How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Canucks 1 Ducks 4 -5.5
-0.6
Flames 4 Canucks 3 -5.5
-0.6
Wild 4 Canucks 3 -5.4
-0.6
Wild 3 Canucks 0 -5.4
-0.6
Blues 3 Canucks 2 -5.4
-0.5
Canucks 0 Predators 1 -5.3
-0.5
Canucks 0 Kings 5 -5.2
-0.5
Canucks 2 Stars 5 -5.2
-0.5
Predators 7 Canucks 3 -5.2
-0.6
Ducks 6 Canucks 2 -5.2
-0.5
Blackhawks 1 Canucks 0 -5.1
-0.5
Canucks 1 Canadiens 6 -5.0
-0.5
Canucks 2 Penguins 3 -5.0
-0.5
Bruins 5 Canucks 4 -4.9
-0.5
Canucks 3 Lightning 6 -4.9
-0.5
Sabres 5 Canucks 2 -4.9
-0.5
Rangers 4 Canucks 2 -4.9
-0.5
Canucks 1 Flyers 5 -4.8
-0.5
Capitals 2 Canucks 1 -4.7
-0.5
Hurricanes 4 Canucks 1 -4.7
-0.5
Canucks 0 Bruins 4 -4.6
-0.5
Canucks 4 Kings 1 +4.3
+0.4
Predators 0 Canucks 4 +4.3
+0.4
Canucks 5 Blackhawks 3 +4.2
+0.4
Blackhawks 1 Canucks 3 +4.2
+0.4
Canucks 5 Predators 2 +4.0
+0.4
Flames 3 Canucks 4 +4.0
+0.4
Blue Jackets 1 Canucks 2 (ot)+4.0
+0.4
Sharks 1 Canucks 3 +4.0
+0.4
Penguins 1 Canucks 3 +3.9
+0.4
Canucks 4 Sabres 1 +3.8
+0.4
Canucks 4 Coyotes 2 +3.8
+0.4
Canucks 5 Maple Leafs 3 +3.8
+0.4
Thrashers 2 Canucks 5 +3.7
+0.4
Lightning 2 Canucks 3 +3.6
+0.4
Devils 2 Canucks 5 +3.6
+0.4
Senators 3 Canucks 4 +3.5
+0.4
Canucks 6 Hurricanes 5 +3.4
+0.4
Canucks 5 Blues 4 (so)+3.3
+0.4
Islanders 3 Canucks 2 (so)*-1.4
*-0.1
Red Wings 3 Oilers 4 (so)*-1.3
*-0.2
Ducks 4 Rangers 3 (ot)*-1.3
Red Wings 3 Canucks 2 (ot)*-1.1
*-0.1
Predators 3 Flyers 5 +1.1
Canucks 3 Rangers 4 (ot)*-0.9
*-0.1
Blue Jackets 5 Flyers 6 +0.9
Canucks 4 Blue Jackets 5 (ot)*-0.9
-0.1
Coyotes 4 Senators 6 +0.8
Canucks 2 Devils 3 (so)*-0.8
*-0.1
Red Wings 5 Thrashers 0 -0.8
Wild 3 Devils 1 -0.8
Islanders 2 Kings 3 *-0.7
Flames 3 Senators 2 *-0.7
Kings 8 Devils 1 *-0.7
Blackhawks 2 Capitals 5 *+0.5
+0.0
Flyers 6 Hurricanes 3 *-0.4
Lightning 6 Bruins 2 *-0.3
Avalanche 4 Islanders 0 *-0.3
Flyers 4 Panthers 1 *-0.3
Kings 5 Thrashers 4 (ot)*+0.3
Maple Leafs 4 Canucks 3 (ot)*-0.2
*-0.0
Wild 3 Stars 2 *-0.2
Capitals 2 Wild 3 (so)*-0.1
Blues 4 Coyotes 3 *+0.1
Senators 1 Wild 4 *-0.0
Flames 2 Red Wings 3 +0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Canucks vs Sharks+3.0+2.8+1.7-1.4*-0.7-3.8
+0.3+0.3+0.2*-0.1-0.1-0.4
Canucks vs Blue Jackets+3.0+2.6+2.3*-1.1-1.0-3.7
+0.3+0.3+0.2*-0.1-0.1-0.4
Canucks vs Red Wings+3.0+2.8+2.6*-0.9-1.5-3.7
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1-0.1-0.4
Red Wings vs Canucks-3.6-0.9-1.7+2.5+2.3+3.1
-0.4*-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Canucks vs Red Wings+2.9+2.8+2.5*-1.2*-0.8-3.7
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Canucks vs Blackhawks+3.0+2.4+2.6-1.4-0.9-3.6
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1-0.1-0.4
Canucks vs Sharks+2.9+2.6+2.6*-1.3-1.0-3.6
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Canucks vs Flames+3.1+2.0+1.7*-1.2-1.1-3.4
+0.4+0.2+0.2*-0.1-0.1-0.4
Oilers vs Canucks-3.5-1.1*-0.4+2.6+2.1+3.0
-0.4*-0.1*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.3
Canucks vs Wild+2.4+2.3+3.2*-0.1*-0.6-3.3
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.0-0.1-0.4
Stars vs Canucks-3.5-0.9*-1.1+2.3+2.4+2.9
-0.4*-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Canucks vs Senators+2.2+2.2+3.3*-0.6*-0.4-3.1
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Coyotes vs Canucks-3.5-1.3*-1.0+2.3+2.7+2.9
-0.4-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Sharks vs Canucks-3.6*-0.5*-1.0+2.5+2.4+2.8
-0.4*-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Canucks vs Blues+2.8+2.4+2.6*-0.6-1.1-3.5
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.0-0.1-0.4
Canucks vs Oilers+2.8+2.7+2.8*-1.3-1.1-3.4
+0.3+0.3+0.3-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Avalanche vs Canucks-3.0*-0.5*-0.4+3.3+1.8+2.2
-0.4-0.1*-0.0+0.4+0.2+0.3
Canucks vs Avalanche+2.6+2.2+2.9*-0.5-0.9-3.3
+0.3+0.3+0.3-0.0-0.1-0.4
Canucks vs Flames+2.7+2.8+2.5*-1.3-1.2-3.4
+0.3+0.3+0.3-0.1-0.1-0.4
Canucks vs Stars+2.7+2.5+2.3*-0.7-1.0-3.4
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1-0.1-0.4
Canucks vs Oilers+2.7+2.7+2.6-1.5-0.8-3.4
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Canadiens vs Canucks-3.2*-0.6*+0.3+2.9+2.5+2.2
-0.4*-0.1*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Canucks vs Ducks+2.4+2.8+1.9*-0.6*-0.4-3.3
+0.3+0.3+0.2*-0.1*-0.0-0.4
Blue Jackets vs Canucks-3.4-0.9*-1.1+2.5+2.4+2.7
-0.4*-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Canucks vs Avalanche+2.5+2.0+2.9*-1.0*-0.6-3.2
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Ducks vs Canucks-3.3*-0.4*-0.2+2.6+2.8+2.3
-0.4*-0.0*+0.0+0.2+0.3+0.3
Oilers vs Canucks-3.3*-0.6-1.9+2.8+2.3+2.6
-0.4-0.1*-0.2+0.3+0.3+0.3
Stars vs Canucks-3.3-1.2*-0.7+1.9+2.5+2.7
-0.4*-0.1*-0.1+0.2+0.3+0.3
Blues vs Canucks-3.3-1.0*-0.9+1.8+2.6+2.7
-0.4*-0.1*-0.1+0.2+0.3+0.3
Canucks vs Islanders+2.6+1.9+2.8*-0.3*-0.7-3.2
+0.3+0.3+0.3-0.0*-0.1-0.4
Canucks vs Coyotes+2.6+2.3+1.9*-0.3*-0.4-3.4
+0.3+0.3+0.3-0.1-0.1-0.4
Kings vs Canucks-3.3*-0.6*-0.5+2.6+2.3+2.5
-0.4*-0.1*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Canucks vs Wild+2.6+2.5+2.6-1.4-1.3-3.2
+0.3+0.3+0.2*-0.1-0.1-0.4
Canucks vs Thrashers+2.5+2.6+2.2*-0.8*-0.7-3.2
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.0*-0.1-0.4
Avalanche vs Canucks-3.0-1.0*-0.9+2.8+1.9+2.5
-0.4-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Kings vs Canucks-3.2*-0.5*-0.8+2.2+2.2+2.5
-0.4*-0.0*-0.1+0.2+0.3+0.3
Coyotes vs Canucks-3.3*-0.2*-0.8+2.1+2.2+2.5
-0.4-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Flyers vs Canucks-3.2-1.1*-0.1+2.4+2.5+2.5
-0.4*-0.1-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Panthers vs Canucks-3.1*-0.8*-1.2+2.2+2.5+2.4
-0.4-0.1-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Canucks vs Panthers+2.5+2.2+2.0*-1.3*-0.7-3.0
+0.3+0.2+0.3*-0.1*-0.0-0.4
Canucks vs Capitals+2.4+2.0+1.8*-0.8*-0.3-3.0
+0.3+0.2+0.3*-0.1*-0.1-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Canucks finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
116-124In1009*
112334-4In1001
111324-5In2550254*
110314-6In50338812*
109315-5In22282817618*
108305-6In92353623522*
107306-5In123103030469*
106307-4In317131538131188*
105297-5In16151832155137*
104298-4In61210333181261*
103288-599.7%28727371530365*
102278-699.017218392581627*
101279-597.10511231321630899*
100269-691.60304253425811,236*
992610-582.50202123334153001,724*
982510-669.4010162337237102,235*
972511-551.4000314333114302,872*
962411-634.0000172636227103,475*
952412-519.7000316343113204,123*
942312-69.70018263622604,963*
932313-54.200418353111105,668*
922213-61.30110273819403,498*
2314-41.1111293718302,564*
912214-50.4005223728706,684*
902114-60.1021334361413,967*
2215-40.1021434351312,805*
892014-70.0018274021306,730*
882015-6Out04204130503,916*
1914-8Out04193832702,799*
871915-7Out011237391103,555*
2016-5Out011339361002,805*
861916-6Out01730451715,792*
851917-5Out0423462615,144*
841817-6Out0215473334,549*
831717-7Out19424253,864*
821718-6Out006364993,208*
811719-5Out033053142,442*
801619-6Out022355211,878*
791519-7Out11656271,521*
781520-6Out01055351,123*
771521-5Out085042776*
761421-6Out44056532*
751422-5Out23563388*
741322-6Out12970282*
731323-5Out12178156*
721223-6Out148679*
711224-5Out168457*
701124-6Out128833*
691125-5Out59521*
42-68Out10024*
Total:10.9%00001235811151819134100,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Lottery seed
Wild 4 Canucks 3 +1.2
Flames 4 Canucks 3 +1.2
Wild 3 Canucks 0 +1.1
Canucks 1 Ducks 4 +1.1
Predators 7 Canucks 3 +1.1
Canucks 0 Predators 1 +1.1
Blues 3 Canucks 2 +1.1
Canucks 2 Stars 5 +1.1
Bruins 5 Canucks 4 +1.1
Canucks 2 Penguins 3 +1.1
Ducks 6 Canucks 2 +1.1
Sabres 5 Canucks 2 +1.1
Canucks 3 Lightning 6 +1.1
Canucks 1 Canadiens 6 +1.1
Canucks 0 Kings 5 +1.1
Canucks 1 Flyers 5 +1.1
Canucks 0 Bruins 4 +1.0
Rangers 4 Canucks 2 +1.0
Hurricanes 4 Canucks 1 +1.0
Capitals 2 Canucks 1 +1.0
Blackhawks 1 Canucks 0 +1.0
Flames 3 Canucks 4 -0.9
Canucks 4 Kings 1 -0.9
Canucks 4 Sabres 1 -0.9
Blackhawks 1 Canucks 3 -0.9
Predators 0 Canucks 4 -0.9
Canucks 5 Predators 2 -0.8
Sharks 1 Canucks 3 -0.8
Canucks 5 Blackhawks 3 -0.8
Thrashers 2 Canucks 5 -0.8
Blue Jackets 1 Canucks 2 (ot)-0.8
Penguins 1 Canucks 3 -0.8
Canucks 5 Maple Leafs 3 -0.8
Canucks 4 Coyotes 2 -0.8
Senators 3 Canucks 4 -0.8
Lightning 2 Canucks 3 -0.8
Devils 2 Canucks 5 -0.8
Canucks 6 Hurricanes 5 -0.7
Canucks 5 Blues 4 (so)-0.7
Red Wings 3 Oilers 4 (so)*+0.3
Stars 1 Capitals 2 (so)*+0.3
Rangers 3 Flames 2 (so)*-0.3
Flyers 5 Bruins 6 (so)-0.3
Blue Jackets 5 Islanders 4 (so)*+0.3
Hurricanes 4 Sabres 3 (so)*+0.3
Islanders 3 Canucks 2 (so)*+0.2
Canucks 4 Blue Jackets 5 (ot)*+0.2
Canucks 3 Rangers 4 (ot)*+0.2
Kings 3 Blues 4 (so)*+0.2
Canucks 2 Devils 3 (so)+0.2
Blackhawks 1 Sharks 2 (ot)-0.2
Bruins 3 Predators 4 (so)+0.2
Capitals 4 Coyotes 5 (ot)*-0.2
Sabres 2 Blackhawks 3 (so)*+0.2
Blues 2 Bruins 3 (so)*+0.2
Avalanche 3 Bruins 2 (so)*-0.2
Lightning 3 Flames 4 (so)*+0.2
Red Wings 3 Canucks 2 (ot)*+0.1
Oilers 5 Red Wings 4 (so)*-0.1
Maple Leafs 4 Canucks 3 (ot)*+0.1
Devils 2 Flames 4 *+0.0
Blues 4 Senators 1 *-0.0
Oilers 5 Panthers 3 +0.0
Capitals 2 Wild 3 (so)*+0.0
Wild 3 Stars 2 +0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Avalanche vs Canucks+0.7*+0.1*+0.1-0.7-0.5-0.5
Coyotes vs Canucks+0.8*+0.2*+0.1-0.5-0.6-0.6
Canucks vs Flames-0.6-0.5-0.5+0.2*+0.1+0.8
Canucks vs Blue Jackets-0.6-0.5-0.5*+0.2*+0.1+0.8
Canucks vs Blackhawks-0.6-0.5-0.5*+0.2*+0.2+0.7
Coyotes vs Canucks+0.8*+0.1*+0.1-0.5-0.5-0.6
Oilers vs Canucks+0.7*+0.1+0.3-0.6-0.5-0.5
Oilers vs Canucks+0.7*+0.2*+0.1-0.5-0.5-0.6
Canucks vs Sharks-0.6-0.6-0.4*+0.1+0.1+0.8
Canucks vs Red Wings-0.6-0.6-0.5+0.2*+0.1+0.7
Canucks vs Coyotes-0.6-0.5-0.5+0.1+0.1+0.7
Panthers vs Canucks+0.7+0.2*+0.2-0.6-0.6-0.6
Sharks vs Canucks+0.7*+0.1*+0.1-0.6-0.5-0.5
Canucks vs Senators-0.5-0.6-0.6*+0.1*+0.1+0.7
Canucks vs Sharks-0.6-0.6-0.5*+0.2*+0.1+0.7
Canucks vs Oilers-0.6-0.5-0.6*+0.2*+0.1+0.7
Canucks vs Wild-0.5-0.5-0.6*+0.1*+0.1+0.7
Canucks vs Oilers-0.6-0.5-0.6*+0.2*+0.2+0.7
Flyers vs Canucks+0.7+0.1*+0.1-0.6-0.5-0.5
Canucks vs Panthers-0.6-0.5-0.5*+0.2+0.1+0.7
Canucks vs Flames-0.6-0.5-0.5*+0.2+0.2+0.7
Canucks vs Stars-0.5-0.6-0.5*+0.2+0.1+0.7
Stars vs Canucks+0.7*+0.1*+0.1-0.5-0.5-0.6
Canucks vs Avalanche-0.6-0.5-0.5*+0.2*+0.1+0.7
Canucks vs Red Wings-0.5-0.6-0.5*+0.1*+0.2+0.7
Blue Jackets vs Canucks+0.7*+0.1*+0.2-0.5-0.5-0.5
Canucks vs Islanders-0.5-0.5-0.6*+0.1*+0.1+0.7
Red Wings vs Canucks+0.7+0.1*+0.1-0.5-0.5-0.6
Canucks vs Ducks-0.5-0.5-0.4+0.1*+0.1+0.7
Avalanche vs Canucks+0.7*+0.1*+0.1-0.5-0.5-0.5
Canucks vs Thrashers-0.5-0.5-0.5+0.1+0.1+0.7
Kings vs Canucks+0.7+0.2*+0.1-0.5-0.5-0.5
Canucks vs Wild-0.6-0.5-0.4*+0.2+0.2+0.7
Canucks vs Blues-0.5-0.5-0.5*+0.0+0.2+0.7
Canucks vs Avalanche-0.5-0.5-0.5*+0.1*+0.2+0.7
Stars vs Canucks+0.7*+0.1*+0.1-0.5-0.5-0.6

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
124410-0100
116363-2100
112334-4100
111324-525252525
110314-65082588
109315-5221117226176
108305-69914514231855
107306-5123106252564
106307-431776213261111111
105297-51156911612201235
104298-4639010112125581
103288-522677202512132300
102278-611622161920224801
101279-501411111022201214230
100269-6002004322171722371
992610-500202110112225914300
982510-600101066182216199200
972511-50000321312212417610
962411-6000107620232514410
952412-50000321415282311300
942312-6001088223020820
932313-500043142629176100
922213-60011719292613410
912214-50002102331229200
902114-6001415272917610
892014-7002719302712300
882015-601311253122710
1914-800312223023810
871915-7001516312814400
861916-60210233324710
851917-501416303015300
841817-6002924342371
831717-7141534301320
821718-6021027342251
811719-505203630810
801619-6021232341630
791519-701725362550
781520-603173732101
771521-502133235172
761421-662241274
751422-521839339
741322-6012363913
731323-54374217
721223-68343820
711224-54215125
701124-636433
691125-5142957
681025-63070
671026-52575
42-66100
Total:000000000001122345789101110975210