Columbus Blue Jackets Playoff Chances 2015-2016

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.9 to 56.3%

66 points 29 23-8

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Devils 2 Oilers 3	+0.6		+0.1
Maple Leafs 4 Sabres 2	+0.2
Panthers 2 Rangers 1	*+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Blue Jackets vs Wild	+5.1+5.0+3.8-4.2-3.9-11.6		+0.3+0.3+0.2-0.2-0.2-0.7
Lightning vs Ducks	-0.7-0.6-0.5+0.7+0.6+1.5		-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1
Rangers vs Blackhawks	-0.8-0.8-0.7+0.1-0.0+0.6		-0.1-0.1-0.0+0.0*-0.0+0.0
Penguins vs Flyers	-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.0+0.4		-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Blue Jackets finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres	Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

110		22	0		-	0	In		No	6	13	80	1													617
109		21	0		-	1	In		No			100														6
108		20	0		-	2	In		No	2	2	90	6													49	*
107		20	1		-	1	In		No	0	4	83	12													235	*
106		19	1		-	2	In		No	0	2	81	16	1												844	*
105		19	2		-	1	In		No	0	1	72	24	2												2,173	*
104		18	2		-	2	In		No	0	1	62	32	5		0										5,478	*
103		18	3		-	1	In		No		0	51	40	9	0	0										12,236	*
102		17	3		-	2	In		No		0	37	48	14	0	0										25,828	*
101		17	4		-	1	In		No		0	25	51	22	1	1										47,757	*
100		16	4		-	2	In		No		0	15	51	30	2	2	0									83,652	*
99		15	4		-	3	In		No		0	8	45	38	5	4	0									133,983	*
98		15	5		-	2	100.0	%	No		0	4	37	41	10	8	0	0								203,766	*
97		14	5		-	3	100.0		No		0	1	26	39	18	15	1	0								287,623	*
96		14	6		-	2	99.9		No		0	0	17	31	26	24	2	0	0							386,162	*
95		13	6		-	3	99.5		No			0	9	20	31	33	7	1	0							225,213
		14	7		-	1	99.5		No		0	0	10	21	31	32	6	0	0							256,375	*
94		13	7		-	2	97.8		No			0	5	11	31	37	13	2	0	0						300,964
		12	6		-	4	97.3		No		0	0	4	10	31	37	15	2	0	0						272,706	*
93		12	7		-	3	91.2		No			0	2	4	25	35	26	8	1	0	0					407,062	*
		13	8		-	1	93.6		No			0	2	5	27	36	23	6	1	0						232,495
92		12	8		-	2	80.9		No				1	1	19	27	33	16	3	0	0					350,833
		11	7		-	4	78.6		No				1	1	17	26	34	17	4	0	0					330,925	*
91		11	8		-	3	59.6		No				0	0	10	15	34	28	10	2	0	0				323,941
		12	9		-	1	61.5		No				0	0	11	16	34	27	10	1	0	0				360,799	*
90		11	9		-	2	38.4		No				0	0	5	7	26	35	21	6	1	0	0			657,068	*
89		10	9		-	3	18.5		No				0	0	2	2	14	32	32	14	3	0	0			281,005
		11	10		-	1	20.0		No				0	0	2	3	15	33	31	14	2	0	0			312,680	*
88		10	10		-	2	8.0		No					0	1	1	6	23	36	25	7	1	0	0		261,419
		9	9		-	4	7.0		No				0	0	1	1	6	22	36	27	8	1	0			252,091	*
87		9	10		-	3	1.9		No						0	0	2	11	30	36	18	3	0	0		206,894	*
		10	11		-	1	2.4		No				0		0	0	2	12	31	35	16	3	0	0		212,597	*
86		9	11		-	2	0.5		No						0	0	0	4	19	37	29	9	1	0		327,570	*
85		8	11		-	3	0.1		No						0	0	0	1	9	29	38	19	4	0		240,375	*
84		8	12		-	2	0.0		No						0		0	0	3	18	38	30	9	1		169,961	*
83		7	12		-	3	0.0		No						0		0	0	1	9	31	38	18	3		111,738	*
82		7	13		-	2	Out		No									0	0	4	20	39	30	7		71,156	*
81		6	13		-	3	Out		No										0	1	11	34	39	14	0	41,947	*
80		6	14		-	2	Out		No											0	5	25	45	24	0	23,977	*
79		5	14		-	3	Out		No											0	2	16	44	38	0	12,436	*
78		5	15		-	2	Out		No												1	9	39	52	0	6,505	*
77		5	16		-	1	Out		No												0	4	31	64	0	2,971	*
76		4	16		-	2	Out		No													2	23	76	0	1,388	*
75		4	17		-	1	Out		No													1	16	81	2	550	*
74		3	17		-	2	Out		No													1	7	89	4	194	*
73		3	18		-	1	Out		No														1	90	9	70	*
71	-72						Out		No															100		27	*
70		2	20		-	0	Out		No															50	50	2	*
69		1	20		-	1	Out		No															100		1
66		0	22		-	0	Out		No															49	51	616

Total:							56.3	%	No	0	0	1	6	8	12	15	14	13	11	9	6	3	1	0	0	7,446,960

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Devils 2 Oilers 3	-0.1
Panthers 2 Rangers 1	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Blue Jackets vs Wild	-0.5-0.5-0.4+0.4+0.4+1.1
Penguins vs Flyers	+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1
Rangers vs Blackhawks	+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0*+0.0-0.1
Lightning vs Ducks	+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

110	22	0		-	0		6	1	12	32	48	1
109	21	0		-	1					17	83
108	20	0		-	2		2		2	12	78	4	2
107	20	1		-	1		0		4	3	81	5	7
106	19	1		-	2		0		2	1	80	5	12	1
105	19	2		-	1		0		1	1	72	5	20	2	0
104	18	2		-	2		0		1	0	62	4	29	4	1			0
103	18	3		-	1				0	0	51	3	37	7	2	0		0
102	17	3		-	2				0	0	37	2	46	10	4	0		0
101	17	4		-	1				0		25	1	50	13	9	1		1	0
100	16	4		-	2				0		15	1	50	13	17	2	0	2	0	0
99	15	4		-	3				0		8	0	45	12	26	5	0	4	0	0
98	15	5		-	2				0		4	0	37	8	33	10	0	7	2	0		0
97	14	5		-	3				0		1	0	26	5	34	17	1	11	4	1		0
96	14	6		-	2				0		0	0	17	2	29	24	2	14	10	2	0	0	0
95	13	6		-	3						0	0	9	1	19	27	4	16	17	7	0	1	0
	14	7		-	1				0		0	0	10	1	20	27	4	15	17	6	0	0	0
94	13	7		-	2				0		0	0	5	0	11	24	7	13	24	14	0	2	0	0
93	12	7		-	3						0		2	0	4	17	8	8	26	26	0	8	1	0	0
	13	8		-	1						0	0	2	0	5	19	8	9	26	23	0	6	1	0
92	12	8		-	2								1	0	1	11	8	4	23	32	1	16	3	0	0
	11	7		-	4								1	0	1	10	8	4	22	32	1	17	4	0	0
91	11	8		-	3								0		0	4	6	1	13	31	3	29	11	2	0	0
	12	9		-	1								0	0	0	6	6	2	16	32	3	26	9	1	0	0
90	11	9		-	2								0		0	2	4	0	7	22	4	34	21	6	1	0	0
89	10	9		-	3								0		0	0	2	0	2	10	4	32	32	14	3	0	0
	11	10		-	1								0		0	1	2	0	2	11	4	32	31	14	2	0	0
88	10	10		-	2										0	0	1	0	1	4	3	23	36	25	7	1	0	0
	9	9		-	4								0		0	0	1	0	1	3	2	21	36	27	9	1	0	0
87	9	10		-	3											0	0		0	1	1	10	29	36	19	4	0	0
	10	11		-	1								0			0	0		0	1	1	11	30	35	17	4	0	0
86	9	11		-	2											0	0		0	0	0	4	18	35	30	11	2	0	0
85	8	11		-	3												0		0	0	0	1	8	26	37	22	6	1	0
84	8	12		-	2												0			0	0	0	2	14	33	33	15	3	0	0
83	7	12		-	3												0				0	0	1	5	22	36	27	9	1	0
82	7	13		-	2																		0	2	11	29	35	19	4	0	0
81	6	13		-	3																		0	0	4	18	35	31	11	1	0
80	6	14		-	2																			0	1	8	27	38	22	4	0	0
79	5	14		-	3																				0	3	15	35	34	12	2	0
78	5	15		-	2																				0	1	7	24	40	23	5	1	0
77	5	16		-	1																				0	0	2	14	34	33	14	2	0
76	4	16		-	2																						0	5	26	36	25	7	1
75	4	17		-	1																							3	13	32	29	18	4
74	3	17		-	2																								6	26	38	24	5	1
73	3	18		-	1																								1	6	34	36	21	1
72	2	18		-	2																										20	40	35	5
71	2	19		-	1																											29	57	14
70	2	20		-	0																													50	50
69	1	20		-	1																												100
66	0	22		-	0																												14	48	39

Total:							0	0	0	0	1	0	6	1	7	9	3	5	10	13	1	13	11	8	6	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0