Toronto Blue Jays Playoff Chances 2018

Beat Cubs 205-172, playoff odds up 3.9 to 92.3%

8-1-0 .889

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Blue Jays finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

18.5	-19						In		100												109,861	*
18		10	-	1	-	0	In		99	1											463,693
		9	-	0	-	2	In		100												4,356
17	.5	9	-	1	-	1	In		98	2		0									139,971
		8	-	0	-	3	In		99	1											401
17		9	-	2	-	0	In		85	10	0	4									1,115,617
		8	-	1	-	2	In		91	7	0	2									19,024
		7	-	0	-	4	In		91	9											34
16	.5	8	-	2	-	1	In		67	17	0	16									295,598
		7	-	1	-	3	In		77	15	0	9									1,474
		6	-	0	-	5	In		75	25											4
16		8	-	3	-	0	99.9	%	38	28	4	30	0								1,488,468
		7	-	2	-	2	99.9		45	26	3	26	0								34,794
		6	-	1	-	4	In		55	19	4	23									84
15	.5	7	-	3	-	1	99.7		16	24	6	53	0								340,954
		6	-	2	-	3	99.7		20	26	6	48	0								2,287
		5	-	1	-	5	In		50		25	25									4
15		7	-	4	-	0	95.9		5	16	10	64	4	0							1,212,272
		6	-	3	-	2	96.9		7	18	10	63	3								33,899
		5	-	2	-	4	97.8		8	19	9	62	2								89
14	.5	6	-	4	-	1	89.2		1	6	9	73	11	0							236,519
		5	-	3	-	3	91.3		1	7	9	74	9								1,852
		4	-	2	-	5	66.7					67	33								3
14		6	-	5	-	0	75.2		0	2	7	66	25	0							628,848
		5	-	4	-	2	76.3		0	3	6	67	24	0							19,923
		4	-	3	-	4	76.6			5	8	64	23								77
13	.5	5	-	5	-	1	52.4		0	0	3	49	46	1							102,878
		4	-	4	-	3	52.6			0	3	49	45	2							862
		3	-	3	-	5	33.3					33	67								3
13		5	-	6	-	0	37.7		0	0	1	36	59	3	0						212,187
		4	-	5	-	2	38.4			0	2	37	58	3							7,024
		3	-	4	-	4	35.0					35	65								20
12	.5	4	-	6	-	1	16.3			0	0	16	70	13	0						28,310
		3	-	5	-	3	13.8				0	13	71	15							254
		2	-	4	-	5	Out						100								1
12		4	-	7	-	0	10.5			0	0	10	71	18	0						46,113
		3	-	6	-	2	10.1				0	10	70	20	0						1,509
		2	-	5	-	4	Out						100								5
11	.5	3	-	7	-	1	2.7				0	3	56	40	1						4,837
		2	-	6	-	3	5.0					5	60	35							40
11		3	-	8	-	0	1.4				0	1	49	46	4	0					6,419
		2	-	7	-	2	1.5					1	51	45	3						201
		1	-	6	-	4	Out							100							1
10	.5	2	-	8	-	1	0.2					0	31	57	11						520
		1	-	7	-	3	Out							100							4
10		2	-	9	-	0	Out						19	59	21	1					534
		1	-	8	-	2	Out						24	53	24						17
9	.5	1	-	9	-	1	Out						3	73	24						37
9		1	-	10	-	0	Out						3	16	65	16					31
8		0	-	11	-	0	Out						0	4	52	41	3				679

Total:							92.3	%	39	14	4	35	7	0	0	0	0				6,562,592

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24

19		11	-	0	-	0	100
18	.5	10	-	0	-	1	100	0
18		10	-	1	-	0	99	1	0
		9	-	0	-	2	92	8	0
17	.5	9	-	1	-	1	88	11	1	0
		8	-	0	-	3	59	32	8	0
17		9	-	2	-	0	83	16	1	0	0
		8	-	1	-	2	51	35	12	2	0
		7	-	0	-	4	18	24	29	12	15	3
16	.5	8	-	2	-	1	42	39	15	3	0	0
		7	-	1	-	3	12	30	31	20	7	0
		6	-	0	-	5	25			75
16		8	-	3	-	0	35	41	19	4	1	0			0
		7	-	2	-	2	8	26	34	23	8	1	0		0
		6	-	1	-	4		6	17	32	33	12
15	.5	7	-	3	-	1	6	23	34	25	10	2	0		0
		6	-	2	-	3	0	3	13	32	34	17	1		0
		5	-	1	-	5					25	50	25
15		7	-	4	-	0	4	19	33	27	11	2	0		4	0
		6	-	3	-	2	0	2	11	29	34	18	1	0	3	0
		5	-	2	-	4				8	30	45	15		1	1
14	.5	6	-	4	-	1	0	2	10	26	33	18	1	0	11	0
		5	-	3	-	3			0	5	25	47	14	0	8	0
		4	-	2	-	5							67		33
14		6	-	5	-	0	0	1	7	21	29	17	1	0	25	0	0
		5	-	4	-	2		0	0	4	20	39	13	0	23	1
		4	-	3	-	4					5	32	34	5	17	5	1
13	.5	5	-	5	-	1		0	0	3	13	27	9	0	45	2	0
		4	-	4	-	3				0	1	18	32	2	32	14	1	0
		3	-	3	-	5							33		33	33
13		5	-	6	-	0		0	0	2	9	20	7	0	59	3	0
		4	-	5	-	2				0	1	14	22	2	43	17	1	0
		3	-	4	-	4							20	15	5	40	15	5
12	.5	4	-	6	-	1				0	0	5	10	1	59	22	3	0	0
		3	-	5	-	3						1	9	4	16	43	21	5	1
12		4	-	7	-	0				0	0	3	6	0	63	24	3	0
		3	-	6	-	2						1	6	3	22	38	24	6	1	0
		2	-	5	-	4											60	40
11	.5	3	-	7	-	1						0	2	1	22	44	24	7	0	0
		2	-	6	-	3							3	3	3	15	30	40	5	3
11		3	-	8	-	0						0	1	0	23	42	26	7	1
		2	-	7	-	2							0	1	0	9	29	43	14	2
10	.5	2	-	8	-	1								0	2	13	32	36	15	2
		1	-	7	-	3												25	75
10		2	-	9	-	0									1	11	31	35	18	4	0
		1	-	8	-	2												12	41	47
9	.5	1	-	9	-	1												5	51	32	11
9		1	-	10	-	0												10	35	32	16	6
8		0	-	11	-	0														0	11	29	42	16	2

Total:							36	19	14	11	7	4	1	0	7	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0