How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Islanders 4 Maple Leafs 2 -5.7
-0.6
Maple Leafs 1 Rangers 3 -5.6
-0.6
Maple Leafs 0 Senators 2 -5.6
-0.6
Hurricanes 4 Maple Leafs 1 -5.5
-0.5
Maple Leafs 1 Devils 4 -5.5
-0.6
Maple Leafs 4 Sabres 6 -5.4
-0.6
Hurricanes 5 Maple Leafs 0 -5.4
-0.6
Maple Leafs 1 Rangers 2 -5.3
-0.5
Blue Jackets 3 Maple Leafs 0 -5.3
-0.5
Maple Leafs 1 Senators 5 -5.3
-0.6
Rangers 7 Maple Leafs 0 -5.3
-0.6
Senators 4 Maple Leafs 3 -5.2
-0.6
Maple Leafs 0 Devils 1 -5.2
-0.5
Maple Leafs 4 Blue Jackets 3 (so)+5.2
+0.5
Maple Leafs 0 Kings 3 -5.2
-0.5
Maple Leafs 5 Capitals 8 -5.2
-0.5
Lightning 5 Maple Leafs 2 -5.2
-0.5
Maple Leafs 2 Penguins 3 -5.2
-0.6
Canucks 5 Maple Leafs 3 -5.1
-0.5
Coyotes 3 Maple Leafs 1 -5.1
-0.5
Rangers 4 Maple Leafs 0 -5.0
-0.5
Maple Leafs 1 Sharks 2 -4.9
-0.5
Flames 3 Maple Leafs 1 -4.8
-0.5
Canadiens 4 Maple Leafs 1 -4.7
-0.5
Canadiens 1 Maple Leafs 2 +4.3
+0.5
Maple Leafs 3 Islanders 2 +4.3
+0.4
Maple Leafs 3 Panthers 2 +4.1
+0.4
Maple Leafs 6 Bruins 0 +4.1
+0.4
Maple Leafs 5 Lightning 1 +4.0
+0.4
Oilers 4 Maple Leafs 5 +4.0
+0.4
Maple Leafs 4 Canucks 3 (ot)+3.9
+0.4
Capitals 0 Maple Leafs 4 +3.8
+0.4
Blackhawks 3 Maple Leafs 4 +3.8
+0.4
Maple Leafs 5 Coyotes 2 +3.6
+0.4
Maple Leafs 4 Hurricanes 3 (so)+3.3
+0.3
Canadiens 4 Coyotes 3 (so)*-1.6
*-0.2
Rangers 5 Kings 4 (ot)-1.4
Kings 4 Canadiens 3 +1.0
+0.1
Canadiens 1 Kings 2 +1.0
Senators 1 Stars 4 +0.9
+0.1
Senators 1 Sharks 4 +0.9
+0.1
Avalanche 3 Blue Jackets 4 (so)*+0.9
Thrashers 3 Predators 2 -0.8
Penguins 3 Blues 4 +0.8
Thrashers 1 Blue Jackets 2 +0.8
Senators 1 Wild 4 *+0.7
+0.1
Penguins 3 Red Wings 1 *-0.6
Sharks 3 Hurricanes 4 *-0.6
Devils 4 Maple Leafs 3 (so)*-0.6
*-0.1
Devils 1 Kings 2 *+0.5
Bruins 3 Red Wings 4 *+0.5
Stars 2 Thrashers 1 *+0.4
Thrashers 4 Red Wings 3 (ot)*-0.4
Avalanche 4 Senators 7 *-0.3
-0.1
Bruins 1 Sharks 2 (ot)*-0.3
*-0.1
Blackhawks 1 Canucks 3 *-0.2
Maple Leafs 5 Blues 6 (so)*-0.1
*-0.0
Islanders 3 Devils 4 (so)*-0.2
Sharks 2 Lightning 1 (so)-0.2
Oilers 5 Panthers 3 +0.1
Panthers 0 Canadiens 3 -0.1
Stars 2 Sabres 3 *-0.0
Islanders 1 Bruins 4 -0.0
Oilers 3 Islanders 1 *+0.0
Senators 4 Islanders 3 (ot)*-0.0
Bruins 3 Thrashers 1 *-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Maple Leafs vs Capitals+0.6+0.5+1.3*-0.2-0.4-0.8
+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.0*-0.0-0.2
Maple Leafs vs Thrashers+0.7+0.5+0.9*-0.2*-0.2-0.9
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.0-0.1-0.2
Maple Leafs vs Thrashers+0.6+0.9+0.7*-0.4-0.6-0.8
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.1-0.0-0.2
Capitals vs Maple Leafs-0.8-0.6*+0.3+0.9+0.6+0.7
-0.2-0.0*+0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Maple Leafs vs Lightning+0.7*+0.3+0.9*-0.2*-0.1-0.8
+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.1*-0.0-0.3
Maple Leafs vs Flyers+0.7+0.4+0.9*-0.5*-0.2-0.8
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.0*-0.0-0.2
Thrashers vs Maple Leafs-0.9*-0.1*-0.1*+0.5+0.5+0.7
-0.2*-0.0*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Thrashers vs Maple Leafs-0.8-0.4*-0.3*+0.4+0.5+0.8
-0.2*-0.0*-0.0+0.2+0.1+0.2
Maple Leafs vs Hurricanes+0.7+0.5+0.7*-0.1*-0.3-0.9
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.0*-0.1-0.2
Maple Leafs vs Sabres+0.6*+0.3+0.8*-0.3*+0.0-0.8
+0.2+0.1+0.2*-0.1*-0.0-0.2
Flyers vs Maple Leafs-0.9*-0.3*-0.3*+0.6+0.6+0.7
-0.2*-0.0*-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Maple Leafs vs Penguins+0.7+0.5*+0.4*+0.0*-0.1-0.9
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.0*-0.0-0.2
Maple Leafs vs Flyers+0.7+0.5*+0.4*-0.2*-0.3-0.8
+0.2+0.1+0.1*-0.0*-0.1-0.2
Penguins vs Maple Leafs-0.8*-0.3*-0.3*+0.3+0.8+0.7
-0.2*-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.2+0.2
Penguins vs Maple Leafs-0.8-0.5*-0.0+0.8+0.4+0.7
-0.2-0.0*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Senators vs Maple Leafs-0.8*-0.2*-0.4+0.7+0.5+0.7
-0.2*-0.0*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Maple Leafs vs Stars+0.6*+0.2+0.8*-0.3*+0.1-0.7
+0.2+0.2+0.1*-0.1*-0.0-0.2
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings+0.6+0.5+0.8*-0.4*-0.1-0.8
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.1-0.1-0.2
Maple Leafs vs Panthers+0.6+0.4+0.8*-0.1*-0.2-0.8
+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.3
Maple Leafs vs Bruins+0.7+0.4*+0.4*+0.0*-0.3-0.8
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.1-0.1-0.3
Blues vs Maple Leafs-0.7*+0.0*-0.5+0.8*+0.3+0.6
-0.2*-0.0*-0.1+0.2+0.1+0.2
Lightning vs Maple Leafs-0.8*-0.4*-0.1*+0.4+0.6+0.7
-0.2-0.1*-0.0+0.1+0.2+0.2
Ducks vs Maple Leafs-0.7*-0.2*+0.2+0.8*+0.3+0.5
-0.2*-0.0*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Bruins vs Maple Leafs-0.7*-0.1*-0.0*+0.3+0.7+0.5
-0.3-0.1*-0.0+0.1+0.2+0.2
Islanders vs Maple Leafs-0.7-0.4*-0.1+0.8+0.5+0.6
-0.3*-0.1*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Devils vs Maple Leafs-0.8*-0.2*-0.1*+0.4+0.6+0.7
-0.3-0.1*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Wild vs Maple Leafs-0.8*+0.1*+0.2*+0.0+0.5+0.6
-0.2*-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.2
Sabres vs Maple Leafs-0.7*-0.2*-0.2*+0.4*+0.4+0.7
-0.2*-0.0*-0.1+0.1+0.2+0.2
Panthers vs Maple Leafs-0.7*-0.2*-0.1*+0.0+0.4+0.7
-0.3-0.0*-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Maple Leafs vs Predators+0.5+0.6*+0.5*+0.0*+0.0-0.8
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.0*-0.0-0.2
Panthers vs Maple Leafs-0.8*-0.2*-0.4+0.6+0.5+0.6
-0.3-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Flyers vs Maple Leafs-0.7-0.4*-0.4*+0.5+0.5+0.7
-0.2*-0.0*-0.1+0.1+0.2+0.2
Maple Leafs vs Flames+0.6+0.6*+0.2*+0.1*-0.2-0.7
+0.2+0.2+0.1*-0.0*-0.0-0.2
Bruins vs Maple Leafs-0.7*-0.1*-0.1+0.6+0.6+0.5
-0.3-0.1*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Maple Leafs vs Blackhawks+0.7*+0.1*+0.4*-0.2*-0.2-0.7
+0.2+0.1+0.2*+0.0*-0.0-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Maple Leafs finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
124480-0In1008
109396-3In3333333*
108386-4In50502*
107376-5In33673*
106388-2In60405*
105367-5In363618911*
104357-6In559275522*
103347-7In1432361828*
102348-696.5%928371492257*
101349-598.11113831162105*
100328-889.429243124101151*
99329-779.90393631182264*
983210-664.01624342791383*
973110-748.903143235142569*
963111-630.11821372840827*
953011-721.0041635331011,126*
943012-611.121031391821,444*
932912-75.700523422541,933*
922913-62.302134136702,584*
912813-70.91834431313,007*
902814-60.400527471923,607*
892714-70.002194828304,400*
882715-60.001134336704,788*
872615-7Out0839421105,511*
862616-6Out0530471715,754*
852516-7Out0224482516,023*
842416-8Out01164833206,249*
832417-7Out0114342406,278*
822317-8Out063749806,177*
812318-7Out0331531115,862*
802319-6Out0223571615,416*
792219-7Out0116582324,905*
782220-6Out011533244,350*
772120-7Out07493763,819*
762020-8Out044343103,318*
752021-7Out33647142,686*
742022-6Out12751212,067*
731922-7Out11952281,716*
721822-8Out01350371,291*
711823-7Out01043471,016*
701824-6Out83656702*
691724-7Out43462486*
681725-6Out43165347*
671625-7Out32077252*
661626-6Out11683174*
651526-7Out1288102*
641527-6Out109072*
631528-5Out89340*
621327-8Out10019*
611429-5Out69416*
601430-4Out109010*
28-59Out10015*
Total:2.0%000001138172528135100,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Lottery seed
Islanders 4 Maple Leafs 2 +1.2
Maple Leafs 0 Senators 2 +1.2
Maple Leafs 1 Senators 5 +1.2
Hurricanes 5 Maple Leafs 0 +1.1
Maple Leafs 1 Rangers 3 +1.1
Senators 4 Maple Leafs 3 +1.1
Maple Leafs 1 Devils 4 +1.1
Maple Leafs 0 Kings 3 +1.1
Rangers 7 Maple Leafs 0 +1.1
Blue Jackets 3 Maple Leafs 0 +1.1
Maple Leafs 4 Sabres 6 +1.1
Maple Leafs 2 Penguins 3 +1.1
Hurricanes 4 Maple Leafs 1 +1.1
Maple Leafs 5 Capitals 8 +1.1
Canucks 5 Maple Leafs 3 +1.1
Flames 3 Maple Leafs 1 +1.1
Maple Leafs 1 Rangers 2 +1.1
Rangers 4 Maple Leafs 0 +1.1
Maple Leafs 0 Devils 1 +1.1
Lightning 5 Maple Leafs 2 +1.1
Canadiens 4 Maple Leafs 1 +1.1
Coyotes 3 Maple Leafs 1 +1.1
Maple Leafs 1 Sharks 2 +1.0
Maple Leafs 4 Blue Jackets 3 (so)-0.9
Canadiens 1 Maple Leafs 2 -0.9
Maple Leafs 6 Bruins 0 -0.9
Maple Leafs 3 Islanders 2 -0.9
Oilers 4 Maple Leafs 5 -0.8
Blackhawks 3 Maple Leafs 4 -0.8
Maple Leafs 5 Lightning 1 -0.8
Maple Leafs 3 Panthers 2 -0.8
Capitals 0 Maple Leafs 4 -0.8
Maple Leafs 4 Canucks 3 (ot)-0.8
Maple Leafs 5 Coyotes 2 -0.8
Maple Leafs 4 Hurricanes 3 (so)-0.7
Canadiens 4 Coyotes 3 (so)*+0.4
Sharks 2 Lightning 1 (so)+0.3
Bruins 5 Blues 4 (so)+0.3
Stars 1 Capitals 2 (so)*+0.2
Devils 4 Maple Leafs 3 (so)*+0.2
Thrashers 5 Canadiens 4 (so)+0.2
Rangers 5 Kings 4 (ot)*+0.2
Avalanche 3 Blue Jackets 4 (so)-0.2
Kings 4 Canadiens 3 -0.2
Blues 2 Bruins 3 (so)*+0.2
Senators 1 Sharks 4 -0.2
Senators 1 Stars 4 -0.2
Lightning 2 Sabres 3 (so)*+0.2
Blue Jackets 3 Devils 4 (ot)*+0.2
Bruins 3 Predators 4 (so)*-0.2
Red Wings 3 Coyotes 2 (so)-0.2
Canucks 5 Blues 4 (so)-0.1
Senators 1 Wild 4 -0.1
Maple Leafs 5 Blues 6 (so)+0.1
Bruins 2 Avalanche 4 -0.1
Oilers 5 Panthers 3 -0.1
Blues 5 Coyotes 4 *+0.1
Sabres 7 Predators 4 +0.1
Stars 1 Senators 2 +0.1
Flames 3 Senators 2 -0.1
Flames 0 Predators 4 *-0.0
Oilers 3 Islanders 1 *-0.0
Wild 3 Islanders 2 -0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Panthers vs Maple Leafs+0.6+0.1*+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.5
Panthers vs Maple Leafs+0.6*+0.1*+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.5
Maple Leafs vs Predators-0.4-0.4-0.5*+0.1+0.1+0.6
Bruins vs Maple Leafs+0.6*+0.1*+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.5
Predators vs Maple Leafs+0.6+0.1*+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.4
Maple Leafs vs Panthers-0.4-0.4-0.4*+0.1+0.1+0.6
Maple Leafs vs Bruins-0.4-0.4-0.4*+0.1*+0.1+0.6
Flyers vs Maple Leafs+0.5*+0.1*+0.1-0.5-0.4-0.4
Maple Leafs vs Flames-0.4-0.4-0.3+0.1+0.1+0.6
Maple Leafs vs Avalanche-0.4-0.4-0.4*+0.2+0.1+0.5
Maple Leafs vs Lightning-0.4-0.3-0.4*+0.1+0.1+0.5
Avalanche vs Maple Leafs+0.6*+0.1+0.1-0.3-0.4-0.4
Bruins vs Maple Leafs+0.5*+0.1*+0.1-0.3-0.3-0.4
Maple Leafs vs Blackhawks-0.4-0.3-0.3*+0.0*+0.1+0.5
Lightning vs Maple Leafs+0.5*+0.1*+0.0-0.3-0.4-0.4
Islanders vs Maple Leafs+0.5*+0.1*+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.4
Capitals vs Maple Leafs+0.5+0.1*+0.0-0.5-0.4-0.4
Devils vs Maple Leafs+0.6*+0.1*+0.0-0.4-0.4-0.4
Maple Leafs vs Sabres-0.4-0.3-0.5*+0.2+0.1+0.5
Thrashers vs Maple Leafs+0.5*+0.0*+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.4
Ducks vs Maple Leafs+0.5+0.1*+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.4
Senators vs Maple Leafs+0.5*+0.0*+0.1-0.4-0.3-0.4
Maple Leafs vs Flyers-0.4-0.4-0.4*+0.1*+0.0+0.5
Maple Leafs vs Penguins-0.4-0.4-0.4*+0.0*+0.0+0.5
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings-0.4-0.4-0.4*+0.2*+0.1+0.5
Thrashers vs Maple Leafs+0.5*+0.1*+0.1-0.4-0.3-0.4
Blues vs Maple Leafs+0.5*+0.1*+0.1-0.4-0.3-0.4
Maple Leafs vs Thrashers-0.4-0.4-0.3*+0.0+0.1+0.5
Penguins vs Maple Leafs+0.5+0.1*+0.0-0.4-0.4-0.4
Sharks vs Maple Leafs+0.5+0.1*+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.4
Sabres vs Maple Leafs+0.5+0.1*+0.2-0.3-0.3-0.4
Maple Leafs vs Stars-0.4-0.4-0.3*+0.1+0.0+0.5
Maple Leafs vs Thrashers-0.4-0.4-0.4*+0.2*+0.1+0.5
Maple Leafs vs Capitals-0.4-0.4-0.4+0.1+0.1+0.5
Flyers vs Maple Leafs+0.5*+0.1*+0.1*-0.3-0.4-0.4
Maple Leafs vs Canadiens-0.4-0.4-0.3*+0.0*+0.0+0.5
Maple Leafs vs Flyers-0.4-0.3-0.4*+0.1*+0.1+0.5
Maple Leafs vs Wild-0.4-0.4-0.4+0.1*+0.1+0.5

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
124480-0100
109396-3333333
108386-45050
107376-5333333
106377-4402040
105367-51818279189
104357-65273218955
103347-7141814251118
102348-695231819122922
101349-51111820257162
100328-82183212011204101
99329-703091719275173
983210-6105420221123102
973110-7032121319261961
963111-610741723271451
953011-7041151626221140
943012-62198212720921
932912-70005213252718820
922913-60021516272716510
912813-710271929251331
902814-60001311242921920
892714-7001515282817510
882715-60029203025122000
872615-701313273119610
862616-600171931281220
852516-70031127332050
842416-80161933281110
832417-7021229341930
822317-801621372870
812318-703143435121
802319-601828411930
792219-700420422670
782220-602133834121
772120-70173340173
762020-8052441255
752021-7031840328
742022-6111354013
731922-717274718
721822-84234627
711823-702174337
701824-61143847
691724-773756
681725-663460
671625-742572
661626-622079
651526-711485
641527-61189
631528-5893
621327-8100
611429-5694
601430-41090
28-59100
Total:00000000000011123468101214151173