Detroit Red Wings Playoff Chances 2015-2016

Beat Carolina 3-2, playoff odds up 4.6 to 69.6%

6 points 3 1-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Detroit 3 Carolina 2	+3.4		+0.7		+0.4

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Montreal vs Detroit	-4.3-0.2-0.2+3.7+4.2+4.4		-1.2-0.1+0.1+1.0+1.2+1.2		-0.5-0.0*-0.0+0.4+0.5+0.5
Ottawa vs Nashville	-0.3-0.1-0.3+0.5-0.1+0.5				-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0*+0.0+0.1
Arizona vs Boston	+0.3-0.1+0.2-0.2-0.2-0.4
Chicago vs Columbus	+0.3+0.1-0.0-0.2-0.4-0.3
Florida vs Dallas					-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Detroit finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

126	-162						In		Yes		100																140	*
125		55	14		-	9	In		97.6	%	98	2															41	*
124		55	15		-	8	In		97.1		99	1															69	*
121	-123						In		99.8		100																569	*
120		53	17		-	8	In		97.6		99	0	0														370	*
119		52	17		-	9	In		98.9		100	0	0														632	*
118		52	18		-	8	In		98.0		99	1															918	*
117		51	18		-	9	In		95.2		98	1	1														1,290	*
116		51	19		-	8	In		93.4		98	1	1														1,831	*
115		50	19		-	9	In		89.6		96	3	1														2,425	*
114		50	20		-	8	In		85.9		95	4	2														3,344	*
113		49	20		-	9	In		81.4		92	5	3		0												4,523	*
112		49	21		-	8	In		74.9		89	7	4		0												5,927	*
111		48	21		-	9	In		66.4		85	9	6		0												7,587	*
110		48	22		-	8	In		58.4		81	12	7	0	0												9,811	*
109		47	22		-	9	In		46.9		76	15	9	0	0												12,216	*
108		47	23		-	8	In		37.0		68	18	13	0	1		0										14,741	*
107		46	23		-	9	In		26.5		60	22	17	0	1		0										17,537	*
106		46	24		-	8	In		17.4		51	25	21	1	2		0										21,607	*
105		45	24		-	9	100.0	%	10.5		42	28	25	1	3	0	0		0								24,930	*
104		45	25		-	8	In		5.5		32	31	29	2	5		0	0									29,011	*
103		44	25		-	9	In		2.3		24	32	32	4	7	0	1	0									32,594	*
102		44	26		-	8	In		0.8		16	31	33	7	11	0	1	0									36,145	*
101		43	26		-	9	In		0.2		10	29	32	11	15	0	2	0									39,738	*
100		43	27		-	8	100.0		0.0		6	25	29	15	20	1	4	0	0								43,347	*
99		42	27		-	9	99.9		No		3	20	23	19	24	3	7	1	0	0							45,833	*
98		42	28		-	8	99.8		No		1	15	17	23	26	5	11	2	0	0							47,840	*
97		41	28		-	9	99.5		No		0	11	10	23	26	9	16	4	1	0							49,593	*
96		41	29		-	8	98.5		No		0	7	6	22	23	14	20	7	1	0	0						50,239	*
95		40	29		-	9	96.3		No		0	4	3	18	17	18	24	12	3	1	0	0					51,110	*
94		40	30		-	8	91.1		No		0	2	1	14	11	21	24	18	7	2	0	0					50,294	*
93		39	30		-	9	82.1		No			1	0	9	6	21	21	23	13	4	1	0	0				48,649	*
92		39	31		-	8	68.8		No			1	0	6	3	18	17	25	20	9	2	0	0		0		46,587	*
91		38	31		-	9	51.8		No			0	0	3	1	14	10	23	25	16	6	2	0	0			43,907	*
90		38	32		-	8	34.4		No			0	0	2	0	9	6	18	26	22	12	4	1	0			41,007	*
89		37	32		-	9	19.8		No			0		1	0	6	2	11	22	26	19	9	3	0	0		37,835	*
88		36	32		-	10	10.0		No			0		0	0	3	1	6	16	26	25	16	6	1	0	0	34,099	*
87		36	33		-	9	4.6		No			0		0	0	2	0	2	9	20	27	23	12	4	1	0	30,440	*
86		36	34		-	8	1.8		No					0		1	0	1	5	13	24	27	19	8	2	0	26,275	*
85		35	34		-	9	0.6		No					0		0	0	0	2	7	18	28	26	14	4	0	22,918	*
84		34	34		-	10	0.2		No					0		0		0	1	4	12	24	30	21	8	1	19,377	*
83		34	35		-	9	0.1		No							0		0	0	2	6	17	30	28	14	3	16,508	*
82		33	35		-	10	0.0		No							0		0	0	1	3	12	26	32	21	6	13,378	*
81		33	36		-	9	0.0		No							0				0	2	7	20	33	29	10	11,060	*
80		33	37		-	8	Out		No											0	0	3	13	31	36	16	8,905	*
79		32	37		-	9	Out		No											0	0	2	9	27	39	24	6,935	*
78		31	37		-	10	Out		No												0	1	5	20	42	32	5,395	*
77		31	38		-	9	Out		No													0	2	14	42	41	4,232	*
76		30	38		-	10	Out		No													0	1	10	37	51	3,166	*
75		30	39		-	9	Out		No														1	7	33	59	2,395	*
74		30	40		-	8	Out		No														0	5	28	67	1,721	*
73		29	40		-	9	Out		No														0	2	22	76	1,256	*
72		29	41		-	8	Out		No															1	20	79	823	*
71		28	41		-	9	Out		No															1	14	85	632	*
70		28	42		-	8	Out		No															0	10	90	433	*
69		27	42		-	9	Out		No																7	93	317	*
68		27	43		-	8	Out		No																5	95	190	*
67		26	43		-	9	Out		No																2	98	120	*
66		25	43		-	10	Out		No																3	97	76	*
65		26	45		-	7	Out		No																2	98	51	*
58	-64						Out		No																	100	72	*
57		22	49		-	7	Out		No																50	50	2
6	-56						Out		No																	100	87	*

Total:							69.6	%	5.3	%	11	10	10	8	9	7	8	7	6	5	5	4	4	3	2	2	1,035,100

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Detroit 3 Carolina 2	-0.7
Columbus 1 Toronto 2 (so)	*+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Montreal vs Detroit	+1.0+0.1+0.1-0.8-0.9-1.0
Ottawa vs Nashville	+0.1+0.0+0.1-0.0+0.0-0.1
Florida vs Dallas	+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1
Arizona vs Boston	-0.1+0.0-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1
Pittsburgh vs Toronto	-0.1+0.1-0.0+0.0*+0.0+0.0
Tampa Bay vs Buffalo	-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1+0.1*-0.0
Chicago vs Columbus	-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

126	-162						100
125		55	14		-	9	98		2
124		55	15		-	8	97	1	1
122	-123						100
121		54	17		-	7	100	0
120		53	17		-	8	98	2	0		0
119		52	17		-	9	99	1	0		0
118		52	18		-	8	98	1	1
117		51	18		-	9	95	3	1		1
116		51	19		-	8	93	4	1		1
115		50	19		-	9	90	7	3		1
114		50	20		-	8	86	9	4		2
113		49	20		-	9	81	10	5		3				0
112		49	21		-	8	75	14	7	0	4				0
111		48	21		-	9	66	19	9	0	6	0			0
110		48	22		-	8	58	23	11	0	7	0	0		0
109		47	22		-	9	47	29	14	0	9	0	0		0
108		47	23		-	8	37	31	18	1	13	0	0		1				0
107		46	23		-	9	27	34	20	2	16	1	0		1	0			0
106		46	24		-	8	17	34	22	3	19	2	1		2				0
105		45	24		-	9	11	31	23	5	21	4	1	0	3	0	0		0				0
104		45	25		-	8	6	27	22	8	22	7	2	0	5	0			0		0
103		44	25		-	9	2	21	20	12	21	11	4	0	7	0	0		1		0
102		44	26		-	8	1	15	16	15	17	16	7	0	10	1	0		1	0	0
101		43	26		-	9	0	10	11	17	12	20	10	1	13	2	0	0	2	0	0
100		43	27		-	8	0	6	7	18	7	22	13	2	15	5	1		4	0	0	0	0
99		42	27		-	9		3	4	16	3	20	15	5	15	9	3	0	6	0	1	0	0	0
98		42	28		-	8		1	2	14	1	16	14	9	12	14	5	0	9	1	2	0	0	0
97		41	28		-	9		0	1	10	0	10	10	13	8	18	8	1	12	3	4	0	1	0
96		41	29		-	8		0	0	7	0	6	6	15	4	19	11	3	13	7	7	0	1	0	0
95		40	29		-	9		0	0	4		3	3	15	1	16	12	6	12	12	11	2	3	1	0	0	0
94		40	30		-	8		0	0	2		1	1	12	0	11	11	10	8	16	13	5	7	2	0	0
93		39	30		-	9			0	1		0	0	9	0	6	7	14	4	17	13	10	11	5	1	0	0	0
92		39	31		-	8			0	1		0	0	6		3	4	14	1	15	9	16	15	11	5	1	0	0	0	0
91		38	31		-	9				0		0	0	3		1	1	12	0	10	4	19	13	16	11	5	2	0	0	0
90		38	32		-	8				0		0	0	2		0	0	9	0	6	1	16	8	17	18	13	6	2	0	0	0
89		37	32		-	9				0				1		0	0	5		2	0	11	4	11	19	20	15	8	3	1	0	0
88		36	32		-	10				0				0		0	0	3		1	0	5	1	5	13	20	22	16	9	4	1	0	0		0
87		36	33		-	9				0				0		0	0	2		0	0	2	0	1	5	13	20	23	18	10	4	1	0	0
86		36	34		-	8								0				1		0		1	0	0	2	5	13	20	23	19	11	4	1	0	0
85		35	34		-	9								0				0		0		0		0	0	2	5	12	21	24	19	10	4	1	0
84		34	34		-	10								0				0				0			0	0	2	6	13	22	24	19	10	3	0	0
83		34	35		-	9												0				0				0	0	2	6	14	24	25	18	8	2	0
82		33	35		-	10												0				0				0	0	1	2	8	17	26	26	15	5	1
81		33	36		-	9												0								0		0	1	4	10	20	28	23	11	2
80		33	37		-	8																						0	0	1	5	13	26	30	19	5
79		32	37		-	9																							0	0	2	8	21	32	27	9
78		31	37		-	10																							0	0	1	4	14	31	34	16
77		31	38		-	9																									0	2	9	25	40	25
76		30	38		-	10																									0	1	4	19	41	34
75		30	39		-	9																										0	2	14	39	45
74		30	40		-	8																											1	10	35	54
73		29	40		-	9																											0	5	31	63
72		29	41		-	8																												2	25	72
71		28	41		-	9																												2	19	79
70		28	42		-	8																												1	14	85
69		27	42		-	9																												0	10	89
68		27	43		-	8																												1	8	91
67		27	44		-	7																													5	95
66		25	43		-	10																													4	96
65		26	45		-	7																													4	96
64		24	44		-	10																													3	97
58	-63																																			100
57		22	49		-	7																													50	50
6	-56																																			100

Total:							5	6	5	5	4	6	4	4	4	5	3	3	3	4	3	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1