St. Louis Blues Playoff Chances 2015-2016

Plays at Vancouver 10:00 PM, playoff odds down 0.2 to 41.7%

4 points 1 1-2

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
New Jersey 3 San Jose 2	+0.2
Anaheim 2 Colorado 5	*-0.2				-0.0
Winnipeg 3 Calgary 0					-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Vancouver vs St. Louis	-4.4-0.3-0.4+4.2+4.7+5.0		-0.4-0.1-0.1+0.4+0.4+0.4		-0.4*-0.0-0.0+0.4+0.4+0.4

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Ottawa vs Nashville	+0.5+0.3-0.3-0.1-0.4-0.6
Chicago vs Columbus	-0.3-0.1-0.2*+0.1+0.7+0.4
Florida vs Dallas	+0.4+0.1-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.5
NY Islanders vs San Jose	+0.3-0.1+0.2-0.3+0.1-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the St. Louis finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

119	-160						In		99.3	%	100																267	*
118		52	16		-	10	In		96.1		99	1															103	*
117		52	17		-	9	In		95.4		97	1	2														174	*
116		53	19		-	6	In		91.9		95	1	4														247	*
115		51	18		-	9	In		90.3		95	3	2														422	*
114		51	19		-	8	In		88.2		95	3	3														642	*
113		50	19		-	9	In		82.7		90	4	5														891	*
112		50	20		-	8	In		75.6		88	5	7		0												1,272	*
111		49	20		-	9	In		66.9		81	8	11		0												1,792	*
110		48	20		-	10	In		56.0		74	11	15		1												2,431	*
109		48	21		-	9	In		47.1		68	12	18	0	1												3,300	*
108		48	22		-	8	In		36.4		59	15	24	0	2	0	0										4,456	*
107		47	22		-	9	In		26.1		49	18	29	1	3		0										5,918	*
106		47	23		-	8	In		16.4		40	21	32	1	6	0	0										7,490	*
105		46	23		-	9	In		9.9		32	21	36	2	9	0	1	0									9,624	*
104		45	23		-	10	In		4.6		22	22	39	4	12	0	2	0									11,832	*
103		45	24		-	9	100.0	%	2.0		14	21	39	5	17	0	3	0	0								14,737	*
102		44	24		-	10	100.0		0.7		9	19	35	9	22	1	5	1	0								17,639	*
101		44	25		-	9	100.0		0.1		5	15	30	12	27	1	8	1	0								21,156	*
100		43	25		-	10	99.8		0.0		2	12	23	15	31	3	12	2	0								24,556	*
99		43	26		-	9	99.7		0.0		1	9	16	17	31	5	17	4	0	0							28,377	*
98		42	26		-	10	99.0		0.0		0	6	9	16	29	8	22	7	1	0							32,258	*
97		42	27		-	9	97.7		No		0	3	5	15	25	12	27	11	2	0	0						35,586	*
96		41	27		-	10	94.9		No		0	2	2	11	18	15	29	17	5	1	0	0					39,636	*
95		41	28		-	9	88.9		No		0	1	1	8	11	16	29	23	9	2	0	0					42,322	*
94		40	28		-	10	79.9		No		0	0	0	5	6	15	25	28	15	4	1	0	0				45,257	*
93		40	29		-	9	67.3		No			0	0	3	3	13	19	30	22	9	2	0	0				47,572	*
92		39	29		-	10	51.3		No			0	0	2	1	9	12	27	28	15	5	1	0	0			49,802	*
91		39	30		-	9	35.3		No			0	0	1	0	6	7	21	30	22	10	3	0	0			50,501	*
90		38	30		-	10	21.5		No			0		0	0	4	3	14	28	28	16	6	1	0			50,743	*
89		38	31		-	9	11.7		No			0		0	0	2	1	8	22	29	24	11	3	0			50,111	*
88		37	31		-	10	5.6		No					0	0	1	0	4	14	27	29	18	5	1			48,649	*
87		37	32		-	9	2.4		No					0		0	0	2	8	21	31	25	10	2			46,769	*
86		36	32		-	10	0.8		No					0		0	0	1	4	15	29	31	17	3			44,448	*
85		36	33		-	9	0.3		No					0		0	0	0	2	9	24	34	24	7			41,294	*
84		35	33		-	10	0.1		No							0	0	0	1	5	17	34	31	11			37,924	*
83		35	34		-	9	0.0		No					0		0	0	0	0	2	12	31	38	17			34,273	*
82		34	34		-	10	0.0		No							0		0	0	1	8	25	41	25			30,689	*
81		34	35		-	9	Out		No										0	0	4	19	43	34			27,038	*
80		33	35		-	10	Out		No										0	0	2	14	41	42			23,108	*
79		33	36		-	9	Out		No											0	1	9	38	52			19,795	*
78		32	36		-	10	Out		No											0	0	6	33	60			16,660	*
77		32	37		-	9	Out		No											0	0	3	28	69			13,876	*
76		31	37		-	10	Out		No												0	2	23	75			11,421	*
75		31	38		-	9	Out		No												0	1	19	80			9,247	*
74		30	38		-	10	Out		No													1	14	85			7,197	*
73		30	39		-	9	Out		No													0	10	89			5,540	*
72		29	39		-	10	Out		No													0	8	92			4,287	*
71		29	40		-	9	Out		No													0	6	94			3,297	*
70		28	40		-	10	Out		No													0	4	96			2,486	*
69		28	41		-	9	Out		No														4	96			1,736	*
68		27	41		-	10	Out		No														2	98			1,266	*
67		26	41		-	11	Out		No														1	99			931	*
66		26	42		-	10	Out		No														1	99			649	*
65		26	43		-	9	Out		No														1	99			447	*
64		25	43		-	10	Out		No														1	99			308	*
63		25	44		-	9	Out		No														0	100			213	*
62		25	45		-	8	Out		No														1	99			113	*
4	-61						Out		No															100			325	*

Total:							41.7	%	1.3	%	3	3	5	4	6	4	8	9	9	9	9	10	11	11			1,035,100

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Winnipeg 3 Calgary 0	+0.0
Anaheim 2 Colorado 5	+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Vancouver vs St. Louis	+0.8+0.0+0.0-0.8-0.9-1.0
Los Angeles vs Minnesota	-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Ottawa vs Nashville	-0.1-0.0+0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1
Florida vs Dallas	-0.1-0.0+0.0*+0.0+0.0+0.1
Chicago vs Columbus	+0.0+0.0+0.0*+0.0-0.1-0.1
Arizona vs Boston	-0.0+0.1-0.0+0.0*+0.0+0.0
Washington vs Carolina	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

120	-160						100
119		53	16		-	9	97	3
118		52	16		-	10	96	3	1
117		52	17		-	9	95	2	1		2
116		53	19		-	6	92	3	1		4
115		51	18		-	9	90	5	3		2
114		51	19		-	8	88	6	3		3
113		50	19		-	9	83	8	4		5
112		50	20		-	8	76	12	5		7				0
111		49	20		-	9	67	14	8	0	11				0
110		48	20		-	10	56	18	11	0	15	0			1
109		48	21		-	9	47	21	12	0	18	0	0		1
108		48	22		-	8	36	22	15	0	23	0	0		2		0		0
107		47	22		-	9	26	23	17	1	28	1	1		3				0
106		47	23		-	8	16	24	19	2	30	2	1		6	0	0		0
105		46	23		-	9	10	22	18	3	32	4	2		9		0		1		0
104		45	23		-	10	5	17	17	4	31	7	4	0	12	0	0		2		0
103		45	24		-	9	2	12	15	7	28	11	5	0	17	0	0		3		0		0
102		44	24		-	10	1	8	11	8	21	13	9	0	21	1	1		5	0	1		0
101		44	25		-	9	0	5	7	8	14	16	11	1	25	3	1		8	0	1		0
100		43	25		-	10	0	2	4	8	7	16	14	2	26	5	3	0	12	0	2		0
99		43	26		-	9	0	1	2	7	3	13	13	3	23	9	5	0	17	1	4	0	0	0
98		42	26		-	10	0	0	1	5	1	9	11	5	17	12	8	0	21	2	7	0	1	0
97		42	27		-	9		0	0	3	0	5	8	7	10	15	11	1	23	4	11	0	2	0	0
96		41	27		-	10		0	0	2	0	2	4	7	4	14	13	2	22	7	17	1	5	1	0	0
95		41	28		-	9		0	0	1	0	1	2	6	1	10	12	4	17	12	21	2	9	2	0	0
94		40	28		-	10		0	0	0		0	1	5	0	6	9	6	10	15	23	6	15	4	1	0	0
93		40	29		-	9				0		0	0	3	0	3	5	8	4	14	19	11	20	10	3	0	0	0
92		39	29		-	10				0		0	0	2		1	2	7	1	11	11	16	22	17	8	2	0	0	0	0
91		39	30		-	9				0		0	0	1		0	1	5	0	7	5	17	17	22	16	7	2	0	0	0
90		38	30		-	10				0				0		0	0	3	0	3	1	13	10	20	22	16	8	3	1	0	0
89		38	31		-	9				0				0		0	0	2	0	1	0	8	4	12	20	22	17	9	4	1	0	0
88		37	31		-	10								0		0	0	1		0	0	4	1	5	12	20	23	18	10	4	1	0	0	0
87		37	32		-	9								0			0	0		0	0	2	0	1	5	12	19	23	19	11	5	1	0	0
86		36	32		-	10								0				0		0		1	0	0	1	5	11	20	24	20	12	5	1	0	0
85		36	33		-	9								0				0		0		0		0	0	1	5	11	20	24	20	12	4	1	0	0
84		35	33		-	10												0		0		0			0	0	1	5	12	20	25	21	11	4	1	0
83		35	34		-	9								0				0		0		0	0		0	0	0	2	5	13	23	26	19	9	2	0
82		34	34		-	10												0				0				0	0	0	2	7	16	26	26	17	6	1
81		34	35		-	9																					0	0	1	3	9	20	29	25	12	2
80		33	35		-	10																					0	0	0	1	5	13	26	30	20	5
79		33	36		-	9																						0	0	0	2	7	20	32	28	10
78		32	36		-	10																							0	0	1	4	14	29	36	17
77		32	37		-	9																							0	0	0	1	8	24	40	26
76		31	37		-	10																									0	1	4	18	41	36
75		31	38		-	9																									0	0	2	13	39	45
74		30	38		-	10																										0	1	9	34	56
73		30	39		-	9																											0	5	29	65
72		29	39		-	10																											0	3	24	73
71		29	40		-	9																											0	2	18	80
70		28	40		-	10																												1	15	84
69		28	41		-	9																												0	10	89
68		27	41		-	10																												0	9	91
67		26	41		-	11																													5	95
66		26	42		-	10																												0	4	96
65		26	43		-	9																													4	96
64		26	44		-	8																													2	98
63		25	44		-	9																													0	100
62		25	45		-	8																													2	98
4	-61																																			100

Total:							1	1	1	1	3	2	2	2	4	3	3	2	5	3	5	4	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4