Toronto Maple Leafs Playoff Chances 2015-2016

Beat Sabres 4-2, playoff odds up 10.5 to 47.6%

71 points 32 25-7

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Maple Leafs 4 Sabres 2	+8.6		+0.5
Devils 2 Oilers 3	+0.6
Canadiens 4 Blackhawks 3	-0.2
Panthers 2 Rangers 1	-0.1
Coyotes 2 Bruins 3	*-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Blue Jackets vs Wild	-0.9-0.8-0.7+0.8+0.8+1.9		-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1
Lightning vs Ducks	-0.9-0.9-0.7+0.6+0.8+1.8		-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1
Rangers vs Blackhawks	-0.7-0.8-0.7+0.1+0.1+0.6		-0.1-0.1-0.0+0.0*+0.0+0.0
Penguins vs Flyers	-0.1-0.0-0.2+0.1*+0.2+0.4
Senators vs Red Wings	-0.1-0.2-0.0-0.1+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Maple Leafs finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Pres	Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

107	18	0		-	0	In		No	2	16	81	0	1												623
106	17	0		-	1	In		No		13	73	3	13												40
105	17	1		-	0	In		No		7	84	2	8												199	*
104	16	1		-	1	In		No		2	77	8	13												721	*
103	15	1		-	2	In		No		2	66	10	22	0	0										2,291	*
102	15	2		-	1	In		No		1	53	14	33	0	0										6,020	*
101	14	2		-	2	In		No		0	38	16	44	1	1										14,344	*
100	14	3		-	1	In		No		0	23	18	55	2	2	0									30,350	*
99	13	3		-	2	In		No		0	13	16	62	4	5	0									59,298	*
98	13	4		-	1	In		No		0	6	13	63	9	10	0									104,022	*
97	12	4		-	2	100.0	%	No		0	2	8	56	15	18	1	0								172,640	*
96	12	5		-	1	99.9		No		0	1	5	45	22	25	2	0	0							123,165
	11	4		-	3	99.9		No		0	0	4	40	23	29	3	0		0						135,297	*
95	11	5		-	2	99.5		No			0	2	28	27	36	7	0	0							207,622
	10	4		-	4	99.4		No			0	2	26	27	36	8	1	0							160,758	*
94	11	6		-	1	98.1		No			0	1	16	27	40	14	2	0	0						215,430
	10	5		-	3	97.2		No			0	1	13	26	41	17	3	0	0						266,099	*
93	10	6		-	2	92.6		No			0	0	6	23	38	26	7	1	0	0					331,010
	9	5		-	4	91.7		No			0	0	6	21	38	27	7	1	0						264,184	*
92	9	6		-	3	79.4		No				0	2	14	28	35	17	4	0	0					307,121
	10	7		-	1	81.2		No				0	2	16	29	34	15	3	0	0					374,139	*
91	9	7		-	2	62.8		No				0	0	9	18	36	27	9	1	0	0				407,593
	8	6		-	4	57.7		No				0	0	7	15	35	29	11	2	0	0				190,587
	10	8		-	0	64.3		No				0	1	9	18	36	26	9	1	0	0				142,353	*
90	8	7		-	3	38.1		No				0	0	4	7	27	35	21	5	0	0				337,544
	9	8		-	1	40.6		No				0	0	4	8	28	35	20	5	0	0				409,233	*
89	8	8		-	2	21.1		No				0	0	2	3	16	34	31	12	2	0	0			393,178
	7	7		-	4	17.4		No					0	1	2	14	32	33	15	3	0	0	0		186,252
	9	9		-	0	22.6		No					0	2	3	17	34	30	12	2	0	0	0		137,388	*
88	7	8		-	3	7.4		No					0	0	1	6	23	36	26	7	1	0	0		288,942
	8	9		-	1	8.6		No					0	1	1	7	24	36	24	6	1	0			348,653	*
87	7	9		-	2	2.5		No					0	0	0	2	13	32	35	15	2	0	0		298,184
	6	8		-	4	2.3		No						0	0	2	12	31	36	16	3	0	0		242,476	*
86	6	9		-	3	0.5		No						0	0	0	5	20	38	28	8	1	0		190,333
	7	10		-	1	0.6		No						0	0	1	5	22	38	27	7	1	0		234,169	*
85	6	10		-	2	0.1		No						0	0	0	2	11	32	36	16	3	0		177,700
	5	9		-	4	0.1		No						0		0	1	10	31	37	17	3	0		140,362	*
84	6	11		-	1	0.0		No						0		0	0	4	21	38	28	8	1		219,488	*
83	5	11		-	2	Out		No									0	1	11	32	37	16	2		144,128	*
82	5	12		-	1	Out		No									0	0	4	22	39	28	6		86,028	*
81	4	12		-	2	Out		No									0	0	2	12	35	38	13	0	49,476	*
80	4	13		-	1	Out		No										0	0	6	27	44	24	0	25,538	*
79	3	13		-	2	Out		No											0	3	17	43	36	0	12,572	*
78	3	14		-	1	Out		No												1	9	39	51	0	5,409	*
77	2	14		-	2	Out		No												0	5	31	64	0	2,216	*
76	2	15		-	1	Out		No												0	2	21	76	1	803	*
75	1	15		-	2	Out		No													1	18	79	3	265	*
74	1	16		-	1	Out		No														11	88	1	84	*
73	1	17		-	0	Out		No															100		17	*
71	0	18		-	0	Out		No														2	88	10	616

Total:						47.6	%	No	0	0	1	1	7	9	14	15	15	14	11	7	4	2	0	0	7,446,960

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Maple Leafs 4 Sabres 2	-0.7
Panthers 2 Rangers 1	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Lightning vs Ducks	+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1
Blue Jackets vs Wild	+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1
Rangers vs Blackhawks	+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

107	18	0		-	0		2		16	6	75	0		1	0
106	17	0		-	1				13		73		3	13
105	17	1		-	0				7	1	83	1	1	7	1
104	16	1		-	1				2	0	77	1	7	11	2
103	15	1		-	2				2	0	66	1	9	17	5	0		0
102	15	2		-	1				1	0	53	1	13	22	11	0		0
101	14	2		-	2				0		38	0	16	24	20	1		1	0
100	14	3		-	1				0		23	0	17	23	32	2	0	2	0	0
99	13	3		-	2				0		13	0	16	19	43	4	0	4	1	0
98	13	4		-	1				0		6	0	13	13	50	9	0	8	2	0
97	12	4		-	2				0		2	0	8	7	49	15	1	12	6	1		0
96	12	5		-	1				0		1	0	5	3	41	20	1	14	11	2	0	0	0
	11	4		-	3				0		0	0	4	2	38	21	2	16	13	3		0		0
95	11	5		-	2						0		2	1	27	24	3	16	20	7	0	0	0
	10	4		-	4						0		2	1	26	23	4	16	20	8	0	1	0
94	11	6		-	1						0		1	0	15	22	5	14	26	14	0	2	0	0
	10	5		-	3						0		1	0	13	20	6	13	28	17	0	3	0	0
93	10	6		-	2						0		0	0	6	16	7	9	29	25	0	7	1	0	0
	9	5		-	4						0		0	0	6	15	7	9	29	26	0	7	1	0
92	9	6		-	3								0	0	2	8	6	4	24	34	1	17	4	0	0
	10	7		-	1								0	0	2	9	6	5	25	33	1	15	3	0	0
91	9	7		-	2								0	0	0	4	5	2	16	33	3	27	9	1	0	0
	8	6		-	4								0		0	3	4	1	14	32	3	29	11	2	0	0
	10	8		-	0								0		1	4	5	2	17	33	2	26	9	1	0	0
90	8	7		-	3								0		0	1	3	0	7	23	4	35	21	5	0	0
	9	8		-	1								0		0	1	3	0	8	24	4	35	20	5	0	0
89	8	8		-	2								0		0	0	1	0	3	12	4	34	31	12	2	0	0
	7	7		-	4										0	0	1	0	2	10	4	32	33	15	3	0	0	0
	9	9		-	0										0	0	1	0	3	13	4	33	30	12	2	0	0	0
88	7	8		-	3										0	0	0	0	1	4	3	22	36	26	7	1	0	0
	8	9		-	1										0	0	0	0	1	4	3	24	36	24	6	1	0
87	7	9		-	2										0	0	0	0	0	1	1	12	32	35	16	3	0	0	0
	6	8		-	4											0	0	0	0	1	1	11	30	36	17	3	0	0
86	6	9		-	3												0	0	0	0	0	4	19	37	29	10	1	0	0
	7	10		-	1											0	0		0	0	0	5	20	37	28	9	1	0	0
85	6	10		-	2												0		0	0	0	1	9	29	36	19	4	0	0
	5	9		-	4												0			0	0	1	9	28	36	20	5	1	0	0
84	6	11		-	1												0			0	0	0	3	17	35	31	12	2	0	0
83	5	11		-	2																	0	1	7	25	36	24	7	1	0	0
82	5	12		-	1																	0	0	2	13	31	34	16	3	0	0
81	4	12		-	2																		0	1	5	21	36	28	8	1	0
80	4	13		-	1																		0	0	2	10	29	36	19	3	0
79	3	13		-	2																				0	4	19	37	30	9	1	0
78	3	14		-	1																				0	1	9	29	39	18	4	0
77	2	14		-	2																					0	2	18	39	30	10	1
76	2	15		-	1																					0	1	9	28	39	18	3	0
75	1	15		-	2																							2	19	34	34	9	2	0
74	1	16		-	1																								7	30	38	21	2	1
73	1	17		-	0																								6	18	53	18	6
71	0	18		-	0																									3	13	39	34	12	0

Total:							0		0	0	1	0	1	1	7	6	3	4	11	14	2	15	13	11	7	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0