How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Red Wings 4 Oilers 6 -5.6
-0.6
Red Wings 3 Blues 4 -5.5
-0.6
Coyotes 4 Red Wings 2 -5.4
-0.5
Red Wings 1 Flames 2 -5.3
-0.5
Red Wings 3 Sharks 6 -5.3
-0.5
Red Wings 3 Blackhawks 4 -5.3
-0.6
Capitals 5 Red Wings 1 -5.2
-0.5
Oilers 4 Red Wings 1 -5.2
-0.5
Wild 5 Red Wings 1 -5.2
-0.5
Red Wings 1 Canadiens 3 -5.1
-0.5
Lightning 1 Red Wings 0 -5.1
-0.5
Penguins 3 Red Wings 1 -5.1
-0.5
Sabres 8 Red Wings 3 -5.0
-0.5
Rangers 2 Red Wings 1 -4.7
-0.5
Canadiens 3 Red Wings 0 -4.6
-0.5
Coyotes 3 Red Wings 4 (ot)+4.4
+0.4
Flames 2 Red Wings 3 +4.3
+0.5
Red Wings 3 Avalanche 2 +4.3
+0.4
Red Wings 3 Blues 2 +4.3
+0.5
Red Wings 3 Canucks 2 (ot)+4.3
+0.4
Red Wings 5 Predators 2 +4.2
+0.4
Red Wings 3 Predators 1 +4.2
+0.4
Predators 2 Red Wings 6 +4.1
+0.4
Red Wings 4 Coyotes 3 +4.1
+0.4
Stars 2 Red Wings 3 (ot)+4.0
+0.4
Bruins 3 Red Wings 4 +3.9
+0.4
Avalanche 3 Red Wings 4 +3.9
+0.4
Red Wings 3 Rangers 2 +3.9
+0.4
Islanders 4 Red Wings 5 +3.9
+0.4
Red Wings 5 Flyers 1 +3.8
+0.4
Red Wings 6 Islanders 1 +3.7
+0.4
Kings 1 Red Wings 3 +3.7
+0.4
Red Wings 5 Thrashers 0 +3.7
+0.4
Red Wings 4 Blue Jackets 3 +3.6
+0.4
Red Wings 6 Penguins 5 (so)+3.4
+0.4
Red Wings 3 Coyotes 2 (so)+3.0
+0.4
Oilers 5 Red Wings 4 (so)-2.3
*-0.2
Capitals 5 Panthers 4 (so)-2.2
*-0.2
Predators 4 Red Wings 3 (so)*-1.7
*-0.1
Coyotes 4 Penguins 5 (ot)-1.7
Avalanche 3 Bruins 2 (so)*-0.9
Stars 2 Rangers 1 (so)*-0.8
Oilers 2 Senators 3 +0.8
Flames 0 Rangers 5 +0.8
Panthers 2 Flames 1 +0.8
Thrashers 1 Blue Jackets 2 *-0.7
-0.1
Bruins 5 Blues 4 (so)*-0.7
Lightning 6 Coyotes 3 *+0.6
Red Wings 3 Oilers 4 (so)*+0.5
*+0.0
Panthers 6 Kings 4 *+0.4
*+0.0
Rangers 2 Flyers 3 *-0.4
Blackhawks 2 Devils 0 *-0.3
*-0.0
Wild 2 Penguins 1 *-0.3
Bruins 3 Blue Jackets 0 *+0.2
Flyers 4 Red Wings 3 (ot)*-0.2
*-0.1
Blues 1 Oilers 2 *+0.2
Hurricanes 5 Ducks 4 (so)*-0.2
Sabres 1 Senators 3 *-0.2
Thrashers 4 Red Wings 3 (ot)*-0.0
Blue Jackets 3 Panthers 1 *-0.1
Predators 0 Canucks 4 +0.1
Avalanche 4 Islanders 0 *-0.0
Maple Leafs 4 Sabres 6 *-0.0
Stars 4 Flyers 3 (ot)-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Blackhawks vs Red Wings-7.7*-0.7*-0.7+5.7+4.3+6.0
-0.6*-0.1*-0.1+0.4+0.3+0.5
Red Wings vs Flames+5.3+5.8+5.8*-1.5*-1.1-7.3
+0.4+0.4+0.4*-0.1*-0.1-0.5
Red Wings vs Blackhawks+5.7+4.6+4.7*-1.0*-0.9-7.3
+0.4+0.4+0.4*-0.1-0.1-0.6
Red Wings vs Blue Jackets+5.8+4.8+4.2*-1.1-1.7-7.1
+0.4+0.4+0.4*-0.0*-0.1-0.6
Blue Jackets vs Red Wings-7.2-1.6*-1.9+5.1+4.9+5.7
-0.5-0.1*-0.2+0.4+0.4+0.4
Blue Jackets vs Red Wings-7.0*-0.9-2.4+4.9+3.6+5.9
-0.5*-0.1-0.2+0.4+0.3+0.4
Sharks vs Red Wings-7.2-1.3*-1.9+5.0+5.2+5.6
-0.5*-0.1*-0.1+0.4+0.4+0.4
Red Wings vs Lightning+4.6+4.8+5.8*-0.4*-0.4-6.6
+0.4+0.4+0.4*-0.1-0.0-0.5
Canucks vs Red Wings-6.9-1.6*-0.3+3.8+4.8+5.5
-0.5-0.1*-0.1+0.4+0.4+0.4
Blackhawks vs Red Wings-6.9-1.5-2.3+5.5+4.6+5.5
-0.5-0.1-0.2+0.4+0.4+0.4
Red Wings vs Stars+5.4+4.5+5.0*-1.4*-0.8-7.0
+0.4+0.4+0.4*-0.1-0.1-0.5
Red Wings vs Capitals+4.8+3.7+6.0*-1.4*-0.7-6.3
+0.4+0.3+0.5-0.1*-0.1-0.5
Blues vs Red Wings-6.9*-1.2*-1.6+4.5+4.8+5.4
-0.6-0.2-0.2+0.4+0.4+0.5
Red Wings vs Stars+5.4+4.7+4.7*-0.8-1.3-6.9
+0.4+0.4+0.4*-0.1-0.1-0.5
Sharks vs Red Wings-6.8-1.4*-0.4+5.0+4.2+5.4
-0.5-0.1*-0.1+0.4+0.3+0.4
Flames vs Red Wings-6.8*-1.2*-2.0+5.4+4.5+5.2
-0.5*-0.1*-0.1+0.4+0.3+0.4
Red Wings vs Sharks+5.3+4.6+4.7*-1.8*-0.8-6.8
+0.4+0.3+0.4*-0.1*-0.0-0.5
Avalanche vs Red Wings-6.7*-1.0*-0.1+5.2+4.8+4.9
-0.5-0.1*-0.1+0.4+0.4+0.4
Stars vs Red Wings-6.7*-1.0*-1.6+4.6+4.9+5.1
-0.5*-0.1*-0.2+0.4+0.4+0.4
Red Wings vs Sabres+4.4+4.6+5.3*-0.5*+0.1-6.5
+0.4+0.4+0.4*-0.1*-0.0-0.5
Red Wings vs Maple Leafs+4.6+4.3+5.5*-0.6-1.3-6.2
+0.4+0.3+0.4*-0.1*-0.1-0.5
Blues vs Red Wings-6.4-1.6*-1.2+4.6+4.2+5.2
-0.6-0.2-0.1+0.4+0.3+0.5
Red Wings vs Ducks+4.8+3.9+5.4*-1.8-1.3-6.2
+0.4+0.3+0.4*-0.1*-0.1-0.5
Canucks vs Red Wings-6.4-1.4*-1.3+5.0+4.1+5.1
-0.5*-0.1*-0.1+0.4+0.3+0.4
Red Wings vs Wild+4.9+4.8+4.0*-0.5*-1.2-6.5
+0.4+0.4+0.3*-0.0*-0.1-0.5
Ducks vs Red Wings-6.4-1.4*-0.4+3.4+4.9+4.9
-0.5-0.1-0.1+0.3+0.4+0.4
Red Wings vs Wild+4.9+4.9+4.4*-0.7-1.3-6.4
+0.4+0.4+0.4*-0.1-0.1-0.5
Red Wings vs Kings+4.8+3.9+4.5*-0.0*-0.1-6.6
+0.4+0.3+0.4*+0.0-0.1-0.5
Red Wings vs Ducks+4.5+5.2+4.6-2.1*-0.8-6.1
+0.4+0.4+0.4-0.2*-0.1-0.5
Red Wings vs Canucks+4.9+4.5+5.0*-1.2-1.4-6.3
+0.4+0.4+0.4*-0.1-0.1-0.5
Red Wings vs Avalanche+4.7+4.9+4.5*-1.3*-0.5-6.4
+0.4+0.4+0.4*-0.1*-0.1-0.5
Red Wings vs Senators+4.8+4.4+4.4*-0.8*-0.6-6.4
+0.4+0.3+0.4*-0.0*-0.0-0.5
Panthers vs Red Wings-6.4*-0.9*+0.7+4.7+4.8+4.6
-0.5*-0.1*+0.0+0.4+0.4+0.4
Red Wings vs Kings+4.7+4.1+4.8*+0.3*-0.7-6.4
+0.4+0.3+0.3*-0.0*-0.1-0.5
Senators vs Red Wings-6.1*-0.3*-0.6+5.0+4.0+4.4
-0.5*-0.0*-0.1+0.4+0.4+0.3
Wild vs Red Wings-6.0*-0.6*-0.3+5.1+4.0+4.4
-0.5-0.0*-0.1+0.4+0.3+0.4
Ducks vs Red Wings-6.0-1.9*-1.0+2.7+5.1+4.8
-0.5-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.4+0.4
Devils vs Red Wings-6.2*-0.9*-0.1+3.5+4.1+4.8
-0.5*-0.1*-0.0+0.3+0.4+0.4
Hurricanes vs Red Wings-6.2*-0.7*-0.8+4.2+4.8+4.5
-0.5*-0.1-0.1+0.3+0.4+0.4
Red Wings vs Panthers+4.5+4.6+4.7*-0.1*-0.7-6.2
+0.4+0.3+0.3*+0.0-0.1-0.5
Red Wings vs Devils+4.7+4.5+2.7*-0.7*-0.7-6.1
+0.4+0.3+0.3-0.1-0.1-0.5
Red Wings vs Bruins+4.6+4.2+3.8*-0.0*-0.9-6.1
+0.4+0.3+0.3*-0.0*-0.1-0.5
Kings vs Red Wings-6.2*-0.4*-0.9+4.5+4.4+4.5
-0.5*-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.4
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings-6.1*-0.3*-0.4+4.5+4.3+4.4
-0.5*-0.0*-0.1+0.4+0.3+0.4
Red Wings vs Hurricanes+4.6+4.3+3.4*-1.5*-1.0-5.9
+0.4+0.4+0.3*-0.1-0.1-0.5

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Red Wings finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
121-137In10016*
120357-3In88138*
119347-4In96424*
118337-5In881340*
117338-4In891182*
116328-5In792190*
115318-6In772021162*
114319-5In5934330289*
113309-6In494165433*
1123010-5In37441260612*
1112910-6In26481681842*
1102911-5In16462212301,165*
1092811-6In11403113411,700*
1082812-5In43538137202,204*
1072712-6In227411412402,735*
1062612-7In1174713157103,310*
1052613-6100.0%011431019123003,874*
1042513-7100.00642718197104,619*
1032514-699.804354172314305,357*
1022414-799.42292132522715,670*
1012415-697.9123182528132006,174*
1002315-792.9017041831227103,428*
2416-593.801904183220613,113*
992316-686.20130212303012203,539*
2215-886.70110212313012203,024*
982216-775.40716253619506,519*
972217-661.250317362810106,077*
962117-742.830110293616405,780*
952118-628.11052137278105,298*
942018-715.210212333415304,728*
932019-68.91182438226104,079*
921919-73.4000316353211203,404*
911920-61.3019283719402,914*
901820-70.614233529812,272*
891821-60.20021334351421,741*
881721-7Out1626392441,361*
871722-6Out04184032601,053*
861622-7Out113343914721*
851623-6Out0172844181522*
841624-5Out41844322364*
831524-6Out31243356238*
821424-7Out838495177*
811425-6Out44048794*
801325-7Out22267958*
791326-6Out17582536*
781226-7Out15404520*
771227-6Out6751916*
761228-5Out67333*
751027-8Out2525504*
47-74Out10011*
Total:64.9%2516359121312974210100,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Lottery seed
Red Wings 3 Blues 4 +1.2
Red Wings 4 Oilers 6 +1.2
Red Wings 3 Blackhawks 4 +1.1
Capitals 5 Red Wings 1 +1.1
Coyotes 4 Red Wings 2 +1.1
Lightning 1 Red Wings 0 +1.1
Red Wings 1 Flames 2 +1.1
Sabres 8 Red Wings 3 +1.1
Penguins 3 Red Wings 1 +1.1
Oilers 4 Red Wings 1 +1.1
Red Wings 3 Sharks 6 +1.1
Wild 5 Red Wings 1 +1.1
Red Wings 1 Canadiens 3 +1.1
Rangers 2 Red Wings 1 +1.0
Canadiens 3 Red Wings 0 +1.0
Red Wings 3 Blues 2 -0.9
Flames 2 Red Wings 3 -0.9
Coyotes 3 Red Wings 4 (ot)-0.9
Red Wings 5 Predators 2 -0.9
Red Wings 3 Predators 1 -0.9
Predators 2 Red Wings 6 -0.9
Red Wings 3 Avalanche 2 -0.9
Red Wings 5 Flyers 1 -0.9
Islanders 4 Red Wings 5 -0.9
Red Wings 4 Coyotes 3 -0.8
Bruins 3 Red Wings 4 -0.8
Red Wings 3 Rangers 2 -0.8
Red Wings 4 Blue Jackets 3 -0.8
Red Wings 3 Canucks 2 (ot)-0.8
Stars 2 Red Wings 3 (ot)-0.8
Red Wings 5 Thrashers 0 -0.8
Red Wings 6 Islanders 1 -0.8
Avalanche 3 Red Wings 4 -0.8
Kings 1 Red Wings 3 -0.8
Red Wings 6 Penguins 5 (so)-0.7
Red Wings 3 Coyotes 2 (so)-0.7
Canadiens 6 Penguins 5 (so)*+0.4
Coyotes 4 Penguins 5 (ot)*+0.3
Oilers 5 Red Wings 4 (so)*+0.3
Hurricanes 4 Sabres 3 (so)*-0.3
Predators 4 Red Wings 3 (so)*+0.3
Stars 5 Blackhawks 6 (so)*+0.3
Lightning 3 Flames 4 (so)*-0.2
Maple Leafs 5 Blues 6 (so)+0.2
Canadiens 4 Coyotes 3 (so)*-0.2
Blues 2 Bruins 3 (so)*-0.2
Avalanche 3 Bruins 2 (so)+0.2
Kings 3 Blues 4 (so)*-0.2
Bruins 5 Blues 4 (so)*+0.2
Maple Leafs 4 Hurricanes 3 (so)+0.2
Canucks 4 Blue Jackets 5 (ot)+0.2
Canucks 5 Blues 4 (so)*-0.2
Flyers 4 Red Wings 3 (ot)*+0.1
Thrashers 4 Red Wings 3 (ot)+0.1
Canadiens 3 Blackhawks 0 -0.1
Blue Jackets 3 Panthers 1 *+0.1
Blackhawks 1 Sharks 2 (ot)*+0.1
Blue Jackets 5 Bruins 2 +0.1
Blues 2 Sharks 0 +0.0
Blues 1 Oilers 2 -0.0
Canucks 5 Maple Leafs 3 +0.0
Red Wings 3 Oilers 4 (so)*-0.0
Blackhawks 2 Capitals 5 -0.0
Penguins 4 Rangers 5 (ot)-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Blues vs Red Wings+1.2+0.3+0.4-0.7-0.8-1.0
Blues vs Red Wings+1.2+0.4+0.2-0.7-0.7-1.0
Blackhawks vs Red Wings+1.1*+0.1*+0.2-0.8-0.7-0.9
Red Wings vs Capitals-0.8-0.7-0.9+0.2*+0.1+1.0
Red Wings vs Blackhawks-0.8-0.8-0.7*+0.1+0.2+1.1
Red Wings vs Blue Jackets-0.9-0.7-0.7*+0.1*+0.2+1.1
Red Wings vs Flames-0.7-0.8-0.8*+0.1*+0.2+1.0
Blue Jackets vs Red Wings+1.0+0.3*+0.3-0.8-0.7-0.8
Blue Jackets vs Red Wings+1.0*+0.2*+0.3-0.8-0.6-0.8
Red Wings vs Stars-0.8-0.7-0.7*+0.2+0.2+1.0
Stars vs Red Wings+1.0+0.2*+0.3-0.8-0.8-0.8
Blackhawks vs Red Wings+1.0*+0.2+0.3-0.8-0.7-0.8
Canucks vs Red Wings+1.0*+0.2*+0.1-0.7-0.8-0.8
Sharks vs Red Wings+1.0*+0.2*+0.1-0.8-0.7-0.8
Red Wings vs Stars-0.8-0.7-0.8*+0.1+0.2+1.0
Red Wings vs Sabres-0.7-0.8-0.7*+0.1*+0.1+1.0
Ducks vs Red Wings+1.0+0.3+0.2-0.6-0.7-0.8
Sharks vs Red Wings+1.0*+0.2*+0.1-0.8-0.7-0.8
Red Wings vs Kings-0.8-0.6-0.7*-0.0+0.1+1.0
Red Wings vs Lightning-0.8-0.8-0.7*+0.1*+0.1+1.0
Red Wings vs Avalanche-0.7-0.8-0.8*+0.3*+0.1+1.0
Red Wings vs Sharks-0.8-0.7-0.8*+0.2*+0.1+1.0
Ducks vs Red Wings+1.0+0.3*+0.2-0.6-0.8-0.8
Red Wings vs Ducks-0.8-0.7-0.7*+0.2*+0.2+1.0
Avalanche vs Red Wings+1.0*+0.1+0.1-0.8-0.7-0.8
Red Wings vs Wild-0.8-0.8-0.8*+0.1+0.2+1.0
Red Wings vs Senators-0.8-0.7-0.7*+0.1*+0.1+1.0
Red Wings vs Kings-0.8-0.6-0.7*+0.1*+0.1+1.0
Flames vs Red Wings+1.0*+0.1+0.1-0.8-0.7-0.7
Panthers vs Red Wings+1.0*+0.2*+0.0-0.8-0.7-0.7
Red Wings vs Wild-0.8-0.7-0.5*+0.0*+0.2+1.0
Wild vs Red Wings+1.0+0.1+0.2-0.8-0.7-0.7
Red Wings vs Hurricanes-0.8-0.7-0.6+0.1+0.2+1.0
Red Wings vs Maple Leafs-0.7-0.7-0.8*+0.1*+0.2+0.9
Red Wings vs Ducks-0.8-0.7-0.7*+0.3*+0.1+1.0
Red Wings vs Bruins-0.7-0.7-0.6*+0.1*+0.2+1.0
Senators vs Red Wings+1.0*+0.1*+0.2-0.7-0.7-0.7
Red Wings vs Panthers-0.7-0.7-0.7*-0.0+0.2+1.0
Canucks vs Red Wings+0.9*+0.1*+0.3-0.7-0.6-0.7
Devils vs Red Wings+1.0+0.1*+0.0-0.7-0.7-0.7
Hurricanes vs Red Wings+1.0*+0.1*+0.2-0.7-0.7-0.7
Kings vs Red Wings+1.0*+0.1*+0.1-0.7-0.7-0.7
Red Wings vs Devils-0.7-0.7-0.5*+0.2+0.1+0.9
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings+1.0*+0.1*+0.1-0.7-0.7-0.7
Red Wings vs Canucks-0.7-0.7-0.7*+0.2+0.2+0.9

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
137450-0100
125385-2100
122344-7100
121367-26040
120357-3632513
119347-450464
118337-5503813
117338-4325711
116328-52950201
115318-6205716421
114319-51048278330
113309-64442714640
1123010-51362618110510
1112910-61252029151621
1102911-5016153120284300
1092811-601183226485401
1082812-504531308676120
1072712-6222530124910240
1062612-7111627203101056010
1052613-60011212219119111300
1042513-70061428077121547010
1032514-60492604413158131300
1022414-702524022111213183701
1012415-61320010871719812120
1002315-701170043151715183610
992316-60012002111112022811200
982216-7007106520201717610
972217-6050321514222113410
962117-730109722222111300
952118-6100053191625218200
942018-7100211210232816610
932019-61107416292413410
921919-70000319233022920
911920-6010313272820610
901820-710161728281451
891821-60000292329231020
881721-7151427281861
871722-6291929261321
861622-7031323312271
851623-6024183526104
841624-51210213224100
831524-605183128161
821424-7382537243
811425-62195018101
801325-7210344572
791326-636254225
781226-751520555
771227-664425196
761228-56733
751027-8502525
73-74100
47-70100
Total:0214610122345667676654321100000