Montreal Canadiens Playoff Chances 2015-2016

Beat Blackhawks 4-3, playoff odds up 1.4 to 2.9%

63 points 28 29-7

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Canadiens 4 Blackhawks 3	+1.1		+0.4
Devils 2 Oilers 3	+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Blue Jackets vs Wild	-0.1-0.2-0.1*+0.1+0.1+0.3
Lightning vs Ducks	-0.1-0.1-0.1*+0.1+0.1+0.3		-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1
Rangers vs Blackhawks	-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1		-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1
Penguins vs Flyers	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1
Senators vs Red Wings			-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.0*+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Canadiens finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Pres	Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

99	18	0		-	0	In		No		0	19	16	59	2	5										629
98	17	0		-	1	In		No			5	15	66	6	8										62
97	17	1		-	0	In		No			2	6	58	11	22	1									375	*
96	16	1		-	1	In		No			1	4	40	19	33	2									1,213	*
95	15	1		-	2	99.4	%	No			0	2	26	22	41	9	1								3,951	*
94	15	2		-	1	97.2		No			0	1	13	21	44	18	3	0							9,812	*
93	14	2		-	2	90.6		No				0	5	17	39	30	8	1	0	0					23,035	*
92	14	3		-	1	76.0		No				0	1	10	28	37	19	4	1	0	0				45,842	*
91	13	3		-	2	54.1		No				0	0	5	15	34	30	13	3	0	0				87,157	*
90	13	4		-	1	30.8		No				0	0	2	6	23	34	25	9	1	0				145,573	*
89	12	4		-	2	13.8		No					0	1	2	11	28	33	19	5	1	0			232,806	*
88	12	5		-	1	5.3		No					0	0	0	5	18	33	30	12	2	0	0		166,981
	11	4		-	3	3.5		No						0	0	3	15	31	32	16	3	0	0		165,190	*
87	11	5		-	2	1.1		No						0	0	1	7	23	36	26	7	1	0		258,803
	10	4		-	4	1.0		No						0	0	1	7	22	35	27	8	1	0		195,377	*
86	11	6		-	1	0.2		No						0	0	0	2	13	32	35	16	2	0		267,775
	10	5		-	3	0.1		No						0	0	0	2	10	29	37	19	3	0		297,040	*
85	10	6		-	2	0.0		No						0	0	0	0	4	20	39	29	6	0		376,599
	9	5		-	4	0.0		No						0	0	0	0	3	17	38	32	8	1		154,886
	11	7		-	0	0.0		No						0		0	1	5	21	39	27	6	0		138,910	*
84	10	7		-	1	0.0		No								0	0	2	11	34	39	13	1		334,665
	9	6		-	3	0.0		No								0	0	1	9	32	41	16	2		394,718	*
83	9	7		-	2	Out		No									0	0	4	23	44	25	4		424,473
	8	6		-	4	Out		No									0	0	3	20	44	27	5	0	181,135
	10	8		-	0	Out		No									0	0	5	24	44	24	4		154,107	*
82	9	8		-	1	Out		No									0	0	1	14	41	35	9	0	330,336
	8	7		-	3	Out		No										0	1	12	40	37	10		400,187	*
81	8	8		-	2	Out		No										0	0	6	33	43	17	0	373,870
	7	7		-	4	Out		No										0	0	6	32	44	18	0	296,308	*
80	8	9		-	1	Out		No										0	0	3	23	47	27	0	257,323
	7	8		-	3	Out		No										0	0	2	21	47	30	0	309,419	*
79	7	9		-	2	Out		No											0	1	14	45	40	0	256,563
	6	8		-	4	Out		No										0	0	1	13	44	42	0	201,297	*
78	7	10		-	1	Out		No											0	0	8	39	52	0	159,409
	6	9		-	3	Out		No											0	0	7	37	55	0	182,483	*
77	6	10		-	2	Out		No												0	4	30	66	0	243,897	*
76	6	11		-	1	Out		No												0	2	22	76	0	159,280	*
75	5	11		-	2	Out		No												0	1	14	84	1	100,445	*
74	5	12		-	1	Out		No													0	9	89	2	56,588	*
73	4	12		-	2	Out		No													0	5	91	4	30,947	*
72	4	13		-	1	Out		No													0	3	91	6	15,172	*
71	3	13		-	2	Out		No														1	88	11	7,018	*
70	3	14		-	1	Out		No													0	0	84	16	2,918	*
69	2	14		-	2	Out		No														0	79	21	1,196	*
68	2	15		-	1	Out		No															70	30	419	*
67	1	15		-	2	Out		No															55	45	121	*
66	1	16		-	1	Out		No															52	48	27	*
65	1	17		-	0	Out		No															50	50	6	*
64	0	17		-	1	Out		No																100	1
63	0	18		-	0	Out		No															25	75	616

Total:						2.9	%	No		0	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	6	10	16	23	22	17	0	7,446,960

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Canadiens 4 Blackhawks 3	-0.6

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Rangers vs Blackhawks	+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1
Senators vs Red Wings	+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

99	18	0		-	0				0		19	0	15	29	29	2		5	0
98	17	0		-	1						5		15	15	52	6		6	2
97	17	1		-	0						2		6	10	48	11	0	16	6	1
96	16	1		-	1						1		4	4	36	18	1	23	11	2
95	15	1		-	2						0		2	1	25	19	3	21	19	9		1
94	15	2		-	1						0		1	0	12	17	5	18	27	18	0	3	0
93	14	2		-	2								0	0	5	12	5	11	28	29	0	8	1	0	0
92	14	3		-	1								0	0	1	6	4	5	22	36	1	19	4	1	0	0
91	13	3		-	2								0		0	2	3	2	13	31	3	30	13	3	0	0
90	13	4		-	1								0		0	1	1	0	5	19	3	34	25	9	1	0
89	12	4		-	2										0	0	1	0	2	8	3	28	33	20	6	1	0
88	12	5		-	1										0	0	0	0	0	3	2	17	33	30	13	2	0	0
	11	4		-	3											0	0	0	0	2	1	14	31	32	16	3	0	0
87	11	5		-	2											0	0		0	0	1	7	22	35	26	8	1	0	0
	10	4		-	4											0	0		0	0	1	6	21	35	27	9	1	0
86	11	6		-	1												0		0	0	0	2	12	30	35	17	3	0	0
	10	5		-	3												0		0	0	0	1	9	27	37	21	4	0	0
85	10	6		-	2												0		0	0	0	0	4	17	36	31	10	1	0
	9	5		-	4												0		0	0	0	0	3	15	35	34	12	2	0	0
	11	7		-	0												0			0	0	1	4	19	37	29	9	1	0
84	10	7		-	1																0	0	1	9	28	38	19	4	0	0
	9	6		-	3																0	0	1	6	26	39	23	5	0	0
83	9	7		-	2																	0	0	2	16	37	33	11	1	0
	8	6		-	4																	0	0	2	13	35	35	13	2	0
	10	8		-	0																	0	0	3	17	37	31	10	1	0
82	9	8		-	1																	0	0	1	8	28	39	21	4	0	0
	8	7		-	3																		0	0	6	25	40	24	5	0	0
81	8	8		-	2																		0	0	2	16	37	33	11	1	0
	7	7		-	4																			0	2	13	35	36	13	1	0
80	8	9		-	1																		0	0	1	8	28	40	20	3	0	0
	7	8		-	3																			0	0	6	26	40	23	4	0	0
79	7	9		-	2																			0	0	2	16	38	34	9	1	0	0
	6	8		-	4																			0	0	2	15	38	34	9	1	0
78	7	10		-	1																				0	1	8	30	41	17	3	0	0
	6	9		-	3																				0	0	7	27	42	20	4	0	0
77	6	10		-	2																				0	0	3	17	41	30	9	1	0	0
76	6	11		-	1																				0	0	1	8	31	38	18	4	0	0
75	5	11		-	2																					0	0	3	19	38	29	10	1	0
74	5	12		-	1																						0	1	9	29	36	20	5	0	0
73	4	12		-	2																							0	3	17	35	31	12	2	0
72	4	13		-	1																							0	1	8	26	37	23	5	0
71	3	13		-	2																								0	3	15	34	34	13	1
70	3	14		-	1																									1	7	26	40	22	3
69	2	14		-	2																								0	0	3	14	40	37	6
68	2	15		-	1																										1	8	31	44	16
67	1	15		-	2																											2	21	45	31
66	1	16		-	1																												11	56	33
65	1	17		-	0																													50	50
64	0	17		-	1																														100
63	0	18		-	0																												1	27	72

Total:									0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	3	6	9	14	17	17	14	10	4	2	1	0	0	0