Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Sports Club Stats, which I have open
in like seven browser tabs always
-Katie Baker

Ottawa Senators Playoff Chances 2015-2016

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.07 to 1%

61 points 26 26-9

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Canadiens 4 Blackhawks 3			-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Senators vs Red Wings	+0.7+0.7+0.5-0.1-0.1-0.5		+0.3+0.3+0.3-0.0-0.0-0.3
Blue Jackets vs Wild	-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Lightning vs Ducks	-0.0-0.1-0.0+0.0*+0.0+0.1
Rangers vs Blackhawks	-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0*+0.0+0.0		-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0*-0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Senators finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Pres	Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

103	21	0		-	0	In		No	0	8	60	8	24												616
100	19	1		-	1	In		No				40	60												5	*
99	18	1		-	2	In		No			12	6	65		18										17	*
98	18	2		-	1	In		No			3	14	60	8	14	2									65	*
97	17	2		-	2	In		No			3	6	48	15	27	1									233	*
96	16	2		-	3	In		No			0	2	34	23	35	5									748	*
95	16	3		-	2	98.5	%	No			0	1	19	22	45	11	1	0							1,768	*
94	15	3		-	3	96.0		No				0	9	20	44	23	4	0		0					4,123	*
93	15	4		-	2	86.6		No				0	3	14	36	33	11	2	0						9,027	*
92	14	4		-	3	68.8		No				0	1	9	22	37	23	7	1	0					18,497	*
91	14	5		-	2	46.3		No				0	0	4	11	31	32	17	4	0	0				34,732	*
90	13	5		-	3	24.3		No					0	2	4	19	33	28	12	2	0	0			61,062	*
89	13	6		-	2	9.4		No					0	0	1	8	24	34	24	8	1	0			101,087	*
88	12	6		-	3	2.8		No						0	0	2	12	29	33	18	4	0	0		157,012	*
87	12	7		-	2	0.5		No						0	0	1	5	18	34	30	12	2	0		230,974	*
86	11	7		-	3	0.1		No						0	0	0	1	8	25	37	23	5	0		318,914	*
85	11	8		-	2	0.0		No						0	0	0	0	3	15	35	34	12	1	0	179,733
	10	7		-	4	0.0		No								0	0	2	13	34	35	14	2		238,327	*
84	10	8		-	3	0.0		No								0	0	1	6	25	40	24	5	0	248,528
	11	9		-	1	0.0		No								0	0	1	6	25	40	24	5		267,649	*
83	10	9		-	2	Out		No									0	0	2	14	38	35	10	0	323,920	*
	9	8		-	4	Out		No									0	0	2	14	37	36	11		279,496	*
82	9	9		-	3	Out		No									0	0	1	7	30	43	19	0	480,605	*
	8	8		-	5	Out		No										0	0	6	27	45	22	0	188,165	*
81	9	10		-	2	Out		No										0	0	3	20	46	31	0	299,266
	8	9		-	4	Out		No										0	0	2	19	46	33	0	401,651	*
80	8	10		-	3	Out		No											0	1	11	42	46	0	335,563
	9	11		-	1	Out		No											0	1	11	42	46	0	360,546	*
79	8	11		-	2	Out		No											0	0	6	36	58	0	282,943
	7	10		-	4	Out		No											0	0	5	34	61	0	369,481	*
78	7	11		-	3	Out		No											0	0	3	26	71	0	579,515	*
77	7	12		-	2	Out		No												0	1	19	80	0	217,623
	6	11		-	4	Out		No												0	1	17	82	0	268,303	*
76	6	12		-	3	Out		No												0	0	11	88	1	187,504
	7	13		-	1	Out		No												0	0	12	87	1	197,291	*
75	6	13		-	2	Out		No													0	7	91	2	288,356	*
74	5	13		-	3	Out		No													0	4	93	3	202,178	*
73	5	14		-	2	Out		No													0	2	93	5	133,565	*
72	4	14		-	3	Out		No													0	1	90	9	82,250	*
71	4	15		-	2	Out		No														0	86	13	47,434	*
70	3	15		-	3	Out		No														0	81	19	25,731	*
69	3	16		-	2	Out		No														0	73	27	12,666	*
68	2	16		-	3	Out		No														0	64	36	5,657	*
67	2	17		-	2	Out		No															54	46	2,305	*
66	2	18		-	1	Out		No															49	51	819	*
65	1	18		-	2	Out		No															35	65	293	*
64	1	19		-	1	Out		No															26	74	73	*
63	1	20		-	0	Out		No															21	79	24	*
62	0	20		-	1	Out		No															50	50	4
61	0	21		-	0	Out		No															10	90	616

Total:						1.0	%	No	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	5	9	15	25	41	1	7,446,960

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Canadiens 4 Blackhawks 3	+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Senators vs Red Wings	-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.0-0.0+0.5
Rangers vs Blackhawks	+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0*+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

103	21	0		-	0		0		8		60	0	8	22	2
100	19	1		-	1								40		60
99	18	1		-	2						12		6	29	35			18
98	18	2		-	1						3		14	20	40	8		9	5	2
97	17	2		-	2						3		6	5	43	15	0	19	8	1
96	16	2		-	3						0		2	3	31	22	1	22	13	5
95	16	3		-	2						0		1	1	19	20	2	22	23	11	0	1	0
94	15	3		-	3								0	0	9	17	3	17	27	23	0	4	0		0
93	15	4		-	2								0	0	3	11	4	9	27	33	0	11	2	0
92	14	4		-	3								0		1	5	3	4	19	36	1	23	7	1	0
91	14	5		-	2								0		0	2	2	1	10	29	2	32	17	4	0	0
90	13	5		-	3										0	1	1	0	4	16	3	33	28	12	2	0	0
89	13	6		-	2										0	0	0	0	1	6	2	24	34	24	8	1	0
88	12	6		-	3											0	0	0	0	2	1	12	29	33	18	4	0	0
87	12	7		-	2											0	0	0	0	0	0	4	17	33	31	12	2	0	0
86	11	7		-	3												0		0	0	0	1	7	24	36	24	6	1	0
85	11	8		-	2												0		0	0	0	0	3	14	33	34	14	2	0	0
	10	7		-	4															0	0	0	2	12	31	35	17	3	0	0
84	10	8		-	3																0	0	0	5	20	37	28	9	1	0
83	10	9		-	2																	0	0	1	11	31	36	18	3	0	0
	9	8		-	4																	0	0	1	9	29	37	20	4	0	0
82	9	9		-	3																	0	0	0	4	18	37	31	10	1	0	0
	10	10		-	1																	0	0	0	4	18	36	31	10	1	0
81	9	10		-	2																			0	1	9	30	39	19	2	0	0
	8	9		-	4																		0	0	1	8	27	40	22	2	0	0
80	8	10		-	3																			0	0	3	17	39	34	6	0	0
	9	11		-	1																			0	0	3	17	39	34	6	0	0
79	8	11		-	2																			0	0	1	9	32	43	13	1	0	0
	7	10		-	4																			0	0	1	7	29	45	15	2	0	0
78	7	11		-	3																				0	0	3	18	47	26	5	0	0	0
	8	12		-	1																				0	0	4	21	47	24	5	0	0
77	7	12		-	2																				0	0	1	10	41	35	11	1	0	0
	6	11		-	4																					0	1	8	39	37	13	2	0	0
76	6	12		-	3																					0	0	4	28	41	22	5	0	0
	7	13		-	1																					0	0	4	28	41	22	5	0	0
75	6	13		-	2																						0	1	16	37	32	12	2	0	0
74	5	13		-	3																						0	0	8	28	37	22	5	0	0
73	5	14		-	2																							0	3	16	35	32	12	2	0
72	4	14		-	3																							0	1	8	26	37	23	5	0
71	4	15		-	2																								0	3	15	35	34	12	1
70	3	15		-	3																								0	1	7	26	40	22	3
69	3	16		-	2																									0	3	16	39	34	8
68	2	16		-	3																									0	1	8	31	44	16
67	2	17		-	2																									0	0	4	21	48	27
66	2	18		-	1																										0	1	13	50	36
65	1	18		-	2																											0	5	41	53
64	1	19		-	1																												3	34	63
63	1	20		-	0																													25	75
62	0	20		-	1																													50	50
61	0	21		-	0																													12	88

Total:							0		0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	4	7	11	15	17	19	11	6	3	1	0	0