Calgary Flames Playoff Chances 2015-2016

Lost to Winnipeg 0-3, playoff odds down 13.5 to 51.7%

5 points 2 1-1

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Winnipeg 3 Calgary 0	-4.2		-1.2		-0.4
New Jersey 3 San Jose 2	+0.4				+0.1
Anaheim 2 Colorado 5	*+0.2				+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Los Angeles vs Minnesota	-0.2-0.5-0.1+0.1-0.4+0.4				-0.0-0.1-0.0+0.0-0.0+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Calgary vs Edmonton	+4.1+3.4+2.7-1.5-1.6-6.1		+0.5+0.6+0.3-0.3*-0.1-0.7		+0.4+0.3+0.3-0.2-0.1-0.6
NY Islanders vs San Jose	+0.4-0.0+0.1-0.6-0.3-0.4				+0.0-0.0+0.0*-0.1-0.0-0.0
Ottawa vs Nashville	+0.4+0.1+0.2-0.1-0.5-0.4
Florida vs Dallas	+0.4-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.4-0.4
Arizona vs Boston	-0.3-0.3-0.1+0.0+0.2+0.4				-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Calgary finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

124	-161						In		Yes		100																111	*
123		55	15		-	8	In		94.7	%	95	5															19	*
119	-122						In		98.5		100																334	*
118		52	17		-	9	In		95.1		97	3															226	*
117		52	18		-	8	In		94.7		97	3															340	*
116		51	18		-	9	In		91.8		97	2	1														514	*
115		50	18		-	10	In		90.2		95	4	2														787	*
114		50	19		-	9	In		88.1		94	4	2		0												1,095	*
113		49	19		-	10	In		79.7		89	7	4														1,552	*
112		49	20		-	9	In		74.7		86	9	5														2,182	*
111		49	21		-	8	In		66.8		81	12	6	0	0												2,923	*
110		48	21		-	9	In		57.2		74	17	9	0	0												3,985	*
109		48	22		-	8	In		46.5		67	20	12	0	0		0										5,245	*
108		47	22		-	9	In		37.1		59	25	15	0	1												6,865	*
107		46	22		-	10	In		25.7		49	30	19	1	1		0										8,510	*
106		46	23		-	9	In		16.8		40	33	23	2	2	0	0										10,854	*
105		45	23		-	10	In		9.6		30	36	26	3	4	0	0										13,468	*
104		45	24		-	9	In		5.2		22	37	29	5	6	0	0	0									16,296	*
103		45	25		-	8	In		2.2		15	36	30	9	9	0	1	0									19,586	*
102		44	25		-	9	In		0.8		9	34	29	14	13	1	2	0									22,997	*
101		43	25		-	10	100.0	%	0.2		5	30	26	19	16	2	3	0	0								26,441	*
100		43	26		-	9	100.0		0.0		2	25	20	24	19	4	5	1	0								30,195	*
99		42	26		-	10	99.9		0.0		1	19	15	27	22	7	8	1	0	0							34,310	*
98		42	27		-	9	99.6		0.0		0	14	9	29	21	11	11	3	0	0							37,884	*
97		41	27		-	10	99.0		No		0	10	5	28	19	18	15	5	1	0	0						41,470	*
96		41	28		-	9	97.2		No		0	6	2	24	15	23	18	9	2	0	0						44,182	*
95		40	28		-	10	93.3		No		0	4	1	19	10	27	19	14	5	1	0	0	0				46,914	*
94		40	29		-	9	86.0		No			2	0	14	5	28	18	19	10	3	1	0					48,715	*
93		39	29		-	10	75.1		No			1	0	10	3	26	14	21	16	7	2	0	0				49,925	*
92		39	30		-	9	59.5		No			1	0	6	1	21	10	21	22	13	4	1	0	0			50,741	*
91		38	30		-	10	43.6		No			0		3	0	16	6	18	25	20	9	2	0	0			50,508	*
90		38	31		-	9	28.4		No			0		2	0	11	3	12	24	26	16	5	1	0			49,490	*
89		37	31		-	10	16.7		No			0		1	0	7	1	7	20	28	23	10	2	0			47,678	*
88		37	32		-	9	8.9		No			0		0	0	4	0	4	14	27	28	17	5	1			45,553	*
87		36	32		-	10	4.4		No			0		0		2	0	2	8	21	31	24	9	1			42,504	*
86		36	33		-	9	2.1		No					0		1	0	1	4	16	29	30	16	3			39,242	*
85		35	33		-	10	0.8		No					0		1	0	0	2	10	24	34	23	6			35,759	*
84		35	34		-	9	0.4		No					0		0	0	0	1	5	19	34	31	11			32,492	*
83		34	34		-	10	0.1		No					0		0		0	0	3	13	31	37	16			28,457	*
82		34	35		-	9	0.1		No							0		0	0	1	8	26	41	24			24,896	*
81		33	35		-	10	0.0		No							0			0	1	5	20	43	32			21,266	*
80		33	36		-	9	0.0		No							0			0	0	3	15	41	41			18,111	*
79		32	36		-	10	Out		No											0	1	10	38	50			15,003	*
78		32	37		-	9	Out		No											0	1	6	34	59			12,429	*
77		31	37		-	10	Out		No											0	0	4	29	67			10,068	*
76		31	38		-	9	Out		No												0	2	23	74			8,061	*
75		30	38		-	10	Out		No												0	2	19	80			6,258	*
74		30	39		-	9	Out		No												0	1	14	85			4,895	*
73		29	39		-	10	Out		No												0	0	10	89			3,727	*
72		29	40		-	9	Out		No													0	7	93			2,930	*
71		28	40		-	10	Out		No													0	5	94			2,127	*
70		28	41		-	9	Out		No													0	3	97			1,478	*
69		27	41		-	10	Out		No														3	97			1,105	*
68		27	42		-	9	Out		No														2	98			762	*
67		26	42		-	10	Out		No														1	99			533	*
66		26	43		-	9	Out		No															100			339	*
65		26	44		-	8	Out		No														0	100			243	*
64		25	44		-	9	Out		No														1	99			163	*
5	-63						Out		No															100			357	*

Total:							51.7	%	2.1	%	4	7	5	9	5	9	6	6	7	8	8	8	8	8			1,035,100

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Winnipeg 3 Calgary 0	+0.9
New Jersey 3 San Jose 2	-0.1
Anaheim 2 Colorado 5	-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Los Angeles vs Minnesota	+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0+0.0-0.1
Vancouver vs St. Louis	+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Calgary vs Edmonton	-0.8-0.7-0.5+0.3+0.3+1.2
Arizona vs Boston	+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1
NY Islanders vs San Jose	-0.1+0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Ottawa vs Nashville	-0.0+0.0-0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

124	-161						100
123		55	15		-	8	95		5
121	-122						100
120		52	15		-	11	98	2
119		53	17		-	8	98	2
118		52	17		-	9	95	2	3
117		52	18		-	8	95	2	3
116		51	18		-	9	92	5	2		1
115		50	18		-	10	90	4	4		2
114		50	19		-	9	88	6	4		2				0
113		49	19		-	10	80	9	7		4
112		49	20		-	9	75	11	9		5	0
111		49	21		-	8	67	15	12	0	6	0	0		0
110		48	21		-	9	57	16	17	0	9	0	0		0
109		48	22		-	8	46	21	20	0	12	0	0		0				0
108		47	22		-	9	37	22	24	1	15	0	0		1
107		46	22		-	10	26	23	28	2	18	1	1		1				0
106		46	23		-	9	17	24	30	3	21	2	2		2		0		0
105		45	23		-	10	10	21	31	5	23	3	3	0	4	0	0		0	0
104		45	24		-	9	5	17	30	8	24	5	5	0	6	0	0		0		0
103		45	25		-	8	2	12	26	11	23	7	9	0	9	0	0		1		0
102		44	25		-	9	1	8	20	14	18	11	13	0	12	1	1		1	0	0
101		43	25		-	10	0	5	14	16	12	13	18	1	15	1	2		3	0	0		0
100		43	26		-	9	0	2	9	16	7	13	22	2	16	3	4		5	0	1		0
99		42	26		-	10	0	1	5	14	3	12	22	5	16	6	7	0	7	0	1		0	0
98		42	27		-	9	0	0	2	11	1	8	20	9	13	9	11	0	11	1	3	0	0	0
97		41	27		-	10		0	1	9	0	5	15	13	8	11	17	1	13	2	5	0	1	0	0
96		41	28		-	9		0	0	6	0	2	9	15	4	11	20	3	13	4	9	0	2	0	0
95		40	28		-	10		0	0	4		1	5	15	1	9	20	6	11	7	13	1	5	1	0	0	0
94		40	29		-	9			0	2		0	2	12	0	5	16	11	7	11	15	3	10	3	1	0	0
93		39	29		-	10			0	1		0	1	9	0	3	11	15	3	11	14	7	15	7	2	0	0
92		39	30		-	9				1		0	0	6		1	6	16	1	9	9	12	18	14	6	2	0	0	0
91		38	30		-	10				0			0	3		0	2	14	0	6	4	14	15	19	13	6	2	0	0	0
90		38	31		-	9				0			0	2		0	1	10	0	3	1	11	9	18	21	14	7	2	1	0	0	0
89		37	31		-	10				0			0	1		0	0	7	0	1	0	7	4	11	19	21	16	8	3	1	0	0
88		37	32		-	9				0				0		0	0	4		0	0	4	1	5	12	20	22	17	10	4	1	0	0
87		36	32		-	10				0				0			0	2		0	0	2	0	1	5	12	20	23	19	11	4	1	0	0
86		36	33		-	9								0			0	1		0	0	1	0	0	1	5	12	19	23	20	12	5	1	0	0	0
85		35	33		-	10								0				1		0		0	0	0	0	2	5	12	20	24	20	11	4	1	0
84		35	34		-	9								0				0		0		0		0	0	0	2	5	13	21	25	20	10	3	1	0
83		34	34		-	10								0				0				0				0	0	2	6	14	23	26	19	8	2	0
82		34	35		-	9												0				0				0	0	1	2	7	17	26	26	16	5	1
81		33	35		-	10												0									0	0	1	3	10	20	28	24	11	2
80		33	36		-	9												0									0	0	0	1	5	14	26	30	20	5
79		32	36		-	10																						0	0	0	2	8	21	32	27	10
78		32	37		-	9																							0	0	1	4	14	30	34	16
77		31	37		-	10																								0	0	2	8	25	39	26
76		31	38		-	9																									0	1	5	19	41	35
75		30	38		-	10																										0	2	13	39	46
74		30	39		-	9																									0		1	9	34	56
73		29	39		-	10																										0	0	5	28	66
72		29	40		-	9																										0	0	3	24	73
71		28	40		-	10																												1	18	81
70		28	41		-	9																												1	14	85
69		27	41		-	10																												1	11	88
68		27	42		-	9																												0	8	92
67		26	42		-	10																													5	95
66		25	42		-	11																												0	3	96
65		26	44		-	8																													2	98
64		25	44		-	9																													2	98
63		24	44		-	10																													2	98
62		25	46		-	7																														100
61		24	46		-	8																													2	98
5	-60																																			100

Total:							2	2	4	3	3	2	5	4	3	2	5	4	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3