Cincinatti Reds Playoff Chances 2018

Beat Rays 166-123, playoff odds up 13.1 to 47.9%

6-3-0 .667

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Reds finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

17		11	-	0	-	0	In		100												5,253
16	.5	10	-	0	-	1	In		95	4		0									2,098
16		10	-	1	-	0	In		87	7		7									50,702
		9	-	0	-	2	In		91	6		3									454
15	.5	9	-	1	-	1	In		66	21		13									20,225
		8	-	0	-	3	In		74	14		12									50
15		9	-	2	-	0	100.0	%	48	20	0	32	0								242,611
		8	-	1	-	2	In		53	22		25									3,562
		7	-	0	-	4	In		50	25		25									4
14	.5	8	-	2	-	1	99.8		26	30	0	44	0								84,584
		7	-	1	-	3	99.7		30	27		43	0								379	*
14		8	-	3	-	0	98.0		13	21	0	64	2	0							664,981
		7	-	2	-	2	98.8		15	24	0	60	1								13,064
		6	-	1	-	4	96.2		4	27		65	4								26
13	.5	7	-	3	-	1	94.2		4	19	0	71	6	0							203,687
		6	-	2	-	3	94.6		4	20	0	70	5								1,110
13		7	-	4	-	0	81.4		1	9	0	71	18	1	0						1,157,872
		6	-	3	-	2	83.8		1	10	1	72	16	0	0						26,664
		5	-	2	-	4	84.1		1	14		68	16								69
12	.5	6	-	4	-	1	65.8		0	4	1	61	31	3	0						301,266
		5	-	3	-	3	67.7		0	5	1	62	30	2	0						1,938	*
12		6	-	5	-	0	40.6		0	1	0	39	46	12	1	0					1,335,720
		5	-	4	-	2	42.6		0	1	0	41	46	11	1						33,285
		4	-	3	-	4	44.0			1	1	42	49	5	1						91
11	.5	5	-	5	-	1	22.6		0	0	0	22	50	25	3	0					290,429
		4	-	4	-	3	22.4			0	0	22	52	23	2	0					2,109
		3	-	3	-	5	50.0					50	50								2
11		5	-	6	-	0	8.0			0	0	8	37	41	13	1	0				1,038,261
		4	-	5	-	2	8.3			0	0	8	38	40	12	1	0				25,780
		3	-	4	-	4	5.6					6	38	39	17						71
10	.5	4	-	6	-	1	2.0			0	0	2	21	46	28	3	0				182,269
		3	-	5	-	3	2.4					2	22	45	27	3	0				1,213	*
10		4	-	7	-	0	0.3				0	0	7	31	43	17	2	0	0		537,805
		3	-	6	-	2	0.2					0	7	31	43	16	2	0			12,611
		2	-	5	-	4	Out						6	31	54	6	3				35
9	.5	3	-	7	-	1	0.0					0	1	13	42	35	9	1	0		73,553
		2	-	6	-	3	Out						1	14	44	32	8	0			437	*
9		3	-	8	-	0	0.0					0	0	3	21	41	27	7	1		180,429
		2	-	7	-	2	Out						0	3	20	42	27	7	0		3,724
		1	-	6	-	4	Out								15	54	31				13
8	.5	2	-	8	-	1	Out							0	6	31	43	18	2		17,907
		1	-	7	-	3	Out								4	33	46	17			82
8		2	-	9	-	0	Out							0	1	12	37	38	12	0	37,773
		1	-	8	-	2	Out								0	11	37	38	13		608
7	.5	1	-	9	-	1	Out								0	3	24	48	24	0	2,455
		0	-	8	-	3	Out										20	20	60		5
7		1	-	10	-	0	Out									1	8	40	49	1	4,259
		0	-	9	-	2	Out									4	8	49	39		49
6	.5	0	-	10	-	1	Out										3	30	68		115
6		0	-	11	-	0	Out										0	11	72	17	903

Total:							47.9	%	5	6	0	37	24	15	8	3	1	1	0	0	6,562,592

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24

17		11	-	0	-	0	47	44	9	1
16	.5	10	-	0	-	1	7	30	40	18	5	0
16		10	-	1	-	0	6	28	39	21	5	1	0
		9	-	0	-	2	0	3	17	33	32	14	1
15	.5	9	-	1	-	1	0	3	13	31	34	17	3
		8	-	0	-	3				8	28	44	20
15		9	-	2	-	0	0	2	12	29	34	18	4	0	0	0
		8	-	1	-	2		0	1	5	23	44	27	0
		7	-	0	-	4						50	50
14	.5	8	-	2	-	1		0	1	5	21	43	31	0	0	0
		7	-	1	-	3				0	4	26	69	1		0
14		8	-	3	-	0	0	0	0	4	19	41	34	0	2	0	0
		7	-	2	-	2			0	0	3	25	69	2	1	1	0
		6	-	1	-	4						8	85	4		4
13	.5	7	-	3	-	1			0	0	2	22	68	2	2	3	0	0
		6	-	2	-	3					0	6	78	10	1	4	1	0
13		7	-	4	-	0			0	0	2	17	61	2	7	11	1	0	0
		6	-	3	-	2				0	0	5	70	9	2	10	4	0	0
		5	-	2	-	4							54	30		9	6	1
12	.5	6	-	4	-	1					0	3	55	8	3	21	9	1	0
		5	-	3	-	3						0	45	22	1	12	14	4	1
12		6	-	5	-	0					0	2	34	5	5	36	16	2	0	0
		5	-	4	-	2						0	26	16	1	18	26	11	2	0
		4	-	3	-	4							15	29		8	15	24	7	2
11	.5	5	-	5	-	1						0	14	9	1	23	34	16	3	0	0
		4	-	4	-	3							6	17		5	21	32	16	3	0
		3	-	3	-	5								50							50
11		5	-	6	-	0					0	0	5	3	1	25	41	21	4	0	0
		4	-	5	-	2							2	6	0	5	24	37	21	4	0	0
		3	-	4	-	4								6			4	17	44	21	8
10	.5	4	-	6	-	1							1	2	0	4	23	40	25	5	0	0
		3	-	5	-	3							0	2		0	3	15	35	32	11	1
10		4	-	7	-	0							0	0	0	3	21	40	29	6	0	0
		3	-	6	-	2							0	0		0	2	14	36	34	12	2	0	0
		2	-	5	-	4														29	51	11	6	3
9	.5	3	-	7	-	1								0		0	1	12	36	35	13	2	0	0
		2	-	6	-	3												0	6	23	39	24	7	0
9		3	-	8	-	0								0		0	1	11	35	37	14	2	0	0
		2	-	7	-	2												0	4	21	37	26	10	1	0
		1	-	6	-	4															15	54		23	8
8	.5	2	-	8	-	1												0	4	20	37	27	10	1	0
		1	-	7	-	3														1	4	33	32	17	12	1
8		2	-	9	-	0											0	0	3	19	37	29	10	2	0	0
		1	-	8	-	2														1	8	23	36	24	7	1
7	.5	1	-	9	-	1														1	7	25	37	24	7	1
		0	-	8	-	3																		20	80
7		1	-	10	-	0													0	0	6	24	36	25	8	1
		0	-	9	-	2															2	6	12	37	29	14
6	.5	0	-	10	-	1																	11	40	37	11
6		0	-	11	-	0															0	0	3	15	44	31	6	0

Total:							0	0	1	2	4	10	28	3	3	16	15	10	5	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0