Boston Bruins Playoff Chances 2015-2016

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.05 to 43.8%
4 points   1 1-2

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy100.0*Average seed
New Jersey 3 San Jose 2 -0.3
Detroit 3 Carolina 2 *+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy100.0*Average seed
Arizona vs Boston-4.2*+0.0*+0.1+4.2+4.4+4.9
-0.4*-0.1*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.5
-0.4*+0.0*+0.0+0.4+0.5+0.5
Florida vs Dallas-0.3-0.5*-0.2*-0.1*+0.1+0.6
-0.0-0.1-0.0*+0.0*+0.0+0.1
Ottawa vs Nashville-0.2*-0.2*-0.1*-0.1*+0.1+0.4
-0.0-0.0*-0.0*+0.0+0.0+0.1
Chicago vs Columbus+0.2*+0.1*-0.1*+0.1*-0.2-0.3
+0.0*+0.0*-0.0*+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Pittsburgh vs Toronto+0.0*-0.0-0.0*-0.0-0.1-0.0
Montreal vs Detroit+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0*+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Boston finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy12345678910111213141516Count
120-160In99.5%100188*
1195316-9In97.099167*
1185317-8In98.1991107*
1175217-9In96.39812163*
1165117-10In95.19820243*
1155118-9In87.596220368*
1145119-8In85.29532541*
1135019-9In80.89154786*
1124919-10In71.387761,227*
1114920-9In66.78577001,701*
1104820-10In55.98011902,329*
1094821-9In45.6721513013,147*
1084822-8In36.0661716014,308*
1074722-9In24.45621210205,634*
1064622-10In15.84824251207,269*
1054623-9In9.4392629140009,368*
1044624-8In4.82928333600011,535*
1034524-9In1.920283651101014,126*
1024424-10100.0%0.7142735714020017,091*
1014425-9100.00.2824331119130020,444*
1004325-10100.00.1521281424161023,724*
994326-999.9No2162119283101027,756*
984226-1099.7No11115212961430031,289*
974227-999.0No0892027919610035,508*
964127-1097.6No055182214241020038,907*
954128-994.4No0321416172616510042,459*
944028-1088.0No21101019252210200044,927*
934029-977.4No0106518212616510047,536*
923929-1062.0No00421415262311310049,102*
913930-944.3No0021109222718820050,521*
903830-1028.4No00107516262514510050,463*
893831-915.3No00042921272211310050,232*
883731-107.2No00021414252718820048,611*
873732-93.1No00010281827251451047,100*
863632-101.1No000141223292192044,563*
853633-90.4No000016172727165142,245*
843533-100.1No00003102330239138,305*
833534-90.0No00001516293016335,124*
823434-100.0No000210253323731,364*
813435-90.0No000161933311127,308*
803335-10OutNo0031230371723,972*
793336-90.0No0001825402520,154*
783236-10OutNo01419423417,094*
773237-9OutNo00213404414,429*
763137-10OutNo0019365311,706*
753138-9OutNo0631629,605*
743038-10OutNo0426707,603*
733039-9OutNo0222765,844*
722939-10OutNo0117824,525*
712940-9OutNo113873,443*
702840-10OutNo09902,583*
692841-9OutNo07931,895*
682741-10OutNo5951,384*
672742-9OutNo3971,004*
662642-10OutNo298681*
652643-9OutNo199461*
642543-10OutNo199308*
632443-11OutNo100233*
622545-8OutNo199142*
4-61OutNo100348*
Total:43.8%1.2%34556577777777761,035,100

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday100.0*Lottery seed
New Jersey 3 San Jose 2 +0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Arizona vs Boston+0.9*-0.0*+0.0-0.9-0.9-1.0
Florida vs Dallas+0.0+0.1*+0.0*-0.0+0.0-0.1
Pittsburgh vs Toronto-0.0*+0.0*+0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.0
Montreal vs Detroit-0.0*+0.0+0.1*+0.1*+0.0*-0.0
Ottawa vs Nashville+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1
Tampa Bay vs Buffalo-0.0*+0.1-0.1*+0.0+0.0*+0.0
Chicago vs Columbus-0.0*-0.0*+0.0*-0.0*+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
121-160100
1205517-6982
1195316-99711
1185317-89811
1175217-996112
1165117-1095320
1155118-9888220
1145119-8851032
1135019-9811054
1124919-10711676
1114920-9671970700
1104820-105624110900
1094821-9462614012001
1084822-8363016116101
1074722-92432202191020
1064622-1016322132231200
1054623-9930215235140000
1044624-85242072583060000
1034524-921817112313401000100
1024424-10113141318177013102000
1014425-908915122110116313000
1004325-100561572112218616010
994326-923133181451711309110
984226-1011101141281315601323000
974227-9007099118199115460100
964127-1000505513419113158101200
954128-90030221211511613141425100
944028-1002119010910817166920000
934029-901006056123181412147200
923929-10000402311114918171362000
913930-9000201190941814181472000
903830-100001006051158172015831000
893831-900004020931019221794100
883731-10000021041411192318114100
873732-9000010201411192320125100
863632-1000001001511192320125100
853633-90000001511202420125100
843533-10000000151221252111410
833534-90000002513222619920
823434-100000261626261661
813435-9000139202925122
803335-100014132631205
793336-90002720322910
783236-10001313303617
773237-90017244027
763137-10014184137
753138-902133847
743038-100183456
733039-90043065
722939-100032374
712940-9021980
702840-1011386
692841-911090
682741-100792
672742-9595
662642-10496
652643-9298
642543-10298
632443-11100
622545-8298
4-61100
Total:122223233423343434444444444444