How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Oilers 1 Sharks 5 -5.5
-0.5
Oilers 2 Blue Jackets 5 -5.5
-0.6
Panthers 4 Oilers 2 -5.4
-0.5
Oilers 1 Ducks 6 -5.3
-0.5
Oilers 2 Senators 3 -5.3
-0.5
Flames 4 Oilers 3 -5.2
-0.5
Oilers 2 Kings 3 -5.2
-0.5
Thrashers 5 Oilers 3 -5.1
-0.5
Oilers 2 Canadiens 4 -5.1
-0.5
Oilers 2 Coyotes 4 -5.1
-0.5
Bruins 5 Oilers 1 -4.8
-0.5
Oilers 4 Maple Leafs 5 -4.8
-0.5
Oilers 7 Blackhawks 2 +4.3
+0.4
Oilers 4 Lightning 3 (so)+4.3
+0.4
Sharks 1 Oilers 4 +4.2
+0.4
Red Wings 4 Oilers 6 +4.2
+0.4
Blues 1 Oilers 2 +4.2
+0.4
Red Wings 3 Oilers 4 (so)+4.1
+0.4
Oilers 2 Blues 0 +4.1
+0.4
Oilers 4 Red Wings 1 +4.0
+0.4
Oilers 3 Stars 1 +4.0
+0.4
Lightning 0 Oilers 4 +4.0
+0.4
Flames 2 Oilers 4 +4.0
+0.4
Oilers 6 Predators 2 +4.0
+0.4
Oilers 5 Panthers 3 +3.8
+0.4
Sabres 0 Oilers 2 +3.7
+0.4
Devils 1 Oilers 3 +3.7
+0.4
Flyers 0 Oilers 5 +3.6
+0.4
Oilers 4 Thrashers 3 +3.6
+0.4
Oilers 4 Rangers 1 +3.5
+0.4
Oilers 3 Hurricanes 1 +3.5
+0.4
Oilers 3 Islanders 1 +3.4
+0.4
Hurricanes 4 Oilers 5 (so)+3.0
+0.3
Oilers 5 Red Wings 4 (so)+2.8
*+0.3
Oilers 3 Flames 2 (so)+2.4
*+0.3
Stars 2 Flames 3 (so)-2.2
*-0.2
Maple Leafs 4 Blue Jackets 3 (so)+2.2
Rangers 3 Flames 2 (so)*-1.5
Sharks 6 Oilers 5 (so)*-1.0
*-0.0
Blue Jackets 4 Capitals 5 +0.9
Sabres 5 Canucks 2 +0.9
+0.1
Panthers 6 Kings 4 +0.8
Thrashers 3 Predators 2 +0.8
Stars 2 Canadiens 3 +0.8
Senators 5 Predators 3 +0.8
Hurricanes 4 Canucks 1 +0.8
Canucks 4 Sabres 1 -0.8
-0.1
Canadiens 1 Kings 2 -0.8
Canucks 2 Devils 3 (so)*-0.7
*-0.1
Canadiens 8 Ducks 6 *+0.6
Blues 4 Senators 1 *-0.6
Rangers 5 Kings 4 (ot)*+0.6
Kings 3 Islanders 1 *-0.5
Sharks 0 Capitals 1 *+0.5
Islanders 2 Stars 3 *-0.5
Sharks 4 Bruins 3 *-0.4
Coyotes 3 Avalanche 2 *+0.4
Hurricanes 3 Thrashers 2 *+0.3
Red Wings 6 Penguins 5 (so)*+0.3
Predators 4 Rangers 3 (ot)*-0.3
Maple Leafs 0 Senators 2 *+0.3
Lightning 5 Maple Leafs 2 *+0.3
Sabres 2 Blackhawks 3 (so)-0.1
Ducks 4 Rangers 3 (ot)*-0.1
Senators 5 Avalanche 4 +0.1
Senators 3 Canucks 4 -0.1
Canucks 0 Bruins 4 +0.1
Predators 3 Wild 2 +0.1
Senators 1 Wild 4 -0.0
Blues 1 Flyers 3 *+0.0
Blue Jackets 5 Flyers 6 +0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Canucks vs Oilers-3.3*-0.1*+0.1+3.0+2.3+2.2
-0.4*-0.1*-0.0+0.4+0.3+0.3
Oilers vs Flames+2.5+2.4+2.9*-1.3*-0.4-3.3
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Oilers vs Blue Jackets+2.7+2.5*+1.1*+0.4*-0.5-3.5
+0.3+0.3+0.2*-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Blackhawks vs Oilers-3.4*-0.4*-0.6+2.1+2.3+2.7
-0.4*-0.1-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Oilers vs Kings+2.4+2.1+2.9*-0.2*-0.8-3.2
+0.4+0.3+0.3*-0.1-0.1-0.4
Oilers vs Blackhawks+2.6+1.7+2.7*+0.4*-0.4-3.4
+0.3+0.2+0.3*+0.0*-0.0-0.4
Islanders vs Oilers-3.0*-0.5*+0.3+3.1+2.3+2.0
-0.4*-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Oilers vs Wild+2.1+2.6+2.9*-1.1*-0.3-3.1
+0.4+0.4+0.4-0.2-0.2-0.5
Blackhawks vs Oilers-3.4*-0.4*-1.0+2.6+2.2+2.6
-0.4*-0.0*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Ducks vs Oilers-3.1*-0.4*-0.3+2.9+2.2+2.3
-0.4*-0.1-0.1+0.4+0.3+0.4
Predators vs Oilers-3.1*-0.1*-0.8+2.8+2.3+2.1
-0.4*+0.0*-0.1+0.4+0.3+0.3
Blue Jackets vs Oilers-3.3-0.8*-0.5+2.3+2.5+2.6
-0.4*-0.1-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Oilers vs Stars+2.5+1.9+2.3*+0.0*-0.1-3.3
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.0-0.1-0.4
Coyotes vs Oilers-3.2-0.9*-0.2+2.6+2.0+2.5
-0.4*-0.1*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Blue Jackets vs Oilers-3.2-1.0*-0.4+2.0+2.2+2.6
-0.4-0.1*-0.0+0.2+0.3+0.3
Oilers vs Coyotes+2.5+2.1+2.4*+0.0*-0.7-3.3
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.0*-0.1-0.4
Oilers vs Canucks+2.5+2.3+1.3*+0.0*-0.2-3.3
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.0*-0.0-0.4
Stars vs Oilers-3.2*-0.5*-0.3+2.5+1.8+2.5
-0.5-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.4
Oilers vs Sharks+2.4+2.3+1.7*+0.2*-0.4-3.3
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.0*-0.0-0.4
Blues vs Oilers-3.3*-0.2*+0.2+2.4+2.3+2.3
-0.4-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Avalanche vs Oilers-3.2*-0.0*-0.1+2.0+1.8+2.5
-0.4*-0.0*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Senators vs Oilers-3.1*-0.5*+0.4+2.4+2.3+2.2
-0.4*-0.1*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Wild vs Oilers-3.2*+0.6*-1.3+1.6+2.1+2.3
-0.5-0.1-0.2+0.3+0.3+0.5
Oilers vs Devils+2.2+1.9+2.7*-0.1-1.0-2.8
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.0-0.1-0.4
Avalanche vs Oilers-3.1*-0.4*-0.2+1.7+2.2+2.4
-0.4*-0.1*+0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Canucks vs Oilers-3.1*-0.2*-1.1+1.8+2.4+2.3
-0.4*-0.0*-0.1+0.2+0.3+0.3
Kings vs Oilers-3.0*-0.3*-0.8+1.8+2.4+2.3
-0.4-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Oilers vs Ducks+2.2+2.4+2.4*-0.0*-0.6-3.0
+0.3+0.3+0.3-0.0-0.1-0.4
Wild vs Oilers-3.1*-0.1*-0.5+2.3+1.9+2.4
-0.5-0.2-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.5
Penguins vs Oilers-3.0*-0.1*-0.2+2.1+2.4+2.1
-0.4*-0.1*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Capitals vs Oilers-3.1*-0.5*-0.2+2.2+1.8+2.4
-0.4-0.1*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Kings vs Oilers-3.1*+0.1*-0.4+1.7+2.2+2.3
-0.4-0.1-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Oilers vs Avalanche+2.3+2.2+1.9*-0.8*-0.4-3.0
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.0-0.1-0.4
Coyotes vs Oilers-3.0*-0.2*-0.2*+1.1+2.0+2.3
-0.4*-0.0-0.1+0.2+0.3+0.3
Oilers vs Wild+2.3+2.2+2.0*-0.9*-0.4-3.0
+0.4+0.3+0.3-0.2-0.2-0.5
Stars vs Oilers-3.0*-0.6*+0.4+2.1+2.0+2.3
-0.4*-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Oilers vs Avalanche+2.4+1.9+1.4*+0.0*-0.6-3.0
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.0*-0.0-0.4
Oilers vs Penguins+2.3+2.2+1.5*+0.4*-0.3-3.1
+0.3+0.3+0.3-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Maple Leafs vs Oilers-2.9*-0.4*-0.4+2.4+2.0+2.2
-0.4*-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Oilers vs Blues+2.3+1.8+1.9*-0.1*-0.3-3.0
+0.3+0.3+0.4-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Oilers vs Bruins+2.0+2.3+2.3*-0.8*+0.2-3.0
+0.3+0.3+0.3-0.1*-0.0-0.4
Rangers vs Oilers-2.9*-0.3*-0.0+2.3+2.1+2.1
-0.4*-0.1*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Oilers vs Flyers+2.2+1.8+1.8*-0.3*+0.2-3.0
+0.3+0.3+0.3-0.1*-0.0-0.4
Oilers vs Capitals+2.2+2.2+1.9*+0.4*-0.5-3.0
+0.3+0.3+0.3*+0.0*-0.1-0.4
Oilers vs Canucks+2.3+2.2+1.9*-0.4*-0.7-2.9
+0.3+0.3+0.2*-0.0*-0.1-0.4
Oilers vs Predators+2.3+2.0+1.8*-1.0*-0.2-2.9
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1-0.1-0.4
Oilers vs Sabres+2.1+2.1+2.3*-0.3*-0.6-2.9
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Canadiens vs Oilers-2.9*+0.0*-0.9+2.3+2.0+2.2
-0.4*-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Predators vs Oilers-2.9*-0.1*-0.3+1.5+1.9+2.2
-0.4-0.1*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Oilers finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
124-147In100121*
123359-6In99177*
122349-7In9911149*
1213410-6In9730223*
1203310-7In9433301*
1193311-6In9362510*
1183211-7In9172738*
1173212-6In83134935*
1163112-7In8015051,304*
1153113-6In6923081,659*
1143013-7In592811202,188*
1133014-6In503511402,694*
1122914-7In3839319103,173*
1112814-8In2942422303,950*
1102815-7In1743726614,269*
1092715-8In114310278104,916*
1082716-7In63713271532,500*
2615-9In638132713202,790*
1072616-8In331172519505,805*
1062617-7In1231822259106,176*
1052517-8In01718182816203,323*
2618-6In01718182816302,878*
1042518-7In01118123022702,678*
2417-9100.0%011191229236003,419*
1032418-899.97177263111106,027*
1022419-799.641542034194005,712*
1012319-898.921221434278105,222*
1002320-796.419182833163004,689*
992220-890.70704203524814,249*
982221-781.30501123232153003,686*
972121-868.403062435238103,080*
962122-751.620313343015302,523*
952022-834.210182534238102,063*
942023-718.800315313116301,568*
931923-810.40192436218101,245*
921924-74.30131731311430952*
911824-81.41825352560662*
901825-70.206153335101463*
891725-8Out1123238161364*
881625-9Out0529283250248*
871626-80.51313383313195*
861526-9Out9304713106*
851527-8Out11264418262*
841528-7Out17542935*
831428-8Out74740730*
821429-7Out36402425*
811430-6Out67333*
801431-5Out33673*
791432-4Out1003*
47-75Out1009*
Total:89.6%121710121212974321000100,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Lottery seed
Panthers 4 Oilers 2 +1.1
Oilers 2 Senators 3 +1.1
Oilers 2 Blue Jackets 5 +1.1
Thrashers 5 Oilers 3 +1.1
Flames 4 Oilers 3 +1.1
Oilers 1 Sharks 5 +1.1
Oilers 2 Kings 3 +1.1
Oilers 2 Canadiens 4 +1.1
Bruins 5 Oilers 1 +1.1
Oilers 1 Ducks 6 +1.1
Oilers 2 Coyotes 4 +1.0
Oilers 4 Maple Leafs 5 +1.0
Blues 1 Oilers 2 -0.9
Red Wings 3 Oilers 4 (so)-0.9
Oilers 7 Blackhawks 2 -0.9
Red Wings 4 Oilers 6 -0.9
Lightning 0 Oilers 4 -0.9
Flames 2 Oilers 4 -0.9
Oilers 2 Blues 0 -0.8
Oilers 4 Lightning 3 (so)-0.8
Sharks 1 Oilers 4 -0.8
Devils 1 Oilers 3 -0.8
Oilers 4 Red Wings 1 -0.8
Oilers 6 Predators 2 -0.8
Oilers 5 Panthers 3 -0.8
Flyers 0 Oilers 5 -0.8
Sabres 0 Oilers 2 -0.8
Oilers 4 Rangers 1 -0.8
Oilers 3 Stars 1 -0.8
Oilers 3 Islanders 1 -0.8
Oilers 4 Thrashers 3 -0.8
Oilers 3 Hurricanes 1 -0.8
Hurricanes 4 Oilers 5 (so)-0.7
Oilers 5 Red Wings 4 (so)-0.6
Oilers 3 Flames 2 (so)-0.6
Stars 2 Flames 3 (so)*+0.4
Maple Leafs 4 Blue Jackets 3 (so)*-0.3
Red Wings 3 Canucks 2 (ot)+0.2
Stars 1 Capitals 2 (so)*-0.2
Sharks 4 Penguins 5 (so)*+0.2
Rangers 3 Flames 2 (so)*+0.2
Avalanche 3 Blue Jackets 4 (so)*+0.2
Flames 2 Penguins 1 (ot)*+0.2
Sabres 5 Canucks 2 *-0.2
Blues 2 Bruins 3 (so)*+0.2
Lightning 3 Flames 4 (so)+0.2
Canucks 4 Sabres 1 +0.2
Maple Leafs 5 Blues 6 (so)*-0.2
Thrashers 3 Flames 4 (ot)*+0.2
Flames 2 Ducks 3 (so)*-0.2
Flyers 5 Bruins 6 (so)*-0.2
Senators 3 Canucks 4 +0.1
Hurricanes 5 Ducks 4 (so)*+0.1
Canucks 5 Blues 4 (so)-0.1
Sharks 6 Oilers 5 (so)*+0.1
Flames 3 Sabres 5 -0.1
Devils 1 Kings 2 +0.1
Islanders 4 Sabres 5 (ot)*+0.1
Sharks 1 Canucks 3 +0.1
Flames 4 Hurricanes 5 (ot)*+0.1
Penguins 3 Coyotes 1 *-0.0
Sharks 0 Capitals 1 *-0.0
Flames 3 Canucks 4 *-0.0
Ducks 3 Avalanche 1 +0.0
Blues 4 Coyotes 3 *+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wild vs Oilers+1.1+0.3+0.4-0.6-0.7-0.9
Oilers vs Wild-0.9-0.7-0.8+0.3+0.3+1.1
Oilers vs Wild-0.9-0.7-0.7*+0.4+0.3+1.0
Wild vs Oilers+1.0+0.4+0.3-0.6-0.6-0.9
Stars vs Oilers+0.9*+0.1*+0.2-0.6-0.5-0.7
Canucks vs Oilers+0.8*+0.1*+0.1-0.7-0.6-0.6
Ducks vs Oilers+0.9*+0.2+0.2-0.7-0.6-0.7
Predators vs Oilers+0.9+0.0*+0.2-0.7-0.7-0.6
Oilers vs Kings-0.7-0.6-0.6*+0.1+0.2+0.9
Capitals vs Oilers+0.9+0.2*+0.1-0.7-0.6-0.6
Kings vs Oilers+0.9+0.1*+0.2-0.5-0.7-0.7
Oilers vs Stars-0.7-0.6-0.5*+0.1+0.1+0.9
Oilers vs Penguins-0.7-0.7-0.6+0.1+0.1+0.9
Oilers vs Canucks-0.6-0.7-0.5*+0.1*+0.1+0.9
Canucks vs Oilers+0.8*+0.1+0.3-0.5-0.7-0.6
Oilers vs Flames-0.6-0.6-0.7+0.2*+0.2+0.8
Blues vs Oilers+0.9+0.1+0.1-0.6-0.6-0.6
Oilers vs Blues-0.6-0.5-0.7+0.1*+0.2+0.8
Kings vs Oilers+0.8+0.2+0.1-0.6-0.6-0.7
Oilers vs Avalanche-0.6-0.6-0.6*+0.0*+0.1+0.9
Stars vs Oilers+0.8*+0.1*+0.1-0.6-0.6-0.6
Oilers vs Sharks-0.6-0.6-0.6*+0.1*+0.1+0.9
Oilers vs Coyotes-0.6-0.6-0.6*+0.0+0.2+0.8
Oilers vs Ducks-0.7-0.6*-0.5*+0.1+0.2+0.8
Oilers vs Blue Jackets-0.6-0.6-0.5+0.1*+0.1+0.8
Blackhawks vs Oilers+0.8*+0.1*+0.1-0.6-0.6-0.6
Islanders vs Oilers+0.8+0.1+0.1-0.6-0.6-0.6
Blue Jackets vs Oilers+0.8*+0.2*+0.1-0.5-0.6-0.6
Oilers vs Blackhawks-0.7-0.5-0.5*-0.0*+0.1+0.8
Rangers vs Oilers+0.8*+0.2+0.1-0.7-0.6-0.6
Ducks vs Oilers+0.8+0.1*+0.1-0.6-0.5-0.6
Avalanche vs Oilers+0.8+0.1*+0.0-0.5-0.5-0.6
Oilers vs Capitals-0.6-0.6-0.6*-0.1+0.1+0.8
Senators vs Oilers+0.8+0.2*+0.0-0.6-0.6-0.6
Maple Leafs vs Oilers+0.8*+0.1+0.2-0.6-0.6-0.6
Coyotes vs Oilers+0.8*+0.1+0.1-0.6-0.6-0.6

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
126-147100
125368-6946
124358-7964
123359-682171
122349-7801911
1213410-6762130
1203310-7672733
1193311-660325010
1183211-752396120
1173111-838451214
1163112-73149141050
1153113-62049193070
1143013-7144522711110
1133014-6742251011210
1122914-733522173016310
1112814-8127192340175300
1102815-7017172661188601
1092715-801111329115128010
1082716-7067311031215122300
1072616-83328125817153500
1062617-711221175171878010
1052517-80016992151612151300
1042518-7001071111112171856000
1032418-807512066202110101100
1022419-743120431717161634000
1012319-821110211312221987010
1002320-71191076231915143300
992220-8007042181322187820
982221-700501011725181414410
972121-800300632215201810300
962122-720311292520189200
952022-81018322172417720
942023-700311411242415510
931923-80108517292212400
921924-701032102030211031
911824-81312262722720
901825-70251431261741
891725-8211232922103
881625-9031427252172
871626-811161830221751
861526-914242921102
851527-862137191025
841528-7929312093
831428-8310234320
821429-7432322012
811430-66733
801633-16733
791432-43367
751234-4100
47050-0100
Total:395125556666654433221110000000