How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Red Wings 3 Avalanche 2 -5.8
-0.6
Avalanche 2 Kings 6 -5.6
-0.6
Coyotes 6 Avalanche 2 -5.6
-0.6
Blackhawks 7 Avalanche 3 -5.5
-0.6
Ducks 4 Avalanche 1 -5.5
-0.6
Wild 5 Avalanche 3 -5.5
-0.6
Avalanche 0 Blackhawks 2 -5.4
-0.5
Avalanche 3 Red Wings 4 -5.3
-0.5
Canadiens 6 Avalanche 2 -5.3
-0.5
Avalanche 1 Kings 2 -5.3
-0.5
Avalanche 3 Capitals 4 -5.3
-0.5
Coyotes 3 Avalanche 2 -5.3
-0.6
Sharks 5 Avalanche 0 -5.2
-0.5
Blue Jackets 5 Avalanche 3 -5.2
-0.5
Ducks 3 Avalanche 1 -5.2
-0.5
Senators 5 Avalanche 4 -5.1
-0.5
Sabres 4 Avalanche 0 -5.1
-0.5
Lightning 3 Avalanche 1 -5.0
-0.5
Avalanche 4 Senators 7 -5.0
-0.5
Avalanche 3 Coyotes 5 -5.0
-0.5
Avalanche 1 Sharks 4 -5.0
-0.5
Penguins 3 Avalanche 2 -4.9
-0.5
Avalanche 1 Thrashers 3 -4.9
-0.5
Avalanche 1 Stars 4 -4.8
-0.5
Avalanche 3 Canadiens 4 -4.8
-0.5
Blue Jackets 3 Avalanche 5 +4.7
+0.5
Avalanche 3 Bruins 2 (so)+4.5
+0.4
Avalanche 5 Panthers 4 +4.2
+0.4
Avalanche 2 Blues 1 +4.0
+0.4
Hurricanes 1 Avalanche 3 +3.9
+0.4
Bruins 2 Avalanche 4 +3.9
+0.4
Avalanche 4 Islanders 0 +3.7
+0.4
Avalanche 5 Ducks 4 (ot)+3.6
+0.4
Avalanche 6 Sabres 2 +3.4
+0.4
Maple Leafs 4 Hurricanes 3 (so)*-1.9
Kings 4 Avalanche 3 (ot)*-1.3
-0.2
Avalanche 2 Devils 3 (ot)*-1.3
*-0.1
Avalanche 3 Blue Jackets 4 (so)*-1.1
*-0.1
Blackhawks 3 Maple Leafs 4 +1.1
Canucks 2 Penguins 3 +0.8
Penguins 2 Panthers 0 -0.8
Avalanche 1 Rangers 2 (so)*+0.8
*+0.1
Panthers 2 Flames 1 +0.8
+0.1
Flames 3 Sabres 5 +0.8
Rangers 5 Wild 3 *+0.7
Canucks 6 Hurricanes 5 *-0.7
Kings 4 Canadiens 3 *-0.6
Coyotes 5 Hurricanes 4 *-0.5
Canadiens 3 Hurricanes 2 *+0.4
Sharks 1 Thrashers 2 *+0.4
Blue Jackets 5 Flyers 6 *+0.4
Maple Leafs 4 Canucks 3 (ot)*-0.4
*-0.0
Red Wings 3 Sharks 6 *+0.3
Blackhawks 8 Wild 7 (so)*+0.3
Canucks 4 Sabres 1 *-0.2
*-0.0
Blues 3 Stars 6 *+0.2
Capitals 2 Wild 3 (so)*-0.2
Oilers 4 Maple Leafs 5 +0.1
Wild 3 Capitals 2 *-0.1
Blackhawks 4 Senators 2 -0.1
Sharks 4 Flames 3 +0.0
Wild 3 Stars 4 +0.0
Penguins 3 Coyotes 1 *+0.0
Islanders 2 Kings 3 *-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Predators vs Avalanche-0.1*-0.0*-0.0+0.2*-0.0+0.1
-0.1-0.0-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1
Islanders vs Avalanche-0.0*-0.0*Out+0.1+0.1*+0.0
-0.1*-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Avalanche vs Blues+0.1*+0.0*+0.0*+0.1*-0.0-0.1
+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0-0.0-0.1
Devils vs Avalanche-0.1*-0.0*-0.1*+0.1*-0.0+0.1
-0.1*-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Blues vs Avalanche-0.1*-0.0*-0.0*-0.0*+0.0+0.1
-0.1*-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Red Wings vs Avalanche-0.1-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Avalanche vs Predators+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0-0.1-0.1
Avalanche vs Predators+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.0-0.1
Avalanche vs Penguins+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0-0.0-0.1
Canucks vs Avalanche-0.1*-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Stars vs Avalanche-0.1*-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Avalanche vs Hurricanes+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Oilers vs Avalanche-0.1-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Avalanche vs Maple Leafs+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0*-0.0-0.1
Avalanche vs Blue Jackets+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0*-0.0-0.1
Flyers vs Avalanche-0.1*-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Flames vs Avalanche-0.1*-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Avalanche vs Sharks+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0*-0.0-0.1
Capitals vs Avalanche-0.1*-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Avalanche vs Canucks+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Avalanche vs Coyotes+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0*-0.0-0.1
Avalanche vs Flames+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0-0.0-0.1
Avalanche vs Oilers+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0-0.0-0.1
Blackhawks vs Avalanche-0.1-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Flames vs Avalanche-0.1*-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Kings vs Avalanche-0.1*-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Panthers vs Avalanche-0.1*-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Predators vs Avalanche-0.1-0.0-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1
Canucks vs Avalanche-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Avalanche vs Canucks+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0*-0.0-0.1
Rangers vs Avalanche-0.1*-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Sharks vs Avalanche-0.1*-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Avalanche vs Oilers+0.1+0.1*+0.0*-0.0*-0.0-0.1
Avalanche vs Flames+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Avalanche vs Stars+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Thrashers vs Avalanche-0.1-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Stars vs Avalanche-0.1*-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Avalanche finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
116470-0In1008
102396-2In1001
101375-5In1001
100376-4In50502*
99355-7In2525504*
98356-675.0%3838258*
97346-750.0133838138*
96358-421.93194428632*
95348-524.632131301561*
94338-68.91263626209190*
93339-58.318133232131145*
92329-61.72725382170242*
91319-70.303183729121346*
903110-60.201103036194484*
893010-70.100522372781746*
883011-6Out21332361521,067*
872911-7Out1825392341,392*
862912-6Out0318383281,812*
852812-7Out001113241142,366*
842813-6Out0162646222,965*
832713-7Out041948293,493*
822714-6Out021445404,042*
812614-7Out01841504,818*
802615-6Out0536595,302*
792515-7Out0328683,314*
2616-5Out329682,559*
782516-6Out223763,744*
2314-10Out124752,454*
772416-7Out119803,575*
2315-9Out0118812,760*
762417-6Out012873,847*
2215-10Out014862,605*
752317-7Out09913,891*
2418-5Out09912,370*
742318-6Out7933,139*
2217-8Out06942,625*
732218-7Out4963,095*
2117-9Out4962,402*
722118-8Out3972,782*
2219-6Out03972,303*
712119-7Out2984,540*
702019-8Out1993,961*
692020-7Out1993,311*
682021-6Out01002,794*
671921-7Out01002,192*
661922-6Out01001,668*
651822-7Out01001,349*
641722-8Out1001,015*
631723-7Out0100756*
22-62Out1001,514*
Total:0.1%000000001261773100,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Lottery seed
Red Wings 3 Avalanche 2 +1.2
Coyotes 6 Avalanche 2 +1.2
Avalanche 2 Kings 6 +1.1
Wild 5 Avalanche 3 +1.1
Coyotes 3 Avalanche 2 +1.1
Ducks 4 Avalanche 1 +1.1
Canadiens 6 Avalanche 2 +1.1
Blackhawks 7 Avalanche 3 +1.1
Avalanche 3 Red Wings 4 +1.1
Senators 5 Avalanche 4 +1.1
Avalanche 0 Blackhawks 2 +1.1
Avalanche 1 Kings 2 +1.1
Avalanche 3 Capitals 4 +1.1
Sabres 4 Avalanche 0 +1.1
Sharks 5 Avalanche 0 +1.1
Ducks 3 Avalanche 1 +1.1
Avalanche 1 Thrashers 3 +1.1
Avalanche 3 Coyotes 5 +1.1
Avalanche 4 Senators 7 +1.1
Lightning 3 Avalanche 1 +1.1
Penguins 3 Avalanche 2 +1.0
Blue Jackets 5 Avalanche 3 +1.0
Avalanche 3 Canadiens 4 +1.0
Avalanche 1 Sharks 4 +1.0
Avalanche 1 Stars 4 +1.0
Blue Jackets 3 Avalanche 5 -0.9
Bruins 2 Avalanche 4 -0.9
Avalanche 5 Panthers 4 -0.9
Hurricanes 1 Avalanche 3 -0.9
Avalanche 3 Bruins 2 (so)-0.8
Avalanche 2 Blues 1 -0.8
Avalanche 5 Ducks 4 (ot)-0.8
Avalanche 4 Islanders 0 -0.8
Avalanche 6 Sabres 2 -0.8
Kings 4 Avalanche 3 (ot)+0.3
Capitals 2 Wild 3 (so)*+0.3
Avalanche 2 Devils 3 (ot)*+0.3
Canadiens 4 Coyotes 3 (so)*+0.2
Canadiens 6 Penguins 5 (so)*-0.2
Flames 2 Penguins 1 (ot)*+0.2
Avalanche 3 Blue Jackets 4 (so)+0.2
Wild 3 Blues 2 (ot)+0.2
Hurricanes 5 Ducks 4 (so)*+0.2
Avalanche 1 Rangers 2 (so)*-0.1
Panthers 2 Flames 1 -0.1
Blackhawks 4 Senators 2 +0.1
Stars 2 Flames 3 (so)-0.1
Sharks 4 Flames 3 -0.1
Rangers 3 Flames 2 (so)*-0.1
Stars 4 Flyers 3 (ot)+0.1
Kings 1 Red Wings 3 -0.0
Wild 0 Coyotes 3 -0.0
Flames 2 Capitals 3 -0.0
Oilers 5 Panthers 3 *+0.0
Red Wings 1 Canadiens 3 *+0.0
Wild 3 Islanders 2 *+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Devils vs Avalanche+0.4+0.1+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.3
Avalanche vs Maple Leafs-0.3-0.2-0.2*+0.1+0.1+0.4
Islanders vs Avalanche+0.4*+0.0*+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.3
Panthers vs Avalanche+0.3*+0.1+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.3
Maple Leafs vs Avalanche+0.3*+0.1+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.3
Rangers vs Avalanche+0.3*+0.1*+0.1-0.3-0.2-0.2
Predators vs Avalanche+0.3*+0.1*+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.3
Predators vs Avalanche+0.3*+0.1*+0.1-0.3-0.2-0.3
Avalanche vs Predators-0.3-0.2-0.2*+0.1*+0.1+0.3
Canucks vs Avalanche+0.3*+0.1*+0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3
Canucks vs Avalanche+0.3*+0.0+0.1-0.2-0.3-0.2
Avalanche vs Predators-0.3-0.2-0.2+0.0+0.1+0.3
Avalanche vs Coyotes-0.2-0.2-0.2*+0.0+0.0+0.3
Avalanche vs Canucks-0.3-0.2-0.2+0.1*+0.1+0.3
Flames vs Avalanche+0.3*+0.0*+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2
Avalanche vs Blues-0.2-0.2-0.3*+0.0+0.1+0.3
Kings vs Avalanche+0.3*+0.0+0.1-0.2-0.3-0.2
Avalanche vs Red Wings-0.2-0.3-0.2+0.1*+0.1+0.3
Avalanche vs Penguins-0.2-0.2-0.3*+0.0*+0.1+0.3
Avalanche vs Stars-0.2-0.2-0.3+0.0*+0.0+0.3
Avalanche vs Hurricanes-0.3-0.2-0.2+0.1*+0.1+0.3
Avalanche vs Oilers-0.2-0.2-0.1*+0.0*+0.0+0.3
Avalanche vs Canucks-0.2-0.2-0.2*+0.1*+0.1+0.3
Stars vs Avalanche+0.3*+0.0*+0.1-0.2-0.3-0.2
Avalanche vs Flames-0.2-0.2-0.2*+0.1*+0.1+0.3
Sharks vs Avalanche+0.3*+0.0+0.0-0.2-0.2-0.2
Avalanche vs Blue Jackets-0.2-0.2-0.2*+0.1*+0.1+0.3
Flames vs Avalanche+0.3*+0.1*+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2
Red Wings vs Avalanche+0.3+0.1*+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2
Avalanche vs Flames-0.2-0.2-0.2+0.1*+0.1+0.3
Avalanche vs Oilers-0.2-0.2-0.2+0.0+0.1+0.3
Oilers vs Avalanche+0.3*+0.0*-0.0-0.2-0.2-0.2
Capitals vs Avalanche+0.3*+0.1*+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2
Blackhawks vs Avalanche+0.3*+0.1*+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2
Blues vs Avalanche+0.3*+0.1*+0.0-0.2-0.2-0.2
Oilers vs Avalanche+0.3+0.1*+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2
Thrashers vs Avalanche+0.3+0.1*+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2
Avalanche vs Wild-0.2-0.2-0.2*+0.1*+0.0+0.3
Avalanche vs Wild-0.2-0.2-0.2+0.0+0.1+0.3
Flyers vs Avalanche+0.3*+0.0+0.0-0.2-0.2-0.2
Avalanche vs Sharks-0.2-0.2-0.2*+0.1*+0.0+0.3
Avalanche vs Lightning-0.2-0.2-0.2*+0.1*+0.1+0.3
Stars vs Avalanche+0.3+0.1*+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2
Avalanche vs Flyers-0.2-0.2-0.2*+0.1*+0.0+0.3
Wild vs Avalanche+0.3*+0.0+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
116470-03863
102396-2100
101375-5100
100376-45050
99355-7252550
98356-6383825
97346-713382525
96358-433163422193
95348-5371513312372
94338-611161230231483
93339-518511232416121
92329-62152226251551
91319-700310202925941
903110-601412242920810
893010-7001518252916410
883011-602922272412400
872911-70415262917610
862912-60171928281430
852812-700211243122820
842813-60151728311530
832713-702924352261
822714-60151733301210
812614-7021128362030
802615-601620382960
792515-702143537111
782516-60182944162
2415-8182943181
772416-70042345243
762417-6021544337
2316-821544336
752317-70110404010
742318-6005344416
732218-703274822
722118-802194930
712119-71134838
702019-80104347
692020-7063856
682021-6043264
671921-7032771
661922-612178
651822-7011584
641722-801288
631723-70891
621724-60694
611624-7694
601625-6397
591525-7397
581425-8298
571426-7298
22-56100
Total:000000000000011235914222319