How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Sabres 2 Capitals 3 -5.5
-0.6
Sabres 2 Penguins 3 -5.4
-0.5
Hurricanes 3 Sabres 2 -5.3
-0.6
Lightning 5 Sabres 3 -5.3
-0.5
Sabres 1 Senators 3 -5.3
-0.5
Avalanche 6 Sabres 2 -5.2
-0.5
Coyotes 5 Sabres 4 -5.1
-0.5
Canucks 4 Sabres 1 -5.1
-0.5
Sabres 0 Oilers 2 -4.9
-0.5
Lightning 2 Sabres 3 (so)+4.9
+0.5
Sharks 5 Sabres 2 -4.8
-0.5
Maple Leafs 4 Sabres 6 +4.5
+0.5
Sabres 3 Islanders 1 +4.4
+0.4
Bruins 2 Sabres 4 +4.4
+0.5
Islanders 1 Sabres 4 +4.3
+0.4
Islanders 4 Sabres 5 (ot)+4.3
+0.4
Sabres 4 Panthers 0 +4.2
+0.4
Sabres 5 Thrashers 1 +4.2
+0.4
Sabres 4 Senators 3 +4.2
+0.4
Sabres 5 Penguins 1 +4.2
+0.4
Sabres 4 Canadiens 3 +4.2
+0.4
Sabres 5 Thrashers 4 +4.1
+0.4
Sabres 4 Avalanche 0 +4.0
+0.4
Sabres 6 Kings 2 +3.9
+0.4
Sabres 5 Canucks 2 +3.9
+0.4
Sabres 8 Red Wings 3 +3.9
+0.4
Blue Jackets 1 Sabres 3 +3.9
+0.4
Sabres 3 Blue Jackets 2 +3.9
+0.4
Sabres 3 Bruins 2 +3.8
+0.4
Stars 2 Sabres 3 +3.8
+0.4
Sabres 7 Ducks 0 +3.7
+0.4
Flames 3 Sabres 5 +3.5
+0.3
Sabres 7 Predators 4 +3.4
+0.3
Blues 2 Sabres 3 (ot)+3.1
+0.3
Hurricanes 4 Sabres 3 (so)*-1.9
*-0.2
Blue Jackets 5 Islanders 4 (so)*-1.6
*-0.2
Thrashers 3 Sabres 2 (ot)*-0.9
*-0.1
Canucks 1 Canadiens 6 -0.9
-0.1
Maple Leafs 0 Senators 2 +0.8
Rangers 3 Sharks 2 -0.8
Blackhawks 4 Senators 2 +0.8
+0.1
Avalanche 3 Capitals 4 -0.8
Bruins 1 Flames 5 +0.8
Stars 4 Penguins 2 *+0.7
Islanders 5 Capitals 3 *+0.5
Canadiens 3 Blackhawks 0 *-0.5
Ducks 2 Blue Jackets 3 *-0.4
Stars 3 Devils 2 (ot)*+0.3
Flames 3 Canucks 4 *-0.3
Red Wings 6 Penguins 5 (so)*+0.3
Bruins 4 Hurricanes 5 *+0.2
+0.0
Canadiens 1 Wild 4 *-0.2
Sabres 2 Blackhawks 3 (so)*-0.2
*-0.1
Maple Leafs 4 Blue Jackets 3 (so)*-0.2
Blues 2 Bruins 3 (so)*-0.2
Thrashers 5 Canadiens 4 (so)*-0.1
Thrashers 1 Blue Jackets 2 +0.1
Blackhawks 4 Bruins 3 (ot)*+0.0
Avalanche 3 Bruins 2 (so)*+0.0
Oilers 2 Senators 3 *-0.0
Senators 3 Hurricanes 5 +0.0
Oilers 4 Maple Leafs 5 *-0.0
Blue Jackets 3 Blackhawks 2 *+0.0
Flyers 2 Canadiens 4 +0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Penguins vs Sabres-2.5*-0.2*-0.1+1.9+1.4+1.9
-0.4-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.2+0.3
Thrashers vs Sabres-2.3*-0.4*-0.3+2.0+1.7+1.8
-0.3*-0.1*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Sabres vs Hurricanes+1.6+1.6+2.0*-0.1*-0.3-2.3
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.0-0.0-0.4
Sabres vs Lightning+1.9+1.4+1.6*+0.0*-0.3-2.4
+0.2+0.2+0.3*+0.0*-0.1-0.3
Senators vs Sabres-2.3*-0.5*-0.6+1.1+1.5+2.0
-0.4-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Sabres vs Lightning+1.8+1.5+2.0-1.5*-0.5-2.2
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1-0.1-0.3
Senators vs Sabres-2.4*-0.4*+0.4+1.7+1.5+1.8
-0.4-0.1-0.0+0.3+0.2+0.3
Canadiens vs Sabres-2.1*-0.4*+0.4+2.0+1.6+1.5
-0.4-0.1-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Capitals vs Sabres-2.3-0.8*+0.2+1.7+1.4+1.9
-0.4-0.1*-0.1+0.2+0.3+0.3
Sabres vs Flyers+1.8+1.6*+0.9*-0.2*-0.1-2.3
+0.3+0.3+0.2*-0.0-0.1-0.4
Flyers vs Sabres-2.3*-0.2*-0.1+1.8+1.5+1.7
-0.4-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.2+0.3
Sabres vs Sharks+1.4+1.7+1.9*+0.5*-0.1-2.2
+0.2+0.2+0.3*+0.0*-0.0-0.3
Capitals vs Sabres-2.3*-0.0*+0.1+1.1+1.5+1.7
-0.3*-0.0-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.3
Sabres vs Hurricanes+1.8+1.4+1.3*-0.7*-0.4-2.2
+0.3+0.2+0.2*-0.0*-0.1-0.3
Blackhawks vs Sabres-2.2*-0.3*+0.4*+0.9+1.9+1.5
-0.3*-0.1*-0.0+0.2+0.3+0.2
Wild vs Sabres-2.2*-0.1*+0.1+1.2+1.9+1.5
-0.3-0.0*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Panthers vs Sabres-2.2*-0.2*+0.2+1.4+1.8+1.5
-0.3-0.1*+0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Penguins vs Sabres-2.3*-0.0*-0.4+1.6+1.5+1.7
-0.4-0.0*-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.3
Sabres vs Flyers+1.7+1.4+1.5*-0.3*+0.0-2.3
+0.3+0.2+0.2-0.1*-0.0-0.4
Sabres vs Devils+1.3+1.2+2.1*+0.1*-0.1-1.9
+0.2+0.2+0.3*-0.0*-0.0-0.3
Sabres vs Canadiens+1.4+1.4+1.9*+0.5*-0.5-2.0
+0.3+0.3+0.2-0.0-0.1-0.4
Devils vs Sabres-2.1*-0.5*-0.5+1.8+1.4+1.7
-0.3*-0.1*-0.1+0.2+0.3+0.3
Sabres vs Capitals+1.7+1.5+1.3*-0.5*-0.0-2.2
+0.3+0.2+0.2*-0.1*-0.0-0.4
Devils vs Sabres-2.1*-0.1*+0.7+1.2+1.8+1.3
-0.3*-0.0*+0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Sabres vs Maple Leafs+1.6+1.5+1.7*-0.4*-0.1-2.2
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.0-0.1-0.3
Sabres vs Panthers+1.5+1.6+1.3*+0.3*+0.3-2.3
+0.2+0.2*+0.2+0.0*-0.0-0.3
Sabres vs Bruins+1.5+1.4+1.9*-0.3*-0.4-2.0
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.1*-0.0-0.3
Sabres vs Maple Leafs+1.5+1.7+1.4*+0.5*-0.3-2.2
+0.2+0.3+0.2*-0.0*-0.0-0.3
Rangers vs Sabres-2.2*+0.1*-0.4+1.2+1.3+1.6
-0.3-0.0*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.3
Rangers vs Sabres-2.2*+0.1*+0.3+1.5+1.3+1.6
-0.3-0.0-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.3
Bruins vs Sabres-2.1*-0.0*-0.5+1.5+1.3+1.6
-0.3*-0.0-0.1+0.3+0.2+0.2
Sabres vs Rangers+1.6+1.6+1.1*-0.2*-0.3-2.1
+0.3+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.3
Red Wings vs Sabres-2.1*+0.3*-0.1+1.4+1.5+1.4
-0.3-0.0-0.0+0.2+0.3+0.2
Flyers vs Sabres-2.1*-0.1*+0.1+1.1+1.2+1.6
-0.3*-0.0*-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.3
Maple Leafs vs Sabres-2.0*-0.2*-0.2+1.6+1.3+1.4
-0.3*-0.0*-0.0+0.3+0.2+0.2
Sabres vs Rangers+1.5+1.6*+1.0*+0.4-0.7-1.9
+0.3+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.3
Canadiens vs Sabres-2.0*-0.0*-0.5*+0.7+1.5+1.5
-0.4-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Sabres finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
126-147In10091*
125348-6In98260*
124338-7In8929111*
123339-6In9416180*
1223310-5In8929298*
1213210-6In8839404*
1203211-5In80416586*
1193111-6In73621830*
1183011-7In649261,080*
1173012-6In571203201,477*
1162912-7In461603701,880*
1152913-6In4015044102,461*
1142813-7In301914913,080*
1132814-6In2118159203,733*
1122714-7In1517262404,269*
1112715-6In917265604,806*
1102615-7In5143671105,324*
1092515-8In31036618102,639*
2616-6In2114641723,181*
1082516-7In1836025306,125*
1072416-8In1535232606,256*
1062417-7In034423911103,437*
2518-5In03343401022,943*
1052418-699.9%233243173003,477*
2216-10In23324318302,549*
1042318-7100.0122142267105,849*
1032218-899.701143633122005,523*
1022219-799.10172837216105,065*
1012220-697.901319362910204,323*
1002120-795.40112293518403,798*
992121-689.7005223526913,160*
982021-780.300313303417202,600*
972022-667.9017243626602,163*
961922-756.7041735321111,665*
951923-639.1019293918301,249*
941823-726.305214127501,007*
931824-614.50213413492725*
921724-78.9183142162540*
911725-63.7427452230352*
901625-71.50116353782273*
891525-80.61113639121170*
881526-7Out7285015102*
871426-8Out4163437767*
861326-9Out333327633*
851327-8Out103338101021*
841328-7Out173342812*
831329-6Out20404010*
821330-5Out25754*
811129-8Out75254*
51048-0Out1008
Total:93.8%962341812854210000100,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Lottery seed
Sabres 2 Capitals 3 +1.1
Hurricanes 3 Sabres 2 +1.1
Coyotes 5 Sabres 4 +1.1
Sabres 2 Penguins 3 +1.1
Lightning 5 Sabres 3 +1.1
Avalanche 6 Sabres 2 +1.1
Sabres 1 Senators 3 +1.1
Sabres 0 Oilers 2 +1.1
Canucks 4 Sabres 1 +1.0
Sharks 5 Sabres 2 +1.0
Lightning 2 Sabres 3 (so)-1.0
Maple Leafs 4 Sabres 6 -0.9
Bruins 2 Sabres 4 -0.9
Sabres 4 Senators 3 -0.9
Islanders 4 Sabres 5 (ot)-0.9
Sabres 8 Red Wings 3 -0.9
Islanders 1 Sabres 4 -0.9
Sabres 3 Islanders 1 -0.9
Sabres 5 Penguins 1 -0.9
Sabres 4 Canadiens 3 -0.9
Sabres 5 Thrashers 1 -0.9
Stars 2 Sabres 3 -0.9
Sabres 4 Panthers 0 -0.9
Sabres 5 Thrashers 4 -0.9
Blue Jackets 1 Sabres 3 -0.9
Sabres 6 Kings 2 -0.8
Sabres 5 Canucks 2 -0.8
Sabres 4 Avalanche 0 -0.8
Sabres 3 Blue Jackets 2 -0.8
Sabres 3 Bruins 2 -0.8
Sabres 7 Ducks 0 -0.8
Sabres 7 Predators 4 -0.8
Flames 3 Sabres 5 -0.7
Blues 2 Sabres 3 (ot)-0.7
Blue Jackets 5 Islanders 4 (so)*+0.4
Hurricanes 4 Sabres 3 (so)*+0.4
Maple Leafs 4 Blue Jackets 3 (so)*+0.4
Blues 2 Bruins 3 (so)*+0.3
Oilers 4 Lightning 3 (so)+0.2
Devils 4 Maple Leafs 3 (so)*+0.2
Thrashers 5 Canadiens 4 (so)*+0.2
Stars 2 Rangers 1 (so)*+0.2
Flyers 5 Bruins 6 (so)*+0.2
Maple Leafs 5 Blues 6 (so)*-0.2
Blackhawks 4 Senators 2 -0.2
Maple Leafs 0 Senators 2 *-0.2
Blues 2 Capitals 3 (so)*+0.2
Thrashers 3 Sabres 2 (ot)*+0.1
Sabres 2 Blackhawks 3 (so)*+0.1
Capitals 2 Blue Jackets 1 (ot)*+0.1
Canadiens 4 Coyotes 3 (so)*-0.1
Rangers 7 Maple Leafs 0 -0.1
Capitals 3 Bruins 2 -0.1
Capitals 2 Senators 1 -0.1
Blackhawks 4 Bruins 3 (ot)*-0.1
Maple Leafs 4 Hurricanes 3 (so)*+0.1
Blue Jackets 5 Bruins 2 -0.1
Wild 1 Blackhawks 3 *-0.0
Canadiens 5 Capitals 4 *+0.0
Blue Jackets 3 Blackhawks 2 *-0.0
Maple Leafs 3 Panthers 2 +0.0
Coyotes 2 Panthers 1 *-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Canadiens vs Sabres+0.8+0.2+0.3-0.5-0.5-0.7
Sabres vs Canadiens-0.7-0.6-0.5+0.1+0.3+0.8
Canadiens vs Sabres+0.8+0.2+0.2-0.6-0.6-0.7
Sabres vs Hurricanes-0.5-0.5-0.6*+0.0*+0.1+0.7
Flyers vs Sabres+0.8*+0.1*+0.2-0.5-0.5-0.6
Senators vs Sabres+0.7+0.2+0.1-0.6-0.4-0.6
Senators vs Sabres+0.8+0.2*+0.1-0.5-0.6-0.6
Penguins vs Sabres+0.8*+0.1*+0.1-0.5-0.5-0.6
Capitals vs Sabres+0.7+0.2*+0.1-0.5-0.5-0.6
Sabres vs Flyers-0.6-0.5-0.5*+0.2+0.1+0.7
Penguins vs Sabres+0.7+0.1*+0.1-0.5-0.5-0.6
Sabres vs Rangers-0.6-0.5-0.4+0.1+0.2+0.7
Sabres vs Maple Leafs-0.5-0.6-0.5+0.0*+0.1+0.7
Red Wings vs Sabres+0.7+0.1*+0.1-0.4-0.6-0.5
Flyers vs Sabres+0.7+0.1*+0.1-0.5-0.4-0.6
Sabres vs Flyers-0.6-0.5-0.4*+0.1*+0.1+0.7
Capitals vs Sabres+0.7+0.1+0.2-0.5-0.5-0.6
Thrashers vs Sabres+0.7+0.1*+0.1-0.6-0.5-0.5
Sabres vs Capitals-0.5-0.5-0.5+0.2*+0.1+0.7
Maple Leafs vs Sabres+0.7*+0.1*+0.1-0.6-0.5-0.5
Devils vs Sabres+0.7*+0.1*+0.2-0.5-0.5-0.6
Sabres vs Hurricanes-0.6-0.5-0.4+0.1*+0.2+0.7
Sabres vs Sharks-0.5-0.5-0.6-0.1*+0.1+0.7
Sabres vs Lightning-0.5-0.6-0.6*+0.2*+0.2+0.7
Sabres vs Stars-0.5-0.5-0.6+0.1+0.1+0.7
Bruins vs Sabres+0.7*+0.0*+0.2-0.6-0.5-0.5
Rangers vs Sabres+0.7+0.1*+0.1-0.5-0.5-0.5
Panthers vs Sabres+0.7*+0.1*-0.1-0.6-0.5-0.5
Wild vs Sabres+0.7+0.1*+0.0-0.5-0.5-0.5
Sabres vs Lightning-0.5-0.5-0.6*-0.1+0.1+0.7
Rangers vs Sabres+0.7*+0.0+0.1-0.4-0.5-0.5
Blackhawks vs Sabres+0.7+0.1*+0.0-0.4-0.5-0.5
Sabres vs Rangers-0.5-0.5-0.4*+0.1+0.1+0.7
Sabres vs Wild-0.5-0.5-0.5*+0.0+0.2+0.7
Sabres vs Maple Leafs-0.5-0.5-0.5*+0.1*+0.1+0.7
Kings vs Sabres+0.7+0.1+0.1-0.4-0.5-0.5
Sabres vs Devils-0.5-0.4-0.5*+0.0*+0.1+0.7
Sabres vs Coyotes-0.5-0.4-0.5*+0.1*+0.1+0.7
Predators vs Sabres+0.7*-0.0*+0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
126-147100
125348-6982
124338-78929
123339-692216
1223310-587229
1213210-684339
1203211-5764416
1193111-6666621
1183011-75689260
1173012-6451212003100
1162912-7351216003700
1152913-62614151043110
1142813-7161418114821
1132814-6813162155320
1122714-741114320575400
1112715-627135205511600
1102615-714863051161100
1092515-8025630422317110
2616-602563043221511
1082516-7013530322823230
2415-913530302923230
1072416-80114312131275600
1062417-7002311230281111010
2518-50122112313010902
1052418-6021162626171623000
1042318-7011121919232157010
1032218-8000101411252311121200
1022219-70010742420171835010
1012220-600003218122420910020
1002120-70010125242015162400
992121-600052201322207910
982021-70003113624191516400
972022-6017221152120930
961922-70401782819157210
951923-6019426162314710
941823-70512011212213610
931824-60211251825239400
921724-718391925211230
911725-6431228301850
901625-701151825301820
891525-8112922341992
881526-7151725251982
871426-8361521361531
861326-9321182730
851327-8291929195
841328-7178173325
831329-61010303020
821330-57525
811129-82575
51048-0100
Total:63421021131187553322111000000000