Pittsburgh Penguins Playoff Chances 2015-2016

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.3 to 43.7%

4 points 2 2-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
New Jersey 3 San Jose 2	-0.2
Detroit 3 Carolina 2					+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Pittsburgh vs Toronto	+3.7+3.3+2.6-1.7-1.7-5.8		+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.2*-0.1-0.4		+0.4+0.3+0.3-0.2-0.2-0.6
NY Islanders vs San Jose	-0.3-0.4-0.6-0.1*-0.1+0.6				-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Chicago vs Columbus	+0.4+0.1-0.3-0.5-0.5-0.4				+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0
Washington vs Carolina					+0.0-0.0*-0.0-0.1-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Pittsburgh finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

120	-160						In		Yes		100																165	*
119		54	17		-	7	In		96.2	%	98		2														52	*
118		53	17		-	8	In		97.9		100																94	*
117		53	18		-	7	In		94.2		98		2														155	*
116		52	18		-	8	In		94.3		99	1	0														210	*
115		51	18		-	9	In		86.6		94	3	3														387	*
114		51	19		-	8	In		86.7		95	2	2														481	*
113		50	19		-	9	In		78.4		89	5	6		0												753	*
112		50	20		-	8	In		73.3		88	6	6		0												1,111	*
111		49	20		-	9	In		64.5		82	8	10		0												1,582	*
110		49	21		-	8	In		55.7		79	10	10	0	0												2,246	*
109		48	21		-	9	In		45.2		73	13	13	0	0												2,861	*
108		47	21		-	10	In		35.3		66	16	17	0	1												3,955	*
107		47	22		-	9	In		25.1		58	18	22	0	2		0										5,331	*
106		46	22		-	10	In		16.5		48	22	26	1	3		0										6,784	*
105		46	23		-	9	In		9.7		38	25	31	1	4		0										8,502	*
104		45	23		-	10	In		4.7		29	27	34	3	6		0										11,107	*
103		45	24		-	9	In		1.9		21	28	35	5	9	0	1	0									13,617	*
102		44	24		-	10	In		0.6		14	28	34	9	14	0	1	0									16,380	*
101		44	25		-	9	In		0.2		8	25	33	13	18	1	3	0									19,508	*
100		43	25		-	10	100.0	%	0.1		5	21	28	18	21	2	5	0	0								22,967	*
99		43	26		-	9	99.9		0.0		2	17	22	22	26	4	7	1	0	0							26,728	*
98		42	26		-	10	99.9		No		1	13	15	24	27	7	11	2	0								30,401	*
97		42	27		-	9	99.4		No		0	9	9	24	26	12	15	4	1	0	0						34,354	*
96		41	27		-	10	98.3		No		0	6	5	23	21	17	20	7	1	0	0	0					37,797	*
95		41	28		-	9	95.9		No		0	3	2	19	16	22	22	12	3	1	0						41,078	*
94		40	28		-	10	90.2		No		0	2	1	13	9	25	22	17	8	2	0	0					44,564	*
93		40	29		-	9	80.4		No			1	0	9	5	24	19	22	13	5	1	0	0	0			46,970	*
92		39	29		-	10	65.8		No			0	0	6	2	21	14	23	20	10	3	1	0	0	0		48,756	*
91		39	30		-	9	48.3		No			0	0	3	1	16	8	20	24	17	8	2	0	0	0		49,985	*
90		38	30		-	10	31.7		No			0		2	0	11	4	14	24	23	14	5	1	0	0		50,917	*
89		38	31		-	9	17.9		No			0		1	0	7	2	9	20	26	21	11	3	1	0		50,176	*
88		37	31		-	10	9.0		No			0		0	0	4	1	4	13	24	26	18	7	2	0	0	49,134	*
87		37	32		-	9	4.0		No					0	0	2	0	2	7	18	27	25	14	5	1	0	47,714	*
86		36	32		-	10	1.7		No					0	0	1	0	1	3	11	22	28	21	9	2	0	45,406	*
85		36	33		-	9	0.6		No					0		0	0	0	1	6	16	27	27	16	5	1	42,482	*
84		35	33		-	10	0.2		No					0		0	0	0	0	3	10	22	30	24	9	1	39,356	*
83		35	34		-	9	0.1		No							0		0	0	1	5	16	29	30	16	3	36,131	*
82		34	34		-	10	0.0		No							0			0	0	2	10	24	33	24	6	32,280	*
81		34	35		-	9	0.0		No							0			0	0	1	6	18	33	31	11	28,700	*
80		33	35		-	10	Out		No											0	0	3	12	30	37	18	24,772	*
79		33	36		-	9	Out		No											0	0	1	7	25	40	26	21,050	*
78		32	36		-	10	Out		No												0	1	4	19	42	34	18,188	*
77		32	37		-	9	Out		No												0	0	2	14	40	44	15,082	*
76		31	37		-	10	Out		No													0	1	9	37	53	12,514	*
75		31	38		-	9	Out		No													0	0	6	31	62	9,992	*
74		30	38		-	10	Out		No														0	3	26	71	7,891	*
73		30	39		-	9	Out		No														0	2	20	78	6,224	*
72		29	39		-	10	Out		No															1	16	83	4,890	*
71		29	40		-	9	Out		No															1	13	87	3,652	*
70		29	41		-	8	Out		No															0	8	92	2,775	*
69		28	41		-	9	Out		No															0	6	94	2,020	*
68		27	41		-	10	Out		No															0	4	96	1,504	*
67		27	42		-	9	Out		No																3	97	1,093	*
66		26	42		-	10	Out		No																3	97	718	*
65		26	43		-	9	Out		No																2	98	500	*
64		25	43		-	10	Out		No																1	99	317	*
63		25	44		-	9	Out		No																3	97	225	*
61	-62						Out		No																	100	261	*
60		24	46		-	8	Out		No																2	98	62	*
4	-59						Out		No																	100	193	*

Total:							43.7	%	1.2	%	3	4	5	6	6	7	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	1,035,100

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Detroit 3 Carolina 2	-0.0
New Jersey 3 San Jose 2	+0.0
Columbus 1 Toronto 2 (so)	*+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Pittsburgh vs Toronto	-0.7-0.7-0.6+0.3+0.3+1.2
Washington vs Carolina	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1-0.0
NY Islanders vs San Jose	+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Chicago vs Columbus	-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

120	-160						100
119		54	17		-	7	96	2			2
118		53	17		-	8	98	2
117		53	18		-	7	94	4			2
116		52	18		-	8	94	4	1		0
115		51	18		-	9	87	8	3		3
114		51	19		-	8	87	9	2		2
113		50	19		-	9	78	11	5		6				0
112		50	20		-	8	73	15	5	0	6				0
111		49	20		-	9	64	18	8	0	9	0			0
110		49	21		-	8	56	23	10	0	10	0	0		0
109		48	21		-	9	45	28	13	0	13	0	0		0
108		47	21		-	10	35	31	16	1	16	0	0		1
107		47	22		-	9	25	33	17	2	20	1	0		2	0			0
106		46	22		-	10	17	32	19	3	23	3	1		3				0
105		46	23		-	9	10	28	20	5	25	5	1		4	0			0
104		45	23		-	10	5	25	20	8	25	9	3	0	6	0			0
103		45	24		-	9	2	19	18	10	23	13	5	0	9	0	0		1		0
102		44	24		-	10	1	13	14	14	17	17	8	0	12	1	0		1	0	0
101		44	25		-	9	0	8	9	16	12	21	12	1	15	3	1		2	0	0
100		43	25		-	10	0	5	6	15	6	22	15	3	16	5	2	0	4	0	0		0
99		43	26		-	9	0	2	3	14	3	19	16	6	16	10	4	0	7	0	1	0	0	0
98		42	26		-	10		1	1	11	1	14	15	10	12	14	7	0	10	1	2	0	0
97		42	27		-	9		0	1	8	0	9	11	13	8	18	11	1	12	3	4	0	1	0	0
96		41	27		-	10		0	0	5	0	5	7	16	3	18	14	3	13	7	7	0	1	0	0	0
95		41	28		-	9		0	0	3	0	2	3	15	1	15	15	7	10	12	10	2	3	1	0
94		40	28		-	10		0	0	2		1	1	12	0	9	13	12	7	15	13	4	7	2	0	0	0
93		40	29		-	9			0	1		0	0	9	0	5	8	16	3	16	12	10	12	6	2	0	0	0
92		39	29		-	10				0		0	0	6	0	2	4	16	1	13	8	15	15	12	6	2	0	0	0
91		39	30		-	9				0		0	0	3		1	2	14	0	8	4	17	13	17	13	6	2	0	0	0
90		38	30		-	10				0			0	2		0	1	10	0	4	1	13	7	16	19	15	8	3	1	0	0	0
89		38	31		-	9				0				1		0	0	6	0	2	0	8	3	10	18	21	17	9	4	1	0	0
88		37	31		-	10				0				0		0	0	4		1	0	4	1	4	11	19	22	18	10	4	1	0	0	0
87		37	32		-	9								0		0	0	2		0	0	2	0	1	4	11	19	23	20	11	5	1	0	0
86		36	32		-	10								0		0		1		0	0	1	0	0	1	4	11	19	23	20	12	5	1	0	0	0
85		36	33		-	9								0				0		0		0	0	0	0	1	4	11	20	24	20	12	5	1	0	0
84		35	33		-	10								0				0		0		0		0	0	0	1	5	12	20	25	21	11	4	1	0
83		35	34		-	9												0				0		0	0	0	0	1	5	13	22	26	20	9	2	0
82		34	34		-	10												0								0	0	0	2	6	16	25	26	17	6	1
81		34	35		-	9												0									0	0	1	3	9	19	28	25	12	3
80		33	35		-	10																						0	0	1	4	13	25	31	20	6
79		33	36		-	9																							0	0	2	7	19	33	28	11
78		32	36		-	10																								0	1	3	13	30	36	17
77		32	37		-	9																								0	0	1	8	24	40	26
76		31	37		-	10																									0	1	4	19	40	37
75		31	38		-	9																									0	0	2	12	38	47
74		30	38		-	10																										0	1	7	34	57
73		30	39		-	9																										0	0	5	28	67
72		29	39		-	10																											0	3	22	75
71		29	40		-	9																											0	1	18	81
70		29	41		-	8																											0	1	13	86
69		28	41		-	9																												0	10	90
68		27	41		-	10																												0	6	94
67		27	42		-	9																												0	4	96
66		26	42		-	10																													4	96
65		26	43		-	9																													3	97
64		25	43		-	10																													2	98
63		25	44		-	9																													3	97
61	-62																																			100
60		24	46		-	8																													2	98
59		22	45		-	11																														100
58		22	46		-	10																													3	97
4	-57																																			100

Total:							1	2	2	3	2	3	2	4	2	3	3	4	2	4	3	4	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4