Dallas Stars Playoff Chances 2015-2016

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.01 to 0.06%

51 points 22 32-7

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Sharks 5 Canucks 3			-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Stars vs Flames	+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0		+0.3+0.3+0.2+0.0+0.0-0.2
Blue Jackets vs Wild			+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Lightning vs Ducks			+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1

Chances based on how well the Stars finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres	Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

93		21	0		-	0	99.5	%	No				0	3	81	9	7	0								616
92		20	0		-	1	In		No								100									1
91		19	0		-	2	In		No							100										1
90		18	0		-	3	In		No								100									2
89		18	1		-	2	85.7		No						29		57	14								7	*
88		18	2		-	1	65.1		No						26		40	35								43	*
87		17	2		-	2	47.5		No						7	2	39	45	8							101	*
86		16	2		-	3	45.8		No						7	0	39	46	9							384	*
85		16	3		-	2	29.3		No						2		27	56	15	0						1,020	*
84		15	3		-	3	17.4		No						2		16	57	25	0						2,511	*
83		15	4		-	2	9.4		No						1		9	56	33	1						5,585	*
82		14	4		-	3	5.0		No				0		0		5	47	45	2	0					11,902	*
81		14	5		-	2	2.4		No						0		2	37	55	5	0					23,682	*
80		13	5		-	3	0.9		No						0		1	27	61	11	0	0				43,609	*
79		13	6		-	2	0.3		No						0		0	18	62	18	2	0				75,554	*
78		12	6		-	3	0.1		No								0	10	57	28	4	0	0			122,634	*
77		12	7		-	2	0.0		No						0		0	5	47	37	9	1	0			187,483	*
76		11	7		-	3	0.0		No								0	2	35	43	17	3	0			269,881	*
75		11	8		-	2	0.0		No								0	1	22	43	27	7	1			199,497	*
		10	7		-	4	0.0		No								0	1	21	42	28	7	1			165,257	*
74		10	8		-	3	Out		No									0	12	36	36	14	2			224,169
		9	7		-	5	0.0		No								0	0	12	36	36	14	2			243,748	*
73		10	9		-	2	Out		No									0	6	27	40	22	4			230,923
		9	8		-	4	Out		No									0	5	24	40	25	5			333,777	*
72		9	9		-	3	Out		No									0	2	15	38	35	10			308,684
		8	8		-	5	Out		No									0	2	13	36	37	12			159,578
		10	10		-	1	Out		No									0	2	16	38	33	10			177,392	*
71		9	10		-	2	Out		No									0	1	8	31	42	19			287,447
		8	9		-	4	Out		No									0	1	7	28	43	21			410,454	*
70		8	10		-	3	Out		No									0	0	3	19	45	33			342,523
		7	9		-	5	Out		No										0	2	17	44	36			173,337
		9	11		-	1	Out		No										0	3	20	44	32			197,098	*
69		8	11		-	2	Out		No										0	1	12	41	46			289,461
		7	10		-	4	Out		No										0	1	10	40	50			398,513	*
68		7	11		-	3	Out		No										0	0	5	33	62			303,251
		8	12		-	1	Out		No										0	0	5	32	63			323,942	*
67		7	12		-	2	Out		No										0	0	2	23	75			298,430	*
		6	11		-	4	Out		No										0	0	2	22	76			241,908	*
66		6	12		-	3	Out		No										0	0	1	14	85			213,206
		7	13		-	1	Out		No											0	1	14	85			223,791	*
65		6	13		-	2	Out		No											0	0	9	91			152,472
		5	12		-	4	Out		No												0	8	92			181,170	*
64		5	13		-	3	Out		No												0	4	95			239,107	*
63		5	14		-	2	Out		No												0	2	98			161,216	*
62		4	14		-	3	Out		No													1	99			101,334	*
61		4	15		-	2	Out		No													0	100			59,169	*
60		3	15		-	3	Out		No													0	100			32,179	*
59		3	16		-	2	Out		No													0	100			16,256	*
58		2	16		-	3	Out		No													0	100			7,278	*
51	-57						Out		No														100			5,377	*

Total:							0.1	%	No				0	0	0	0	0	1	7	12	17	24	39			7,446,960

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Sharks 5 Canucks 3	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Stars vs Flames	-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.0-0.0+0.3
Blue Jackets vs Wild	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Penguins vs Flyers	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Lightning vs Ducks	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

93		21	0		-	0								0		3	44	37	5	4	7	0	0
92		20	0		-	1															100
91		19	0		-	2														100
90		18	0		-	3																100
89		18	1		-	2												29				57			14
88		18	2		-	1												26			2	37	2	12	14	5	2
87		17	2		-	2												7		2		39	1	13	16	16	7
86		16	2		-	3												7		0		39	1	4	13	19	11	5	1
85		16	3		-	2												2				27	0	1	9	25	22	11	2	0
84		15	3		-	3												2				16		0	4	17	29	22	8	1	0
83		15	4		-	2												1				9		0	1	9	25	31	18	5	0
82		14	4		-	3								0				0				5			0	3	15	32	29	13	2	0
81		14	5		-	2												0				2		0	0	1	7	23	35	24	7	0
80		13	5		-	3												0				1			0	0	2	12	31	35	16	2	0
79		13	6		-	2												0				0				0	1	5	21	38	28	6	0	0
78		12	6		-	3																0				0	0	1	11	32	39	14	2	0	0
77		12	7		-	2												0				0					0	0	4	22	42	25	6	0	0
76		11	7		-	3																0					0	0	1	11	37	36	13	2	0	0
75		11	8		-	2																0						0	0	5	25	40	24	6	1	0
74		10	8		-	3																							0	1	14	36	34	13	2	0
		9	7		-	5																0							0	1	14	35	34	13	2	0
73		10	9		-	2																							0	0	6	26	38	23	5	0
		9	8		-	4																							0	0	6	25	39	24	5	0
72		9	9		-	3																							0	0	2	15	36	34	12	1
		8	8		-	5																								0	2	14	35	35	13	1
71		9	10		-	2																								0	1	8	28	40	21	2
		8	9		-	4																								0	1	6	26	41	24	3
70		8	10		-	3																								0	0	3	17	40	35	5
		7	9		-	5																								0	0	2	14	39	38	7
		9	11		-	1																								0	0	3	18	40	34	5
69		8	11		-	2																									0	1	9	34	45	11
		7	10		-	4																									0	1	8	32	47	12
68		7	11		-	3																									0	0	3	24	53	20
		8	12		-	1																									0	0	3	23	53	21
67		7	12		-	2																									0	0	1	15	54	30
		6	11		-	4																									0	0	1	13	53	33
66		6	12		-	3																										0	0	7	49	44
		7	13		-	1																										0	0	7	48	44
65		6	13		-	2																										0	0	3	40	56
64		5	13		-	3																											0	1	31	68
63		5	14		-	2																											0	0	23	77
62		4	14		-	3																												0	16	84
61		4	15		-	2																												0	10	90
60		3	15		-	3																												0	6	94
59		3	16		-	2																													4	96
58		2	16		-	3																													2	98
57		2	17		-	2																													1	99
56		2	18		-	1																													1	99
55		1	18		-	2																													0	100
51	-54																																			100

Total:														0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	6	11	15	20	26	18