Toronto Maple Leafs Playoff Chances 2015-2016

Beat Columbus 2-1 (so), playoff odds up 1.2 to 31.8%

3 points 1 2-1

Add your own league!

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Columbus 1 Toronto 2 (so)	+4.0		+0.1		+0.5
New Jersey 3 San Jose 2	-0.2

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Pittsburgh vs Toronto	-4.1-0.3-0.5+4.1+4.5+4.5		-0.2-0.0-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2		-0.5-0.0-0.0+0.4+0.5+0.5
Arizona vs Boston	+0.3-0.1-0.2-0.7*-0.1-0.2				+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1*-0.0-0.0
Ottawa vs Nashville	-0.2-0.4-0.1-0.0-0.2+0.5
Florida vs Dallas	-0.2+0.0-0.2+0.1-0.0+0.4
Chicago vs Columbus					+0.0-0.0+0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

118	-159						In		98.8	%	100																160	*
117		53	17		-	8	In		95.2		97	3															63	*
116		52	17		-	9	In		97.9		98	1	1														96	*
115		52	18		-	8	In		87.5		97	3	1														144	*
114		51	18		-	9	In		84.5		94	4	3														200	*
113		50	18		-	10	In		79.8		92	5	3														321	*
112		50	19		-	9	In		75.6		88	6	6														464	*
111		49	19		-	10	In		63.6		83	9	8		0												717	*
110		49	20		-	9	In		58.0		82	9	8		0												1,030	*
109		49	21		-	8	In		43.5		71	15	13	0	1												1,443	*
108		48	21		-	9	In		34.9		66	18	15		1												2,010	*
107		47	21		-	10	In		25.0		57	21	20	0	2	0											2,745	*
106		47	22		-	9	In		16.6		48	24	25	1	3		0										3,748	*
105		46	22		-	10	In		8.8		39	25	30	1	4		0										5,039	*
104		46	23		-	9	In		4.4		28	27	34	3	7		1	0									6,515	*
103		45	23		-	10	In		1.9		20	26	37	5	11	0	1	0									8,173	*
102		45	24		-	9	In		0.7		14	26	35	8	15	0	2	0									10,358	*
101		44	24		-	10	100.0	%	0.1		8	23	33	11	20	1	4	0	0								12,650	*
100		44	25		-	9	100.0		0.0		4	20	28	14	25	1	7	1	0								15,520	*
99		43	25		-	10	99.9		No		2	15	21	18	28	3	11	2	0	0							18,807	*
98		43	26		-	9	99.6		No		1	11	14	20	29	6	16	4	0	0							22,370	*
97		42	26		-	10	98.8		No		0	7	8	19	27	10	21	7	1	0	0						25,764	*
96		42	27		-	9	97.1		No		0	4	4	17	22	14	25	11	3	0	0	0					29,864	*
95		41	27		-	10	93.3		No		0	2	2	13	16	16	27	17	6	1	0	0					33,658	*
94		41	28		-	9	86.1		No		0	1	1	9	9	17	25	23	11	3	0	0	0				37,007	*
93		40	28		-	10	74.8		No		0	1	0	6	5	16	21	27	17	6	1	0	0				40,195	*
92		40	29		-	9	59.1		No			0	0	3	2	13	15	26	24	12	4	1	0	0			43,687	*
91		39	29		-	10	41.6		No			0		2	1	9	9	22	27	20	9	3	0	0			46,685	*
90		39	30		-	9	25.5		No			0	0	1	0	6	4	15	26	25	16	6	1	0	0		48,524	*
89		38	30		-	10	13.8		No			0		0	0	3	2	9	20	27	22	12	4	1	0	0	49,676	*
88		38	31		-	9	6.3		No			0		0		2	1	4	13	24	27	19	8	2	0	0	50,347	*
87		37	31		-	10	2.4		No					0	0	1	0	2	7	17	27	26	15	5	1	0	50,225	*
86		37	32		-	9	0.9		No					0	0	0	0	0	3	11	22	28	22	10	2	0	49,684	*
85		36	32		-	10	0.2		No					0		0	0	0	1	5	15	27	28	18	6	1	47,892	*
84		36	33		-	9	0.1		No					0		0		0	0	2	9	21	30	25	11	2	46,296	*
83		35	33		-	10	0.0		No							0		0	0	1	5	15	28	30	17	4	43,481	*
82		35	34		-	9	0.0		No									0	0	0	2	9	23	33	25	7	40,336	*
81		34	34		-	10	Out		No										0	0	1	5	17	33	32	12	36,473	*
80		34	35		-	9	Out		No										0	0	0	2	11	29	38	19	33,253	*
79		33	35		-	10	Out		No												0	1	7	24	41	27	29,269	*
78		33	36		-	9	Out		No												0	0	4	19	42	35	25,622	*
77		32	36		-	10	Out		No												0	0	2	13	40	45	22,157	*
76		32	37		-	9	Out		No													0	1	9	35	55	18,844	*
75		31	37		-	10	Out		No													0	0	5	31	64	15,630	*
74		31	38		-	9	Out		No													0	0	3	25	71	12,867	*
73		30	38		-	10	Out		No														0	2	21	77	10,650	*
72		30	39		-	9	Out		No														0	1	16	83	8,519	*
71		29	39		-	10	Out		No														0	1	12	87	6,513	*
70		29	40		-	9	Out		No															0	10	90	5,180	*
69		28	40		-	10	Out		No															0	7	93	3,801	*
68		28	41		-	9	Out		No															0	5	95	2,930	*
67		27	41		-	10	Out		No															0	3	97	2,144	*
66		27	42		-	9	Out		No																2	98	1,666	*
65		26	42		-	10	Out		No																2	98	1,111	*
64		26	43		-	9	Out		No																0	100	839	*
63		26	44		-	8	Out		No																1	99	534	*
62		25	44		-	9	Out		No																0	100	382	*
61		25	45		-	8	Out		No																0	100	252	*
60		24	45		-	9	Out		No																1	100	200	*
3	-59						Out		No																	100	370	*

Total:							31.8	%	0.6	%	2	3	3	3	5	4	6	7	7	7	7	8	9	9	10	11	1,035,100

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Columbus 1 Toronto 2 (so)	-0.9
Detroit 3 Carolina 2	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Pittsburgh vs Toronto	+0.9+0.0+0.1-0.8-0.9-0.9
Chicago vs Columbus	-0.0+0.1-0.0+0.1*+0.1+0.0
Ottawa vs Nashville	+0.0+0.1-0.0+0.0+0.1-0.1
Arizona vs Boston	-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1*+0.0+0.0
NY Islanders vs San Jose	+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.1*+0.0-0.0
Florida vs Dallas	+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0+0.0-0.1
Montreal vs Detroit	-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0*-0.0
Calgary vs Edmonton	-0.0+0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

119	-159						100
118		53	16		-	9	93	7
117		53	17		-	8	95	2	3
116		52	17		-	9	98		1		1
115		52	18		-	8	88	9	3		1
114		51	18		-	9	85	9	4		3
113		50	18		-	10	80	12	5		3
112		50	19		-	9	76	13	6		6
111		49	19		-	10	64	20	9	0	7	0			0
110		49	20		-	9	58	24	9	0	8	0			0
109		49	21		-	8	43	28	14	1	12	0	0		1
108		48	21		-	9	35	31	17	1	15	1			1
107		47	21		-	10	25	32	19	1	19	1	0		2		0
106		47	22		-	9	17	31	21	2	22	3	1		3	0			0
105		46	22		-	10	9	30	20	5	25	5	1		4	0			0
104		46	23		-	9	4	24	20	7	25	9	3		7	0			1		0
103		45	23		-	10	2	18	16	10	24	13	5	0	11	0	0		1		0
102		45	24		-	9	1	13	13	13	17	18	8	0	14	1	0		2	0	0
101		44	24		-	10	0	8	8	14	12	21	10	1	17	3	1		4	0	0		0
100		44	25		-	9	0	4	5	14	6	22	12	2	19	6	1	0	6	0	1		0
99		43	25		-	10		2	3	12	2	19	13	5	17	11	3	0	10	1	2	0	0	0
98		43	26		-	9		1	1	10	1	14	12	8	13	16	6	0	14	2	4	0	0	0
97		42	26		-	10		0	0	6	0	8	8	11	8	19	9	1	17	5	7	0	1	0	0
96		42	27		-	9		0	0	4	0	4	5	12	3	19	11	3	16	9	11	1	3	0	0	0
95		41	27		-	10		0	0	2	0	2	2	11	1	15	11	5	13	14	15	3	5	1	0	0
94		41	28		-	9		0	0	1		1	1	8	0	9	9	9	7	18	17	6	10	3	0	0	0
93		40	28		-	10		0		1		0	0	6	0	5	5	11	3	18	15	12	15	8	2	0	0
92		40	29		-	9				0		0	0	3	0	2	2	11	1	14	9	17	17	14	7	2	0	0		0
91		39	29		-	10				0			0	2		1	1	8	0	9	4	18	14	19	15	7	3	1	0	0
90		39	30		-	9				0		0	0	1		0	0	5	0	4	1	14	8	17	21	16	9	3	1	0	0	0
89		38	30		-	10				0				0		0	0	3		2	0	8	3	10	18	22	18	10	4	1	0	0	0
88		38	31		-	9				0				0			0	2		1	0	4	1	4	11	19	22	19	12	5	1	0	0
87		37	31		-	10								0		0	0	1		0	0	2	0	1	4	11	19	23	20	13	5	2	0	0	0	0
86		37	32		-	9								0		0		0		0		0	0	0	1	4	10	19	23	21	13	6	2	0	0
85		36	32		-	10								0				0		0		0		0	0	1	4	11	19	24	21	13	5	1	0	0
84		36	33		-	9								0				0				0			0	0	1	4	11	20	25	22	12	4	1	0
83		35	33		-	10												0				0			0	0	0	1	5	12	22	26	20	10	3	0
82		35	34		-	9																0				0	0	0	2	6	15	25	27	18	7	1
81		34	34		-	10																					0	0	0	3	8	19	28	26	13	3
80		34	35		-	9																					0	0	0	1	4	12	25	31	21	6
79		33	35		-	10																							0	0	1	6	19	32	29	11
78		33	36		-	9																							0	0	0	3	12	29	37	18
77		32	36		-	10																								0	0	1	7	23	41	27
76		32	37		-	9																									0	1	4	17	41	37
75		31	37		-	10																									0	0	2	11	38	49
74		31	38		-	9																									0	0	1	7	34	58
73		30	38		-	10																											0	5	28	67
72		30	39		-	9																											0	3	23	74
71		29	39		-	10																										0	0	1	18	81
70		29	40		-	9																											0	1	14	86
69		28	40		-	10																												0	10	90
68		28	41		-	9																												0	7	93
67		27	41		-	10																												0	5	95
66		27	42		-	9																													3	97
65		26	42		-	10																												0	2	98
64		26	43		-	9																													1	99
63		26	44		-	8																													1	99
62		25	44		-	9																													0	100
61		25	45		-	8																													1	99
60		24	45		-	9																													1	99
59		23	45		-	10																													1	99
3	-58																																			100

Total:							1	1	1	2	1	2	1	2	2	3	2	2	2	3	3	4	3	3	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	6	6	7	7