How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Coyotes 3 Flames 1 -5.6
-0.6
Flames 0 Predators 4 -5.6
-0.6
Flames 1 Blackhawks 2 -5.5
-0.6
Flames 2 Oilers 4 -5.5
-0.6
Flames 2 Red Wings 3 -5.5
-0.6
Sharks 4 Flames 3 -5.4
-0.5
Flames 3 Canucks 4 -5.4
-0.6
Sharks 6 Flames 3 -5.3
-0.5
Flames 2 Blues 5 -5.3
-0.5
Ducks 3 Flames 0 -5.3
-0.5
Wild 4 Flames 2 -5.2
-0.6
Panthers 2 Flames 1 -5.1
-0.5
Flames 2 Ducks 5 -5.1
-0.5
Flames 3 Sabres 5 -5.0
-0.5
Penguins 5 Flames 2 -5.0
-0.5
Senators 6 Flames 4 -5.0
-0.5
Flyers 2 Flames 0 -4.8
-0.5
Flames 2 Capitals 3 -4.8
-0.5
Flames 0 Rangers 5 -4.7
-0.5
Flames 3 Blackhawks 1 +4.6
+0.4
Kings 1 Flames 2 +4.4
+0.4
Flames 4 Canucks 3 +4.2
+0.5
Thrashers 3 Flames 4 (ot)+4.2
+0.4
Coyotes 3 Flames 4 +4.1
+0.4
Stars 2 Flames 3 (so)+4.1
*+0.4
Predators 1 Flames 3 +4.0
+0.4
Flames 2 Islanders 1 +4.0
+0.4
Red Wings 1 Flames 2 +3.9
+0.4
Devils 2 Flames 4 +3.9
+0.4
Flames 4 Oilers 3 +3.9
+0.4
Flames 3 Senators 2 +3.9
+0.4
Stars 1 Flames 2 +3.7
+0.4
Flames 6 Flyers 4 +3.7
+0.4
Lightning 3 Flames 4 (so)+3.7
+0.4
Flames 3 Maple Leafs 1 +3.6
+0.4
Bruins 1 Flames 5 +3.6
+0.4
Flames 2 Penguins 1 (ot)+3.2
+0.4
Rangers 3 Flames 2 (so)*-2.0
*-0.1
Oilers 3 Flames 2 (so)*-1.5
-0.1
Kings 5 Thrashers 4 (ot)*-1.0
*-0.1
Hurricanes 5 Ducks 4 (so)*+0.9
Blue Jackets 3 Devils 4 (ot)*+0.8
*+0.1
Red Wings 1 Canadiens 3 +0.8
Sabres 8 Red Wings 3 +0.8
Thrashers 5 Oilers 3 +0.8
Stars 2 Canadiens 3 +0.8
Oilers 4 Rangers 1 *-0.6
Lightning 2 Stars 3 *-0.6
Penguins 5 Islanders 1 *-0.5
Bruins 2 Blackhawks 1 *+0.5
Bruins 5 Canucks 4 *+0.5
Predators 3 Islanders 2 *+0.4
Avalanche 2 Devils 3 (ot)*+0.4
Rangers 2 Red Wings 1 *+0.4
Maple Leafs 0 Kings 3 *-0.4
Flames 4 Hurricanes 5 (ot)*-0.4
*-0.0
Canucks 5 Maple Leafs 3 *-0.3
Wild 3 Blues 5 *+0.3
Penguins 1 Canucks 3 *-0.3
Ducks 4 Panthers 1 *-0.3
Flames 2 Ducks 3 (so)*-0.3
*-0.1
Blue Jackets 5 Avalanche 3 *-0.2
Thrashers 3 Ducks 2 *+0.2
Sharks 1 Canucks 3 *+0.2
Ducks 5 Canadiens 0 *-0.1
Ducks 3 Avalanche 1 +0.1
Oilers 1 Sharks 5 +0.0
Blues 1 Oilers 2 *-0.0
Oilers 6 Predators 2 +0.0
Wild 3 Stars 2 -0.0
Avalanche 2 Blues 1 *+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Flames vs Kings+3.6+3.5+6.2*-0.9-1.3-4.9
+0.3+0.3+0.4*-0.0-0.1-0.4
Blackhawks vs Flames-5.7-1.2-2.1+3.4+3.4+4.8
-0.5-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.4
Flames vs Coyotes+4.3+3.2+4.8*-0.9-1.1-5.4
+0.4+0.3+0.4*-0.1-0.1-0.5
Blue Jackets vs Flames-5.5-1.6-1.9+3.9+3.5+4.6
-0.5-0.1-0.1+0.4+0.3+0.4
Blue Jackets vs Flames-5.5-1.5*-0.3+2.7+3.5+4.6
-0.5-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.4
Red Wings vs Flames-5.4-1.4-2.1+3.3+3.8+4.5
-0.4*-0.0*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.4
Flames vs Blue Jackets+4.2+4.4+4.1*-1.6-1.4-5.4
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1-0.1-0.4
Flames vs Red Wings+4.2+3.9+4.4-1.8-1.2-5.3
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1-0.1-0.4
Flames vs Sharks+4.1+4.5+4.3-2.4-1.9-5.2
+0.3+0.3+0.4*-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Flames vs Blue Jackets+4.3+3.3+3.9*-1.0-1.2-5.4
+0.4+0.3+0.3*-0.0-0.1-0.5
Flames vs Sharks+4.4+3.1+2.6*-1.2-1.3-5.2
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1-0.1-0.4
Flames vs Blues+4.2+4.1+3.4*-1.7-1.5-5.2
+0.3+0.3+0.3-0.1-0.1-0.4
Flames vs Stars+4.0+3.4+4.3*-0.2*-1.1-5.1
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.0*-0.1-0.4
Canucks vs Flames-5.1*-1.1*-0.5+4.2+3.9+3.8
-0.5-0.1-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.4
Ducks vs Flames-5.0*-1.0*-1.7+4.4+4.2+3.7
-0.4*-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Blackhawks vs Flames-5.2-1.2*-1.5+3.5+3.7+4.2
-0.4*-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Oilers vs Flames-5.1-1.7*-1.0+4.2+3.9+4.0
-0.4-0.1*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Canucks vs Flames-5.1-1.3*-1.5+2.7+3.8+4.2
-0.5*-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.3+0.4
Blues vs Flames-5.2*-0.9*-0.5+3.4+3.5+4.0
-0.4*-0.1-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Flames vs Stars+4.0+3.5+4.1-2.2*-0.8-5.1
+0.3+0.3+0.4*-0.1*-0.0-0.4
Blues vs Flames-5.0-1.4*-1.0+2.2+3.7+4.1
-0.4*-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Wild vs Flames-5.1*-0.5*-1.1+4.0+3.7+3.8
-0.4-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Canadiens vs Flames-4.8*-0.8*-0.6+4.2+3.9+3.4
-0.4*-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Flames vs Coyotes+3.9+3.4+4.0*-1.6-1.5-4.9
+0.3+0.3+0.4-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Islanders vs Flames-4.7*-0.8*-1.6+4.2+3.6+3.5
-0.4*-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Kings vs Flames-4.9*-1.0-2.0+3.4+4.0+3.7
-0.4*-0.1-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Flames vs Predators+3.6+3.7+4.0*-0.4*-1.0-4.9
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.1-0.5
Flames vs Lightning+3.8+3.2+3.4*-0.4*-0.7-5.0
+0.3+0.3+0.2*-0.0*-0.1-0.4
Flames vs Wild+3.8+3.2+3.9*-0.4*-0.9-4.9
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Flames vs Avalanche+3.5+3.6+4.1*-1.4*-1.1-4.7
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Flames vs Wild+3.9+4.0+3.4-2.2-1.4-4.8
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Avalanche vs Flames-4.7-1.5*-1.0+1.9+4.0+3.8
-0.4-0.1-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Flames vs Canadiens+3.7+3.6+2.3*-0.7*-0.0-4.9
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.0-0.4
Flames vs Bruins+3.7+3.3+3.6*-1.0*-0.8-4.8
+0.3+0.3+0.2*-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Flames vs Kings+3.7+3.2+3.7*-0.8*-1.1-4.7
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Predators vs Flames-4.7*-0.9*-1.0+2.3+3.6+3.7
-0.4*-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Flames vs Avalanche+3.4+3.6+3.3*+0.4*-0.7-4.8
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.0*-0.1-0.4
Maple Leafs vs Flames-4.7*-0.9*-0.3+3.0+3.6+3.6
-0.4*-0.1*+0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Sabres vs Flames-4.7-1.2*-0.3+3.7+3.6+3.5
-0.4*-0.1*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Avalanche vs Flames-4.7*-1.0*-1.1+3.3+3.6+3.6
-0.4*-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Flames vs Thrashers+3.7+3.2+2.9*-1.3*-0.7-4.7
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.0-0.4
Capitals vs Flames-4.6*-0.6*-0.9+3.4+3.1+3.5
-0.4*-0.0-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Flames vs Panthers+3.3+3.6+3.6-1.8*-0.4-4.5
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.0-0.4
Flames vs Devils+3.6+3.3+2.7*-0.0-1.3-4.5
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Hurricanes vs Flames-4.6*-0.7*+0.4+3.0+3.4+3.4
-0.4*-0.0*+0.0+0.2+0.3+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Flames finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
117-130In1009*
116376-2In1001
115377-1In50502*
114345-6In5017336*
113357-3In562211119*
112347-4In252584212*
111337-5In262348331*
110327-6In26404217168*
109328-5In84363110197*
108318-6In8281030186207*
107319-5In324103022111285*
106309-6In2161020341620398*
105299-7In091116332460681*
1042910-6In610113129112869*
1032911-599.7%366243521501,190*
1022811-699.226218332810101,545*
1012711-795.91419283518412,180*
1002712-689.0030421342710102,712*
992612-779.5020212313317303,262*
982613-665.0010162335268104,006*
972513-748.5000213333315304,618*
962514-632.400172537247105,260*
952414-718.500216333314205,858*
942415-610.1019263721403,114*
2314-89.10018253822512,983*
932315-74.1000418363010106,480*
922316-61.50110313718306,467*
912216-70.405233727706,390*
902217-60.3021435341326,280*
892117-7Out19293919305,823*
882118-6Out04224028505,288*
872018-7Out011337371104,796*
862019-6Out1931411714,198*
851919-7Out0423452623,399*
841920-6Out0216443432,712*
831820-7Out111414262,298*
821821-6Out073351101,810*
811721-7Out042556151,353*
801722-6Out2205523994*
791622-7Out01135828741*
781623-6Out065440505*
771523-7Out085042394*
761524-6Out44253253*
751525-5Out24158160*
741526-4Out22969104*
731325-7Out227863*
721326-6Out178336*
711226-7Out89224*
701227-6Out237713*
40-69Out10016*
Total:21.1%00112368111416151382100,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Lottery seed
Flames 2 Oilers 4 +1.2
Coyotes 3 Flames 1 +1.2
Flames 3 Canucks 4 +1.1
Flames 0 Predators 4 +1.1
Wild 4 Flames 2 +1.1
Flames 2 Red Wings 3 +1.1
Flames 1 Blackhawks 2 +1.1
Ducks 3 Flames 0 +1.1
Sharks 6 Flames 3 +1.1
Penguins 5 Flames 2 +1.1
Sharks 4 Flames 3 +1.1
Flames 2 Blues 5 +1.1
Flames 3 Sabres 5 +1.1
Panthers 2 Flames 1 +1.1
Senators 6 Flames 4 +1.1
Flames 2 Ducks 5 +1.1
Flames 0 Rangers 5 +1.0
Flyers 2 Flames 0 +1.0
Flames 2 Capitals 3 +1.0
Thrashers 3 Flames 4 (ot)-0.9
Flames 4 Canucks 3 -0.9
Kings 1 Flames 2 -0.9
Flames 3 Blackhawks 1 -0.9
Coyotes 3 Flames 4 -0.9
Flames 4 Oilers 3 -0.8
Devils 2 Flames 4 -0.8
Flames 2 Islanders 1 -0.8
Predators 1 Flames 3 -0.8
Red Wings 1 Flames 2 -0.8
Flames 2 Penguins 1 (ot)-0.8
Stars 1 Flames 2 -0.8
Flames 3 Senators 2 -0.8
Flames 3 Maple Leafs 1 -0.8
Lightning 3 Flames 4 (so)-0.8
Flames 6 Flyers 4 -0.8
Stars 2 Flames 3 (so)-0.8
Bruins 1 Flames 5 -0.7
Rangers 3 Flames 2 (so)*+0.3
Blues 2 Capitals 3 (so)+0.3
Canucks 5 Blues 4 (so)*+0.2
Capitals 4 Coyotes 5 (ot)*+0.2
Islanders 3 Canucks 2 (so)*+0.2
Kings 3 Blues 4 (so)*-0.2
Flames 2 Ducks 3 (so)*+0.2
Thrashers 4 Red Wings 3 (ot)*+0.2
Capitals 2 Wild 3 (so)*+0.2
Oilers 3 Flames 2 (so)+0.1
Ducks 3 Avalanche 1 -0.1
Oilers 5 Red Wings 4 (so)*+0.1
Rangers 5 Wild 3 -0.1
Predators 2 Stars 4 *-0.1
Islanders 3 Wild 2 -0.1
Oilers 2 Senators 3 -0.1
Flames 4 Hurricanes 5 (ot)*+0.1
Islanders 1 Senators 3 -0.1
Capitals 2 Rangers 4 *-0.0
Penguins 1 Canucks 3 +0.0
Blue Jackets 5 Avalanche 3 +0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Flames vs Coyotes-0.7-0.6-0.7*+0.1*+0.2+0.9
Flames vs Kings-0.6-0.6-0.8*+0.1*+0.1+0.8
Blackhawks vs Flames+0.9*+0.2*+0.3-0.6-0.6-0.7
Flames vs Sharks-0.6-0.6-0.7*+0.2*+0.2+0.8
Blue Jackets vs Flames+0.8+0.2*+0.2-0.7-0.5-0.7
Canucks vs Flames+0.8*+0.2*+0.2-0.4-0.6-0.7
Flames vs Stars-0.6-0.5-0.7*+0.2*+0.1+0.8
Flames vs Coyotes-0.6-0.6-0.7+0.2*+0.1+0.8
Flames vs Blue Jackets-0.6-0.5-0.6*+0.1+0.1+0.8
Flames vs Lightning-0.7-0.6-0.4*+0.1*+0.1+0.8
Blue Jackets vs Flames+0.8*+0.1*+0.1-0.5-0.6-0.6
Flames vs Predators-0.6-0.5-0.6*+0.1*+0.1+0.8
Red Wings vs Flames+0.8*+0.1*+0.2-0.5-0.5-0.6
Flames vs Blue Jackets-0.6-0.6-0.6+0.3*+0.1+0.8
Canucks vs Flames+0.8*+0.1*+0.1-0.6-0.6-0.6
Flames vs Bruins-0.6-0.6-0.5*+0.1*+0.1+0.8
Flames vs Stars-0.6-0.5-0.6*+0.0+0.1+0.8
Wild vs Flames+0.8+0.1*+0.2-0.6-0.6-0.6
Oilers vs Flames+0.8+0.2*+0.1-0.6-0.5-0.6
Ducks vs Flames+0.8*+0.1*+0.2-0.6-0.6-0.6
Maple Leafs vs Flames+0.8*+0.2*-0.0-0.6-0.6-0.6
Flames vs Wild-0.6-0.6-0.6*+0.2*+0.2+0.8
Flames vs Blues-0.6-0.6-0.6*+0.2+0.2+0.8
Flames vs Red Wings-0.6-0.6-0.6*+0.2+0.2+0.8
Blackhawks vs Flames+0.8*+0.1*+0.2-0.5-0.6-0.6
Predators vs Flames+0.8*+0.1*+0.2-0.5-0.6-0.6
Kings vs Flames+0.8*+0.1*+0.2-0.6-0.6-0.6
Blues vs Flames+0.8*+0.2*+0.1-0.5-0.6-0.6
Flames vs Panthers-0.6-0.6-0.6+0.3*+0.1+0.8
Canadiens vs Flames+0.7*+0.1*+0.2-0.6-0.6-0.6
Blues vs Flames+0.8+0.2*+0.0-0.5-0.6-0.6
Flames vs Wild-0.6-0.6-0.6*+0.1*+0.1+0.8
Flames vs Sharks-0.6-0.5-0.6*+0.1*+0.1+0.8
Flames vs Avalanche-0.6-0.6-0.5+0.1*+0.1+0.8
Avalanche vs Flames+0.8+0.2*+0.2-0.5-0.6-0.6
Flames vs Thrashers-0.6-0.5-0.5*+0.1*+0.1+0.8
Avalanche vs Flames+0.8*+0.1*+0.1-0.5-0.6-0.6
Islanders vs Flames+0.8+0.1*+0.2-0.6-0.6-0.6
Hurricanes vs Flames+0.8+0.1*-0.0-0.5-0.6-0.6
Sabres vs Flames+0.7+0.2*+0.1-0.6-0.6-0.6
Capitals vs Flames+0.8*+0.1+0.2-0.6-0.5-0.6
Flames vs Devils-0.6-0.6-0.5*+0.1*+0.1+0.7
Flames vs Avalanche-0.5-0.6-0.6*+0.2*+0.1+0.7

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
130450-0100
117375-3100
116376-2100
115377-15050
114345-6501733
113357-33322221111
112347-4817178842
111337-526101323263
110327-6266344101071
109328-58835511120101
108318-682267313171706
107319-5322264921184111
106309-6211664515221215120
105299-709561141717213600
1042910-6064611011202261102
1032911-532405618221319250
1022811-62152315141823610010
1012711-7113109920241216240
1002712-6002044171717234920
992612-70020211110202491640
982613-60010106418191623102000
972513-70000211212212618710
962514-600106619232614410
952414-70002214152923113000
942415-60001088233020810
932315-700004414282716510
922316-6011719292512410
912216-700311233022920
902217-60014152828175100
892117-700282129251230
882118-601313253019710
872018-701617292813410
862019-600211253023810
851919-70151628301540
841920-6002924342460
831820-7051731301420
821821-6001925342450
811721-701419363091
801722-6031130371730
791622-701721412271
781623-6002123835111
771523-711133239132
761524-6072637263
751525-5422342812
741526-4210364112
731325-75334417
721326-63175328
711226-7213842
701227-6156223
691127-72575
681229-45050
40-65100
Total:000001011112234567999987643100