Carolina Hurricanes Playoff Chances 2015-2016

Lost to Detroit 2-3, playoff odds down 8.2 to 42%

2 points 1 3-0

Add your own league!

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Detroit 3 Carolina 2	-4.7		-0.5		-0.5
New Jersey 3 San Jose 2	-0.3				-0.0
Columbus 1 Toronto 2 (so)					-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Washington vs Carolina	-4.8-0.5-0.3+3.9+4.8+4.9		-0.3-0.1-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3		-0.5-0.1-0.0+0.4+0.5+0.5
NY Islanders vs San Jose	-0.4-0.5+0.1+0.1*+0.4+0.5				-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0*+0.0+0.1
Chicago vs Columbus	+0.4+0.1-0.3-0.6-0.3-0.4
Ottawa vs Nashville	-0.3-0.3+0.0+0.2-0.0+0.4
Arizona vs Boston	+0.3+0.2+0.0-0.3-0.2-0.4
Montreal vs Detroit					+0.0-0.1+0.0-0.0-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Carolina finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

121	-158						In		Yes		100																117	*
120		54	14		-	10	In		96.8	%	97		3														31	*
118	-119						In		96.4		100																112	*
117		54	17		-	7	In		97.2		98	2															108	*
116		53	17		-	8	In		93.3		98	0	1														208	*
115		52	17		-	9	In		92.6		97	2	1														323	*
114		52	18		-	8	In		84.6		94	1	5														408	*
113		51	18		-	9	In		80.7		91	4	5														617	*
112		51	19		-	8	In		74.8		88	5	6		0												920	*
111		50	19		-	9	In		65.2		84	9	7		0												1,377	*
110		50	20		-	8	In		58.4		79	11	10	0	0												1,899	*
109		49	20		-	9	In		47.4		73	12	14	0	0		0										2,506	*
108		49	21		-	8	In		36.5		66	16	16	0	1												3,464	*
107		48	21		-	9	In		26.0		58	20	21	0	1		0										4,553	*
106		48	22		-	8	In		17.0		49	23	25	1	2		0										6,046	*
105		47	22		-	9	In		9.8		38	26	30	1	4		0										7,747	*
104		47	23		-	8	In		5.1		30	28	33	3	6	0	0	0									9,960	*
103		46	23		-	9	In		2.1		21	28	36	5	9	0	1	0									12,130	*
102		46	24		-	8	In		0.6		15	27	36	8	13	0	1	0									14,865	*
101		45	24		-	9	100.0	%	0.2		8	25	34	12	17	1	2	0	0								18,245	*
100		45	25		-	8	100.0		0.0		5	22	29	17	21	2	4	0	0								21,351	*
99		44	25		-	9	100.0		0.0		2	18	22	21	25	4	7	1	0								24,967	*
98		43	25		-	10	99.9		No		1	13	16	23	27	7	11	2	0								28,542	*
97		43	26		-	9	99.5		No		0	9	10	25	26	11	15	4	0	0	0						32,763	*
96		42	26		-	10	98.6		No		0	6	5	23	22	17	19	7	1	0	0						36,078	*
95		42	27		-	9	96.1		No		0	4	2	19	16	22	22	12	3	1	0	0					39,575	*
94		41	27		-	10	90.9		No		0	2	1	14	10	25	22	17	7	2	0	0	0				42,799	*
93		41	28		-	9	81.5		No			1	0	10	5	24	19	22	13	4	1	0	0	0			45,853	*
92		40	28		-	10	67.2		No			1	0	6	2	21	14	23	19	10	3	1	0	0			47,977	*
91		40	29		-	9	50.3		No			0	0	3	1	16	9	21	24	17	7	2	0	0			49,783	*
90		39	29		-	10	33.2		No			0		2	0	11	5	16	24	23	13	5	1	0	0		50,793	*
89		39	30		-	9	19.2		No			0		1	0	7	2	9	20	26	21	10	3	0	0	0	50,615	*
88		38	30		-	10	9.7		No			0		0	0	4	1	5	14	24	26	17	7	2	0	0	50,199	*
87		38	31		-	9	4.3		No			0		0	0	2	0	2	8	18	27	24	13	4	1	0	48,643	*
86		37	31		-	10	1.8		No			0		0	0	1	0	1	4	12	23	28	21	9	2	0	46,346	*
85		37	32		-	9	0.7		No			0		0		0	0	0	1	7	17	27	27	15	4	0	43,900	*
84		36	32		-	10	0.2		No					0		0	0	0	0	3	11	23	30	23	9	1	40,788	*
83		36	33		-	9	0.1		No							0		0	0	1	6	17	29	29	15	3	37,990	*
82		35	33		-	10	0.0		No							0		0	0	0	3	11	25	33	23	6	33,976	*
81		35	34		-	9	0.0		No							0			0	0	1	6	18	34	31	10	30,440	*
80		34	34		-	10	0.0		No							0				0	0	3	12	30	37	17	26,249	*
79		34	35		-	9	Out		No											0	0	1	8	25	41	24	22,843	*
78		33	35		-	10	Out		No												0	1	5	20	42	33	19,469	*
77		33	36		-	9	Out		No												0	0	2	14	40	42	16,385	*
76		32	36		-	10	Out		No													0	1	10	37	52	13,626	*
75		32	37		-	9	Out		No													0	0	6	32	62	11,063	*
74		31	37		-	10	Out		No														0	4	27	69	8,640	*
73		31	38		-	9	Out		No														0	2	21	77	6,992	*
72		31	39		-	8	Out		No														0	1	16	83	5,359	*
71		30	39		-	9	Out		No														0	1	12	87	4,158	*
70		29	39		-	10	Out		No															0	10	90	3,157	*
69		29	40		-	9	Out		No															0	6	94	2,277	*
68		28	40		-	10	Out		No															0	5	95	1,753	*
67		28	41		-	9	Out		No															0	3	97	1,255	*
66		28	42		-	8	Out		No																2	98	888	*
65		27	42		-	9	Out		No																2	98	610	*
64		26	42		-	10	Out		No																1	99	446	*
63		26	43		-	9	Out		No																1	99	282	*
62		26	44		-	8	Out		No																1	99	177	*
60	-61						Out		No																	100	218	*
59		24	45		-	9	Out		No																2	98	60	*
2	-58						Out		No																	100	179	*

Total:							42.0	%	1.0	%	3	4	5	6	6	7	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	8	8	7	1,035,100

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Detroit 3 Carolina 2	+0.9
Columbus 1 Toronto 2 (so)	+0.1
New Jersey 3 San Jose 2	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Washington vs Carolina	+1.0*+0.1+0.1-0.8-1.0-1.0
Montreal vs Detroit	-0.0+0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1-0.0
Chicago vs Columbus	-0.1+0.0+0.1+0.1*+0.0+0.1
Pittsburgh vs Toronto	+0.0+0.1*+0.0-0.0+0.0-0.1
NY Islanders vs San Jose	+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1
Arizona vs Boston	-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

121	-158						100
120		54	14		-	10	97				3
119		54	15		-	9	98	3
118		54	16		-	8	96	4
117		54	17		-	7	97	1	2
116		53	17		-	8	93	5	0		1
115		52	17		-	9	93	4	2		1
114		52	18		-	8	85	9	1		5
113		51	18		-	9	81	11	4		5
112		51	19		-	8	75	13	5		6				0
111		50	19		-	9	65	19	9		7				0
110		50	20		-	8	58	21	11		9	0	0		0
109		49	20		-	9	47	26	12	0	14	0	0		0				0
108		49	21		-	8	37	30	16	1	16	0	0		1
107		48	21		-	9	26	32	18	1	20	1	0		1				0
106		48	22		-	8	17	32	20	2	23	3	1		2	0			0
105		47	22		-	9	10	29	21	4	25	5	1		4	0			0
104		47	23		-	8	5	25	21	7	25	8	3	0	6	0	0		0		0
103		46	23		-	9	2	19	18	10	23	13	5	0	9	0	0		1	0	0
102		46	24		-	8	1	14	14	13	18	17	8	0	12	1	0		1		0
101		45	24		-	9	0	8	10	15	13	21	11	1	15	3	1		2	0	0		0
100		45	25		-	8	0	5	7	16	7	22	15	2	17	5	2	0	4	0	0		0
99		44	25		-	9	0	2	4	14	3	20	16	5	16	9	3	0	6	0	1		0
98		43	25		-	10		1	2	12	1	15	14	9	13	14	7	0	9	1	2	0	0
97		43	26		-	9		0	1	8	0	9	11	14	8	18	11	1	12	3	4	0	0	0	0
96		42	26		-	10		0	0	6	0	5	7	16	4	18	14	3	13	7	6	0	1	0	0
95		42	27		-	9		0	0	4	0	2	4	15	1	15	15	7	11	11	10	1	3	1	0	0
94		41	27		-	10		0	0	2		1	2	12	0	10	13	12	7	15	13	4	7	2	0	0	0
93		41	28		-	9			0	1		0	0	9	0	5	9	16	3	16	12	9	11	5	2	0	0	0
92		40	28		-	10				1		0	0	6	0	2	5	16	1	13	9	15	15	11	5	1	0	0	0
91		40	29		-	9				0		0	0	3		1	2	14	0	9	4	17	13	17	12	5	2	0	0	0
90		39	29		-	10				0				2		0	1	10	0	5	1	14	8	16	19	14	7	2	1	0	0	0
89		39	30		-	9				0			0	1		0	0	7	0	2	0	9	3	11	18	21	15	8	3	1	0	0
88		38	30		-	10				0				0		0	0	4		1	0	4	1	4	12	20	22	17	9	4	1	0	0
87		38	31		-	9				0				0		0	0	2		0	0	2	0	1	5	12	20	23	18	11	4	1	0	0	0
86		37	31		-	10				0				0		0	0	1		0		1	0	0	1	5	12	20	23	20	11	4	1	0	0
85		37	32		-	9				0				0				0		0		0	0	0	0	1	5	12	20	24	20	11	4	1	0	0
84		36	32		-	10								0				0		0		0		0	0	0	2	5	12	21	25	20	10	3	1	0
83		36	33		-	9												0				0	0		0	0	0	2	6	14	23	26	18	8	2	0
82		35	33		-	10												0				0				0	0	0	2	7	17	25	26	16	5	1
81		35	34		-	9												0								0	0	0	1	3	9	20	29	25	11	2
80		34	34		-	10												0											0	1	5	13	26	30	20	5
79		34	35		-	9																							0	0	2	8	20	32	28	10
78		33	35		-	10																							0	0	1	4	14	30	35	16
77		33	36		-	9																								0	0	2	8	25	40	26
76		32	36		-	10																								0	0	1	5	19	41	35
75		32	37		-	9																									0	0	2	13	38	46
74		31	37		-	10																										0	1	9	35	55
73		31	38		-	9																											1	5	30	65
72		31	39		-	8																										0	0	2	24	74
71		30	39		-	9																										0	0	2	17	81
70		29	39		-	10																												1	14	85
69		29	40		-	9																											0	0	10	90
68		28	40		-	10																												0	8	92
67		28	41		-	9																												0	5	95
66		28	42		-	8																													3	97
65		27	42		-	9																													3	97
64		26	42		-	10																													2	98
63		26	43		-	9																													1	99
62		26	44		-	8																													2	98
60	-61																																			100
59		24	45		-	9																													2	98
2	-58																																			100

Total:							1	2	2	2	2	3	2	3	2	3	3	4	2	4	3	4	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5