Carolina Hurricanes Playoff Chances 2015-2016

Did not play, playoff odds up 1.2 to 43.7%

69 points 34 28-1

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Devils 2 Oilers 3	+0.7		+0.1
Maple Leafs 4 Sabres 2	+0.4		+0.0
Panthers 2 Rangers 1	*+0.1		+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Blue Jackets vs Wild	-0.9-0.9-0.9+0.7+0.5+2.1		-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1
Lightning vs Ducks	-0.7-0.9-0.6+0.6+0.7+1.6		-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1
Rangers vs Blackhawks	-0.8-0.8-0.7+0.1+0.0+0.6		-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1
Penguins vs Flyers	-0.1-0.1-0.2+0.1*+0.0+0.4		-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Hurricanes finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Pres	Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

107	19	0		-	0	In		No	4	6	86	3	0												619
106	18	0		-	1	In		No		5	95														21
105	18	1		-	0	In		No		2	89	8	2												123	*
104	17	1		-	1	In		No		1	72	22	5												433	*
103	16	1		-	2	In		No	0	1	60	29	10												1,349	*
102	16	2		-	1	In		No		0	47	38	14	0	0										3,628	*
101	15	2		-	2	In		No		0	34	43	21	0	1										9,230	*
100	15	3		-	1	In		No		0	22	45	31	1	1										19,793	*
99	14	3		-	2	In		No		0	12	44	38	3	3	0									39,835	*
98	14	4		-	1	In		No		0	6	37	43	7	6	0									73,382	*
97	13	4		-	2	100.0	%	No		0	2	29	43	13	12	0	0								125,760	*
96	13	5		-	1	100.0		No		0	1	20	36	21	21	1	0								194,993	*
95	12	5		-	2	99.7		No			0	12	26	27	30	5	0	0							289,046	*
94	11	5		-	3	98.6		No			0	6	15	29	37	12	1	0	0						178,638
	12	6		-	1	98.7		No			0	6	15	30	36	11	1	0	0						213,846	*
93	11	6		-	2	95.2		No			0	3	7	27	37	21	4	0	0						277,707
	10	5		-	4	94.7		No			0	2	7	26	37	22	5	0	0						229,118	*
92	10	6		-	3	84.8		No				1	2	19	30	32	13	2	0	0					359,107	*
	11	7		-	1	86.8		No			0	1	3	21	31	31	11	2	0	0					244,586
91	10	7		-	2	69.7		No				0	1	13	21	36	23	7	1	0	0				369,172
	9	6		-	4	68.2		No				0	1	12	20	36	24	7	1	0	0				316,555	*
90	9	7		-	3	46.6		No				0	0	6	10	30	33	16	3	0	0				336,728
	10	8		-	1	47.5		No				0	0	7	10	30	33	16	3	0	0				390,149	*
89	9	8		-	2	26.7		No				0	0	3	4	20	35	28	9	1	0				526,239	*
	8	7		-	4	24.4		No				0	0	2	4	18	35	29	10	1	0	0			204,889
88	8	8		-	3	10.9		No				0	0	1	1	9	27	36	21	4	0	0			318,219
	9	9		-	1	11.4		No				0	0	1	1	9	27	36	20	4	0	0			367,597	*
87	8	9		-	2	3.8		No				0		0	0	3	16	35	32	11	2	0	0		328,994
	7	8		-	4	3.5		No						0	0	3	16	34	33	12	2	0	0		284,573	*
86	7	9		-	3	0.8		No						0	0	1	7	25	38	23	5	0	0		235,868
	8	10		-	1	0.9		No						0	0	1	7	25	38	23	5	1	0		274,410	*
85	7	10		-	2	0.2		No						0	0	0	2	14	35	34	13	2	0		219,180
	6	9		-	4	0.2		No						0	0	0	2	13	35	34	13	2	0		185,521	*
84	6	10		-	3	0.0		No						0	0	0	0	5	24	39	25	6	1		136,400
	7	11		-	1	0.0		No						0		0	1	6	25	39	24	6	1		162,911	*
83	6	11		-	2	0.0		No						0		0	0	2	14	35	35	14	2		209,940	*
82	5	11		-	3	Out		No									0	0	6	25	39	24	5		136,425	*
81	5	12		-	2	Out		No									0	0	2	15	37	35	11	0	84,970	*
80	5	13		-	1	Out		No										0	1	7	29	42	21	0	48,016	*
79	4	13		-	2	Out		No											0	3	19	44	34	0	25,966	*
78	4	14		-	1	Out		No											0	1	11	40	48	0	12,756	*
77	3	14		-	2	Out		No												0	5	32	62	0	5,854	*
76	3	15		-	1	Out		No													2	22	76	0	2,319	*
75	2	15		-	2	Out		No													1	16	82	2	1,013	*
74	2	16		-	1	Out		No														8	91	2	328	*
73	1	16		-	2	Out		No														3	95	2	96	*
72	1	17		-	1	Out		No														6	92	3	36	*
71	0	17		-	2	Out		No															80	20	5	*
70	0	18		-	1	Out		No															100		1
69	0	19		-	0	Out		No														0	77	23	616

Total:						43.7	%	No	0	0	0	3	5	9	12	14	15	14	12	8	5	2	1	0	7,446,960

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Devils 2 Oilers 3	-0.1
Panthers 2 Rangers 1	-0.0
Maple Leafs 4 Sabres 2	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Blue Jackets vs Wild	+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.0-0.2
Lightning vs Ducks	+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1
Rangers vs Blackhawks	+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Penguins vs Flyers	+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

107	19	0		-	0		4	0	6	6	80	1	1	0
106	18	0		-	1				5		95
105	18	1		-	0				2		89	1	7	2
104	17	1		-	1				1		72	3	19	5	0
103	16	1		-	2		0		1	0	60	3	26	9	1
102	16	2		-	1				0		47	2	36	11	3	0		0
101	15	2		-	2				0		34	1	42	15	7	0		1	0
100	15	3		-	1				0	0	22	1	45	17	14	1	0	1	0
99	14	3		-	2				0		12	0	43	16	22	3	0	3	0	0
98	14	4		-	1				0		6	0	37	13	30	7	0	6	1	0
97	13	4		-	2				0		2	0	29	8	35	13	0	9	3	0		0
96	13	5		-	1				0		1	0	20	4	33	20	1	14	7	1		0
95	12	5		-	2						0	0	12	1	25	24	3	16	14	5	0	0	0
94	11	5		-	3						0	0	6	0	14	24	5	15	22	12	0	1	0	0
	12	6		-	1						0	0	6	0	15	25	5	15	21	11	0	1	0	0
93	11	6		-	2						0		3	0	7	20	7	12	26	21	0	4	0	0
	10	5		-	4						0	0	2	0	6	18	7	11	27	23	0	5	1	0
92	10	6		-	3								1	0	2	12	7	6	24	32	1	13	2	0	0
	11	7		-	1						0		1	0	3	13	8	7	25	30	1	11	2	0	0
91	10	7		-	2								0	0	1	6	6	3	18	34	2	23	7	1	0	0
	9	6		-	4								0		1	6	6	2	17	34	2	24	7	1	0	0
90	9	7		-	3								0		0	2	4	1	9	27	3	33	16	3	0	0
	10	8		-	1								0		0	3	4	1	10	27	3	33	16	3	0	0
89	9	8		-	2								0		0	1	2	0	4	16	4	35	28	9	1	0	0
	8	7		-	4								0		0	1	2	0	4	15	4	35	29	10	1	0	0
88	8	8		-	3								0		0	0	1	0	1	6	3	27	36	21	5	0	0
	9	9		-	1								0		0	0	1	0	1	6	3	27	36	20	5	0	0
87	8	9		-	2								0			0	0	0	0	2	1	16	35	32	12	2	0	0
	7	8		-	4											0	0	0	0	2	1	15	34	33	13	2	0	0
86	7	9		-	3											0	0		0	0	0	6	24	38	24	6	1	0
	8	10		-	1											0	0		0	0	0	6	24	38	24	6	1	0	0
85	7	10		-	2												0		0	0	0	2	12	33	34	15	3	0	0
	6	9		-	4											0	0		0	0	0	2	12	32	35	16	3	0	0
84	6	10		-	3												0		0	0	0	0	4	20	36	28	9	1	0	0
	7	11		-	1												0			0	0	0	5	21	36	27	9	1	0	0
83	6	11		-	2												0				0	0	1	10	28	35	20	5	0	0
82	5	11		-	3																	0	0	3	17	34	31	13	2	0	0
81	5	12		-	2																		0	1	7	24	36	24	7	0	0	0
80	5	13		-	1																		0	0	2	13	32	35	16	2	0	0
79	4	13		-	2																			0	1	5	21	38	28	7	1	0
78	4	14		-	1																			0	0	1	11	31	38	16	3	0	0
77	3	14		-	2																					0	4	19	40	28	8	1	0
76	3	15		-	1																						1	8	32	38	17	3	0
75	2	15		-	2																						0	3	20	39	27	9	1	0
74	2	16		-	1																							1	7	31	38	19	5
73	1	16		-	2																									15	35	40	10
72	1	17		-	1																									3	28	22	33	14
71	0	17		-	2																									20	40	20	20
70	0	18		-	1																											100
69	0	19		-	0																										3	16	39	36	6

Total:							0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1	4	6	3	4	9	13	1	14	14	12	8	5	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0