How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Stars 4 Sharks 3 -5.6
-0.6
Sharks 1 Thrashers 2 -5.5
-0.6
Sharks 1 Stars 3 -5.4
-0.6
Wild 4 Sharks 3 -5.4
-0.5
Sharks 1 Oilers 4 -5.4
-0.5
Sharks 1 Canucks 3 -5.3
-0.5
Rangers 3 Sharks 2 -5.2
-0.5
Blues 2 Sharks 0 -5.2
-0.5
Canadiens 3 Sharks 2 -5.1
-0.5
Sharks 2 Rangers 5 -5.1
-0.5
Penguins 4 Sharks 0 -5.0
-0.5
Sharks 0 Capitals 1 -5.0
-0.5
Sharks 3 Wild 4 -4.9
-0.5
Sharks 1 Panthers 2 -4.9
-0.5
Flyers 5 Sharks 3 -4.8
-0.5
Sharks 3 Hurricanes 4 -4.7
-0.5
Sharks 4 Kings 1 +4.5
+0.5
Stars 3 Sharks 5 +4.4
+0.5
Sharks 4 Flames 3 +4.3
+0.4
Sharks 3 Blackhawks 1 +4.3
+0.4
Red Wings 3 Sharks 6 +4.2
+0.4
Sharks 5 Avalanche 0 +4.2
+0.4
Blackhawks 3 Sharks 7 +4.1
+0.4
Senators 1 Sharks 4 +4.1
+0.4
Sharks 6 Flames 3 +4.0
+0.4
Bruins 1 Sharks 2 (ot)+4.0
+0.4
Avalanche 1 Sharks 4 +4.0
+0.4
Oilers 1 Sharks 5 +4.0
+0.4
Blues 0 Sharks 2 +4.0
+0.4
Sharks 5 Sabres 2 +3.9
+0.4
Sharks 4 Bruins 3 +3.9
+0.4
Maple Leafs 1 Sharks 2 +3.8
+0.4
Blackhawks 1 Sharks 2 (ot)+3.7
+0.4
Ducks 3 Sharks 4 +3.6
+0.4
Devils 3 Sharks 5 +3.6
+0.4
Sharks 2 Lightning 1 (so)+3.5
*+0.3
Sharks 5 Flyers 1 +3.3
+0.4
Sharks 6 Oilers 5 (so)+3.2
+0.3
Blues 2 Capitals 3 (so)*+1.2
Penguins 3 Avalanche 2 +0.9
Sharks 4 Penguins 5 (so)*+0.9
*+0.0
Panthers 3 Sharks 2 (ot)*-0.9
*-0.1
Bruins 5 Oilers 1 +0.9
Coyotes 2 Rangers 1 -0.8
Sabres 8 Red Wings 3 +0.8
Rangers 2 Red Wings 1 +0.8
Bruins 2 Blackhawks 1 +0.8
Rangers 5 Coyotes 2 *+0.7
+0.1
Predators 3 Flyers 5 *+0.6
Stars 7 Panthers 3 *-0.6
Oilers 4 Thrashers 3 *-0.5
Coyotes 3 Maple Leafs 1 *-0.5
Flames 4 Oilers 3 *+0.5
Coyotes 2 Panthers 1 *-0.4
Blue Jackets 6 Hurricanes 3 *+0.4
Flyers 2 Stars 5 *-0.3
Predators 2 Stars 4 *+0.3
Bruins 1 Flames 5 *-0.3
Flames 3 Senators 2 *-0.2
Maple Leafs 0 Devils 1 *-0.2
Thrashers 1 Wild 3 *-0.2
Blues 3 Stars 6 *+0.2
Blackhawks 6 Flyers 4 *-0.2
Stars 3 Bruins 2 *-0.2
*-0.0
Wild 5 Avalanche 3 *-0.2
Hurricanes 4 Oilers 5 (so)*-0.1
Oilers 3 Stars 1 +0.0
Rangers 5 Kings 4 (ot)*+0.0
Kings 6 Blue Jackets 3 -0.0
Stars 1 Flames 2 +0.0
Hurricanes 4 Maple Leafs 1 *-0.0
Ducks 2 Blue Jackets 3 -0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sharks vs Red Wings+5.8+5.1+4.3*+0.3-2.0-7.2
+0.4+0.3+0.4*-0.0-0.1-0.5
Blue Jackets vs Sharks-7.2-1.4-2.2+3.7+5.3+5.7
-0.5*-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.4+0.4
Blue Jackets vs Sharks-7.1-2.2*-2.0+4.9+5.2+5.7
-0.5-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.4
Coyotes vs Sharks-6.5*-0.5-2.6+6.0+4.5+4.9
-0.5*-0.1*-0.2+0.4+0.3+0.4
Sharks vs Canucks+5.3+4.6+5.4-2.2*-0.8-6.9
+0.4+0.3+0.4-0.2*-0.1-0.5
Sharks vs Blackhawks+5.0+4.8+5.5*-1.4*-1.1-6.8
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.0*-0.1-0.5
Red Wings vs Sharks-6.9*-1.1*-1.6+5.2+4.6+5.3
-0.5*-0.1*-0.1+0.4+0.3+0.4
Sharks vs Red Wings+5.4+4.4+4.5*-1.1-1.9-6.7
+0.4+0.4+0.3*-0.1-0.1-0.5
Sharks vs Stars+5.1+5.4+4.5*-1.7-1.7-6.7
+0.4+0.3+0.3-0.1*-0.1-0.5
Sharks vs Blue Jackets+5.2+5.1+4.2*-0.8*-1.3-6.8
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1-0.1-0.5
Sharks vs Coyotes+4.6+5.4+4.9*-1.3*-0.6-6.6
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.0-0.5
Kings vs Sharks-6.5*-1.1*-0.9+5.4+4.8+4.8
-0.5-0.1-0.1+0.4+0.4+0.4
Sharks vs Blue Jackets+5.4+4.5+3.5*-1.6-1.7-6.5
+0.4+0.3+0.3*-0.1-0.1-0.4
Predators vs Sharks-6.4*-0.5*-1.4+5.4+4.2+4.7
-0.5*-0.1*-0.1+0.4+0.3+0.3
Sharks vs Maple Leafs+4.5+4.8+5.5*-0.8*-0.9-6.3
+0.3+0.3+0.4*-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Coyotes vs Sharks-6.6*-0.7*-1.0+3.5+4.5+5.1
-0.5*-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.4
Predators vs Sharks-6.4*-0.2*-1.2+4.7+5.2+4.4
-0.5*-0.0*-0.1+0.3+0.4+0.3
Flames vs Sharks-6.6-1.5*-1.3+4.6+5.0+5.1
-0.5*-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.4+0.4
Sharks vs Devils+4.5+4.5+5.2*-0.8*-0.3-6.4
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.0-0.4
Sharks vs Blues+4.8+4.9+4.1*+0.1*-0.9-6.6
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.0*-0.1-0.5
Wild vs Sharks-6.6*-0.0*+0.3+4.8+4.6+4.6
-0.5*-0.0*-0.0+0.4+0.3+0.3
Canucks vs Sharks-6.5-1.4*+0.3+4.8+4.7+4.9
-0.5-0.1*+0.0+0.3+0.3+0.4
Kings vs Sharks-6.4*+0.1*+0.1+5.0+4.3+4.5
-0.5-0.1-0.1+0.4+0.3+0.4
Canucks vs Sharks-6.3-1.8*-0.5+3.6+4.9+5.0
-0.4*-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Sharks vs Islanders+4.2+4.5+5.3*-0.3*-1.2-5.9
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.0*-0.1-0.4
Sharks vs Predators+4.8+4.4+4.6*-1.6*-0.7-6.4
+0.4+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.1-0.5
Sharks vs Senators+4.3+4.6+5.2*-0.1*-1.2-6.0
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.0*-0.1-0.4
Oilers vs Sharks-6.3*-0.1*-0.7+3.4+4.0+4.8
-0.5-0.0*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.4
Flames vs Sharks-6.3*-0.9*-0.6+4.5+4.8+4.6
-0.4*-0.1*-0.0+0.3+0.4+0.3
Sharks vs Coyotes+4.7+4.7+4.7*-1.0*-1.1-6.3
+0.3+0.4+0.3*-0.1*-0.1-0.5
Sharks vs Blues+4.8+3.9+4.4*-1.0*-0.7-6.2
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.0*-0.1-0.4
Sharks vs Predators+4.7+3.6+4.7*+0.0*-0.4-6.3
+0.4+0.3+0.3*-0.0-0.1-0.5
Ducks vs Sharks-6.3*-0.7*-1.3+4.6+4.1+4.8
-0.5-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.4
Sharks vs Kings+4.6+4.3+4.8*-0.0*-1.1-6.2
+0.4+0.3+0.3*-0.1-0.1-0.5
Sharks vs Ducks+4.7+4.2+3.6*-1.7*+0.2-6.2
+0.4+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.0-0.5
Sharks vs Ducks+4.7+3.9+4.1*-1.8*-0.4-6.2
+0.4+0.3+0.3*-0.2*-0.1-0.5
Thrashers vs Sharks-5.9-1.4*-1.4+3.8+4.9+4.6
-0.4-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Avalanche vs Sharks-5.7*-1.0-2.4+5.0+4.4+4.4
-0.4*-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Islanders vs Sharks-6.2*-0.0*-1.8+4.1+4.4+4.5
-0.4*-0.0*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Sharks vs Avalanche+4.5+3.9+4.1*-0.3*+0.1-6.2
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1-0.0-0.4
Sharks vs Wild+4.5+3.8+4.7*-0.8*-0.8-5.9
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Lightning vs Sharks-6.0*-0.7*-1.1+4.1+4.6+4.3
-0.4-0.1*-0.0+0.4+0.3+0.3
Capitals vs Sharks-5.9*-0.9*-0.3+4.6+4.3+4.4
-0.4*-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Sharks vs Canadiens+4.4+4.6+4.0*-1.2*-0.9-5.9
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1-0.0-0.4
Sabres vs Sharks-6.0*-0.5*-1.5+4.4+4.5+4.4
-0.4*-0.0-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Hurricanes vs Sharks-5.9*-0.1*-0.9+3.7+4.2+4.3
-0.4*-0.0*-0.1+0.2+0.3+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Sharks finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
121-138In10017*
120346-6In94618*
119347-5In97332*
118337-6In884851*
117338-5In8012865*
116328-6In844192108*
115318-7In7010183187*
114319-6In591302520322*
113309-7In47191303495*
1123010-6In372013570692*
1113011-5In2720240910956*
1102911-6In17223431421,268*
1092811-7In101734223401,754*
1082812-6In51454030602,259*
1072712-7In295363512102,879*
1062713-6In164284019303,360*
1052613-7In033204027604,130*
1042614-6100.0%01213383510104,656*
1032514-799.90127303918205,474*
1022515-699.5013214028615,757*
1012415-798.101112363612206,121*
1002416-695.50007274022416,316*
992316-788.100317382910106,346*
982317-678.20019333517406,364*
972217-764.2042237268103,280*
2318-563.40042137288102,928*
962218-647.600213333415305,713*
952118-730.30162337248105,205*
942119-618.803163332133004,515*
932019-79.10182536237103,982*
922020-63.70418333112203,396*
911920-71.1019283521502,735*
901921-60.61518353010102,299*
891821-70.1021134341721,761*
881822-6Out0623382671,320*
871722-7Out0316383590959*
861723-6Out2103338171734*
851623-7Out042246271535*
841624-6Out11643355381*
831524-7Out1842454241*
821424-8Out729577151*
811425-7Out32266987*
801325-8Out417592054*
791326-7Out13602745*
781428-4Out6593517*
771328-5Out7534015*
761127-8Out40605*
751128-7Out67333
741028-8Out33673*
46-72Out1009*
Total:66.7%22171214151311964210100,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Lottery seed
Stars 4 Sharks 3 +1.2
Sharks 1 Thrashers 2 +1.2
Sharks 1 Stars 3 +1.1
Sharks 2 Rangers 5 +1.1
Wild 4 Sharks 3 +1.1
Rangers 3 Sharks 2 +1.1
Sharks 1 Oilers 4 +1.1
Canadiens 3 Sharks 2 +1.1
Sharks 1 Canucks 3 +1.1
Blues 2 Sharks 0 +1.1
Sharks 0 Capitals 1 +1.1
Flyers 5 Sharks 3 +1.1
Penguins 4 Sharks 0 +1.1
Sharks 1 Panthers 2 +1.0
Sharks 3 Hurricanes 4 +1.0
Sharks 3 Wild 4 +1.0
Sharks 4 Kings 1 -1.0
Stars 3 Sharks 5 -0.9
Bruins 1 Sharks 2 (ot)-0.9
Sharks 3 Blackhawks 1 -0.9
Senators 1 Sharks 4 -0.9
Sharks 6 Flames 3 -0.8
Sharks 5 Avalanche 0 -0.8
Red Wings 3 Sharks 6 -0.8
Sharks 4 Bruins 3 -0.8
Sharks 5 Sabres 2 -0.8
Sharks 4 Flames 3 -0.8
Maple Leafs 1 Sharks 2 -0.8
Oilers 1 Sharks 5 -0.8
Avalanche 1 Sharks 4 -0.8
Blackhawks 3 Sharks 7 -0.8
Blues 0 Sharks 2 -0.8
Devils 3 Sharks 5 -0.8
Blackhawks 1 Sharks 2 (ot)-0.8
Ducks 3 Sharks 4 -0.8
Sharks 5 Flyers 1 -0.7
Sharks 2 Lightning 1 (so)-0.7
Sharks 6 Oilers 5 (so)-0.6
Stars 2 Rangers 1 (so)*-0.4
Panthers 3 Sharks 2 (ot)+0.2
Maple Leafs 4 Blue Jackets 3 (so)+0.2
Kings 3 Ducks 2 (so)*-0.2
Blues 2 Capitals 3 (so)*-0.2
Hurricanes 4 Sabres 3 (so)+0.2
Hurricanes 3 Flyers 2 (so)-0.2
Capitals 2 Stars 1 (so)*+0.2
Canucks 5 Blues 4 (so)*+0.2
Predators 4 Red Wings 3 (so)*-0.2
Flames 2 Penguins 1 (ot)-0.2
Islanders 3 Devils 4 (so)*-0.2
Bruins 5 Oilers 1 -0.2
Wild 3 Blues 2 (ot)*+0.2
Stars 2 Flames 3 (so)*+0.2
Penguins 3 Avalanche 2 -0.2
Flyers 4 Wild 5 (ot)*-0.2
Coyotes 4 Senators 6 -0.1
Blackhawks 3 Ducks 1 -0.1
Rangers 5 Coyotes 2 -0.1
Oilers 5 Panthers 3 +0.1
Kings 1 Red Wings 3 -0.1
Coyotes 2 Panthers 1 +0.1
Stars 5 Blackhawks 6 (so)-0.1
Wild 5 Avalanche 3 *+0.1
Stars 3 Bruins 2 +0.0
Predators 2 Stars 4 +0.0
Ducks 4 Avalanche 1 +0.0
Sharks 4 Penguins 5 (so)*-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Coyotes vs Sharks+0.9*+0.1*+0.3-0.8-0.6-0.7
Sharks vs Stars-0.8-0.7-0.6+0.3+0.2+0.9
Kings vs Sharks+0.9*+0.2+0.2-0.7-0.7-0.7
Sharks vs Red Wings-0.7-0.6-0.7*+0.0+0.2+0.9
Red Wings vs Sharks+0.9*+0.1*+0.1-0.7-0.6-0.7
Blue Jackets vs Sharks+0.9+0.2*+0.2-0.6-0.7-0.7
Kings vs Sharks+0.9+0.1*+0.2-0.7-0.6-0.7
Ducks vs Sharks+0.9*+0.2*+0.2-0.7-0.6-0.7
Sharks vs Ducks-0.7-0.6-0.6*+0.3*+0.1+0.9
Blue Jackets vs Sharks+0.9*+0.2*+0.2-0.7-0.7-0.7
Sharks vs Canucks-0.7-0.6-0.7*+0.3*+0.1+0.9
Sharks vs Red Wings-0.7-0.7-0.7*+0.2*+0.2+0.9
Sharks vs Ducks-0.7-0.6-0.6+0.2+0.1+0.9
Sharks vs Kings-0.7-0.6-0.5*+0.2+0.2+0.9
Wild vs Sharks+0.9*+0.1*+0.0-0.7-0.6-0.7
Flames vs Sharks+0.9*+0.2*+0.1-0.6-0.7-0.7
Coyotes vs Sharks+0.9+0.1*+0.2-0.5-0.6-0.7
Predators vs Sharks+0.9*+0.1+0.2-0.7-0.6-0.7
Sharks vs Coyotes-0.6-0.7-0.7*+0.2+0.2+0.9
Oilers vs Sharks+0.9+0.1*+0.2-0.5-0.6-0.7
Predators vs Sharks+0.9*+0.1+0.1-0.7-0.7-0.6
Sharks vs Coyotes-0.6-0.7-0.6+0.1*+0.1+0.9
Sharks vs Blues-0.7-0.7-0.6*+0.1*+0.1+0.9
Sharks vs Predators-0.7-0.6-0.6*+0.3*+0.1+0.9
Sharks vs Blue Jackets-0.7-0.7-0.6+0.1+0.1+0.9
Canucks vs Sharks+0.9*+0.1*-0.1-0.6-0.6-0.7
Lightning vs Sharks+0.9*+0.2+0.1-0.7-0.7-0.6
Flames vs Sharks+0.9*+0.2*+0.1-0.7-0.7-0.6
Sharks vs Blackhawks-0.7-0.6-0.7+0.1*+0.2+0.9
Sharks vs Predators-0.7-0.5-0.6*+0.0+0.1+0.9
Sharks vs Maple Leafs-0.6-0.6-0.7*+0.1*+0.1+0.8
Thrashers vs Sharks+0.9+0.2*+0.2-0.6-0.7-0.7
Sharks vs Devils-0.6-0.6-0.7*+0.2+0.1+0.9
Sharks vs Blue Jackets-0.7-0.6-0.6*+0.2+0.2+0.8

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
122-138100
121356-5100
120346-678176
119347-563343
118337-6454348
117338-53743128
116328-630554192
115318-71852911713
114319-61346112025020
113309-764113712733
1123010-6334128129670
1113011-51269112319910
1102911-60177142029141402
1092811-710413312518221400
1082812-6521241192226460
1072712-721932112528712010
1062713-610532721271317130
1052613-703223172118234600
1042614-60111112162227710010
1032514-70101078232614171200
1022515-60010331820212356010
1012415-700011111224251011120
1002416-60000075222118193410
992316-70000311614242181020
982317-600108726201515510
972217-7000421915222111310
962218-60021128252121920
952118-70106320172618720
942119-60311510252515510
932019-70108517282413310
922020-6042102329219200
911920-7011413262919610
901921-6101617282714410
891821-70002102329231020
881822-60041427301861
871722-70172029281130
861723-60314252522101
851623-70151830281530
841624-6011124302580
831524-716173328142
821424-841123381771
811425-71224293373
801325-821335301542
791326-7272936207
781428-42435356
771328-5720272027
761127-8602020
751128-7333333
741028-86733
72929-8100
46046-0100
Total:021210345677887766544321100000