Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Sports Club Stats, which I have open
in like seven browser tabs always
-Katie Baker

Ottawa Senators Playoff Chances 2015-2016

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.3 to 62.2%

6 points 3 2-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Detroit 3 Carolina 2	*-0.1				-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Ottawa vs Nashville	+3.4+3.3+2.7-1.2-1.1-5.5		+0.7+0.6+0.5-0.5-0.3-1.1		+0.4+0.4+0.3-0.1-0.1-0.6
Arizona vs Boston	+0.5+0.0-0.3-0.7*-0.5-0.4				+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0
Florida vs Dallas	-0.3-0.2-0.3+0.5-0.0+0.5				-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1
NY Islanders vs San Jose	-0.3-0.2-0.3+0.0+0.4+0.4
Montreal vs Detroit					+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.1*+0.0
Pittsburgh vs Toronto					+0.0*-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Ottawa finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

120	-160						In		Yes		100																613	*
119		53	17		-	7	In		99.3	%	100	0															289	*
118		52	17		-	8	In		96.6		100	0															443	*
117		52	18		-	7	In		96.3		98	1	0														723	*
116		51	18		-	8	In		93.5		98	2	0														940	*
115		51	19		-	7	In		90.4		96	2	1														1,420	*
114		50	19		-	8	In		85.4		95	3	2														2,100	*
113		49	19		-	9	In		81.4		92	5	3														2,791	*
112		49	20		-	8	In		74.9		89	7	4		0												3,816	*
111		48	20		-	9	In		66.0		85	9	6	0	0												5,041	*
110		48	21		-	8	In		56.8		80	11	8	0	0												6,572	*
109		47	21		-	9	In		47.1		74	14	11	0	0		0										8,401	*
108		47	22		-	8	In		36.1		67	18	14	0	1		0										10,618	*
107		46	22		-	9	In		25.8		58	22	19	0	1		0										13,096	*
106		46	23		-	8	In		16.7		50	25	22	1	2		0										16,043	*
105		45	23		-	9	In		9.4		40	28	27	1	4	0	0										19,332	*
104		45	24		-	8	In		4.9		30	30	31	3	6	0	0	0									22,712	*
103		44	24		-	9	In		2.1		22	31	34	4	9	0	1	0									26,481	*
102		44	25		-	8	In		0.7		15	29	34	8	13	0	2	0									30,367	*
101		43	25		-	9	100.0	%	0.2		9	27	33	12	17	0	3	0	0								34,066	*
100		43	26		-	8	100.0		0.0		5	23	28	16	21	1	5	0	0								38,272	*
99		42	26		-	9	99.9		No		2	18	22	20	25	3	8	1	0	0							41,388	*
98		42	27		-	8	99.8		No		1	13	16	22	27	6	12	2	0	0							43,934	*
97		41	27		-	9	99.4		No		0	9	10	22	27	10	17	5	1	0							47,150	*
96		41	28		-	8	98.2		No		0	6	5	20	23	14	22	9	2	0	0	0					49,565	*
95		40	28		-	9	95.4		No		0	3	2	17	17	18	25	14	4	1	0	0					50,514	*
94		40	29		-	8	89.8		No		0	2	1	12	11	20	24	20	8	2	0	0	0				50,871	*
93		39	29		-	9	80.4		No		0	1	0	8	6	20	21	24	14	5	1	0	0				50,846	*
92		39	30		-	8	66.2		No			0	0	5	3	16	16	26	21	10	3	0	0	0			49,868	*
91		38	30		-	9	48.6		No			0	0	3	1	13	10	22	26	17	7	2	0	0			48,168	*
90		38	31		-	8	32.1		No			0	0	1	0	8	5	17	26	23	13	5	1	0	0		45,849	*
89		37	31		-	9	17.7		No			0	0	1	0	5	2	10	22	27	21	10	3	1	0		43,188	*
88		37	32		-	8	8.9		No			0		0	0	3	1	5	15	25	26	17	7	2	0	0	39,927	*
87		36	32		-	9	3.8		No					0		1	0	2	8	19	27	24	13	4	1	0	35,869	*
86		36	33		-	8	1.4		No					0		1	0	1	4	13	24	28	20	9	2	0	32,372	*
85		35	33		-	9	0.5		No					0		0	0	0	2	7	17	27	27	15	4	1	28,703	*
84		35	34		-	8	0.2		No					0		0		0	1	3	11	23	29	22	9	1	24,649	*
83		34	34		-	9	0.1		No							0		0	0	1	6	17	29	29	14	3	21,268	*
82		34	35		-	8	0.0		No							0			0	0	3	11	25	32	22	6	17,944	*
81		33	35		-	9	Out		No										0	0	1	6	20	33	29	10	15,051	*
80		32	35		-	10	Out		No											0	0	3	13	31	36	16	12,142	*
79		32	36		-	9	Out		No											0	0	1	8	25	41	24	9,848	*
78		32	37		-	8	Out		No												0	1	5	19	42	33	7,836	*
77		31	37		-	9	Out		No												0	0	2	14	41	42	6,192	*
76		31	38		-	8	Out		No													0	1	10	38	51	4,792	*
75		30	38		-	9	Out		No													0	1	5	33	61	3,533	*
74		30	39		-	8	Out		No														0	4	28	68	2,733	*
73		29	39		-	9	Out		No														0	3	22	75	2,067	*
72		29	40		-	8	Out		No															2	16	82	1,382	*
71		28	40		-	9	Out		No															1	12	87	996	*
70		28	41		-	8	Out		No															1	8	91	737	*
69		27	41		-	9	Out		No															0	7	93	484	*
68		26	41		-	10	Out		No																7	93	344	*
67		26	42		-	9	Out		No																3	97	261	*
66		26	43		-	8	Out		No																1	99	143	*
65		25	43		-	9	Out		No																1	99	82	*
6	-64						Out		No																	100	268	*

Total:							62.2	%	3.5	%	8	8	9	7	8	7	8	7	7	6	6	5	5	4	3	2	1,035,100

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Columbus 1 Toronto 2 (so)	*+0.1
Detroit 3 Carolina 2	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Ottawa vs Nashville	-0.7-0.7-0.6+0.3+0.3+1.2
Florida vs Dallas	+0.1+0.0+0.1-0.1-0.0-0.1
Pittsburgh vs Toronto	-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
Arizona vs Boston	-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.2+0.1+0.1
Montreal vs Detroit	-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1*-0.0
NY Islanders vs San Jose	+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

120	-160						100
119		53	17		-	7	99	0	0
118		52	17		-	8	97	3	0
117		52	18		-	7	96	2	1		0
116		51	18		-	8	94	4	2		0
115		51	19		-	7	90	6	2		1
114		50	19		-	8	85	9	3		2
113		49	19		-	9	81	11	5	0	3
112		49	20		-	8	75	14	6	0	4	0			0
111		48	20		-	9	66	19	9	0	6	0	0		0
110		48	21		-	8	57	24	11	0	8	0	0		0
109		47	21		-	9	47	27	14	0	11	0	0		0				0
108		47	22		-	8	36	31	18	1	14	1	0		1				0
107		46	22		-	9	26	32	20	2	18	1	0		1				0
106		46	23		-	8	17	33	22	3	20	2	1		2				0
105		45	23		-	9	9	30	23	6	22	5	1	0	3	0	0		0
104		45	24		-	8	5	25	22	8	23	8	3	0	6	0	0		0	0	0
103		44	24		-	9	2	20	19	12	21	12	4	0	8	0	0		1		0
102		44	25		-	8	1	14	15	15	17	17	7	0	11	1	0		2	0	0
101		43	25		-	9	0	9	10	17	11	21	11	1	14	3	0		3	0	0		0
100		43	26		-	8	0	5	6	16	7	22	13	3	16	6	1	0	5	0	0		0
99		42	26		-	9		2	3	15	3	19	14	5	15	10	3	0	8	0	1	0	0	0
98		42	27		-	8		1	1	12	1	15	13	9	13	15	6	0	11	1	2	0	0	0
97		41	27		-	9		0	1	9	0	9	10	12	8	19	9	1	13	4	5	0	1	0
96		41	28		-	8		0	0	6	0	5	6	14	4	19	11	3	14	8	8	1	2	0	0	0
95		40	28		-	9		0	0	3	0	2	3	14	1	16	12	6	12	13	12	2	4	1	0	0
94		40	29		-	8		0	0	2		1	1	11	0	10	10	10	7	17	15	5	8	2	0	0	0
93		39	29		-	9		0	0	1		0	0	8	0	6	6	13	3	18	13	11	12	6	2	0	0	0	0
92		39	30		-	8				0		0	0	5	0	3	3	13	1	15	9	17	15	12	5	2	0	0	0	0
91		38	30		-	9				0		0	0	2	0	1	1	11	0	10	4	19	14	17	13	6	2	0	0	0	0
90		38	31		-	8				0		0	0	1		0	0	8	0	5	1	16	8	17	19	14	7	2	1	0	0
89		37	31		-	9				0		0		1		0	0	5	0	2	0	10	3	11	18	21	16	8	3	1	0	0	0
88		37	32		-	8				0				0		0	0	3		1	0	5	1	4	11	20	22	18	10	4	1	0	0	0
87		36	32		-	9								0			0	1		0	0	2	0	1	5	11	20	23	19	11	4	1	0	0
86		36	33		-	8								0				1		0		1	0	0	1	5	12	20	23	20	11	5	1	0	0
85		35	33		-	9								0				0		0		0	0	0	0	1	5	11	20	24	20	12	4	1	0	0
84		35	34		-	8								0				0				0		0	0	0	2	5	12	21	24	20	11	3	1	0
83		34	34		-	9												0				0			0	0	0	2	6	14	23	25	19	8	2	0
82		34	35		-	8												0								0	0	0	2	7	16	26	26	16	6	1
81		33	35		-	9																				0	0	0	1	3	10	20	28	25	11	2
80		32	35		-	10																						0	0	1	5	13	26	31	20	5
79		32	36		-	9																							0	0	2	8	20	32	28	9
78		32	37		-	8																								0	1	3	13	30	36	17
77		31	37		-	9																								0	0	1	8	25	40	25
76		31	38		-	8																									0	1	5	18	42	35
75		30	38		-	9																										0	2	13	39	46
74		30	39		-	8																										0	1	8	35	55
73		29	39		-	9																											0	6	29	64
72		29	40		-	8																											0	4	20	76
71		28	40		-	9																												2	18	80
70		28	41		-	8																											0	0	13	86
69		27	41		-	9																												0	11	89
68		26	41		-	10																												1	10	90
67		26	42		-	9																												0	5	94
66		26	43		-	8																													1	99
65		25	43		-	9																													5	95
64		25	44		-	8																													1	99
6	-63																																			100

Total:							3	4	4	4	4	5	3	4	4	5	3	4	4	5	3	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1