Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Sports Club Stats, which I have open
in like seven browser tabs always
-Katie Baker

Columbus Blue Jackets Playoff Chances 2015-2016

Lost to Toronto 1-2 (so), playoff odds down 3.1 to 26.8%

3 points 1 3-1

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Columbus 1 Toronto 2 (so)	-1.4		-0.1		-0.1
New Jersey 3 San Jose 2	-0.3				-0.0
Detroit 3 Carolina 2	+0.2				+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Chicago vs Columbus	-3.5+0.0+0.1+3.6+4.4+4.3		-0.1-0.0-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.2		-0.4+0.0*+0.0+0.4+0.5+0.5
Ottawa vs Nashville	-0.2-0.2-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.3
Arizona vs Boston	+0.2-0.0-0.0+0.2-0.2-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Columbus finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

117	-157						In		99.2	%	100																132	*
116		53	17		-	7	In		81.8		95	2	2														44	*
115		52	17		-	8	In		92.5		97	3															67	*
114		51	17		-	9	In		89.4		94	4	3														113	*
113		51	18		-	8	In		82.9		94	3	3														146	*
112		50	18		-	9	In		79.6		91	3	6														289	*
111		50	19		-	8	In		65.7		84	7	8		1												347	*
110		49	19		-	9	In		53.8		76	11	12														572	*
109		48	19		-	10	In		46.5		73	12	15		1												841	*
108		48	20		-	9	In		37.9		66	15	18	0	1												1,257	*
107		47	20		-	10	In		24.5		56	17	24	1	1												1,599	*
106		47	21		-	9	In		17.0		51	22	24	1	2		0										2,313	*
105		47	22		-	8	In		9.4		38	24	32	1	4	0	0										3,172	*
104		46	22		-	9	In		4.9		28	27	34	2	8	0	0										4,164	*
103		45	22		-	10	In		2.4		21	28	35	5	10	0	1										5,510	*
102		45	23		-	9	In		0.9		14	26	36	8	14	0	2	0									7,066	*
101		44	23		-	10	In		0.2		8	23	33	12	19	1	3	0									9,189	*
100		44	24		-	9	100.0	%	0.1		5	21	28	17	22	2	5	0	0								11,416	*
99		43	24		-	10	99.9		No		2	17	22	21	26	3	8	1	0								14,064	*
98		43	25		-	9	99.8		No		1	13	15	23	27	7	12	2	0								17,043	*
97		42	25		-	10	99.4		No		0	8	9	23	26	12	17	5	1	0	0						20,164	*
96		42	26		-	9	98.2		No		0	5	4	21	22	16	21	8	2	0	0	0					23,605	*
95		41	26		-	10	95.2		No		0	3	2	17	16	21	23	13	4	1	0	0					27,541	*
94		41	27		-	9	89.5		No			2	1	13	10	23	23	19	8	2	0	0	0				31,446	*
93		40	27		-	10	78.8		No			1	0	8	5	22	19	23	14	5	1	0	0				34,988	*
92		40	28		-	9	63.8		No			0	0	5	2	19	14	24	21	11	3	1	0	0			38,990	*
91		39	28		-	10	46.2		No			0	0	3	1	14	8	20	25	18	8	2	0	0			42,248	*
90		39	29		-	9	29.9		No			0		1	0	9	4	15	24	24	15	6	1	0	0	0	45,326	*
89		38	29		-	10	16.3		No			0	0	1	0	6	2	8	20	26	22	11	4	1	0	0	47,715	*
88		38	30		-	9	8.2		No			0		0	0	3	1	4	13	23	26	19	8	2	0	0	49,549	*
87		37	30		-	10	3.5		No					0	0	2	0	2	7	17	26	26	15	5	1	0	50,353	*
86		37	31		-	9	1.4		No					0		1	0	1	3	11	22	28	22	10	2	0	50,357	*
85		36	31		-	10	0.5		No					0		0	0	0	1	6	16	26	28	17	5	1	50,853	*
84		36	32		-	9	0.2		No							0	0	0	0	3	9	22	30	24	10	2	49,572	*
83		35	32		-	10	0.0		No					0		0		0	0	1	5	15	28	30	17	4	47,319	*
82		35	33		-	9	0.0		No							0			0	0	2	9	23	34	25	7	44,802	*
81		34	33		-	10	0.0		No							0			0	0	1	5	18	33	32	12	42,063	*
80		34	34		-	9	0.0		No							0			0	0	0	2	11	29	37	19	38,848	*
79		33	34		-	10	Out		No												0	1	7	23	41	27	34,779	*
78		33	35		-	9	Out		No											0	0	0	4	18	42	36	31,424	*
77		32	35		-	10	Out		No												0	0	2	13	39	46	27,431	*
76		32	36		-	9	Out		No												0	0	1	8	35	55	23,905	*
75		31	36		-	10	Out		No													0	0	5	30	64	20,385	*
74		31	37		-	9	Out		No														0	3	25	72	17,138	*
73		30	37		-	10	Out		No														0	2	20	78	14,496	*
72		30	38		-	9	Out		No														0	1	15	84	11,704	*
71		29	38		-	10	Out		No														0	0	12	88	9,481	*
70		29	39		-	9	Out		No															0	9	91	7,386	*
69		28	39		-	10	Out		No															0	6	94	5,745	*
68		28	40		-	9	Out		No															0	5	95	4,366	*
67		27	40		-	10	Out		No																4	96	3,279	*
66		27	41		-	9	Out		No																2	98	2,460	*
65		26	41		-	10	Out		No																1	99	1,814	*
64		26	42		-	9	Out		No																1	99	1,251	*
63		26	43		-	8	Out		No																1	99	912	*
62		25	43		-	9	Out		No																0	100	645	*
61		25	44		-	8	Out		No																0	100	445	*
3	-60						Out		No																	100	971	*

Total:							26.8	%	0.3	%	1	2	2	4	3	5	4	5	6	7	7	8	9	10	12	14	1,035,100

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Columbus 1 Toronto 2 (so)	+0.3
Detroit 3 Carolina 2	-0.0
New Jersey 3 San Jose 2	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Chicago vs Columbus	+0.8-0.0*-0.0-0.8-0.9-1.0
NY Islanders vs San Jose	+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0*+0.0-0.0
Arizona vs Boston	-0.0+0.0+0.0-0.1+0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

118	-157						100
117		53	16		-	8	96	4
116		53	17		-	7	82	14	2		2
115		52	17		-	8	93	4	3
114		51	17		-	9	89	4	4		3
113		51	18		-	8	83	11	3		3
112		50	18		-	9	80	11	2	0	6
111		50	19		-	8	66	18	7		7	0			1
110		49	19		-	9	54	22	11	1	12
109		48	19		-	10	46	26	12	0	15	0			1
108		48	20		-	9	38	28	14	1	17	1	0		1
107		47	20		-	10	25	32	16	1	23	2	1		1
106		47	21		-	9	17	34	19	3	21	3	1		2				0
105		47	22		-	8	9	29	20	4	26	6	1		4	0	0		0
104		46	22		-	9	5	23	20	7	26	8	2		8	0	0		0
103		45	22		-	10	2	18	18	10	23	12	5	0	10	1	0		1
102		45	23		-	9	1	13	13	13	19	17	8	0	13	1	0		2		0
101		44	23		-	10	0	8	10	13	13	20	11	1	16	3	1		3	0	0
100		44	24		-	9	0	5	6	15	7	22	15	2	17	5	2		5	0	0		0
99		43	24		-	10		2	3	13	3	19	16	5	17	10	3	0	8	0	1		0
98		43	25		-	9		1	1	11	1	14	14	9	13	15	7	0	10	1	2	0	0
97		42	25		-	10		0	1	7	0	9	11	12	8	18	11	1	13	3	4	0	1	0	0
96		42	26		-	9		0	0	5	0	4	7	14	4	18	14	3	14	7	8	0	2	0	0	0
95		41	26		-	10		0	0	3		2	3	14	1	15	14	6	11	12	12	2	4	1	0	0
94		41	27		-	9			0	2		1	1	11	0	9	12	11	7	15	14	5	8	2	0	0	0
93		40	27		-	10				1		0	0	8	0	5	8	14	3	16	13	10	13	6	2	0	0	0
92		40	28		-	9				0		0	0	5	0	2	4	15	1	13	8	15	16	12	6	2	0	0	0
91		39	28		-	10				0		0	0	3		1	2	12	0	8	4	17	14	18	13	6	2	0	0	0
90		39	29		-	9				0			0	1		0	1	9	0	4	1	13	8	17	20	15	8	2	1	0	0
89		38	29		-	10				0		0		1		0	0	6		2	0	8	3	10	19	21	17	9	3	1	0	0	0
88		38	30		-	9				0				0		0	0	3		1	0	4	1	4	11	19	22	18	11	4	1	0	0	0
87		37	30		-	10								0		0	0	2		0	0	2	0	1	5	11	19	23	20	12	5	1	0	0
86		37	31		-	9								0			0	1		0		1	0	0	1	4	11	19	23	20	12	5	1	0	0
85		36	31		-	10								0				0		0		0		0	0	1	4	11	20	24	21	12	5	1	0	0
84		36	32		-	9												0		0		0		0	0	0	1	5	12	20	25	21	11	4	1	0
83		35	32		-	10								0				0				0		0	0	0	0	1	5	13	22	26	20	9	2	0
82		35	33		-	9												0							0	0	0	0	2	6	15	25	26	17	6	1
81		34	33		-	10												0									0	0	1	3	9	20	28	25	12	3
80		34	34		-	9												0										0	0	1	4	12	25	31	21	6
79		33	34		-	10																						0	0	0	2	7	19	32	29	11
78		33	35		-	9																							0	0	1	3	13	29	36	18
77		32	35		-	10																								0	0	1	7	24	39	28
76		32	36		-	9																								0	0	1	4	17	41	37
75		31	36		-	10																									0	0	2	12	37	49
74		31	37		-	9																									0	0	1	8	34	58
73		30	37		-	10																										0	0	4	28	67
72		30	38		-	9																											0	3	23	75
71		29	38		-	10																											0	1	17	81
70		29	39		-	9																											0	1	13	86
69		28	39		-	10																											0	0	10	90
68		28	40		-	9																												0	8	92
67		27	40		-	10																												0	5	95
66		27	41		-	9																													3	97
65		26	41		-	10																													2	98
64		26	42		-	9																													2	98
63		26	43		-	8																													1	99
62		25	43		-	9																													1	99
61		25	44		-	8																													0	100
3	-60																																			100

Total:							0	1	1	1	1	2	1	2	1	2	2	3	2	3	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	7	8	10