Pittsburgh Penguins Playoff Chances 2015-2016 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.3 to 49.9%

4 points 2 2-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Detroit 3 Carolina 2	+0.5				+0.1
New Jersey 3 San Jose 2	*-0.4				*-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Pittsburgh vs Toronto	+4.4+3.8+3.7-1.0*-0.8-5.3		+0.6+0.6+0.6*+0.0-0.4-0.7		+0.5+0.4+0.4*-0.1-0.1-0.6
NY Islanders vs San Jose					-0.0-0.0-0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Pittsburgh finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

118	-160						In		99.6	%	100																249	*
117		52	17		-	9	In		97.6		98	1	1														125	*
116		52	18		-	8	In		95.5		99	1	1														178	*
115		52	19		-	7	In		93.8		97	2	0														256	*
114		51	19		-	8	In		91.2		96	2	2														362	*
113		51	20		-	7	In		88.1		95	3	3														545	*
112		50	20		-	8	In		83.4		94	4	3														735	*
111		49	20		-	9	In		74.6		89	7	5		0												1,005	*
110		49	21		-	8	In		67.2		87	8	5		0												1,318	*
109		48	21		-	9	In		56.9		83	9	8		0												1,679	*
108		47	21		-	10	In		47.2		73	15	11	0	1												2,160	*
107		47	22		-	9	In		35.6		65	19	15	0	1												2,859	*
106		47	23		-	8	In		23.7		56	22	20	1	1		0										3,649	*
105		46	23		-	9	In		14.5		47	26	23	1	3		0										4,443	*
104		46	24		-	8	In		7.9		35	31	28	2	4	0	0										5,424	*
103		45	24		-	9	In		3.7		26	31	30	4	8	0	1	0									6,393	*
102		45	25		-	8	100.0	%	1.4		17	32	32	8	10	0	1	0	0								7,736	*
101		44	25		-	9	In		0.5		11	30	31	11	14	0	2	0									8,827	*
100		43	25		-	10	100.0		0.1		6	26	27	16	19	1	4	0	0								10,130	*
99		43	26		-	9	100.0		0.0		3	21	22	21	23	3	7	1	0								11,304	*
98		43	27		-	8	99.7		No		1	16	15	24	24	6	11	2	0								12,472	*
97		42	27		-	9	99.2		No		0	11	9	25	23	11	15	5	1	0	0						13,777	*
96		41	27		-	10	97.8		No		0	7	5	22	19	16	20	8	2	0	0	0					14,838	*
95		41	28		-	9	94.0		No		0	4	2	18	14	21	21	14	5	1	0	0					15,634	*
94		40	28		-	10	86.9		No			2	1	14	8	23	20	19	9	3	1	0	0				16,497	*
93		40	29		-	9	74.2		No			1	0	9	4	22	16	22	16	7	2	0	0				16,924	*
92		39	29		-	10	57.9		No			0	0	5	2	18	11	22	22	14	5	1	0	0	0		16,862	*
91		39	30		-	9	40.0		No			0		3	1	13	6	17	24	20	11	4	1	0	0		17,099	*
90		38	30		-	10	23.7		No			0		2	0	8	3	11	21	25	18	9	3	0	0		16,947	*
89		38	31		-	9	12.3		No			0		1	0	5	1	6	15	24	24	16	6	2	0	0	16,183	*
88		37	31		-	10	5.7		No			0		0	0	3	0	2	8	19	27	23	13	4	1	0	15,417	*
87		37	32		-	9	2.4		No					0		1	0	1	4	12	23	27	20	9	2	0	14,596	*
86		36	32		-	10	0.9		No					0		1	0	0	1	7	17	27	26	16	5	0	13,410	*
85		36	33		-	9	0.4		No					0		0	0	0	1	3	10	22	30	23	9	1	12,343	*
84		35	33		-	10	0.1		No					0		0		0	0	1	6	16	28	29	17	4	11,124	*
83		35	34		-	9	0.0		No							0			0	0	2	9	24	33	24	7	10,025	*
82		34	34		-	10	Out		No										0	0	1	6	16	32	33	12	8,705	*
81		34	35		-	9	0.0		No							0				0	0	3	11	30	36	20	7,466	*
80		33	35		-	10	Out		No												0	1	7	23	42	27	6,481	*
79		33	36		-	9	Out		No												0	0	3	17	42	37	5,419	*
78		32	36		-	10	Out		No													0	2	12	39	47	4,538	*
77		32	37		-	9	Out		No														1	7	35	58	3,640	*
76		31	37		-	10	Out		No												0		0	5	29	66	2,885	*
75		31	38		-	9	Out		No														0	3	23	74	2,216	*
74		31	39		-	8	Out		No															1	18	80	1,777	*
73		30	39		-	9	Out		No															0	14	85	1,414	*
72		29	39		-	10	Out		No															0	11	89	989	*
71		29	40		-	9	Out		No															1	9	90	714	*
70		28	40		-	10	Out		No																4	96	589	*
69		28	41		-	9	Out		No															0	4	96	414	*
68		28	42		-	8	Out		No															0	4	95	285	*
67		28	43		-	7	Out		No																0	100	215	*
66		26	42		-	10	Out		No																3	97	145	*
65		25	42		-	11	Out		No																1	99	104	*
64		26	44		-	8	Out		No																2	98	62	*
63		25	44		-	9	Out		No																2	98	41	*
4	-62						Out		No																	100	116	*

Total:							49.9	%	2.6	%	6	7	6	7	6	7	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	351,740

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Detroit 3 Carolina 2	-0.1
New Jersey 3 San Jose 2	+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Los Angeles vs Minnesota	-0.0+0.1-0.1+0.0+0.1+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Pittsburgh vs Toronto	-0.9-0.9-0.8*+0.2+0.2+1.1
NY Islanders vs San Jose	+0.1+0.0+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1
Chicago vs Columbus	-0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1+0.0
Ottawa vs Nashville	+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.1+0.1-0.0
Florida vs Dallas	+0.0+0.0-0.1+0.0-0.1-0.0
Arizona vs Boston	-0.0+0.0-0.1+0.0*+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

119	-160						100
118		52	16		-	10	98	2
117		52	17		-	9	98	1	1		1
116		52	18		-	8	96	3	1		1
115		52	19		-	7	94	4	2		0
114		51	19		-	8	91	5	2		2
113		51	20		-	7	88	7	3		3
112		50	20		-	8	83	10	4		3
111		49	20		-	9	75	14	7		5				0
110		49	21		-	8	67	20	8	0	5				0
109		48	21		-	9	57	26	9	0	8	0			0
108		47	21		-	10	47	26	15	0	11	0	0		1
107		47	22		-	9	36	30	18	1	14	1	0		1
106		47	23		-	8	24	33	20	2	19	1	1		1				0
105		46	23		-	9	15	32	23	3	21	2	1		3	0			0
104		46	24		-	8	8	27	25	6	23	5	2		4	0	0		0
103		45	24		-	9	4	22	23	9	23	8	4	0	7	0	0		1		0
102		45	25		-	8	1	16	20	12	20	12	7	0	10	0	0		1		0		0
101		44	25		-	9	1	11	15	15	14	16	10	1	13	1	0		2	0	0
100		43	25		-	10	0	6	10	16	9	18	15	1	16	3	1		4	0	0		0
99		43	26		-	9	0	3	5	16	4	17	17	4	16	6	3	0	7	0	1	0	0
98		43	27		-	8		1	3	14	1	14	17	7	13	11	6	0	10	1	2	0	0
97		42	27		-	9		0	1	10	0	9	14	11	9	14	11	1	13	2	4	0	1	0	0
96		41	27		-	10		0	0	7	0	4	8	14	4	15	14	2	14	5	8	0	2	0	0	0
95		41	28		-	9		0	0	4		2	4	14	1	12	16	5	12	9	12	1	5	1	0	0
94		40	28		-	10			0	2		1	2	12	0	8	13	9	8	13	15	4	9	3	1	0	0
93		40	29		-	9			0	1		0	1	8	0	4	8	13	3	13	13	9	15	8	2	0	0
92		39	29		-	10				0		0	0	5	0	2	4	14	1	10	8	13	17	15	7	2	0	0	0
91		39	30		-	9				0			0	3		1	2	11	0	6	3	14	14	19	16	8	3	1	0	0
90		38	30		-	10				0			0	2		0	1	8	0	3	1	10	7	17	21	17	10	4	1	0	0
89		38	31		-	9				0				1		0	0	5	0	1	0	5	2	9	18	22	18	11	5	1	0	0
88		37	31		-	10				0				0		0	0	3		0	0	2	1	3	9	17	23	21	13	6	2	0	0	0
87		37	32		-	9								0				1		0		1	0	1	3	8	16	23	21	15	7	2	1	0	0
86		36	32		-	10								0				1		0		0	0	0	1	3	8	16	23	23	16	8	3	0	0
85		36	33		-	9								0			0	0		0		0		0	0	1	2	7	16	24	23	16	8	2	0	0
84		35	33		-	10								0				0				0		0	0	0	0	3	8	17	24	24	15	7	2	0
83		35	34		-	9												0								0	0	1	3	9	18	26	24	14	5	0
82		34	34		-	10																					0	0	1	4	11	22	27	23	10	2
81		34	35		-	9												0										0	0	2	5	15	27	29	18	5
80		33	35		-	10																							0	0	3	8	21	32	27	9
79		33	36		-	9																							0	0	1	4	14	30	35	17
78		32	36		-	10																									0	2	9	25	39	25
77		32	37		-	9																									0	1	4	18	42	35
76		31	37		-	10																									0	0	2	13	37	47
75		31	38		-	9																										0	1	7	34	57
74		31	39		-	8																											0	4	28	68
73		30	39		-	9																											0	3	23	74
72		29	39		-	10																											0	1	19	79
71		29	40		-	9																												1	16	83
70		28	40		-	10																													8	92
69		28	41		-	9																											0		6	94
68		28	42		-	8																												0	6	93
67		28	43		-	7																													1	99
66		26	42		-	10																													4	96
65		25	42		-	11																													3	97
64		26	44		-	8																													2	98
63		25	44		-	9																													2	98
4	-62																																			100

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4