How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Blue Jackets 6 Blues 4 -5.7
-0.6
Blues 0 Stars 2 -5.6
-0.6
Oilers 2 Blues 0 -5.6
-0.6
Avalanche 2 Blues 1 -5.5
-0.6
Blues 3 Stars 6 -5.4
-0.5
Blues 1 Oilers 2 -5.4
-0.5
Blues 0 Sharks 2 -5.4
-0.5
Blues 1 Kings 3 -5.2
-0.5
Red Wings 3 Blues 2 -5.1
-0.6
Blues 2 Kings 5 -5.1
-0.5
Senators 3 Blues 2 -5.0
-0.5
Blues 1 Flyers 3 -4.7
-0.5
Kings 2 Blues 3 +4.4
+0.4
Blackhawks 1 Blues 4 +4.4
+0.5
Blues 3 Canucks 2 +4.3
+0.4
Blues 4 Wild 1 +4.3
+0.4
Blues 4 Coyotes 3 +4.2
+0.4
Blues 6 Predators 3 +4.2
+0.4
Red Wings 3 Blues 4 +4.2
+0.4
Coyotes 0 Blues 1 +4.1
+0.4
Stars 4 Blues 6 +4.1
+0.4
Blues 4 Predators 1 +4.1
+0.4
Blues 2 Sharks 0 +4.1
+0.4
Flames 2 Blues 5 +4.0
+0.4
Wild 3 Blues 5 +4.0
+0.4
Blues 4 Lightning 3 (ot)+4.0
+0.4
Coyotes 2 Blues 5 +4.0
+0.4
Blues 5 Coyotes 4 +3.9
+0.4
Blues 3 Devils 1 +3.9
+0.4
Blues 4 Senators 1 +3.9
+0.4
Ducks 3 Blues 5 +3.8
+0.4
Penguins 3 Blues 4 +3.4
+0.4
Devils 1 Blues 2 +3.2
+0.4
Maple Leafs 5 Blues 6 (so)+3.2
*+0.3
Kings 3 Blues 4 (so)+2.9
+0.4
Canucks 5 Blues 4 (so)*-1.4
*-0.2
Wild 3 Blues 2 (ot)-1.4
*-0.1
Sharks 5 Sabres 2 -1.0
Hurricanes 3 Blue Jackets 4 -0.8
Bruins 2 Blackhawks 1 +0.8
Predators 3 Islanders 2 *-0.7
Devils 2 Canucks 5 *-0.6
Wild 4 Canucks 3 *+0.6
Blues 2 Sabres 3 (ot)*-0.5
*-0.1
Sabres 6 Kings 2 *+0.5
Lightning 4 Wild 3 *+0.5
Maple Leafs 4 Canucks 3 (ot)*+0.4
Bruins 5 Blues 4 (so)*-0.4
*-0.1
Ducks 0 Blackhawks 3 *+0.3
Blues 2 Bruins 3 (so)*-0.2
*-0.1
Oilers 3 Hurricanes 1 *+0.2
Predators 6 Blues 5 (so)*+0.2
*-0.1
Canadiens 3 Blackhawks 0 *+0.2
Blues 2 Capitals 3 (so)*+0.2
*-0.0
Canucks 0 Kings 5 *+0.2
Blackhawks 2 Capitals 5 +0.1
Blue Jackets 3 Maple Leafs 0 -0.1
Capitals 5 Red Wings 1 +0.1
Blue Jackets 3 Thrashers 5 +0.1
Senators 2 Blue Jackets 5 -0.0
Sabres 3 Blue Jackets 2 *+0.0
Islanders 4 Red Wings 5 *-0.0
Blue Jackets 3 Devils 4 (ot)*-0.0
Flames 0 Predators 4 -0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Blues vs Blackhawks+2.9+2.7+3.7*-0.1*-0.4-4.1
+0.4+0.3+0.4*-0.0*-0.1-0.5
Blues vs Red Wings+3.2+2.7+2.2*+0.3*-0.3-4.3
+0.5+0.3+0.4-0.1-0.2-0.6
Blues vs Red Wings+3.2+2.5+3.0*-0.3*-0.7-4.1
+0.5+0.3+0.4-0.2-0.1-0.6
Blues vs Blue Jackets+3.1+2.6+3.1*-0.8*-0.3-4.1
+0.4+0.3+0.4*-0.1-0.1-0.5
Sharks vs Blues-4.1*-0.5*-1.0+3.0+2.8+3.1
-0.5*-0.1-0.1+0.3+0.4+0.3
Blackhawks vs Blues-4.0*-0.4*-0.8+3.2+2.8+2.9
-0.5-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.4
Flames vs Blues-4.0*-0.2-1.5+2.9+3.1+2.8
-0.4*-0.0-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Sharks vs Blues-3.8*-0.7*-0.4+1.4+2.6+3.1
-0.5-0.1*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.4
Blues vs Blue Jackets+3.0+2.8+2.6*-0.5*-0.5-4.0
+0.4+0.3+0.3-0.1*-0.1-0.5
Oilers vs Blues-3.9*-0.1*-0.5+2.9+2.6+2.9
-0.5-0.0-0.1+0.4+0.3+0.4
Canucks vs Blues-3.7-0.9*-0.5+3.1+2.9+2.8
-0.4*-0.1*-0.1+0.4+0.3+0.3
Blues vs Canucks+3.0+2.4+2.7*-1.1*-0.4-3.8
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1-0.1-0.4
Blue Jackets vs Blues-3.8*-0.4*-1.1+2.5+2.8+2.9
-0.5-0.1-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.4
Blues vs Flames+2.7+2.8+3.1*+0.1-1.0-3.7
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.0*-0.1-0.4
Canadiens vs Blues-3.8*+0.3*+0.2+3.0+2.6+2.5
-0.4*-0.0*-0.0+0.4+0.3+0.3
Blues vs Wild+2.9+2.8+2.9*+0.0*-0.8-3.8
+0.4+0.3+0.3*-0.0-0.1-0.5
Blues vs Blackhawks+2.9+2.8+1.6-1.4*+0.2-3.8
+0.4+0.4+0.3-0.2-0.0-0.5
Stars vs Blues-3.6*-0.3*-0.7+3.1+2.2+2.7
-0.5-0.1*-0.1+0.4+0.3+0.4
Blues vs Avalanche+2.7+2.2+3.1*+0.4*-0.6-3.6
+0.3+0.3+0.3*+0.0*-0.1-0.4
Blues vs Avalanche+2.5+1.9+3.0*+0.8*-0.2-3.5
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.0*-0.1-0.4
Blues vs Flames+2.9+2.5+2.6*-0.5-0.9-3.6
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.0-0.1-0.4
Ducks vs Blues-3.6*-0.4*-0.9+2.7+2.3+2.8
-0.4-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.4
Flyers vs Blues-3.6*-0.1*-0.5+1.8+2.2+2.8
-0.4*-0.0*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Capitals vs Blues-3.5*-0.4*+0.7+2.8+1.5+2.7
-0.4*-0.1*+0.0+0.3+0.2+0.3
Rangers vs Blues-3.5*+0.1*-0.8+2.1+2.7+2.5
-0.4*-0.0*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Hurricanes vs Blues-3.5*-0.3*-0.1+2.1+2.8+2.4
-0.4*-0.0*-0.0+0.2+0.3+0.3
Blues vs Oilers+2.6+2.4+2.1*-0.6*+0.0-3.6
+0.3+0.4+0.3-0.2*-0.1-0.5
Sabres vs Blues-3.4*-0.3*-1.2+2.3+2.8+2.4
-0.4*-0.0*-0.1+0.3+0.4+0.3
Islanders vs Blues-3.3*-0.4*+0.3+2.9+2.1+2.4
-0.4*-0.1*-0.0+0.4+0.3+0.3
Blues vs Canadiens+2.6+2.3+2.5*-0.4*+0.1-3.6
+0.3+0.3+0.2*-0.0*-0.0-0.4
Blues vs Hurricanes+2.6+2.5+2.3*+0.2*-0.3-3.6
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1-0.0-0.4
Panthers vs Blues-3.6*-0.2*-0.4+2.3+2.5+2.6
-0.4*-0.0*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Lightning vs Blues-3.4*-0.1*-0.2+2.3+2.7+2.3
-0.4*-0.0*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Blues vs Ducks+2.6+2.5+2.6*-0.7*-0.3-3.5
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1-0.1-0.4
Thrashers vs Blues-3.5*-0.2*+0.1+2.5+2.4+2.5
-0.4*-0.0*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Blues vs Rangers+2.5+2.5+1.4*-0.0*+0.1-3.5
+0.3+0.3+0.2*-0.0*-0.0-0.4
Avalanche vs Blues-3.3*-0.6*+0.6+1.8+1.9+2.6
-0.4*-0.1*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Blues vs Islanders+2.6+2.1+2.1*-0.6*-0.1-3.4
+0.3+0.3+0.2*-0.1*-0.0-0.4
Blues vs Maple Leafs+2.5+2.5+2.5*+0.1*-0.3-3.5
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.0*-0.0-0.4
Predators vs Blues-3.3*-0.7*-0.8+2.4+2.2+2.6
-0.4*-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Blues vs Penguins+2.5+2.0+2.3*-0.2*-0.4-3.3
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.0*-0.1-0.4
Blues vs Ducks+2.5+2.3+1.6*+0.6*-0.3-3.3
+0.3+0.3+0.3+0.0*-0.0-0.5
Blues vs Panthers+2.2+2.2+2.5*-0.2*-0.1-3.2
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.0-0.4
Blues vs Thrashers+2.4+2.3+2.0*-0.1*-0.5-3.2
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.0*-0.1-0.4

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Blues finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
124-141In10035*
123326-6In95520*
122327-5In98256*
121328-4In94684*
120318-5In955164*
119308-6In946236*
118309-5In881110382*
117299-6In77212537*
116289-7In74251783*
1152810-6In6334201,177*
1142811-5In5440511,547*
1132711-6In45468101,983*
1122611-7In3451132002,594*
1112612-6In2355192003,109*
1102512-7In1652293103,916*
1092513-6In1047374204,612*
1082413-7In5414553105,263*
1072414-6In33254651005,741*
1062314-7In12359683103,303*
2415-5In12457683102,936*
1052315-6In01760597203,938*
2416-4In01661596202,587*
1042215-7100.0%01061411104006,533*
1032216-699.90656210158204,221*
2115-8In05573915912,379*
1022116-799.603501919135006,337*
1012117-698.1143151822923,114*
2016-898.11431519218202,834*
1002017-795.3134031525174005,325*
992018-690.3026021126259104,867*
981918-780.9020006233216304,101*
971919-666.81203183324813,492*
961819-749.290110293215302,906*
951820-633.05152235247102,337*
941720-719.5202153232142001,832*
931721-69.0117263622711,363*
921621-73.610319343111101,012*
911622-61.3011027372040752*
901522-70.81617392691523*
891523-60.81031135341520371*
881423-7Out183032263260*
871424-6Out316383571155*
861324-7Out110343419298*
851325-6Out7344115474*
841326-5Out8174031452*
831226-6Out253138616*
821227-5Out93943923*
811127-6Out40605*
801027-7Out4343147*
53044-0Out1008
Total:88.1%71735246875321000100,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Lottery seed
Blue Jackets 6 Blues 4 +1.2
Avalanche 2 Blues 1 +1.1
Oilers 2 Blues 0 +1.1
Blues 0 Stars 2 +1.1
Red Wings 3 Blues 2 +1.1
Blues 3 Stars 6 +1.1
Blues 1 Oilers 2 +1.1
Blues 0 Sharks 2 +1.1
Blues 1 Kings 3 +1.1
Blues 2 Kings 5 +1.1
Senators 3 Blues 2 +1.1
Blues 1 Flyers 3 +1.0
Blackhawks 1 Blues 4 -0.9
Red Wings 3 Blues 4 -0.9
Kings 2 Blues 3 -0.9
Blues 4 Lightning 3 (ot)-0.9
Blues 4 Predators 1 -0.9
Blues 4 Wild 1 -0.9
Blues 6 Predators 3 -0.9
Blues 3 Canucks 2 -0.9
Coyotes 0 Blues 1 -0.8
Coyotes 2 Blues 5 -0.8
Blues 3 Devils 1 -0.8
Stars 4 Blues 6 -0.8
Wild 3 Blues 5 -0.8
Flames 2 Blues 5 -0.8
Blues 4 Coyotes 3 -0.8
Blues 4 Senators 1 -0.8
Blues 5 Coyotes 4 -0.8
Penguins 3 Blues 4 -0.8
Blues 2 Sharks 0 -0.8
Ducks 3 Blues 5 -0.8
Devils 1 Blues 2 -0.8
Kings 3 Blues 4 (so)-0.7
Maple Leafs 5 Blues 6 (so)-0.6
Canucks 5 Blues 4 (so)*+0.3
Red Wings 3 Coyotes 2 (so)*+0.3
Oilers 5 Red Wings 4 (so)*-0.2
Lightning 2 Sabres 3 (so)+0.2
Sharks 6 Oilers 5 (so)+0.2
Hurricanes 5 Ducks 4 (so)*+0.2
Red Wings 3 Canucks 2 (ot)+0.2
Coyotes 4 Penguins 5 (ot)*+0.2
Predators 1 Bruins 4 -0.2
Blues 2 Sabres 3 (ot)*+0.2
Wild 3 Blues 2 (ot)*+0.2
Avalanche 3 Blue Jackets 4 (so)*+0.2
Bruins 5 Blues 4 (so)*+0.2
Blues 2 Bruins 3 (so)*+0.1
Penguins 4 Rangers 5 (ot)*-0.1
Predators 6 Blues 5 (so)*+0.1
Predators 4 Devils 1 +0.1
Blue Jackets 3 Thrashers 5 -0.1
Blues 2 Capitals 3 (so)*+0.1
Wild 4 Canucks 3 *-0.1
Ducks 6 Canucks 2 *-0.0
Senators 2 Blue Jackets 5 *+0.0
Sharks 0 Capitals 1 *-0.0
Sharks 4 Bruins 3 +0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Blues vs Red Wings-0.9-0.6-0.8*+0.2*+0.3+1.1
Blues vs Red Wings-0.9-0.6-0.8+0.3*+0.2+1.1
Blues vs Blackhawks-0.7-0.6-0.8*+0.1*+0.1+0.9
Blue Jackets vs Blues+1.0+0.2+0.2-0.6-0.7-0.8
Blues vs Blue Jackets-0.8-0.6-0.7+0.2+0.2+1.0
Oilers vs Blues+1.0+0.1+0.1-0.7-0.7-0.7
Blackhawks vs Blues+0.9+0.2*+0.1-0.7-0.6-0.7
Canucks vs Blues+0.9*+0.2*+0.2-0.8-0.6-0.7
Canadiens vs Blues+0.9+0.1*+0.1-0.8-0.7-0.6
Blues vs Blue Jackets-0.7-0.6-0.7+0.2+0.1+0.9
Blues vs Blackhawks-0.7-0.7-0.6*+0.3*+0.0+0.9
Blues vs Wild-0.7-0.7-0.7*+0.1+0.2+0.9
Sharks vs Blues+0.9*+0.1+0.2-0.6-0.7-0.7
Stars vs Blues+0.9+0.2*+0.2-0.7-0.6-0.7
Ducks vs Blues+0.9+0.2*+0.1-0.5-0.6-0.7
Sabres vs Blues+0.9*+0.1+0.2-0.6-0.7-0.6
Blues vs Oilers-0.7-0.7-0.6+0.3*+0.2+0.9
Blues vs Canucks-0.7-0.6-0.7*+0.2*+0.1+0.9
Sharks vs Blues+0.9*+0.2*+0.0-0.6-0.6-0.7
Capitals vs Blues+0.9+0.1-0.0-0.6-0.5-0.7
Blues vs Hurricanes-0.6-0.7-0.6+0.1*+0.1+0.9
Lightning vs Blues+0.9+0.1*+0.1-0.7-0.7-0.6
Blues vs Ducks-0.6-0.7-0.6*+0.1+0.1+0.9
Thrashers vs Blues+0.9*+0.1*+0.1-0.6-0.6-0.7
Blues vs Thrashers-0.7-0.6-0.6*+0.1*+0.1+0.9
Hurricanes vs Blues+0.9+0.1*+0.1-0.5-0.7-0.6
Blues vs Ducks-0.7-0.6-0.5*-0.1*+0.1+0.9
Islanders vs Blues+0.8*+0.1*+0.0-0.7-0.5-0.6
Rangers vs Blues+0.9+0.0+0.2-0.6-0.6-0.6
Blues vs Flames-0.7-0.6-0.6*+0.1*+0.1+0.9
Blues vs Flames-0.6-0.7-0.7+0.1*+0.1+0.9
Blues vs Maple Leafs-0.6-0.6-0.6*+0.0*+0.1+0.9
Blues vs Canadiens-0.6-0.6*-0.5*+0.1*+0.0+0.9
Predators vs Blues+0.8*+0.1+0.2-0.5-0.6-0.7
Blues vs Avalanche-0.6-0.6-0.6*-0.0+0.1+0.9
Blues vs Avalanche-0.7-0.5-0.6+0.1*+0.1+0.8
Flyers vs Blues+0.9+0.1*+0.0-0.5-0.6-0.6
Flames vs Blues+0.9*+0.0+0.2-0.6-0.6-0.6
Panthers vs Blues+0.9*+0.1*+0.1-0.6-0.6-0.6
Blues vs Rangers-0.6-0.6-0.5*+0.1+0.1+0.9
Avalanche vs Blues+0.8*+0.1*+0.1-0.6-0.5-0.6
Blues vs Penguins-0.6-0.6*-0.5*+0.1*+0.1+0.8

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
126-141100
125346-48813
124325-7937
123326-69055
122327-575232
121328-470246
120318-566295
119308-670246
118309-5543510110
117299-641372012
116289-732422221
1152810-6234029520
1142811-5124230951
1132711-6737331380100
1122611-733030221301100
1112612-612225301812000
1102512-701619332622110
1092513-609133431622200
1082413-75734369233010
1072414-602329361824411000
1062314-71122332514533010
2415-51123332515623010
1052315-600162833145461200
1042215-7001021400446824000
1032216-60061542022810681200
1022116-70384101189101035000
1012117-61538105513157902
2016-815381056131467120
1002017-713320032121312143400
992018-6012502110817187810
981918-70019000641818141351
971919-60120321612211811410
961819-79001010623201910200
951820-65105319152518820
941720-72021148212816620
931721-6110751826241341
921621-7103292227241020
911622-6010313262721711
901522-712616272914410
891523-61001112727191120
881423-7021331301490
871424-61101330261631
861324-757223327411
851325-6151936201241
841225-721519273142
831226-6619253813
821227-59132226229
811127-6402040
80825-11291457
53044-0100
Total:26512152012223444433321110000000