Vancouver Canucks Playoff Chances 2015-2016

Plays St. Louis 10:00 PM, playoff odds up 2.1 to 57.8%

4 points 2 2-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
New Jersey 3 San Jose 2	+0.5				+0.0
Anaheim 2 Colorado 5	+0.3
Winnipeg 3 Calgary 0	*+0.2
Columbus 1 Toronto 2 (so)					-0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Vancouver vs St. Louis	+3.5+3.2+2.8-1.3-1.5-5.9		+0.6+0.6+0.4-0.4-0.4-0.9		+0.3+0.3+0.3-0.1-0.1-0.6

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
NY Islanders vs San Jose	+0.5+0.1-0.1-0.7*-0.5-0.4				+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.1*-0.1-0.0
Ottawa vs Nashville	+0.4-0.2-0.0-0.8*-0.1-0.3				+0.0-0.0+0.0-0.1*-0.0-0.0
Arizona vs Boston					-0.0-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Vancouver finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

121	-160						In		Yes		100																322	*
120		54	16		-	8	In		99.3	%	99	1															143	*
119		53	16		-	9	In		96.8		97	2	1														222	*
118		53	17		-	8	In		98.0		99	1															344	*
117		53	18		-	7	In		97.3		98	1	1														521	*
116		52	18		-	8	In		92.9		96	2	1														806	*
115		51	18		-	9	In		89.6		95	4	2														1,137	*
114		51	19		-	8	In		86.3		93	5	2		0												1,597	*
113		50	19		-	9	In		81.4		90	7	3		0												2,216	*
112		50	20		-	8	In		74.3		85	10	5	0	0												3,092	*
111		49	20		-	9	In		64.8		79	14	6		0												3,952	*
110		49	21		-	8	In		57.4		75	17	8	0	0												5,318	*
109		48	21		-	9	In		47.4		68	20	12	0	0												7,000	*
108		48	22		-	8	In		36.9		60	24	15	0	1		0										9,001	*
107		47	22		-	9	In		26.6		50	29	19	1	1		0										11,117	*
106		47	23		-	8	In		17.1		41	32	23	2	2	0	0										13,781	*
105		46	23		-	9	In		10.4		31	36	26	3	3	0	0										16,581	*
104		46	24		-	8	In		5.2		23	37	29	5	6	0	0	0									20,142	*
103		45	24		-	9	In		2.1		16	37	30	9	8	0	1	0									23,505	*
102		45	25		-	8	In		0.7		9	35	29	13	12	1	2	0									27,118	*
101		44	25		-	9	100.0	%	0.2		5	31	26	19	15	2	3	0	0								31,213	*
100		44	26		-	8	100.0		0.0		3	26	21	24	19	3	4	0	0								35,047	*
99		43	26		-	9	99.9		0.0		1	20	15	28	21	6	7	1	0	0							38,413	*
98		43	27		-	8	99.7		0.0		0	15	9	30	22	11	10	2	0	0							41,862	*
97		42	27		-	9	99.2		No		0	10	5	29	19	17	14	5	1	0	0						44,870	*
96		42	28		-	8	97.5		No		0	6	3	25	15	23	17	8	2	0	0						47,407	*
95		41	28		-	9	94.1		No		0	4	1	20	10	27	19	13	5	1	0	0					49,272	*
94		41	29		-	8	87.3		No			2	0	15	6	28	18	18	9	3	0	0	0				50,363	*
93		40	29		-	9	76.5		No			1	0	10	3	27	14	21	15	6	1	0	0				50,267	*
92		39	29		-	10	61.8		No			1	0	7	1	23	10	20	21	12	4	1	0				50,037	*
91		39	30		-	9	45.9		No			0	0	4	0	18	6	18	25	19	8	2	0	0			48,929	*
90		39	31		-	8	30.8		No			0		2	0	12	3	13	24	25	14	5	1	0			47,755	*
89		38	31		-	9	18.8		No			0		1	0	8	1	8	20	28	22	9	2	0			44,980	*
88		37	31		-	10	9.9		No			0		0	0	5	1	4	14	27	28	16	4	0			41,840	*
87		37	32		-	9	5.2		No			0		0	0	3	0	2	9	22	31	23	9	1			38,692	*
86		36	32		-	10	2.4		No					0		2	0	1	5	16	30	29	15	3			35,394	*
85		36	33		-	9	0.9		No					0		1	0	0	2	10	25	34	22	6			32,099	*
84		35	33		-	10	0.5		No							0		0	1	6	19	34	30	10			28,089	*
83		35	34		-	9	0.1		No							0		0	0	3	13	31	36	16			24,360	*
82		34	34		-	10	0.1		No							0		0	0	1	9	27	41	23			20,743	*
81		34	35		-	9	0.0		No							0			0	1	5	21	42	32			17,536	*
80		33	35		-	10	0.0		No							0			0	0	3	15	42	39			14,745	*
79		33	36		-	9	Out		No											0	1	10	38	50			11,971	*
78		33	37		-	8	Out		No											0	1	7	35	58			9,712	*
77		32	37		-	9	Out		No											0	0	4	29	66			7,585	*
76		32	38		-	8	Out		No												0	3	24	74			6,140	*
75		31	38		-	9	Out		No													2	19	79			4,755	*
74		31	39		-	8	Out		No													1	15	84			3,499	*
73		30	39		-	9	Out		No													0	10	90			2,692	*
72		30	40		-	8	Out		No													0	8	91			2,015	*
71		29	40		-	9	Out		No													0	7	93			1,533	*
70		29	41		-	8	Out		No														4	96			1,059	*
69		28	41		-	9	Out		No														4	96			724	*
68		28	42		-	8	Out		No													0	2	98			488	*
67		27	42		-	9	Out		No														2	98			314	*
66		27	43		-	8	Out		No														0	100			242	*
64	-65						Out		No															100			289	*
63		25	44		-	9	Out		No														1	99			69	*
4	-62						Out		No															100			185	*

Total:							57.8	%	2.9	%	6	9	6	10	6	10	6	6	7	7	8	7	7	6			1,035,100

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Columbus 1 Toronto 2 (so)	+0.2
New Jersey 3 San Jose 2	-0.1
Winnipeg 3 Calgary 0	-0.1
Anaheim 2 Colorado 5	-0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Vancouver vs St. Louis	-0.7-0.7-0.5+0.3+0.3+1.2
Los Angeles vs Minnesota	+0.0+0.1+0.1-0.0+0.0-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Arizona vs Boston	+0.0+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.0-0.1
NY Islanders vs San Jose	-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Ottawa vs Nashville	-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1-0.0+0.0
Montreal vs Detroit	-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1-0.0
Chicago vs Columbus	+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0
Calgary vs Edmonton	-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

121	-160						100
120		54	16		-	8	99		1
119		53	16		-	9	97	0	2		1
118		53	17		-	8	98	1	1
117		53	18		-	7	97	1	1		1
116		52	18		-	8	93	3	2		1
115		51	18		-	9	90	5	4		2
114		51	19		-	8	86	6	5		2				0
113		50	19		-	9	81	8	7		3				0
112		50	20		-	8	74	11	10	0	5	0	0		0
111		49	20		-	9	65	14	14	0	6				0
110		49	21		-	8	57	18	16	0	8	0	0		0
109		48	21		-	9	47	21	20	0	11	0	0		0
108		48	22		-	8	37	23	23	1	14	0	0		1				0
107		47	22		-	9	27	24	28	1	18	1	1		1				0
106		47	23		-	8	17	24	29	3	21	2	2		2		0		0
105		46	23		-	9	10	21	31	5	24	3	3		3	0	0		0
104		46	24		-	8	5	18	30	8	24	5	5	0	6	0	0		0		0
103		45	24		-	9	2	14	26	11	22	8	8	0	8	0	0		1		0
102		45	25		-	8	1	9	21	14	18	11	13	0	11	1	1		2	0	0
101		44	25		-	9	0	5	15	16	13	13	18	1	14	1	2		3	0	0		0
100		44	26		-	8	0	3	9	17	7	13	22	2	16	3	3		4	0	0		0
99		43	26		-	9	0	1	5	15	3	12	23	5	16	6	6	0	7	0	1		0	0
98		43	27		-	8	0	0	2	13	1	8	21	9	13	9	11	0	10	1	2	0	0	0
97		42	27		-	9		0	1	9	0	5	16	13	8	11	16	1	12	2	4	0	1	0	0
96		42	28		-	8		0	0	6	0	3	10	15	4	11	20	3	13	4	8	0	2	0	0
95		41	28		-	9		0	0	4	0	1	5	15	1	9	21	6	12	7	12	1	5	1	0	0
94		41	29		-	8			0	2		0	2	13	0	6	17	11	7	10	15	3	9	3	1	0	0
93		40	29		-	9			0	1		0	1	10	0	3	12	15	4	11	14	7	14	7	2	0	0	0
92		39	29		-	10				1		0	0	6	0	1	6	17	1	9	9	11	17	14	6	1	0	0	0
91		39	30		-	9				0		0	0	4		0	3	15	0	6	4	14	15	19	13	5	2	0	0
90		39	31		-	8				0			0	2		0	1	11	0	3	1	11	9	18	20	13	6	2	1	0	0	0
89		38	31		-	9				0			0	1		0	0	8	0	1	0	8	4	12	19	20	14	7	3	1	0	0
88		37	31		-	10				0			0	0		0	0	5		1	0	4	1	5	12	20	22	16	9	3	1	0	0
87		37	32		-	9				0				0		0	0	3		0	0	2	0	2	5	12	20	22	18	10	4	1	0	0	0
86		36	32		-	10								0			0	2		0		1	0	0	2	5	12	20	23	19	11	4	1	0	0
85		36	33		-	9								0				1		0		0	0	0	0	1	5	12	21	24	19	11	4	1	0	0
84		35	33		-	10												0				0		0	0	0	2	5	13	22	25	19	10	3	1	0
83		35	34		-	9												0				0			0	0	0	2	6	15	23	25	18	8	2	0
82		34	34		-	10												0				0				0	0	1	2	7	18	26	25	15	5	1
81		34	35		-	9												0									0	0	1	3	10	21	28	24	11	2
80		33	35		-	10												0										0	0	1	5	14	27	30	19	5
79		33	36		-	9																							0	0	2	8	21	33	28	9
78		33	37		-	8																								0	1	4	14	31	34	16
77		32	37		-	9																								0	0	2	8	26	40	24
76		32	38		-	8																									0	1	5	19	41	35
75		31	38		-	9																										0	2	14	40	44
74		31	39		-	8																										0	1	9	35	56
73		30	39		-	9																											0	5	30	65
72		30	40		-	8																											0	3	24	73
71		29	40		-	9																											0	2	22	76
70		29	41		-	8																												1	15	84
69		28	41		-	9																												0	12	88
68		28	42		-	8																												0	7	93
67		27	42		-	9																													6	94
66		27	43		-	8																													5	95
65		26	43		-	9																													5	95
64		25	43		-	10																													2	98
63		25	44		-	9																													1	99
4	-62																																			100

Total:							3	3	5	4	3	3	5	4	3	3	5	5	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2