Vancouver Canucks Playoff Chances 2015-2016

Lost to Sharks 3-5, playoff odds down 8.3 to 21.9%

61 points 28 29-5

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Sharks 5 Canucks 3	-7.4		-0.2

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Oilers vs Jets	+0.9-0.4-0.4-1.4-1.5-1.5
Kings vs Islanders	-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1
Lightning vs Ducks	+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Canucks finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Pres	Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

101	20	0		-	0	In		No			0	5	81	0	13	0									616
100	19	0		-	1	In		No					50		25	25									4
99	18	0		-	2	In		No					42		54	4									24	*
98	18	1		-	1	In		No				1	35		53	10									68	*
97	17	1		-	2	In		No				0	28	1	55	15									303	*
96	17	2		-	1	In		No					17	1	58	25									1,011	*
95	16	2		-	2	100.0	%	No					9	2	50	39	0								2,761	*
94	16	3		-	1	99.8		No					4	1	43	52	0								6,516	*
93	15	3		-	2	99.3		No					2	1	34	63	1								14,535	*
92	15	4		-	1	98.1		No					1	1	24	73	2								29,795	*
91	14	4		-	2	95.5		No					0	0	16	79	4								55,993	*
90	13	4		-	3	91.1		No					0	0	10	81	9	0							97,084	*
89	13	5		-	2	83.9		No					0	0	6	78	16	0							156,917	*
88	12	5		-	3	74.7		No					0	0	3	72	25	0							233,823	*
87	12	6		-	2	63.4		No						0	1	62	37	0							330,660	*
86	11	6		-	3	50.8		No						0	1	50	49	0							207,419
	12	7		-	1	51.6		No						0	1	51	48	0							226,229	*
85	11	7		-	2	39.9		No							0	40	60	0							370,497	*
	10	6		-	4	37.4		No							0	37	62	0	0						171,183
84	10	7		-	3	27.8		No							0	28	71	1	0						302,228
	11	8		-	1	28.7		No							0	29	70	1	0						328,570	*
83	10	8		-	2	19.7		No							0	20	78	2	0						351,617
	9	7		-	4	18.4		No							0	18	79	2	0						345,152	*
82	9	8		-	3	11.7		No							0	12	83	5	0	0					346,585
	10	9		-	1	12.4		No							0	12	83	5	0	0					374,579	*
81	9	9		-	2	7.3		No							0	7	84	9	0	0					357,762
	8	8		-	4	6.6		No							0	7	84	9	0	0					350,737	*
80	8	9		-	3	3.4		No								3	80	16	1	0					430,716	*
	9	10		-	1	4.1		No							0	4	80	15	1	0					221,384
79	8	10		-	2	1.7		No							0	2	73	23	2	0	0				291,122
	7	9		-	4	1.5		No								2	72	24	3	0	0				282,133	*
78	7	10		-	3	0.6		No								1	60	33	6	0	0				224,213
	8	11		-	1	0.7		No								1	60	33	6	0	0				244,144	*
77	7	11		-	2	0.2		No								0	46	40	12	1	0				189,891
	6	10		-	4	0.2		No								0	45	41	12	1	0				176,528	*
76	6	11		-	3	0.1		No								0	31	44	20	4	0	0			266,846	*
75	6	12		-	2	0.0		No								0	19	41	30	9	1	0			184,924	*
74	5	12		-	3	0.0		No								0	10	33	37	17	3	0			118,937	*
73	5	13		-	2	0.0		No								0	4	22	38	28	8	1			71,957	*
72	4	13		-	3	Out		No									2	12	32	36	16	2			41,049	*
71	4	14		-	2	Out		No									0	5	22	39	28	6			21,591	*
70	4	15		-	1	Out		No									0	2	13	35	38	13			10,591	*
69	3	15		-	2	Out		No									0	1	6	26	43	24			4,629	*
68	3	16		-	1	Out		No										0	2	15	44	38			1,914	*
67	2	16		-	2	Out		No											1	7	39	52			748	*
66	2	17		-	1	Out		No												4	35	61			242	*
65	1	17		-	2	Out		No												2	18	79			92	*
64	1	18		-	1	Out		No													14	86			22	*
63	0	18		-	2	Out		No														100			3	*
61	0	20		-	0	Out		No													1	99			616

Total:						21.9	%	No			0	0	0	0	1	21	60	12	4	1	0	0			7,446,960

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Sharks 5 Canucks 3	+0.8
Canadiens 4 Blackhawks 3	+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Oilers vs Jets	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Senators vs Red Wings	+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

101	20	0		-	0					0		4	0	81	0	0		13		0
100	19	0		-	1									50				25		25
99	18	0		-	2									29	13			54		4
98	18	1		-	1								1	24	12			53		10
97	17	1		-	2								0	19	10	1		55	0	15
96	17	2		-	1									6	10	1		56	2	25
95	16	2		-	2									2	7	1	0	43	7	39	0	0
94	16	3		-	1									0	3	1	0	31	12	50	2	0
93	15	3		-	2									0	2	0	0	17	17	56	7	1
92	15	4		-	1									0	1	0	0	8	17	53	20	2	0	0
91	14	4		-	2										0	0	0	2	14	39	39	4	1	0	0
90	13	4		-	3										0	0	0	0	10	22	59	6	2	1	0	0
89	13	5		-	2										0	0	0	0	6	9	69	7	5	3	1	0	0
88	12	5		-	3										0		0	0	3	2	69	5	8	8	4	1	0	0
87	12	6		-	2												0	0	1	1	62	3	8	12	9	3	0	0	0
	11	5		-	4												0		1	0	61	3	8	13	10	4	0	0	0
86	11	6		-	3												0		1	0	50	1	5	14	18	10	2	0	0
	12	7		-	1												0		1	0	51	1	5	13	17	9	2	0	0
85	11	7		-	2														0	0	40	0	2	10	21	19	6	1	0	0
	10	6		-	4														0	0	38	0	2	9	21	20	8	1	0
84	10	7		-	3														0	0	28	0	1	5	19	27	16	4	0	0
	11	8		-	1														0		29	0	1	5	18	27	16	4	0	0
83	10	8		-	2														0		20	0	0	2	12	29	26	10	1	0	0
	9	7		-	4														0		18	0	0	2	11	28	28	11	2	0	0
82	9	8		-	3														0		12		0	0	5	22	34	21	5	0	0
	10	9		-	1														0		12		0	0	6	22	34	21	5	0	0
81	9	9		-	2														0		7		0	0	2	14	33	32	12	1	0
	8	8		-	4														0		6		0	0	2	12	32	34	14	1	0	0
80	8	9		-	3																3			0	0	5	23	39	25	4	0	0
	9	10		-	1														0		4			0	1	7	26	38	21	3	0	0
79	8	10		-	2														0		2			0	0	2	15	37	35	8	1	0
	7	9		-	4																2			0	0	2	13	36	37	9	1	0	0
78	7	10		-	3																1				0	1	6	27	44	19	3	0	0
	8	11		-	1																1				0	1	6	27	44	18	3	0	0
77	7	11		-	2																0				0	0	2	16	43	30	8	1	0
76	6	11		-	3																0					0	1	7	34	38	16	3	0	0
75	6	12		-	2																0					0	0	3	22	39	27	8	1	0
74	5	12		-	3																0						0	1	11	33	35	17	3	0	0
73	5	13		-	2																0						0	0	5	22	37	27	8	1	0
72	4	13		-	3																							0	2	12	31	35	17	3	0
71	4	14		-	2																							0	0	5	21	37	29	8	1
70	4	15		-	1																								0	2	11	31	37	17	2
69	3	15		-	2																								0	1	5	22	39	29	5
68	3	16		-	1																									0	1	11	35	40	12
67	2	16		-	2																										0	5	25	50	20
66	2	17		-	1																											2	18	50	30
65	1	17		-	2																											1	8	49	42
64	1	18		-	1																												5	41	55
63	0	18		-	2																													67	33
61	0	20		-	0																													13	87

Total:										0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	20	1	1	3	7	11	15	16	14	7	3	1	0	0	0