Pittsburgh Penguins Playoff Chances 2015-2016

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.2 to 97%

73 points 34 22-5

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Devils 2 Oilers 3	+0.1		+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Penguins vs Flyers	+0.9+0.9+0.7-0.7-0.6-2.5		+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.4
Blue Jackets vs Wild	-0.1-0.1-0.1*+0.1+0.1+0.3		-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1
Lightning vs Ducks	-0.1-0.1-0.2+0.1*+0.0+0.2
Rangers vs Blackhawks	-0.1-0.2-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Penguins finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

115	21	0		-	0	In		2.9	%	63	12	25														630
114	20	0		-	1	In		1.0		40	13	48														96
113	20	1		-	0	In		No		36	17	47														436	*
112	19	1		-	1	In		No		22	18	61	0													1,366	*
111	18	1		-	2	In		No		14	16	69	0													4,329	*
110	18	2		-	1	In		No		8	14	78	1													10,157	*
109	17	2		-	2	In		No		4	11	83	2													23,107	*
108	17	3		-	1	In		No		2	8	87	4	0												44,237	*
107	16	3		-	2	In		No		1	5	87	7	0												82,535	*
106	16	4		-	1	In		No		0	3	84	12	0												133,934	*
105	15	4		-	2	In		No		0	2	78	20	0												210,506	*
104	15	5		-	1	In		No		0	1	71	27	1												150,469
	14	4		-	3	In		No		0	1	69	30	1												147,739	*
103	14	5		-	2	In		No		0	1	59	39	2	0	0										406,914	*
102	14	6		-	1	In		No		0	0	49	48	3	0	0										238,110
	13	5		-	3	In		No			0	46	50	4	0	0										267,162	*
101	13	6		-	2	In		No		0	0	36	58	6	0	0										336,852
	12	5		-	4	In		No			0	35	59	6	0	0										266,273	*
100	13	7		-	1	In		No			0	26	65	9	0	0										297,849
	12	6		-	3	In		No			0	24	65	10	0	0										365,695	*
99	12	7		-	2	In		No			0	16	68	14	1	0	0									389,201
	11	6		-	4	In		No			0	15	68	15	1	0	0									316,744	*
98	11	7		-	3	100.0	%	No			0	8	66	21	4	1	0	0								311,543
	12	8		-	1	In		No			0	9	67	20	4	1	0									385,964	*
97	11	8		-	2	100.0		No			0	4	61	25	8	2	0	0								361,798
	10	7		-	4	In		No			0	4	59	25	9	3	0									300,345	*
96	10	8		-	3	100.0		No			0	1	48	27	17	6	0	0								263,139
	11	9		-	1	100.0		No			0	1	50	26	16	6	0	0								323,779	*
95	10	9		-	2	99.9		No			0	0	38	23	26	11	1	0	0							272,748
	9	8		-	4	99.9		No			0	0	36	23	27	12	2	0	0							228,012	*
94	9	9		-	3	99.3		No			0	0	23	16	36	19	5	1	0	0						178,901
	10	10		-	1	99.4		No			0	0	25	17	35	17	5	1	0	0						219,581	*
93	9	10		-	2	97.2		No				0	14	9	39	23	12	3	0	0						306,266	*
92	8	10		-	3	90.3		No				0	7	4	35	23	22	8	1	0	0					218,859	*
91	8	11		-	2	76.0		No					3	1	26	18	29	18	5	1	0	0				150,997	*
90	8	12		-	1	53.9		No					1	0	15	10	27	29	14	3	0	0				97,509	*
89	7	12		-	2	30.9		No					0	0	8	4	19	33	26	9	1	0	0			60,594	*
88	7	13		-	1	13.4		No					0	0	3	1	9	27	34	20	5	0	0			34,450	*
87	6	13		-	2	4.4		No					0		1	0	3	15	33	32	13	2	0	0		19,080	*
86	6	14		-	1	1.1		No							0	0	1	6	24	38	25	6	1			9,899	*
85	5	14		-	2	0.4		No							0		0	2	12	33	36	14	2	0		4,885	*
84	5	15		-	1	0.0		No									0	0	4	22	39	27	7	1		2,163	*
83	4	15		-	2	Out		No											1	12	33	38	13	2		919	*
82	4	16		-	1	Out		No											1	5	22	44	21	7		369	*
81	3	16		-	2	Out		No												2	13	33	39	14		128	*
80	3	17		-	1	Out		No													4	31	40	25		52	*
79	3	18		-	0	Out		No														31	38	31		16	*
78	2	18		-	1	Out		No															50	50		6	*
77	2	19		-	0	Out		No															100			1
73	0	21		-	0	Out		No															5	84	11	616

Total:						97.0	%	0.0	%	0	0	23	45	12	10	5	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	7,446,960

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Devils 2 Oilers 3	-0.1
Coyotes 2 Bruins 3	+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Penguins vs Flyers	-0.3-0.3-0.2+0.3+0.3+0.8
Blue Jackets vs Wild	+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1

What If

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

115	21	0		-	0	3	60	6	6	22	3
114	20	0		-	1	1	39	2	10	35	13
113	20	1		-	0		36	6	12	33	14
112	19	1		-	1		22	3	15	31	30	0
111	18	1		-	2		14	2	15	28	42	0	0
110	18	2		-	1		8	1	13	20	57	1	0
109	17	2		-	2		4	0	11	14	69	1	0
108	17	3		-	1		2	0	8	9	78	2	2	0
107	16	3		-	2		1	0	5	5	82	3	4	0
106	16	4		-	1		0	0	3	2	82	4	9	0	0
105	15	4		-	2		0	0	2	1	77	4	16	0	0
104	15	5		-	1		0	0	1	0	70	4	24	1	0
	14	4		-	3		0		1	0	68	4	26	1	0
103	14	5		-	2		0		1	0	59	3	36	1	0	0		0
102	14	6		-	1		0		0	0	49	2	46	2	1	0		0
	13	5		-	3				0	0	46	2	48	3	1	0		0
101	13	6		-	2		0		0	0	36	1	57	4	2	0		0	0
	12	5		-	4				0	0	35	1	57	4	2	0		0	0
100	13	7		-	1				0	0	26	1	64	5	4	0	0	0	0
	12	6		-	3				0	0	24	1	64	5	6	0	0	0	0
99	12	7		-	2				0	0	16	0	68	5	9	1	0	0	0	0
	11	6		-	4				0		15	0	67	5	10	1	0	0	0	0
98	11	7		-	3				0		8	0	66	5	16	4	0	1	0	0		0
	12	8		-	1				0		9	0	67	5	15	4	0	1	0	0
97	11	8		-	2				0		4	0	61	4	21	8	0	2	1	0		0
	10	7		-	4				0		4	0	59	3	22	9	0	2	1	0
96	10	8		-	3				0		1	0	48	2	25	16	1	4	2	0		0
	11	9		-	1				0		1	0	50	2	24	15	1	3	2	0		0
95	10	9		-	2				0		0	0	38	1	23	23	3	5	6	1	0	0	0
	9	8		-	4				0		0	0	36	1	22	24	3	5	6	2	0	0	0
94	9	9		-	3				0		0	0	23	0	16	29	7	6	12	5	0	1	0	0
	10	10		-	1				0		0	0	25	0	16	28	7	6	11	5	0	1	0	0
93	9	10		-	2						0	0	14	0	9	27	11	6	18	12	0	3	0	0
92	8	10		-	3						0		7	0	4	21	14	4	19	21	1	8	1	0	0
91	8	11		-	2								3		1	12	13	2	16	27	2	18	5	1	0	0
90	8	12		-	1								1		0	5	10	0	9	24	4	29	14	3	0	0
89	7	12		-	2								0		0	2	6	0	4	14	4	32	26	9	1	0	0
88	7	13		-	1								0		0	0	3	0	1	6	3	26	34	21	5	0	0
87	6	13		-	2								0			0	1		0	1	2	15	33	32	14	2	0	0
86	6	14		-	1											0	0		0	0	1	6	23	37	25	7	1	0
85	5	14		-	2												0			0	0	2	11	30	36	17	4	0
84	5	15		-	1																0	0	3	19	34	30	11	2	0
83	4	15		-	2																		1	8	27	37	21	6	0
82	4	16		-	1																		0	3	17	31	32	14	2	0
81	3	16		-	2																			2	5	23	35	25	10
80	3	17		-	1																					12	31	40	13	4
79	3	18		-	0																					6	19	44	31
78	2	18		-	1																							17	50	33
77	2	19		-	0																									100
73	0	21		-	0																							0	2	16	32	33	14	2

Total:						0	0	0	0	0	22	1	44	2	10	8	2	2	3	3	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0