0	In		No		2	25	48	23	2	0	0										643,476
	7	2		-	2	In		No		2	21	47	27	2	0	0										101,672
	6	1		-	4	In		No		1	17	47	31	3		0										1,520	*
99	7	3		-	1	In		No		0	10	41	42	7	0	0										509,710
	6	2		-	3	In		No		0	8	37	45	10	0	0										23,596	*
98	7	4		-	0	In		No		0	3	27	52	17	0	1	0									960,743
	6	3		-	2	In		No		0	2	23	53	20	0	1	0									176,086
	5	2		-	4	In		No			2	21	53	23	1	1										3,534	*
97	6	4		-	1	In		No		0	1	11	49	35	2	3	0									663,079
	5	3		-	3	In		No		0	0	9	46	38	2	3	0									34,594
	4	2		-	5	In		No				9	44	40	3	5										351
96	6	5		-	0	100.0	%	No		0	0	4	36	46	6	8	0	0								1,002,120
	5	4		-	2	100.0		No			0	3	31	48	7	10	0	0								195,134
	4	3		-	4	In		No			0	2	30	48	7	12	1									4,248	*
95	5	5		-	1	100.0		No			0	1	17	48	13	19	1	0								589,442
	4	4		-	3	100.0		No			0	0	14	48	14	22	2	0								31,598
	3	3		-	5	In		No				1	13	47	12	24	3									327
94	5	6		-	0	99.8		No				0	7	35	19	33	6	0	0							741,550
	4	5		-	2	99.8		No				0	5	32	19	36	7	0	0							143,816
	3	4		-	4	99.6		No				0	4	30	19	38	9	0								3,072	*
93	4	6		-	1	98.7		No				0	1	18	21	42	16	1	0							360,400
	3	5		-	3	98.3		No					1	16	20	44	18	2	0							19,091	*
92	4	7		-	0	93.8		No				0	0	6	16	40	31	6	0	0						388,625
	3	6		-	2	92.6		No					0	5	14	39	34	7	0	0						69,718
	2	5		-	4	89.9		No					0	4	13	38	34	9	1							1,326	*
91	3	7		-	1	80.0		No					0	1	9	27	42	18	2	0	0					151,004
	2	6		-	3	77.8		No						1	8	25	43	19	3	0						6,859	*
90	3	8		-	0	56.4		No					0	0	4	13	40	33	9	1	0					142,589
	2	7		-	2	53.0		No						0	3	11	39	36	10	1	0					22,036
	1	6		-	4	45.6		No							2	7	37	43	11	0						316	*
89	2	8		-	1	30.5		No						0	1	4	25	42	23	4	0					41,258
	1	7		-	3	26.9		No							1	3	23	43	24	6	0					1,459	*
88	2	9		-	0	11.5		No							0	1	10	36	38	13	1	0				34,823
	1	8		-	2	10.9		No							0	1	10	34	39	14	2					3,884	*
87	1	9		-	1	3.2		No							0	0	3	20	42	28	7	0				6,773	*
86	1	10		-	0	0.5		No								0	0	8	34	41	16	1				4,997
	0	9		-	2	0.9		No									1	6	33	41	18	2				350
85	0	10		-	1	Out		No										3	16	44	34	3				451
84	0	11		-	0	Out		No										0	5	36	49	9				997

Total:						97.2	%	0.0	%	2	8	16	25	22	7	12	5	2	1	0	0	0				7,848,940

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Montreal 3 Ottawa 1	+1.0
New Jersey 2 Columbus 1 (ot)	+0.1
Chicago 2 Colorado 4	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Detroit vs Buffalo	+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1
Edmonton vs Los Angeles	+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1
Dallas vs San Jose	+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1
Toronto vs Boston	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

106	11	0		-	0	3	24	47	22	3	0
105	10	0		-	1	1	12	41	34	10	1	0
104	10	1		-	0	0	3	24	41	25	6	1	0
	9	0		-	2	0	3	23	40	26	7	1
103	9	1		-	1	0	1	10	31	36	17	4	0	0
	8	0		-	3		1	9	30	34	20	5	0
102	9	2		-	0	0	0	2	15	33	32	14	3	0	0
	8	1		-	2	0	0	2	13	32	33	16	3	0	0
	7	0		-	4			2	10	35	30	20	4
101	8	2		-	1		0	0	5	19	34	29	11	2	0	0
	7	1		-	3			0	4	17	32	30	13	2	0	0
100	8	3		-	0			0	1	6	22	35	27	9	1	0	0
	7	2		-	2			0	1	5	19	34	29	11	1	0	0
	6	1		-	4				0	4	17	31	33	13	2
99	7	3		-	1			0	0	1	8	24	35	24	7	1	0	0
	6	2		-	3			0	0	1	6	22	35	27	9	1	0
98	7	4		-	0			0	0	0	1	9	27	37	20	5	1	0	0
	6	3		-	2				0	0	1	7	24	37	23	6	1	0	0
	5	2		-	4					0	1	6	23	36	25	8	1	0
97	6	4		-	1					0	0	2	10	29	34	19	5	1	0	0
	5	3		-	3						0	1	9	27	34	22	7	1	0	0
	4	2		-	5								7	28	30	22	10	2
96	6	5		-	0						0	0	2	13	30	32	17	5	1	0	0	0
	5	4		-	2						0	0	2	11	27	33	20	6	1	0	0	0
	4	3		-	4							0	1	10	25	32	22	8	1	0	0
95	5	5		-	1							0	0	3	12	28	32	19	6	1	0	0	0
	4	4		-	3							0	0	2	10	26	32	22	7	1	0	0
	3	3		-	5									1	13	26	28	23	9	2
94	5	6		-	0								0	0	3	13	28	31	18	5	1	0	0	0
	4	5		-	2								0	0	2	10	25	33	21	7	1	0	0	0
	3	4		-	4									0	1	8	24	33	23	8	1	0	0
93	4	6		-	1								0	0	0	3	12	28	33	19	5	1	0	0
	3	5		-	3									0	0	2	10	26	34	22	6	1	0	0
92	4	7		-	0										0	0	3	13	29	33	16	3	3	0	0
	3	6		-	2										0	0	2	11	28	34	18	4	3	0	0	0
	2	5		-	4										0		2	8	26	35	18	4	5	1	0
91	3	7		-	1											0	0	3	14	32	30	6	11	2	0	0
	2	6		-	3												0	2	12	32	31	6	13	3	0
90	3	8		-	0												0	0	4	18	34	6	25	10	2	0	0
	2	7		-	2												0	0	3	16	33	5	27	13	2	0	0
	1	6		-	4														2	12	32	5	32	14	3
89	2	8		-	1												0	0	1	6	23	3	31	26	9	1	0
	1	7		-	3														1	5	22	2	30	29	10	2	0
88	2	9		-	0														0	1	10	1	23	36	22	6	1	0
	1	8		-	2														0	1	10	0	19	37	25	7	1	0
87	1	9		-	1															0	3	0	9	29	36	18	4	0
86	1	10		-	0															0	0		3	16	34	32	13	2	0
	0	9		-	2																1		1	11	33	33	16	4	0
85	0	10		-	1																		1	4	20	36	29	9	1
84	0	11		-	0																			1	7	28	43	18	3

Total:						0	0	1	2	3	5	8	11	13	12	11	10	8	6	5	3	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0