How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Predators 2 Red Wings 6 -5.8
-0.6
Predators 0 Canucks 4 -5.7
-0.6
Predators 2 Stars 4 -5.6
-0.6
Predators 5 Stars 6 -5.6
-0.6
Predators 3 Flyers 5 -5.6
-0.5
Oilers 6 Predators 2 -5.5
-0.6
Red Wings 3 Predators 1 -5.5
-0.6
Blues 6 Predators 3 -5.5
-0.6
Red Wings 5 Predators 2 -5.5
-0.6
Blue Jackets 5 Predators 2 -5.4
-0.6
Senators 5 Predators 3 -5.4
-0.5
Predators 2 Ducks 3 -5.4
-0.5
Blues 4 Predators 1 -5.2
-0.5
Predators 0 Canadiens 9 -5.2
-0.5
Predators 3 Wild 5 -5.2
-0.5
Predators 3 Kings 4 -5.1
-0.5
Sabres 7 Predators 4 -5.1
-0.5
Predators 1 Flames 3 -5.0
-0.5
Ducks 2 Predators 0 -5.0
-0.5
Canucks 5 Predators 2 -5.0
-0.5
Predators 1 Bruins 4 -4.9
-0.5
Rangers 5 Predators 2 -4.9
-0.5
Thrashers 3 Predators 2 -4.7
-0.5
Predators 7 Canucks 3 +4.4
+0.4
Canucks 0 Predators 1 +4.3
+0.4
Flames 0 Predators 4 +4.3
+0.4
Predators 3 Panthers 1 +4.1
+0.4
Predators 2 Blackhawks 0 +4.1
+0.4
Panthers 4 Predators 6 +4.0
+0.4
Penguins 3 Predators 4 +3.9
+0.4
Predators 4 Rangers 3 (ot)+3.8
+0.4
Predators 3 Islanders 2 +3.8
+0.4
Predators 3 Wild 2 +3.7
+0.4
Predators 4 Devils 1 +3.6
+0.4
Bruins 3 Predators 4 (so)+3.5
+0.4
Predators 4 Red Wings 3 (so)+3.5
+0.4
Predators 6 Blues 5 (so)+2.2
+0.3
Blue Jackets 5 Islanders 4 (so)*-1.0
Blue Jackets 1 Sabres 3 +0.8
Coyotes 3 Avalanche 2 +0.8
Predators 2 Kings 3 (ot)*-0.8
*-0.1
Bruins 5 Canucks 4 +0.8
Penguins 4 Sharks 0 +0.8
Canucks 1 Canadiens 6 +0.8
Canadiens 3 Sharks 2 +0.8
Devils 1 Blues 2 -0.8
Canucks 0 Bruins 4 +0.8
Coyotes 4 Senators 6 +0.8
Penguins 2 Wild 4 -0.8
Devils 1 Oilers 3 *-0.7
Blackhawks 3 Maple Leafs 4 *+0.7
Flyers 4 Blue Jackets 3 *+0.7
+0.1
Penguins 4 Rangers 5 (ot)*-0.7
Flames 2 Islanders 1 *-0.6
Stars 3 Bruins 2 *-0.5
Canucks 3 Lightning 6 *+0.5
Maple Leafs 5 Coyotes 2 *+0.4
Flyers 1 Hurricanes 2 *-0.3
Lightning 2 Stars 3 *-0.3
Thrashers 5 Oilers 3 *+0.2
Ducks 7 Blue Jackets 4 *+0.2
Avalanche 3 Canadiens 4 *+0.2
Panthers 1 Senators 3 *+0.2
Canadiens 5 Flyers 1 *-0.2
Thrashers 1 Blue Jackets 2 *-0.0
Blues 1 Oilers 2 +0.0
Sabres 2 Blackhawks 3 (so)-0.1
Blues 3 Stars 6 +0.1
Blues 4 Senators 1 *-0.1
Blue Jackets 3 Thrashers 5 +0.1
Blues 2 Capitals 3 (so)*-0.0
Blackhawks 4 Bruins 3 (ot)*-0.0
Blue Jackets 3 Devils 4 (ot)*+0.0
Stars 4 Penguins 2 *-0.0
Flyers 2 Ducks 1 (ot)*+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sharks vs Predators-1.2*-0.3*-0.3+1.1+0.9+1.0
-0.3*-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.2+0.2
Predators vs Flames+0.8+1.1*+0.7*-0.6*-0.1-1.2
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.1*-0.1-0.3
Islanders vs Predators-1.1*-0.3*-0.6+0.9+1.1+0.8
-0.3*-0.1*-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Predators vs Coyotes+0.8+0.9+1.1*-0.3-0.5-1.0
+0.3+0.2+0.2*-0.1-0.1-0.3
Blackhawks vs Predators-1.1*-0.2*-0.1*+0.4+0.6+1.0
-0.3*-0.1*-0.0+0.1+0.2+0.2
Coyotes vs Predators-1.1*-0.3-0.9*+0.5+1.0+1.0
-0.3-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.3
Predators vs Avalanche+0.7+0.8+1.1*-0.2*-0.1-1.0
+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.3
Predators vs Sharks+0.8+1.0*+0.3*-0.3*-0.2-1.1
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.0-0.1-0.3
Blue Jackets vs Predators-1.1*-0.4*+0.1+0.8+0.5+1.0
-0.3*-0.0*-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Predators vs Sharks+1.0+0.7*+0.5*-0.5*-0.3-1.1
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.0-0.1-0.3
Flyers vs Predators-1.1*-0.2*-0.3+0.9+1.0+0.8
-0.3*-0.0*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Predators vs Blackhawks+0.8+0.6+1.0*-0.2*-0.4-1.0
+0.2+0.1+0.2-0.1*-0.1-0.3
Flames vs Predators-1.0*-0.1*-0.6+1.0+0.8+0.8
-0.3-0.1*-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Blackhawks vs Predators-1.1*-0.4*-0.4+0.9+0.5+1.0
-0.3-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Coyotes vs Predators-1.0*-0.1*-0.5+0.9+0.4+0.9
-0.3-0.1*-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Lightning vs Predators-1.0*-0.3*+0.1+0.9+0.9+0.7
-0.3*-0.1*-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Stars vs Predators-1.0*-0.3*-0.2+0.7+0.5+0.9
-0.3-0.1*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Predators vs Lightning+0.8+0.6+0.9*-0.4*-0.3-1.0
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.0*-0.0-0.3
Predators vs Blue Jackets+0.8+0.6*+0.3*-0.5*-0.1-1.0
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.1-0.1-0.3
Wild vs Predators-1.0*-0.1*-0.5+0.8+0.4+0.8
-0.3*-0.0*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Predators vs Blue Jackets+0.9+0.7*+0.3*-0.0*-0.3-1.0
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.0-0.1-0.3
Predators vs Coyotes+0.8+0.6*+0.6*-0.2*-0.3-1.0
+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.0-0.3
Kings vs Predators-0.9-0.5*-0.5+0.7+0.6+0.8
-0.3*-0.1*-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Avalanche vs Predators-0.9*-0.2*-0.6+0.8+0.6+0.8
-0.3-0.0-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Avalanche vs Predators-0.9*-0.3*-0.3+0.7+0.6+0.8
-0.3-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Predators vs Avalanche+0.7+0.7+0.7-0.7*-0.1-0.9
+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.0-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Predators finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
125480-0In1008
110374-7In50502
109375-6In1001
108387-3In252525254*
107377-4In5038138*
106367-5In17171733176*
105357-6In122712311926*
104358-5In813182530840*
103348-698.5%32522022208265*
102349-5In31829332412101*
101339-696.12161826291531178*
100329-788.51341930231010253*
993210-680.452112835173392*
983110-765.4031622342681573*
973111-649.5221432331440841*
963011-731.21072336247101,141*
953012-616.900214323314401,559*
942912-77.40162436249102,002*
932913-62.900315313415202,498*
922813-71.20019253523602,985*
912814-60.500317353112103,672*
902714-70.10210303619304,270*
892715-6Out15203929704,827*
882615-7Out021435361305,387*
872616-6Out01828422105,838*
862516-7Out00421443015,953*
852416-8Out0213434023,779*
2315-10Out213424132,553*
842417-7Out018375046,250*
832418-6Out05305783,609*
2216-10Out005305682,535*
822318-7Out032362125,889*
812218-8Out011765175,507*
802219-7Out11264234,910*
792119-8Out0763304,453*
782120-7Out0456403,769*
772121-6Out350473,274*
762021-7Out0145542,686*
751921-8Out137622,125*
741922-7Out032681,640*
731923-6Out26741,275*
721823-7Out02179957*
711824-6Out1585685*
701724-7Out1090488*
691624-8Out595367*
681625-7Out595240*
671525-8Out298130*
661526-7Out59595*
651426-8Out69462*
29-64Out10092*
Total:2.7%0000001135812203416100,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Lottery seed
Predators 2 Red Wings 6 +1.2
Blues 6 Predators 3 +1.2
Blue Jackets 5 Predators 2 +1.2
Predators 0 Canucks 4 +1.2
Red Wings 3 Predators 1 +1.2
Red Wings 5 Predators 2 +1.2
Predators 5 Stars 6 +1.1
Predators 2 Stars 4 +1.1
Oilers 6 Predators 2 +1.1
Predators 0 Canadiens 9 +1.1
Senators 5 Predators 3 +1.1
Sabres 7 Predators 4 +1.1
Predators 2 Ducks 3 +1.1
Predators 3 Flyers 5 +1.1
Blues 4 Predators 1 +1.1
Predators 3 Wild 5 +1.1
Predators 1 Bruins 4 +1.1
Thrashers 3 Predators 2 +1.1
Canucks 5 Predators 2 +1.1
Predators 3 Kings 4 +1.1
Rangers 5 Predators 2 +1.1
Ducks 2 Predators 0 +1.0
Predators 1 Flames 3 +1.0
Predators 7 Canucks 3 -0.9
Canucks 0 Predators 1 -0.9
Predators 3 Panthers 1 -0.9
Predators 2 Blackhawks 0 -0.9
Flames 0 Predators 4 -0.8
Panthers 4 Predators 6 -0.8
Penguins 3 Predators 4 -0.8
Predators 3 Islanders 2 -0.8
Predators 3 Wild 2 -0.8
Predators 4 Devils 1 -0.8
Predators 4 Rangers 3 (ot)-0.8
Bruins 3 Predators 4 (so)-0.8
Predators 4 Red Wings 3 (so)-0.7
Predators 6 Blues 5 (so)-0.6
Hurricanes 4 Oilers 5 (so)*+0.2
Blue Jackets 5 Islanders 4 (so)+0.2
Blues 2 Bruins 3 (so)*+0.2
Maple Leafs 4 Hurricanes 3 (so)*+0.2
Sabres 2 Blackhawks 3 (so)+0.2
Oilers 5 Red Wings 4 (so)+0.2
Bruins 5 Blues 4 (so)*+0.2
Red Wings 3 Coyotes 2 (so)*-0.2
Bruins 1 Sharks 2 (ot)*+0.2
Blues 2 Sabres 3 (ot)*-0.2
Red Wings 3 Canucks 2 (ot)-0.2
Maple Leafs 4 Blue Jackets 3 (so)-0.2
Rangers 3 Flames 2 (so)*-0.2
Red Wings 6 Penguins 5 (so)*+0.2
Predators 2 Kings 3 (ot)+0.2
Rangers 2 Red Wings 1 -0.1
Bruins 3 Blue Jackets 0 -0.1
Blues 0 Sharks 2 -0.1
Islanders 4 Red Wings 5 *+0.1
Penguins 3 Blackhawks 1 -0.1
Blues 1 Kings 3 *-0.1
Flyers 5 Capitals 4 (ot)*-0.1
Oilers 4 Red Wings 1 +0.0
Stars 2 Sabres 3 *-0.0
Bruins 2 Blackhawks 1 +0.0
Bruins 3 Red Wings 4 *+0.0
Canucks 2 Devils 3 (so)*-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Islanders vs Predators+0.6+0.1*+0.1-0.4-0.5-0.5
Predators vs Maple Leafs-0.5-0.4-0.4*+0.2+0.2+0.6
Predators vs Flames-0.5-0.4-0.4*+0.1*+0.1+0.6
Coyotes vs Predators+0.6*+0.1*+0.2-0.4-0.4-0.5
Predators vs Lightning-0.5-0.4-0.5*+0.1*+0.1+0.6
Coyotes vs Predators+0.6+0.1*+0.2-0.4-0.4-0.5
Sharks vs Predators+0.6*+0.1*+0.1-0.5-0.4-0.4
Predators vs Coyotes-0.5-0.4-0.5*+0.1*+0.1+0.6
Flyers vs Predators+0.6+0.1*+0.1-0.5-0.5-0.4
Maple Leafs vs Predators+0.6*+0.1+0.2-0.4-0.4-0.5
Blackhawks vs Predators+0.6*+0.1+0.1-0.3-0.4-0.5
Blue Jackets vs Predators+0.6*+0.1*+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.5
Devils vs Predators+0.6*+0.1+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.4
Kings vs Predators+0.5*+0.1*+0.1-0.5-0.4-0.4
Lightning vs Predators+0.6+0.1+0.2-0.4-0.4-0.5
Predators vs Capitals-0.4-0.4-0.5*+0.1+0.1+0.6
Predators vs Sharks-0.5-0.4-0.4*+0.1*+0.1+0.6
Predators vs Avalanche-0.4-0.4-0.4+0.1*+0.1+0.6
Predators vs Coyotes-0.4-0.4-0.4+0.2*+0.1+0.6
Predators vs Sharks-0.4-0.4-0.4*+0.0*+0.2+0.6
Flames vs Predators+0.6+0.1*+0.2-0.4-0.4-0.5
Wild vs Predators+0.5*+0.1+0.1-0.5-0.4-0.4
Avalanche vs Predators+0.6*+0.1+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.4
Stars vs Predators+0.6+0.1+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.4
Predators vs Avalanche-0.4-0.4-0.4*+0.2*+0.1+0.6
Sharks vs Predators+0.5+0.1*+0.2-0.4-0.4-0.5
Avalanche vs Predators+0.6+0.1*+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.4
Predators vs Blackhawks-0.4-0.3-0.5*+0.2*+0.1+0.5
Predators vs Thrashers-0.4-0.4-0.4*+0.1*+0.1+0.6
Predators vs Oilers-0.4-0.4-0.4+0.2*+0.0+0.6
Blackhawks vs Predators+0.6*+0.1*+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.4
Predators vs Penguins-0.4-0.4-0.4*+0.1*+0.2+0.5
Predators vs Blue Jackets-0.4-0.3-0.3+0.1+0.1+0.5
Predators vs Blues-0.4-0.4-0.3*+0.2*+0.1+0.5
Hurricanes vs Predators+0.5+0.1+0.1-0.3-0.4-0.4
Kings vs Predators+0.6*+0.0*+0.1-0.3-0.4-0.4
Predators vs Oilers-0.4-0.4-0.3*+0.1*+0.1+0.5

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
125480-08813
110374-75050
109375-6100
108387-325252525
107377-450132513
106367-5171717171717
105357-61281912274154
104358-58853158182558
103348-63618261412917382
102349-53414218141922212
101339-6221311752121812231
100329-71130451417131841010
993210-65211011162791730
983110-70310551621132492
973111-602022121417251951
963011-7100751823261541
953012-6000221216282412310
942912-7011682328229200
932913-60002313262819720
922813-70011718262715510
912814-60000292030241130
902714-7004122529208200
892715-601516272815610
882615-7000282130251020
872616-601413273118610
862516-70271931281120
852416-80031226342050
842417-700171935271010
832418-600313293517200
822318-701724372560
812218-80031536331110
802219-7011030381830
792119-80521422650
782120-702153733111
772121-60193139182
762021-7052541254
751921-821939327
741922-70113373811
731923-618314119
721823-704254724
711824-602194732
701724-7294643
691624-8183754
681625-7062865
671525-843066
661526-722573
651426-831879
641427-72179
631428-6793
621328-7100
611228-8991
29-60100
Total:0000000000000011123457911131413952